Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 4 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for try scorer markets in the NRL & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round. Everything on our site is free – whether you want to join our free NRL Supercoach or NRL Fantasy leagues ($500 up for grabs), join our Discord community or access any of our data tools you can do it all for free here.

If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, we’ve written an article to help you out. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!

Knights v Raiders

Sunday 26th March, 4.05pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Josh Papali’i ATS @ $7.25 on Sportsbet

Bradman Best 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12 on TAB

Jamal Fogarty 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on TAB (Void – ruled out at final teams)

Matt Croker FTS2H @ $101 on SB/Neds

Update Fri 24/3 – Josh Papali’i is still $7.25 to score anytime on Sportsbet. He’s the best try scoring middle in the NRL. He is playing his first game for 2023 after struggling with a calf injury. However, up against a Knights pack that is missing a few players and could have Daniel Saifiti drop out late, we love the value on offer here. If you went by his career strike rate, he’d be priced at $4.70. Most bookies have him at $7 or less.

Jamal Fogarty is still $15 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try (single bet on TAB), however Bradman Best’s odds have been shortened to $10. We think Best is still a decent play but absolutely love the $15 on offer for Fogarty. Even though he’s not a noted try scorer, coming up against a Knights side who are struggling to pull 17 players together – we love this play. As a point of reference – our model has him priced at $30 and no bookie has him priced at more than $34 to be first try scorer. And with this play we’re getting odds similar to $45 for first try scorer.

Matt Croker at $101 to score the first try in the 2nd half is a great play as there’s a chance he gets some time on the edge for the Knights. Even if he is in the middle of the field, he looks like he’s bulked up this season and we’re okay to have the $101 for FTS2H given he should play 10-20 minutes after half time.

Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!

Dragons v Sharks

Sunday 26th March, 6.15pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Matt Moylan 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on TAB

Francis Molo FTS @ $151 on Sportsbet (good value at $91 or above)

Royce Hunt FTS2H @ $101 & ATS @ $13 on TAB

Josh Kerr FTS2H @ $101 on TAB

Oregon Kaufusi FTS2H @ $101 on TAB

Update Fri 24/3 – Francis Molo is playing his 100th NRL game and we thought the $151 on offer for him to be the first try scorer was a ridiculous price. Clearly a few of you agreed – he’s now been crunched in to $51 on Sportsbet! He’s still available for $81 on Neds which we think is OK for a small stake.

Royce Hunt, Josh Kerr & Oregon Kaufusi are all $101 to score the first try in the second half. We love the odds for Hunt the most – playing for the stronger side and is an extremely strong ball runner. Kerr has scored 5 tries in 57 games but we also like the price for him. Kaufusi isn’t a noted try scorer, however, we think $101 against a Dragons bench including Musgrove, Kerr & Couchman is a big price.

Matt Moylan to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try at $15 is still available on TAB. For reference – our model and most bookies have him less than $30. And we’re getting similar odds to $45 for him here. This play’s less about the matchup and more about the number on offer.

Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!

Eels v Panthers

Thursday 23rd March, 8.00pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Dylan Edwards ATS @ $3.90 on Bet365

Maika Sivo ATS @ $2.45 on Neds

Nathan Cleary 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12 & ATS @ $4.75 on TAB

Dylan Brown 1st, 2nd or 3rd try at $16 & ATS @ $6 on TAB

Moses Leota FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365

Spencer Leniu FTS2H @ $67 on TAB

Raegan Campbell-Gillard FTS @ $81 on Neds

Dylan Edwards is noticeably better priced than our model would suggest he should be in the anytime try scorer market. Maika Sivo has an incredible try scoring record at CommBank Stadium and he’s priced much better than our model or his career strike rate would suggest. We love these two as well as Cleary & Brown as value anytime try scorer plays.

Cleary & Brown are great value in the ‘1st, 2nd or 3rd try’ market on TAB. Although it’s not the same – it’s similar to getting $36 for Cleary & $48 for Dylan Brown to score the first try. We love the value on offer here, given they’ll be playing the full game unless they’re injured or get pulled off the field for a HIA.

Moses Leota and Spencer Leniu are two of the strongest ball runners in the NRL. Leota to be the first try scorer or last try scorer (separate bets) at $81 is great value. Most other bookies have them around $10-20 less than the sites we’ve found. Leota is named to start – so he’ll likely be on the field when the first and last try is scored. Leniu is named on the bench so we like him to score the first try in the second half at $67 on TAB.

