Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 26 of the 2023 NRL season. We had 4 different Dabble multis or big try scorer plays like Josh Papalii at $51 JUST miss last weekend – so we’re due for some good luck this round!
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Bulldogs v Manly
Sun 27/8, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Corey Waddell FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365** (This got up – FTS @ $41!)
Jake Trbojevic ATS @ $12, FTS @ $81 on Sportsbet
Toby Sexton ATS @ $6.75 on Sportsbet & FTS @ $41 on Betr
Jason Saab FTS @ $8.75 on Neds
Tevita Pangai-Junior LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Liam Knight FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365**
Jake Arthur FTS @ $29 on Betr**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Sun 27/8 – We’ve added Knight, Waddell and Arthur as picks today. Waddell is uninspiring but we like the $41 price for him outside of Sexton, running at a weaker Manly edge on the left. Arthur scored the first try last week and $29 feels just high enough to make it a pick. Knight broke our hearts last week by scoring after Josh Papalii to kill our LTS play at $51. We like him at $81 for FTS & LTS.
Jake Trbojevic is still $12 for ATS which we still love against a weak Dogs pack. His FTS & LTS price seems to be around $67-71 on Sportsbet which is still OK but we did love the $81. Sexton is still $41 on Bet Right which we love – our model’s got him at $28 and he scored a try last weekend against the Raiders. Saab is now $9.50 on Betr to score first – our model and most bookies have him around $7-8.50. Pangai-Junior is on the bench and may not be on when the last try is scored, but we think it’s worth a crack at the $81 price on Bet365.
Wicky Preview Thu 24/8 – Unfortunately for Manly and Bulldogs fans, both their seasons are over. The Dogs actually have some stability and we think they could get actually upset Manly in this one. Manly’s left edge now has Jake Arthur, Ben Trbojevic, Morgan Harper and Vaega defending together – the Dogs right side attack could be the way to go if you’re looking for try scorers!
We had Toby Sexton as an anytime try scorer pick last week and he delivered. Our model has him priced at $5.63 this week and he’s paying $6.50 on Sportsbet. We absolutely love the $41 for FTS on Betr. Jason Saab is now $9.50 for FTS on Betr. Coming off a hat-trick last week, we love this price. Our model has him priced at $7.11.
Jake Trbojevic is still paying $12 to score anytime. He’s paying around $67-71 for FTS, FTS2H & LTS on Sportsbet. We think $67 and above is fine for him against a Dogs pack which concedes the most tries to middle forwards in the NRL. Our official tip will only be the FTS @ $81 from earlier in the week for now. Pangai-Junior only has two NRL games to go. We love the $81 for him to score the last try.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Knights v Sharks
Sun 27/8, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Dane Gagai ATS @$4.10 on Sportsbet + FTS & LTS @ $23 on Dabble
Tyson Frizell ATS @ $6 on PlayUp
Greg Marzhew ATS @ $1.80 on Betr & TAB
Leo Thompson FTS @ $81 on Sportsbet + LTS @ $71 on Sportsbet
Braden Uele FTS & LTS @ $51 on Sportsbet
Jack Hetherington FTS2H @ $91 on Sportsbet
Matt Croker FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet
Tyson Gamble FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365**
Toby Rudolf FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365**
Lachlan Fitzgibbon ATS @ $5 on PlayUp (void)
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Sun 27/8 – We’ve added Gamble & Rudolf to our picks today. Gamble’s been in great form for the Knights and Rudolf is purely a play on the price – we wouldn’t take him at $70 or lower. Marzhew is still $1.75 on Pointsbet which our model still loves. Gagai & Frizell are still our model’s two favourite ATS plays for this game – $3.80 and $5.5 on Sportsbet & Betr respectively. Fitzgibbon is ruled out.
Leo Thompson is $76 & $81 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet. Uele is $51 for FTS & LTS on Dabble & 365 – this is the lowest number we’d take him at. Matt Croker is $61 for FTS2H on Pointsbet – we think he’s OK at $51 and like him at $61. Hetherington is now into $71 for FTS2H on Sportsbet which is borderline – we like him at $81 or higher.
Wicky Preview Thu 24/8 – Jackson Hastings returns for the Knights in the only change for both sides. They’re both on winning streaks and look excellent – this is comfortably game of the round. Dom Young hasn’t scored for three weeks and the Knights left edge with Marzhew on the wing has been on fire in this time.
