It’s finals footy time and we’ve been on a red hot run so we’re pumped to preview the four blockbuster games this weekend. Last week we tipped Jack Bird to score the first try at $41 as well as a few anytime try scorer plays including Hudson Young & Briton Nikora who will be playing this weekend. In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best NRL Finals value plays across try scorer & player performance markets. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!
Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!
Casually hitting at $91 FTS play in the #NRLFinals#NRL #rugbyleague #sportsbet #NRLSharksCowboys https://t.co/f3nV1l75mO
— Wicky (@wickyai) September 10, 2022
Roosters v Rabbitohs
Sunday 11th September, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Tips
Tevita Tatola FTS/LTS @ $101 on Bet365
Cam Murray FTS @ $51 on Neds
Sam Walker 1st or 2nd try @ $15 on Pointsbet
Connor Watson FTS2H @ $51 on TAB
Lachlan Ilias ATS @ $7.75 on Sportsbet
Murray is priced at almost 3 times his historical strike rate at scoring the 1st try in an NRL game. We know that’s just based on his career and his model odds are much higher, but in a clutch finals game we love the $51 on offer for Murray to score first against the Roosters. Connor Watson went over first in the 2nd half earlier in the season at $101 for us so we are a bit biased here but we love his running style and tackle breaking ability. We think the $51 on offer for him to score the 1st try against the Rabbitohs’ bench forwards is a great price.
Tevita Tatola has scored 4 tries in 2022. We absolutely love the $101 on offer for him to score the 1st/Last try in this game. Sam Walker has shown his try scoring capabilities so far in his career, scoring in 15 of 46 career games so far. He’s priced at $23 or less on most other bookies but we’ve found him at $31 to score 1st on Pointsbet. We’ve suggested playing it safe and getting on him to score the 1st or 2nd try at $15.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves has been in great form in recent weeks for the Roosters and we think he’s great value at $10,550 in this contest. Our model’s projected score makes him a 9/10 in our value ratings and even with their stacked pack we think he’ll deliver against the Rabbitohs. Drew Hutchison is also a good value pickup at $9k. Even if he doesn’t quite get to the 34 points our model has him projected for, with so many guns priced around $20k you do need to save some money somewhere.
There are 8 players with a ceiling range (average of their 3 highest DFS scores in 2022) in this contest. The Roosters will miss Joey Manu but they still have James Tedesco at fullback who has the highest ceiling range in this contest. We think he’s a must-have in this contest with no Manu. He’s been in great form and he should get even more opportunities to wrack up DFS points with Joey Manu missing. The other pick we really like is Nat Butcher. Defending on the Roosters’ right edge up against the Rabbitohs’ favoured left side, he’ll likely hit his projected score of 49 just in base stats. And let’s not forget he scored 90 points 3 weeks ago when he was amongst the tries too.
We think Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker are fade options in this contest. Even if the Rabbitohs can compete or upset the Roosters, Cam Murray and Damien Cook are likely to have to play a huge role. We would rather pick them in your Rabbitohs’ favoured lineups than the more unpredictable Mitchell and Walker.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Panthers v Eels
Friday 9th September, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Tips
Viliame Kikau First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $17 on Playup
Raegan Campbell-Gillard FTS @ $101 on Sportsbet
Maika Sivo FTS/LTS @ $12 on TAB
We’ve had a few weeks of SGMs with anytime try scorer picks doing really well but now with finals footy we’re expecting lower totals and much tighter games so we’ve leaned towards more FTS/LTS plays this weekend. Kikau’s historical strike rate for scoring the 1st try in games converted to betting odds would be $13.33. We’re getting $17 on Playup which we think is a great price for the well rested Kikau on the lethal left edge for the Panthers. Historical odds are purely just based off past performance so it isn’t the best indicator (our model odds take lines, totals and much more into consideration) but Sivo’s historical odds would be $7.90 so we also love the $12 on offer for him to score the first or last try.
There are a few higher odds FTS plays we weighed up but we’ve landed on RCG at $101 to score the first try on Sportsbet. This one is based moreso on a hunch rather than the data. Coming up against his old side in a crunch match, we think RCG is set for a big performance. We wouldn’t tip this at anything less than $91, but $101 seems a great price for a prop who has a reasonable try scoring strike rate in a game that should be played predominantly through the middle.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
With only four NRL games this weekend, the Draftstars prize pools are higher than usual. The $15,000 contest for this blockbuster game should be an intriguing one. Both teams are at full strength and both benches have one utility (Kenny & Arthur). Looking at our value ratings, Brian To’o & Reed Mahoney are standout picks. After looking at our model’s projected scores for them and their price, we have to agree. Mahoney’s had a few quiet weeks but as we’re predicting a low scoring game we think he can comfortably exceed his projected score of 48. Brian To’o is a base stats beast and at $11,430 all he needs to do is run his 200+ run metres and if he does score a try it could elevate you into the top tier of teams in this contest.
There are 10 players with a ceiling range (average of their 3 highest scores in 2022) over 70 points in this contest. If you agree with us and think this will be a low scoring contest then it makes sense to look at which players would do well in a game that’s reliant on base stats rather than big attacking plays. The middle forwards stand out here. Fisher-Harris, Ryan Matterson & Isaah Yeo. Even though he’s the most expensive pick out of the three, Isaah Yeo is our must-have pick for this game. He’ll have his hands on the ball in good ball sets and get through a load of defence. Of the other two, we prefer Fisher-Harris to Matterson only because we’re more confident of him getting more minutes whereas Matterson has been starting off the bench for Niukore in recent weeks.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
Reed Mahoney Most Tackles @ $2.10 on Neds. This group includes Mahoney and Koroisau as the favourites with Yeo & Papali’i. Koroisau has been benched so Mahoney will likely be the only 80 minute player in the middle of the field in the group so we think this is an excellent value play.
