It’s finals footy time and we’ve been on a red hot run so we’re pumped to preview the two blockbuster games this weekend. Last week we tipped Tom Gilbert to score the first try at $91 after he was named to start on an edge an hour before the game. In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best NRL Finals value plays across try scorer & player performance markets. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!
Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!
Casually hitting at $91 FTS play in the #NRLFinals#NRL #rugbyleague #sportsbet #NRLSharksCowboys https://t.co/f3nV1l75mO
— Wicky (@wickyai) September 10, 2022
Sharks v Rabbitohs
Saturday 17th September, 8pm
Try Scorer Tips
Toby Rudolf FTS @ $81 on Neds
Royce Hunt FTS @ $67 on Neds
Braden Uele FTS2H @ $67 on Neds & ATS @ $11 on Topsport
Wade Graham – 1st or 2nd try @ $26 on Pointsbet
Cody Walker ATS @ $3.60 on Neds
Campbell Graham ATS @ $4 on Pointsbet
1st, 2nd or 3rd try – Cam Murray @ $21 & Blayke Brailey @ $16 on TAB
Toby Rudolf scored an inspiring try against the Cowboys in the Sharks’ loss last weekend. That was the second try of the game but we’re hoping he can get over for the 1st try this weekend and think the $81 price is great value on Neds. Royce Hunt looks great close to the try line and we think the price on offer for both the Sharks’ starting props are really good value. Braden Uele will most likely come off the bench so we think the best way to play him is the $67 on offer for him to score the 1st try in the second half. He’s already done this 4 times in 79 games and is in the next rung behind Josh Papali’i in terms of try scoring strike rate for Josh Papali’i. We also like the $11 for him to score anytime but suggest a smaller stake than usual with the Sharks’ pack back to full strength.
Campbell Graham to score a try anytime at $4 is our model’s favourite pick of the weekend and we can’t help but back it too. It’s 141% better than his career strike rate would suggest the price should be and he has been slowly improving over the last few weeks. Cody Walker is priced 112% higher than our model’s suggested odds and 142% higher than his career strike rate would suggest at $3.60 to score a try anytime on Neds. He always lifts for the big games so we love this price for him to go over anytime.
Wade Graham starts on the left edge for the Sharks before moving to the middle when Wilton comes on. The $51 on offer for him to score the 1st try is a great price – our model has him at $38. We’ve suggested playing it at $26 for him to score the 1st or 2nd try on Pointsbet. Murray & Brailey are a great price on TAB to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try. Murray’s FTS price if you went by his career strike rate would be less than the $21 we’re getting for him to score any of the first 3 tries!
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
There are quite a few value players below $11,000. Braden Uele is priced at $9,650 and should be a good pick up now that Royce Hunt is out. This should mean 5-10 more minutes for him and we know he’s capable of breaking the line so he could easily surpass the 33 points our model has him projected for. Wade Graham is our standout value pick. Priced at $10,080 and projected to score 38 points, he’s rated 10/10 in our value ratings. He’ll likely start the game on the left edge and then get some time in the middle when Teig Wilton takes over the edge role.
There are ten players with a ceiling range (average of their 3 highest DFS scores in 2022) above 70 in this contest. Similar to last night’s game, our recommendation would be to think about what style of game you think it will be and which team is likely to win. If you think it will be a tight affair, Cook, Murray & McInness especially look like great options. All three are capable of breaking the line and we can expect them to have a big tackle count in an elimination final. If you think the Sharks will do well – the right side combination of Hynes and Ramien would be the way to start building your lineup. And if you think the Rabbitohs can continue their run through the finals, then Walker, Latrell & Alex Johnston would be the way to go.