For the anytime try scorer market – Dane Gagai is $4.90 on Sportsbet, Tyson Frizell is $6 on Betr, Greg Marzhew is $1.77 on Topsport & Lachlan Fitzgibbon is $4.90 on Sportsbet. They are 4 of our model’s 5 favourite value try scorer picks for this game. Marzhew’s on the Knights’ favoured left wing, Fitzgibbon is an excellent hole runner and Frizell and Gagai have both been in impressive form this season.
Braden Uele is $51 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet. He’s almost played 100 NRL games, a lot of them off the bench. And he’s already scored the first try 3 times! He scores a try one in every 7 NRL games – the most elite middle forwards score every ~5 games. We like the $51 for Uele for FTS & LTS – we wouldn’t play him at $41 or less. Leo Thompson finally scored his first NRL try a couple of weeks ago and has looked great for the Knights in 2023. He’s $81 for FTS & $71 for LTS – we wouldn’t take him at less than $71.
For the first try in the second half market – Jack Hetherington is $91 & Matt Croker is $61 – both on Sportsbet. Croker scored the first try in the 2nd half against the Storm in Round 21 at $81. The thing we like about him is that he chases grubbers close to the line and he’s also a strong ball runner. Hetherington scored a try two weeks ago chasing a loose ball. Daniel Saifiti chased a grubber last week also! That’s three tries we can remember within the last 5 rounds of bench middle forwards scoring off a grubber or a loose ball for the Knights!
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Panthers v Eels
Thu 24/8, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Daejarn Asi FTS @ $67 on Neds
Joey Lussick FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Raegan Campbell-Gillard & Junior Paulo FTS & LTS @ $101 on Bet365 & Dabble (Junior Paulo benched – he’s FTS2H on SB at $81+)
Shaun Lane LTS @ $51 on 365, Neds & TAB + FTS2H @ $41 on Sportsbet, Neds, Pointsbet**
Wiremu Greig FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky Preview Thu 24/8 – Dylan Edwards and Turuva have been rested with Jesse McLean to play fullback and Tom Jenkins to come onto the wing. Brian To’o does return but the Panthers are still missing Mitch Kenny, Scott Sorenson & Izack Tago. The Eels are basically full strength aside from Mitch Moses with Shaun Lane returning from the bench.
Our model loves the prices for 3 of the Eels’ backline to score anytime but we’ve decided to leave them out of our value picks. We can definitely see the Eels scoring a couple of tries against a Panthers outfit missing a few players – but we love the prices on offer for some of their forwards. Shaun Lane is named on the bench and likely comes on after 20-30 minutes to play the game out on the edge with Matterson shifting to the middle. We love the $41-51 for him to score the first try in the 2nd half + last try. Daejarn Asi is still $67 to score first on Neds. He’s looked good in 2023. Our model and most bookies have him priced at $46 or below – $67 is clear value. Joey Lussick has looked to crash over from dummy half a couple of times in the last fortnight – he’s now only $67-71 for FTS & LTS but we think even that is good value.
Raegan Campbell-Gillard is $91 to score the first & last try on Sportsbet. Junior Paulo is widely available at $81 for FTS & $91 for LTS on Sportsbet. Wiremu Greig is now $91 to score the first try in the 2nd half – we love this price. We would take any of these three at $81 or above. The Panthers are an incredible side but the Eels’ pack is at full strength now and the Panthers are missing 4-5 regular first graders – we love our chances at $81+ for these players, all of whom we can see crashing over.
Warriors v Dragons
Fri 25/8, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Mikaele Ravalawa ATS @ $2.50 & FTS @ $15 on Betr
Ben Hunt FTS @ $41 on Betr
Francis Molo LTS @ $91 on Sportsbet
Ben Murdoch-Masila FTS2H @ $71 on Sportsbet
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update 25/8 – Ravalawa is $2.30 at best on TAB – our model has him at $1.96 so we still love Rava to score anytime. Murdoch-Masila is still $71 to score the first try in the 2nd half on Sportsbet which we still like. Ben Hunt is $34 for FTS on Bet Right, TAB & Betr – we think this is around fair price. Francis Molo is $81 for LTS which we think is around fair price.
Wicky Preview Thu 24/8 – The only major team change for either side in this one is the return of Zac Lomax. Mikaele Ravalawa is now $2.40 at best to score anytime on TAB. He’s been on a ridiculous try scoring run in recent weeks and our model has him priced at $1.96. He’s also up against the Warriors’ left edge defence which conceded three tries to Jason Saab last week. If you’re looking for a lock – this is it! A good price, a good matchup and our model and most bookies agree the $2.40 is overs.
