Punter’s Preview NRL Round 3 2023

Punter’s Preview NRL Round 3 2023

Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 3 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for try scorer markets in the NRL & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round. Everything on our site is free – whether you want to join our free NRL Supercoach or NRL Fantasy leagues ($500 up for grabs), join our Discord chat or access any of our data tools you can do it all for free here.

We nailed Addin-Fonua Blake at $101 to score the last try and Stefano Utoikamanu to score a try at $10.50 in Round 2! If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!

Bulldogs v Wests Tigers

Sunday 19th March, 4.05pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Stefano Utoikamanu FTS @ $101 & ATS @ $14 on Sportsbet

David Klemmer FTS @ $151 on Neds

Adam Doueihi FTS @ $31 on Neds

NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

Update Sat 18/3 – Stefano Utoikamanu scored the last try of the game last weekend against the Knights. We had included the ATS play at $10.50 in last week’s Punter’s Preview and our new feature in the odds comparison tool that let’s you see the best price for last try scorer markets would have let you know he was good value to score the last try at $51! He’s now at $81 for FTS on TAB & Sportsbet which we still love. And $13 for ATS which is still great value. For reference – he’s scored a try in one of every 5 NRL games and has already scored a try in the trials and last weekend in 2023!

Adam Doueihi has looked like the Tigers’ main threat in their two losses so far this season. He’s not great value compared to our model or other bookies but we love the $31 on offer for him to score first. He has looked threatening and with Laurie and Papali’i missing, we think if the Tigers are going to score it has to go through him.

David Klemmer at $151 for FTS is purely a numbers play. He’s not a noted try scorer but coming up against his old side at Belmore and off two frustrating losses, we just love the huge number for Klem to get over early.

Raiders v Sharks

Sunday 19th March, 6.15pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Braden Uele 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $67 & ATS @ $8.75 on TAB

Corey Harawira-Naera ATS @ $7 on TAB

Joseph Tapine 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $81 on TAB

Royce Hunt FTS2H @ $67 on TAB

NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

Update Sat 18/3 – Corey Harawira-Naera should play most of the game on the edge, even though he’s named at lock. We covered this in last week’s Punter’s Preview and think he’s still really good value at $6 on TAB.

Joseph Tapine has been crunched in by TAB for most markets in the last couple of days. He’s still $26 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try though. We love this play as we expect him to have a big first spell with Josh Papali’i still missing for the Raiders and being 0-2 to start 2023. Unfortunately that’s the only way to play Tapine at a good price.

Uele & Hunt are strong ball runners in an impressive Sharks pack. Uele has been named to start to start and Hunt on the bench. Luckily the 1st, 2nd & LTS prices are still available for Uele and FTS2H @ $67 is still available for Hunt. Look out for final team lists – if Hunt starts and Uele is benched unfortunately these bets will be very unlikely to come off. Our free Discord channel will be on top of it!

If you want to know how to best use the odds comparison tool then check out the article where we explain our suggestions here.

Sea Eagles v Eels

Thursday 16th March, 8pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Josh Aloiai FTS @ $91 & ATS @ $15 on Sportsbet

Daly Cherry-Evans FTS @ $31 & ATS @ $5.75 on Sportsbet

Haumole Olakau’atu 1st, 2nd or 3rd TS @ $10 & ATS @ $4 on TAB

NRL Round 3 Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Round 3 Odds Comparison Tool

Update 16/3 – Josh Aloiai gets ‘three green lights’ in our odds comparison tool – being clear value at $81 compared to what the price should be if you look at our model, his career strike rate and other bookies.

Daly Cherry-Evans also has three green lights for his anytime try scorer price (now $5.40 on Sportsbet). As an added bonus – he’ll be running at the Eels left side edge with Bryce Cartwright and is coming off a hat-trick in a dominant Round 1 performance.

Haumole Olakau’atu is still great value at $4 to score a try anytime on TAB. He’ll be next to DCE on the Sea Eagles’ right edge so we love the matchup and the price here. His odds for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try have now come into $8 which is still reasonable value.