Update Thurs 23/3, 6.30pm – There’s significant rain around Sydney at the moment and the odds for Sivo and Edwards have been crunched in. We’d recommend staying away from them at the current price if you’re not already on. We’ll still count them in our record of value plays though.

Raegan Campbell-Gillard is $81 to be the first try scorer on Neds/Ladbrokes – we love the price on offer here! A strong ball runner against his old side in a game where tries are more likely to be scored in the middle!

Storm v Wests Tigers

Friday 24th March, 6.00pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Eliesa Katoa FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365

Luke Brooks 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $18 & LTS @ $51 on TAB

Apisai Koroisau 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $81 on TAB (This won! Koroisau scored the last try at $81)

Stefano Utoikamanu FTS & LTS @ $81 & ATS @ $15 on SB

Update Thu 23/3 – Stefano Utoikamanu is our favourite play in this game. He’s still at the $15 & $81 price for anytime & first try scorer. His career strike rate at scoring tries is almost as good as Josh Papali’i (scores every 5 games on average). The Tigers team isn’t in great shape but Utoikamanu’s stats have been off the charts and we love the value on offer here.

Api Koroisau has been OK at best to start 2023 for his new club. But the $81 for him to score the 1st, 2nd or last try @ $81 gets ‘three green lights’ according to our value ratings which is good enough for us to include it as a value play. His career strike rate for first try scorer would have him priced at $34 and our model and most other bookies have him at $57 or less.

Luke Brooks at $51 in our first try scorer model odds comparison tool page is as close to three green lights as you can be! If you looked at our model and his career strike rate, they’re both priced under $41. No bookie has him priced over $41. We think the best way to play him is to score one of the first three tries (one bet) on TAB or LTS @ $51.

Eliesa Katoa at $29 is paying significantly higher for first try scorer than our model would suggest he should be. He will be missing Jahrome Hughes next to him, however, given his impressive start to the season we like the value on offer here for first and last try scorer ($29 for 2 separate bets).

Dolphins v Broncos

Friday 24th March, 8.00pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Tom Gilbert ATS @ $10.50 & FTS @ $71 on SB

Jesse Bromwich FTS @ $126 on Neds, FTS Team & LTS Team @ $67 on TAB

Jordan Riki 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on TAB

Jarrod Wallace FTS2H @ $81 on TAB

Tom Gilbert is our favourite play in this game. With Felise Kaufusi out, there’s a chance Kenny Bromwich & Tom Gilbert both spend time on the edge. We did mention Kenny Bromwich as a great FTS & ATS option on our Discord & social media earlier in the week but that price disappeared quickly! However, Gilbert is still available at a great price and is clear value even if he gets 30 minutes on an edge.

Jesse Bromwich gets 3 green lights in our first try scorer odds comparison tool dropdown. At $126 to score the first try in this game – he’s great value compared to our model’s odds, his career strike rate and other bookies.

Jordan Riki is showing up as great value at $34 to score the first try according to our model. We prefer to play it as him to score either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14. Although it’s not the same, it’s similar to getting a price of $42 for him to score the first try which is a great price on a dynamic ball runner playing next to Adam Reynolds.

Jarrod Wallace is currently named on the bench so we love the $81 for him to score the first try in the 2nd half. If he is named to start in final teams (Kenny Bromwich might shift to an edge from prop) then we’ll update this to FTS & LTS at the same price on TAB. He’ll be fired up coming up against his old side in a blockbuster at Suncorp.

Cowboys v Titans

Saturday 25th March, 5.30pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Val Holmes 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $8 & ATS @ $3.20 on TAB

Tom Dearden 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12 & ATS @ $4.25 on TAB

David Fifita 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12 & ATS @ $4.50 on TAB

Tanah Boyd 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $21

Griffin Neame 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $81 on TAB

Update Fri 24/3 – Holmes, Dearden, DFifita & Boyd are still the same price for the ‘1st, 2nd or 3rd try’ market on TAB. Neame is also still $81 to score the 1st, 2nd or last try (separate bets) on TAB. Unfortunately Holmes, Dearden & Fifita’s ATS prices have been shortened. The Cowboys have struggled to bring their from from 2022 into this season. They’re missing Drinkwater, Hiku & Cotter in this one up against a Titans side that’s coming off a win against the Storm.

