Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 2 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for try scorer markets in the NRL & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round. Everything on our site is free – whether you want to join our free NRL Supercoach or NRL Fantasy leagues ($500 up for grabs), join our Discord chat or access any of our data tools you can do it all for free here.
We nailed Fitzgibbon & Ilias to score a try at $6-7 odds last week as well as Hutchison to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try at $17! If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!
Update 15/3 – We had an amazing Round 2 nailing Fonua-Blake to score the last try & Utoikamanu to score a try anytime at $10.50.
Check out the Punter’s Preview for Round 3.
Wests Tigers v Knights
Sunday 12th March, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Picks
Stefano Utoikamanu ATS @ $10.50 on Sportsbet
Jackson Hastings FTS @ $67 & ATS @ $8.75 on Neds
Jacob Saifiti 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $101 on TAB
We discussed Utoikamanu’s impressive try scoring record in 2021 in last week’s Punter’s Preview. He’s now up against an understrength Knights pack – missing Klemmer from last season and Adam Elliott from their Round 1 side. We love the $10.50 on offer for him to score a try anytime when most bookies and his career strike rate would suggest his odds should be $6.50 or lower.
Jackson Hastings comes up against his old side and one thing you can guarantee is that he’ll want revenge. He’s not a noted try scorer but we love the $67 for FTS & $8.75 on Neds as it’s noticeably higher than other bookies and what our model has him priced at.
Jacob Saifiti gets ‘three green lights’ at the $101 price – he’s great value according to our model, other bookies & his career strike rate. Best way to play him is to score the 1st, 2nd or last try as that’s when he’ll likely be on the field.
Dragons v Titans
Sunday 12th March, 6.15pm
Try Scorer Value Picks
Jaydn Su’A FTS @ $41 & ATS @ $6.50 on Neds
Jaimin Jolliffe & Francis Molo 1st, 2nd + LTS @ $101 on TAB
Erin Clark FTS2H @ $101 on TAB
Jaydn Su’A FTS & ATS is our favourite play for this game. The Dragons play their first game of the season and Su’A will be on their right, next to Ben Hunt. They’ll be running at a left edge for the Titans missing Beau Fermor and possibly Kieran Foran if he’s ruled out due to a knee injury. Our model and most bookies have him under $31 to score the first try so we love the matchup and the value.
Jaimin Jolliffe and Francis Molo both get three green lights in our FTS markets for their price of $101 so as we’ve said for the previous few games for middle forwards, we’d suggest you play small stakes at 1st, 2nd & last try scorer on TAB at $101.
Erin Clark had an ultra impressive end to the 2022 NRL season as a running lock forward. We think the $101 is ridiculously good value for someone of his calibre against a weak Dragons side with a noticeably weaker bench.
Panthers v Rabbitohs
Thursday 3rd March, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Picks
Izaac Thompson ATS @ $3.10 on Bet365
Lachlan Ilias ATS @ $7.50 on Sportsbet
Keaon Koloamatangi FTS @ $41
Moses Leota 1st + 2nd + LTS @ $81 on TAB
Jed Cartwright FTS2H @ $81
Jaemon Salmon FTS2H @ $51
The Rabbitohs scored four tries in a gritty win against the Sharks last weekend. All four tries were on the right edge – Ilias scoring the first, Koloamatangi scored one and Campbell Graham scoring two. Thompson, Ilias & Koloamatangi are noticeably better priced than our model thinks they should be. Koloamatangi has ‘three green lights’ so he’s good model according to our model, his career strike rate & other bookies so we love the $41 him to score first.
Cartwright & Salmon are both likely to get some time on the edge. So we love the $81 and $51 respectively for them to score the first try in the second half. Salmon played the last 30 minutes of the game for Garner on the Panthers’ left edge. Although Chee-Kam played 80 minutes, that was because Souths didn’t have Cartwright to fall back on and dealt with the two early outs in Arrow & Tatola.
Moses Leota is a hard running front rower and with the Panthers likely to hit the ground running after two home losses in 2023, we love the $81 on offer for him to score the first try. We’ve suggested three separate bets – FTS, 2nd TS & LTS for Leota at $81 each on TAB. We’d suggest staking a small stake on each of them.
Eels v Sharks
Friday 10th March, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Picks
Sione Katoa ATS @ $2.8 & FTS @ $13 on Neds
Braden Uele ATS @ $11 on Sportsbet
Royce Hunt ATS @ $15 on Bet365
Sione Katoa is one of our model’s best plays of Round 2 after he delivered for us in Round 1 and could easily have scored a double! Our model and his career strike rate would have priced around $.190. Most bookies have him at $2.40 or less so you can see why we think the $2.80 is clear value.
Royce Hunt played 20 of his 39 NRL games in 2022. He’s had an interrupted career but he scored a try in 3 of his 20 games in 2022. Uele’s maintained that strike rate – scoring in one of every 6-7 NRL games throughout his NRL career. Against a significantly understrength Eels pack who had to play big minutes against the Storm last week in Round 1, we think these are incredible odds for Hunt or Uele to score a try anytime.
Update – thanks to “Iamthecaptainnow” on our Discord – we’ve found that Hunt is $15 on Bet365 for ATS!
Broncos v Cowboys
Friday 10th March, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Picks
Jason Taumalolo & Payne Haas – 1st, 2nd & Last TS @ $101 on TAB
Griffin Neame FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet
Cory Paix FTS2H @ $101 on TAB
Reece Robson FTS @ $38 on Topsport
Jason Taumalolo & Payne Haas are two of the strongest ball runners in the NRL. Although neither are known for their try scoring abilities, they are both significantly higher priced than our model, their strike rate & other bookies suggest they should be. We love them as 1st, 2nd & LTS picks (three separate bets) at $101 on TAB.