Our suggestion would be to go with a couple of value options in the Sharks forward pack given Royce Hunt is out. Braden Uele & Teig Wilton would be our picks. Then Cam McInness out of the higher priced options paired with Walker, Latrell & Johnston. There’s enough room in the salary cap to add Tevita Tatola to complete your line up. He’s shown his try scoring ability in 2022 and has a ceiling range of 79 so we love the upside he offers too.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
"Shaun Lane, Will Penisini, Isaiah Papali’i and Tom Opacic. Parramatta’s edge backrower and centre combinations throw a lot of offloads. All four average over 1.2 offloads each per game." @JasonNRL #NRLFinals Week 2 Preview 👇👇https://t.co/eHs2VmS0wX pic.twitter.com/r0yNDiKXYV
— Wicky (@wickyai) September 14, 2022
Eels v Raiders
Friday 16th September, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Tips
Josh Papali’i First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $71 & Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $10 on Sportsbet
Corey Harawira-Naera FTS @ $51 & ATS @ $7.75 on Neds
Corey Horsburgh & Emre Guler 1st Try Scorer 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $81 on TAB & LTS Team @ $41 on Bet365
Hudson Young ATS @ $3.60 on Neds & Sportsbet
Joseph Tapine 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $26 & LTS @ $67 on TAB
Jack Wighton ATS @ $5.50 on TAB
Shaun Lane 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12 on TAB
Hudson Young has scored in 12/23 games in 2022 and is in line for a Kangaroos jersey at the end of this year. His partnership with Jack Wighton on the Raiders’ left edge will be crucial for their chances of making it through to play the Cowboys next week. We love Young’s price based on his record in 2022 and Wighton’s price is 125% better than the next best available and almost 150% higher than what it would be if you based it off his career strike rate.
We say this almost every week but Papali’i has the best try scoring strike rate for a middle forward in the NRL. So it’s no surprise we love the $71 & $10 for FTS & ATS respectively. Joseph Tapine has just won the Mal Meninga Medal for the Raiders’ best player this year and we think the best way to play this one is to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try and then last try scorer as that’s when he’ll be on the field. With Adam Elliott missing, we are hoping that Corey Harawira-Naera starts on the right edge. If he does, the $51 & $7.75 for FTS & ATS respectively is an amazing price. Even if he plays in the middle, he may play part of the game on the edge (as he has been) so we love this as a play with big upside.
Corey Horsburgh & Emre Guler have been in great form and we love the $81 on offer for them to score the first try in the 2nd half. They likely won’t be on at the end of the game but the $41 for them to score the Raiders’ last try is also worth a smaller stake play. They have both shown their ability to look threatening near the try line over the last couple of seasons and we think the price on offer is good value as they’ll be fresh and raring to go early in the 2nd half. Lane has been in great for Parra and being on Dylan Brown’s left edge we think this is a great price for him to score any of the first three tries. Alternatively you can play Lane ATS @ $5.25 on TAB which is around 20% higher than our model and most other bookies would suggest he should be priced at.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Waqa Blake had a night to forget up against the Panthers last weekend but he’s great value against the Raiders this week being priced at $9k. Reed Mahoney & Corey Harawira-Naera are the two players that are rated 10/10 in our value ratings when looking at their projected scores and their price on Draftstars for the $15,000 contest. CHN takes the starting role for Adam Elliott who is out injured. His role is uncertain – but he will likely get around 25 minutes on an edge and the same in the middle. He’s a great hole runner so we think he’s genuinely a great pick tonight. Reed Mahoney has had some relatively low DFS scores over the last few weeks but scored 59 against the Panthers last weekend. Honestly, this was no surprise. In tight finals games, he was always going to be relied on to make a large amount of tackles and will crack 60 points if he has one big attacking play as well.
There are ten players with a ceiling range (average of their 3 highest DFS scores in 2022) over 70. We think the best way to think about who to start in your lineup would be to think about who you think will win and what style of game it will be. Mitchell Moses plays on the Eels’ right edge with Isaiah Papali’i, Dylan Brown plays on their left edge with Shaun Lane. Josh Papali’i, Ryan Matterson & Joseph Tapine will likely play big minutes in an elimination final. If you think it’ll be a close game – we would recommend choosing two or all three out of Josh Papali’i, Matterson or Tapine. If you think the Eels will win then pick one of their edge combinations. If you think the Raiders will win – we would go with Young, Wighton and Jamal Fogarty.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
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