NRL Draftstars – $15,000 contest

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

Our Pick – Haumole Olakau’atu @ $19,210. He’ll be on the right edge for Manly with Cherry-Evans and running at Bryce Cartwright’s left edge. We love the matchup here but he’s also an extremely strong ball runner that scores tries for fun. In an improved Sea Eagles outfit playing at Brooky, we think he’ll be a relatively low owned option with huge upside.

Fade Option – Tom Trbojevic @ $17,160. Tom Trbojevic playing at Brooky. What’s not to love? Well, he struggled to run at 100% in their dominant win against the Bulldogs in Round One. He’s unlikely to be as involved as he was in his breakout year in 2021. And they’re up against a desperate Eels outfit who are 0-2 to start 2023. With options like Cherry-Evans, Olakau’atu, Moses & Brown all available we think there’s better value elsewhere.

Team Composition – We think going with expensive forwards from teams is the way to go in this contest. The Eels are still missing a few key members of their forward pack so Hopgood and one of RCG or Junior Paulo would be a good way to start. Cherry-Evans should control the play for Manly with Schuster alongside him in the halves. If you think Manly will win at home, then we’d recommend playing him over Moses or Dylan Brown. Sivo and Gutherson are priced well in the outside backs. Keppie and Doorey are both good value picks under $10k.

Knights v Dolphins

Friday 17th March, 6pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Daniel Saifiti 1st, 2nd, LTS @ $81 on TAB + 1st, 2nd or 3rd try at $31 on TAB

Jarrod Wallace 1st, 2nd, LTS @ $67 on TAB (Void – he’ll be missing Rd3)

NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

Roosters v Rabbitohs

Friday 17th March, 8pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Tevita Tatola FTS @ $101 on Sportsbet

Keaon Koloamatangi FTS @ $34 & ATS @ $5.80 on Neds (These got up!!)

Joey Manu ATS @ $3.90 on Bet365

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

Joey Manu is now into $3.75 on Bet365 but we still love the value on offer here. Manu famously suffered a facial fracture at the hands of Latrell Mitchell a couple of years ago. He’ll be fired up to cross the line in this blockbuster contest and his noticeably better priced than our model and his career strike rate suggests he should be.

Keaon Koloamatangi is still available for $5.75 ATS & $34 FTS which we love for one of the most improved players in the NRL over the last 2 seasons. The Rabbitohs scored all 4 of their tries in their win in round 1 and none in their loss last week. Lachy Ilias looked excellent in round one and if he can reproduce that form with Koloamatangi’s strong running game, we love the value on offer here.

Tevita Tatola was knocked out within a minute in Round One so he’ll be fresh and ready to go here. He’s now into $71 on Sportsbet which is still $10-20 higher than most other bookies and our model’s odds. We think it’s OK value at $71 but this shows the importance of getting on try scorer plays on Wednesday before the standout prices disappear!

Titans v Storm

Saturday 18th March, 3pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Eliesa Katoa FTS @ $29 on Bet365

Tyran Wishart FTS @ $41 on Neds

Tino Faasuamaleuai ATS @ $11 on TAB

David Fifita ATS @ $3.75 on TAB

Jahrome Hughes ATS @ $3.25 & FTS2H @ $26 on TAB

NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

Update Sat 18/3 – Eliesa Katoa made 3 linebreaks on the Storm’s right edge next to Jahrome Hughes in a loss to the Bulldogs last weekend. Je’s noticeably higher priced than our model ($19) & most bookies ($21-23). We love the price on offer for Katoa here after he’s hit the ground running for his new team. We also think the right edge for the Storm should continue to see more ball with Munster out.

Tyran Wishart did not look great last week in the Storm’s loss to the Bulldogs. However, we love the $41 on offer for him to score first against the Titans. His second full game deputising for Cam Munster has hopefully allowed him some more time to build combinations on the Storm’s left edge and the price is significantly higher than our model and most bookies ($26).