Dearden scored tries in 8 of his 23 NRL games in 2023. Including scoring the first try in 4 of them. His first try scorer price is $31 on TAB, compared to being around $20 on most other bookies and our model. We prefer playing the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try market at $12 but the $31 for FTS/LTS etc is also great value.

Holmes is $19 to be the first try scorer on TAB, noticeably better than other bookies. We love the $8 for him to score one of the first three tries (similar to $24 for FTS). He’ll be next to Dearden coming up against the Titans’ right side edge with Stimson and Boyd so we also like the matchup.

Griffin Neame has scored a try in 4 of his 30 NRL games so far. It’s a small sample size, but that’s a better try scoring strike rate than Josh Papali’i who has the best try scoring strike rate out of middle forwards in the NRL. Playing for the favourite in this game and likely to get more minutes with Cotter being out, we think the $81 on offer for him to score the 1st, 2nd or last try (3 separate plays) is incredible value. Our model and most bookies have him at $50 or less.

David Fifita and Tanah Boyd in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try market is purely about the price for us. Similar to getting a $36 for Fifita and $63 for Boyd to get the first try, we think it’s great value. Boyd should be around $40 if you look at most bookies, our model and his career strike rate. We shouldn’t have to convince you on Fifita’s try scoring abilities but most bookies have him around $20 to score the first try so we think it’s clear value here.

Rabbitohs v Sea Eagles

Saturday 25th March, 7.35pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Cody Walker ATS @ $4.25 + 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $9 (This won – he scored the first try!)

Lachlan Ilias ATS @ $5.75 on SB

Haumole Olakau’atu ATS @ $4.20 on Neds

Cam Murray 1st, 2nd or LTS @ $51 on TAB

Taniela Paseka FTS @ $91 & ATS @ $12 on SB

Josh Aloiai FTS @ $81 & ATS @ $12 on SB

Sean Keppie FTS2H @ $101 on TAB

Jake Trbojevic First or Last Try Scorer @ $51 & ATS @ $15 on Sportsbet

Update Fri 24/3 –  Ilias, Paseka & Aloiai are still great odds on Sportsbet. Keppie is still available at $101 for FTS2H. Haumole Olakaua’atu is still $4 on 365 which we think is decent value.

We love the price for Paseka, Aloiai and Keppie for two reasons. Firstly, the Souths forward pack is severely undermanned. They’re missing Tatola, Sele, Shaq Mitchell and Arrow. Manly are outsiders in this game but have looked impressive so far in 2023. Paseka and Aloiai are named to start so we love the first for them to be the first try scorer or anytime try scorer on Sportsbet. Keppie’s named on the bench and we love the $101 for him to be the first try scorer in the 2nd half against a bench with a rookie middle forward, two edge back rowers and an outside back!

Haumole Olakau’atu  delivered for us last week and we think he’s a great shout again this week. Playing on Manly’s right side with Cherry-Evans and up against the Rabbitohs’ left with Jacob Host playing his first game for 2023 – we think it’s a great matchup. The $4 on offer on 365 is still a good value play going off our model’s price ($3.60) & his career strike rate ($2.83).

Cody Walker has been crunched in on TAB and isn’t great value anymore. So has Cam Murray. Cody Walker’s price earlier in the week was significantly better than his career strike rate, our model and most bookies would suggest it should be. Murray at $51s was the same.

Update Sat 25/3 – Added Jake Trbojevic to the value plays as we love the $15 anytime try scorer price as well as $101 for first try scorer. We don’t usually love Jake in try scorer markets but the price is good here and he’s up against a Souths pack missing Arrow, Sele, Tatola and Shaq Mitchell.

Warriors v Bulldogs

Sunday 26th March, 2.00pm

Try Scorer Value Picks

Paul Alamoti 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $11 on TAB

Viliame Kikau 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $9 on TAB

Kyle Flanagan 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $19, FTS Team @ $26 and LTS Team @ $26 on TAB

Update Fri 24/3 – Alamoti and Kikau are now both $9 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try. We still like the value on Alamoti for this market or anytime try scorer. Kikau’s one of the most destructive ball runners in the NRL and Alamoti has shown a lot in the first 3 rounds of 2023. Alamoti is around 20% better priced on TAB than other bookies for the first try scorer market whereas Kikau is more based on his ball running capabilities and what his odds would be if you went off his career strike rate ($14).

Update Sun 26/3 – Like the price on Kyle Flanagan here. The $51 to score the first try is tempting, given his model odds are around $35. However, the way we’ve listed it is a better value way to win on more scenarios on Flanagan.

If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.

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