In this article we will go through the best way to find value across try scorer markets if you’re looking to bet on the NRL. Using a combination of our statistical model’s projected odds, each player’s historical strike rate & ‘market value’ we’ll help you identify the best value plays and which site to find the best odds on. We do a weekly preview article & ‘Punter’s Preview’ article which you can find in our content section here. If you like looking through the data to find the best value plays yourself, our odds comparison tool is here. And if you want to look at each player’s try scorer stats since 2016, then you can check out our player cards and filter through the data yourself here!
Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!
General advice before getting started
Let’s get started. We’ll use Game 2 of the 2022 State of Origin series as a guide. The two main markets we target are ‘first try scorer’ & ‘anytime try scorer’. This is because we have statistical models built for these two markets. These models use stats including each player’s attacking & try scoring stats, venue historical stats, line & totals from betting markets & much more. Our models definitely aren’t perfect, we suggest using them as a guide to find value rather than betting on the model’s picks blindly. For example, the model will always mis-price rookies & middle forwards. Eg. if a Warriors rookie half is playing up against the Panthers, as there isn’t enough data our model unfortunately will ignore the line/totals etc and say that half is extremely likely to score which is obviously not the case. And for middle forwards, their historical stats aren’t taken into consideration as much as we think they should be. Eg. Josh Papali’i is the best middle forward in the game for his try scoring strike rate, but his model odds are sometimes similar to players like Jordan McLean. One to be wary of, but we do the hard work for you in our Punter’s Preview article to identify the best value and we’ll outline how to use the other filters to sort through and the best value regardless.
What is model value and how can I use it?
Model value is the best odds for that player across the bookmaker sites we have available on our page/what odds our model thinks that player should be.
An example of this is Daly Cherry-Evans in Game 2 of State of Origin. The best odds for him are $6.75 on Sportsbet. Our model thinks his odds should be $5.12. Therefore his ‘model value’ is 132% and we would strongly suggest this as an excellent value play. Sorting by model odds can give you a quick snapshot on some of the best plays for that game or round according to our predictive model.
What is historical value and how can I use it?
Historical value is the best odds for that player across the bookmaker sites we have available on our page/that player’s record for scoring a try/scoring the first try.
An example of this is Cam Murray in State of Origin Game 2. The best odds available for him to score the first try are $34. If you converted his career strike rate of scoring the first try to betting odds it would be $16. In his case, he usually plays at lock in the NRL and will play on the edge for part of the game in Origin. So this would be an excellent value play.
Historical odds don’t take into consideration the line/total, team/opponent, venue etc so you need to be wary of blindly following them. An example here is Ben Hunt. He usually plays in the halves at NRL level so even though he’s the best value player if you sort by historical value, he’s not actually great value as he’ll be playing at hooker for Queensland.
What is market value and how can I use it?
Market value is the best odds for that player across the bookmaker sites we have available on our page/the 2nd best odds available across the bookmakers we’ve listed.
An example from State of Origin Game 2 is Tino Faasuamaleaui. You can see his best odds are $9.50 on Sportsbet. The second best odds available for him are $7 on Neds. Therefore his 136% for market value helps us identify that a certain bookmaker has potentially mis-priced him.
In the first try scorer dropdown, you can see Junior Paulo is priced at $81 on TAB compared to $67 or less. Obviously he’s named on the bench so you wouldn’t bet on him to score the first try. But this helps us identify that he could be a good price for a potential second half first try scorer bet.
What other columns can I sort by to help identify the best value plays?
Sorting by model, historical & market value is the easiest and quickest way to identify any opportunities to bet on first/anytime try scorer odds the bookmakers have clearly gotten wrong. But if you don’t mind having a small play on players who are say $51 or higher, another thing you can do is sort by ‘best odds’ and look at all the middle forwards who are priced up to $201. If you watch most games and have a good feel for which middle forwards look likely to score then this can be a fun way to identify players who are say $81 and might have orange lights (value numbers between 101-124) for model, historical or market value but you think they’re good value.
If you prefer to bet on wingers or centres and think about it more from a team or an edge v edge matchup perspective, you can always sort the other way for ‘best odds’. This will show you all the most noted try scorers across a round of NRL to see which backs you may want to include in your same game multis etc.
If you have any questions about how it all works, feel free to join our chat on Discord or reach out to us on social media. If you enjoyed reading our article, check out our content or free data tools.
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