Big Tino will be fired up playing his old club and his first game alongside baby brother Iszac. The $11 on offer for him to score a try anytime is more than double what his career strike rate suggests his odds should be ($5.21) and easily more than most bookies ($5-8). The Storm have some players returning but are still missing Asofa-Solomona and have Kamikamica and Sims playing their first games for 2023. Tino is coming off scoring a try (the last try) of the game last week against the Dragons.

Jahrome Hughes is another player coming up against his old side. We also expect him to call for more ball with Munster out. In a loss to the Bulldogs last weekend, Hughes scored a try, ran for almost 150 metres, had 2 linebreaks and 2 linebreak assists. It’s fair to say we think he’ll be just as involved after a loss and the $3.25 for him to score a try anytime and $26 to score the first half in the 2nd half looks appealing.

David Fifita is still $3.75 to score a try against the Storm – noticeably higher than what his odds should be looking at his career strike rate ($2.87). This is reasonable given that they’re playing the Storm. But this is a Storm side still without Papenhuyzen and Munster + coming off a loss at home. Fifita has looked impressive in the early parts of the 2023 season and playing next to Kieran Foran can only help his ability to hit a hole.

Update 16/3 – Daniel Saifiti is now into $67 on TAB and Topsport. He’s still $31 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try which is excellent value.

Cowboys v Warriors

Saturday 18th March, 5.30pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Addin Fonua-Blake 1st, 2nd + LTS @ $101 on TAB

Marata Niukore/Mitch Barnett $51 FTS on Neds & 365 resp.

Griffin Neame FTS2H, LTS @ $81 + ATS @ $11 on TAB

Josh Curran FTS2H, LTS @ $101 + LTS Team @ $67 on TAB (Void – ruled out)

NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

Update Sat 18/3 – We successfully tipped Addin Fonua-Blake would score the last try last weekend at $101. We’re going back to the well with him this week. Three individual plays – first, 2nd and last try scorer on TAB. Unfortunately the price is now $81 for some markets and $101 for some. Regardless, we like this play. The one strength the Warriors do have is their pack. And the Cowboys are missing Drinkwater and Hiku. Our Discord chat was cheering this one on together – it’s free to join if you’d like to join the action.

Griffin Neame is $67 for FTS2H now but still $81 for LTS on TAB. We love this play. He scored a try in 4/29 games last season including FTS2H twice. The $67 for him to barge over for the first try in the 2nd half is good value but we absolutely LOVE the $81 to score last. This is because he’s played the last 10-15 minutes on the left edge for Coen Hess who’s been given a spell.

Niukore and Barnett are still $51 for FTS. Both playing on the edge, if the Warriors are going to put up a fight away from home it’ll be early in the game. Both players have had a reasonable start to 2023 but it’s more the price we like here. Our model an most bookies have him around the $35-40 mark.

Broncos v Dragons

Saturday 18th March, 7.35pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Francis Molo FTS @ $126 on Sportsbet

Jack Bird FTS Team & LTS Team @ $34

Josh Kerr FTS2H @ $101 on Sportsbet

NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Round 3 Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

Update Sat 18/3 – Jack Bird will be fired up and looking to send a message to his old side who have started the season 2-0. Unfortunately his FTS & LTS Team odds have been crunched in. He’s still $26 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on TAB (similar to $78 for FTS) and also $81 for the 2nd and 3rd try (two separate bets). We still love the value at the price here.

Franky Molo is another one who plays against his old side in this clash. He’s now $101 instead of $126 but he’s already scored the first try twice in his career. Most bookies have him at less than $81 so we think it’s worth a small stake play here.

Josh Kerr is still $101 to score the first try. The Broncos have an impressive pack but hopefully Kerr gets around 10-15 minutes running at Palasia and Flegler rather than Haas and Carrigan. He’s scored 5 tries in 56 games and looking at that Dragons pack, he should get 30 minutes either side of half-time so we like the value at $101.

If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.

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