Ben Hunt has scored the first try in a game one in every 19 NRL games he’s played. Yes the Dragons season is over and they’ve played poorly this year – but the $41 on Betr is a great price. Ben Murdoch-Masila is now $67 for FTS 2nd half which is still fine to play. We like the Molo brothers or Blake Lawrie at $91 and above. $81 and above is fine also. To be clear – these prices aren’t available now but we think they will pop up on Sportsbet before game time. We won’t count these to our bets tracker though as we can’t confirm the tip at that price currently.
Dolphins v Cowboys
Fri 25/8, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Connely Lemuelu ATS @ $6.50 on Betr**
Harrison Graham FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Mark Nicholls FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update 25/8 – Mark Nicholls is still $67 for FTS & LTS on Dabble – this is by far our play of the game! Harrison Graham, the Dolphins Hooker, is $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet Right – this is around fair price now. Lemuelu is now into $4.25 to score anytime at best on Bet Right. This is actually so short now it’s not even close to good value!
Wicky Preview Thu 24/8 – Jeremiah Nanai is out for the Cowboys and the Dolphins get a few troops back. The Cowboys are literally playing for their season – one last chance for them to click, otherwise, that’s it for season 2023.
Lemuelu is now $5.80 at best on Sportsbet which is just fair price, not much value left there now. Mark Nicholls is still available at $67 for FTS & LTS on Dabble. Harrison Graham is available at $67 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. We love both of these plays. Graham has made the role his own after Marshall-King being ruled out for the 2023 season. He’s looked to score from dummy half and also put over a middle forward for a try. We like both of these plays at $61 and above. The Cowboys conceded a try to Tom Hazleton and Royce Hunt last week late in the first half – hopefully the trend continues!
Storm v Titans
Sat 26/8, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Trent Loiero ATS @ $5.50 on PlayUp. FTS & LTS @ $31 on Dabble**
Jahrome Hughes ATS @ $2.90 on TAB**
David Fifita ATS @ $4.20 on Betr**
Tui Kamikamica FTS & LTS @ $51 on Dabble**
Kruise Leeming FTS2H @ $71 on Sportsbet
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Sat 26/8 – Trent Loiero is still $5 to score a try anytime on Neds. Our model has him at $3.38 and he’s running at the Titans edge with Tom Weaver and Klese Haas – we love this price. He’s also still $31 for FTS & LTS on Dabble. Jahrome Hughes is now $2.85 on Bet365 – our model’s got him at $2.35 and most bookies have him at $2.60 or less. Another great value pick. David Fifita is $4.33 to score anytime. His career strike rate, our model and most bookies have him priced between $2.80 and $4. With Foran back, we love the price here also. Leeming is now $61 for FTS2H which is OK at best and Kamikamica is $41 for FTS & LTS on 365 which is still a decent price.
Wicky Preview Thu 24/8 – The Storm are missing Josh King but Ryan Papenhuyzen will likely make his return for the Storm off the bench! The Titans are missing Jayden Campbell but Kieran Foran returns which should help David Fifita in attack on their left edge.
Trent Loeiro has averaged 100 running metres in his first full season of NRL, however, looked like he wouldn’t score a try all year! He’s now scored two in his last 5 games and our model loves the $5.50 he is on Sportsbet to score against the Titans right side defence which has Klese Haas and Tom Weaver! Jahrome Hughes is now $2.60 at best which is much closer to fair price. David Fifita has gone out to $4.33 on Betr to score anytime – his career strike rate would have him at $2.80, our model has him at $3.57 and most bookies have him at $4 or less. Clear value and with Foran back, this will help his attacking output also.
Kruise Leeming is $61 on Sportsbet to score the first try in the 2nd half. We still like this price considering the Storm pack will be weaker without Josh King and Ryan Papenhuyzen likely comes on to the bench to reduce their depth and size on the bench further. Tui Kamikamica was a great play at $51 earlier in the week but he’s now below $40 – this is below fair price and we’d avoid it.
Roosters v Wests Tigers
Sat 26/8, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Will Smith FTS @ $51 on Betr + LTS @ $51 on Sportsbet**
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS @ $61 on Sportsbet & Bet Right + LTS @ $51 (widely available)**
Api Koroisau FTS @ $41 on Neds
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Sat 26/8 – Will Smith is still $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet Right. Api Koroisau is $41 for FTS on Neds & Betr which we love. Utoikamanu is widely available at $51 for FTS & LTS – we wouldn’t take him under $51 but we do like the price for a proven try scorer.