Griffin Neame has already scored the first try in the 2nd half twice in his 28 NRL games. He scored 4 tries in his 24 NRL games in 2022 and we think the $61 on offer for him to score score the first try in the 2nd half against the Broncos is a good price.
Reece Robson has scored a try in 16 of his 65 games since he joined the Cowboys in 2020. His FTS odds should be around $25-30 if you look at his career strike rate or most other bookies so we love the $38 on offer at Topsport.
NRL Draftstars – $20,000 contest
Value Pick – Ezra Mam @ $10,750. Mam made a stunning linebreak against the Panthers last week to setup a try and our money is on him to produce more plays for his highlight reel tonight. He’s rated 9/10 in our value ratings and if the Broncos can live up to the hype, we think Mam can easily exceed the 36 points our model has him projected for.
Fade Option – Adam Reynolds @ $19,830. Reynolds has been a great addition for the Broncos but with Walsh and Mam in their spine alongside Haas and Carrigan in the pack, we think his opportunities will be limited. Robson, Cotter, Carrigan & Haas are the other players projected to score over 50 points in this contest and we think they all have more upside than Reynolds in this one.
Roosters v Warriors
Saturday 11th March, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Picks
Joey Manu ATS @ $2.80 on TAB
Te Maire Martin ATS @ $8.50 on TAB
Victor Radley 1st, 2nd + LTS @ $51 on TAB
Addin Fonua-Blake 1st, 2nd + LTS @ $101 on TAB
Joey Manu plays his first NRL game for 2023 against a Warriors team who are noticeably weaker playing away from home. The $2.80 on offer on 365 is noticeably higher than the $2.02 our model thinks the price should be and also higher than the $2.40-2.50 on most sites.
Te Maire Martin is priced significantly higher than his career strike rate and most other bookies think he should be at $8.50 on TAB. Our model, which takes into consideration that he’s now playing in the halves and against the Roosters, has him priced more conservatively at 7.20 but we still think the $8.50 is a good shout here.
Victor Radley will have to step up for the Roosters if they are to bounce back after a first start loss against the Dolphins. If you convert his career strike rate at scoring the first try to betting odds it would be $33. Most sites have him priced under $40 so we love the $51 on offer. We think the best way to play Radley here is to score the 1st, 2nd or last try at $51 (three separate bets) on TAB.
Addin Fonua-Blake (AFB) will be running at a significantly understrength Roosters pack with only Collins, Radley & Brandon Smith as big name forwards in the middle. Radley (HIA) & Smith (ribs) could yet be ruled out at final teams – we love the $101 on offer for AFB to score the 1st, 2nd or last try. We like this way of playing the markets on TAB as this is when most middle forwards are likely to be on the field.
Dolphins v Raiders
Saturday 11th March, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Picks
Tom Gilbert 1st, 2nd + LTS @ $101 on TAB
Danny Levi 1st, 2nd TS @ $81 on TAB
Corey Harawira-Naera ATS @ $5 & 1st, 2nd or 3rd TS @ $14
Harawira-Naera (CHN) was named at lock last week but played most of the game on the right edge for the Raiders including the whole first half. The 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $14 is extremely good value and the $5 is also good value as a backup incase he scores on the edge later. If the bookies were aware he was playing edge, he’d be closer to the $4 that Topsport have him priced at (they have Whitehead at $5.30).
Levi scored the first try in their final try at $81 odds. He’ll need to make a big impact early in the game and the Raiders will want to hit the ground running after being down 18-6 at half time against the Cowboys last week. He’s priced at $51 or less on most other bookies and our model has him priced at $45.
Tom Gilbert is one of our favourites after getting up at $81 odds to score the first try in the first of the finals in 2022! He is playing in the middle of the field this time around but the $101 on offer is really good value on TAB – he gets three green lights from us. Most bookies have him priced at $67 or less and model has him priced exactly at that mark also. Although it was for a strong Cowboys outfit and also on the edge, it is worth noting he scored the 1st try in 3 of his 24 NRL games in 2022!
Storm v Bulldogs
Saturday 11th March, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Picks
Viliame Kikau FTS @ $26 on Neds
Fa’amanu Brown ATS @ $10.5 on Sportsbet
Josh King 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $101 on TAB
Aaron Pene FTS2H @ $101 on TAB
Jacob Preston FTS2H @ $67 on Neds
Fa’amanu Brown is again great value to score a try. We mentioned last week that he’d scored a try in 5 of his 13 games in 2022. He is playing at lock this year and playing the Storm in Melbourne but we love the $10.50 for ATS here.
Another play we liked last week was Viliame Kikau to score the first try. He’s $26 to do this against the Storm and although the Dogs are likely to struggle, we think the lethal left of the Dogs could click early with a Burton short ball to big ‘Billy Kiks’.
Pene & Preston are both great value to score the first try in the 2nd half. Preston played on the edge when Faitala-Mariner (RFM) moved to the middle and we expect that to happen again. If he plays right edge, he’ll be running at Tyran Wishart who is deputising for Cam Munster. Preston is a similar player to Asofa-Solomona (NAS) and we love the $101 for someone with his running style up against an understrength Bulldogs pack.
There are a few middle forwards at $101 on TAB and we picked Josh King as our favourite. Harry Grant is great at putting middle forwards through a hole. King had 133 run metres in an inspiring 80+ minute effort last week. Again we like playing this with smaller stakes at 1st, 2nd + LTS at $101 on TAB as that’s when he’s most likely to be on the field if he does get a spell in the middle of the game.
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