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Storm v Raiders
Saturday 10th September, 5.40pm
Try Scorer Tips
Felise Kaufusi 1st or 2nd try scorer @ $21 on Pointsbet
Joseph Tapine FTS/LTS @ $71-81 on TAB/Sportsbet
Josh Papali’i FTS @ $67 on Neds
Emre Guler & Corey Horsburgh FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $81 on TAB
Adam Elliott FTS @ $67 (Playup) + 2nd TS & LTS @ $81 (TAB)
Corey Harawira-Naera LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Felise Kaufusi’s price is around $29-34 at most other bookies and also his career strike rate & our model’s projected odds. The $41 for him to score the first try is a great price but we’ve tried to make it less risky and chosen to tip the $21 for him to score either the 1st or 2nd try. This will be aided if Jahrome Hughes returns for the Storm on their right edge. Corey Harawira-Naera has been playing on the right edge in the second half in recent weeks for the Raiders. We love the $34 on offer for him to score the last try as he’s a lethal hole runner.
We’ve almost named the whole Raiders forward pack as good value plays here but we’re confident we’ve picked the right plays to find the best value. We’ve tipped Papali’i to score a try anytime successfully a couple of times this season already, Guler almost scored the last try last week at $81 and we’ve successfully tipped Elliott FTS earlier this season also. And Tapine has been in career-best form in 2022. Papali’i, Tapine & Elliott are likely to start so we like them to score the 1st, 2nd or last tries. Guler and Horsburgh at $81 are a great price considering the form they’ve been in also.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Felise Kaufusi and Tom Starling are our two value picks for this contest. Starling should get more than 50 minutes even if he starts off the bench but a finals game should his style of play. If the Raiders get on top in the second half he’s always around the big Raiders pack looking for an offload. If the Storm are on top, he’ll wrack up a big tackle count in what’s expected to be a rain affected game. Kaufusi always wracks up a big tackle count in Origin games and we’re expecting this game to be of a similar intensity and style. Cooper Johns has been left out of the Storm side so Jahrome Hughes will almost definitely take his place in the Storm side – which will be great for Kaufusi’s attacking game also.
There are 9 players with a ceiling range (average of their 3 highest DFS scores in 2022) over 70 in this contest. Cam Munster has a ceiling range 10 points higher than the next best player. He’s also coming off an 86 in a loss to the Eels. We think he’s the standout pick in this contest. Our next two suggested picks should be relatively low owned. Jack Wighton will be fresh after being rested last weekend and Hudson Young’s form has been so good he might be in the Kangaroos’ squad at the end of the season. If the Raiders are going to win, these two will have to score tries or at least throw the last pass for a couple of tries up against the Storm’s feeble right edge. With Hughes returning from a calf niggle, the explosiveness of the Raiders’ left edge should have a noticeable advantage here and we think Wighton and Young will be a great starting point for your lineup.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Murray is one of the best trigger runners in the NRL with his ability to hit the line and produce a quick play-the-ball ahead of a lethal long-side shift to the edge. Meanwhile, Radley is excellent one off the ruck. He hits the ball at pace and looks to play teammates onto isolated defenders in yardage.
Check out Jason Oliver’s “Your Edge” previewing Week 1 of the NRL Finals here.
Sharks v Cowboys
Saturday 10th September, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Tips
Val Holmes ATS @ $3.75 on Bet365
Wade Graham FTS @ $51 on Neds
Luciano Leilua FTS/LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Tom Gilbert FTS2H @ $91 on Sportsbet
Royce Hunt FTS @ $67 on Neds
Braden Uele & Griffin Neame FTS2H @ $51 on Topsport
Uele has scored the first try in the 2nd half 4 times in 78 games. Neame has done it twice in 25 games. We absolutely love either of them for the FTS2H market as long as they are $45 or above. Our model loves Wade Graham and Holmes for the markets above and we can’t disagree. Holmes is coming off a hat-trick last week and we think the $3.75 is a great price for him to get over anytime against the Sharks. Hunt & Gilbert have both shown their abilities to score tries in 2022. Gilbert will be playing in the middle but there is a small chance he plays on the edge for a part of the game and the $91 is significantly higher than what he’s priced at on other sites. Luciano Leilua’s historical strike rate converted to betting odds and his price on most other bookies is under $30. We’ve found him at $41 to score the first/last try on Bet365 and we think it’s an incredibly good value play.
You can find your own NRL value plays on our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Jason Taumalolo and Luciano Leilua are our two favourite value picks for this contest. Both are priced under $14k and although they haven’t hit any big scores in recent weeks, we love love the upside they offer for their price with mid 60s ceiling ranges. They also both have a strong running game that can create a big attacking play out of nothing. There are 9 players with a ceiling range over 70 points in this contest. Hynes, Talakai and Holmes are a clear top three here although Talaki has only scored 1 try in the last couple of months and has generally been scoring poorly so we don’t think he’s a great option. Hynes and Holmes both scored 90s last week but we think Holmes is the clear standout pick here being priced $10k less than Hynes. The other player we like in this contest is Reece Robson. He is priced over $20k, however, he’s coming off a 78 and has a ceiling range of 75. He’ll likely wrack up a lot of tackles given it should be a tightly contested finals game. But we think his ability to break the line and score tries makes him a great pick.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
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