Wicky Preview Thu 24/8 – The Roosters need to keep winning to try and make the finals in 2023. They are missing Tedesco, however, they get Sam Walker and Waerea-Hargreaves back. The Tigers are still missing Luke Brooks and Starford To’a but their forward pack is at full strength and Bula and Koroisau have looked great for them this season.
Api Koroisau is still $41 for FTS on Neds and Betr – he’s been in great form this season & would be full of confidence after nailing a sideline conversion to get the Tigers the win last week. Stefano Utoikamanu scores the first try one in every 26 games and the last try one in every 18 games. He’s paying $56 for FTS & $56 for LTS. We understand that the Tigers are big outsiders in this one, but anything at $51 or above is good enough for Utoikamanu.
Will Smith is $51 & $46 to score the first and last try on Sportsbet. The Tigers have looked much better in recent weeks – we think this is a juicy price for him.
Raiders v Broncos
Sat 26/8, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Matt Timoko ATS @ $4 on Betr**
Herbie Farnworth ATS @ $2.75 on TAB**
Jordan Rapana ATS @ $3.50 on Bet365
Tom Flegler FTS & LTS @ $71 on Sportsbet**
Corey Horsburgh FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365**
Josh Papalii FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Joseph Tapine FTS @ $67 & LTS @ $71 on Sportsbet
Emre Guler FTS2H @ $71 on Sportsbet
Kobe Hetherington FTS2H @ $67 on Sportsbet**
Ezra Mam FTS & LTS @ $23 on Pointsbet**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Sat 26/8 – Timoko & Farnworth are $3.75 and $2.75 respectively on TAB – we still like both these picks. Rapana is shockingly still available at $3.30 on Neds. Carrigan and Adam Reynolds are out for the Broncos, Kris and Wighton are in. This SHOULD be a closer game than most expected + Rapana did go to the wing like we said could happen! Our model now has him priced at $2.32 – anything above $3 is a great price.
For the middle forwards prices – Josh Papalii is $61 for FTS on PlayUp and $51 for LTS is widely available. Tapine is $67 for FTS & LTS on Unibet. He’s $67 for FTS or LTS on a couple of other bookies including Sportsbet. Horsburgh is still $67 for FTS & LTS on Unibet. Flegler is $71 for LTS & $61 for FTS on Sportsbet. Guler & Hetherington are both $67 for FTS 2nd half on Sportsbet.
Wicky Preview Thu 24/8 – The key changes for this one are that Jack Wighton likely comes back in for the Raiders (named on the extended bench) and Adam Reynolds is ruled out. The Raiders can still miss out on the finals and they got humiliated away from home two weeks ago against the Storm – so they’ll come at the Broncos hard. The question is, will that be good enough against the electric Broncos.
For the anytime try scorer market – Timoko is now $3.75 on TAB, Farnworth is $2.75 on TAB & Rapana is still $3.50 on 365. These are actually our model’s three favourite anytime try scorer picks for the game (in terms of price available v our model’s price). We love Rapana as there is a chance Kris returns to fullback and Rapana returns to the wing. Which would make the $3.50 an incredible price. Farnworth and Timoko have been in incredible form in 2023 – the model liking the price gives us enough of a reason to back these two superstars!
Josh Papali’i broke our hearts last week. One of the best middle forward try scorers EVER in the NRL scored with 7 minutes left to go. We had him as last try scorer at $51. Liam Knight then scored with a minute to go to ruin our bet and break the hearts of our Discord community! It’s safe to say he owes us! He’s $67 for FTS & LTS this week. We absolutely love this price. He’s done it historically at a strike rate of around 40-45 so the $67 is a juicy price, albeit against a strong Broncos outfit. Corey Horsburgh is also $67 for FTS & LTS on 365 – he’s had a career best year this season and he’ll want to impress against the Broncos in his home State. Joseph Tapine is available at $67 on Unibet, PlayUp & Betr for FTS & $71 for LTS on Sportsbet. He’s only scored once this season but in 2022 he hit his straps late – we think he’ll want to send a message against the Broncos pack and we like him at $67 or higher for FTS & LTS.
Tom Flegler is now $61 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet – this is the lowest price we’d take him at. Kobe Hetherington is a strong ball runner, built low to the ground – we love the $67 for him to score first in the 2nd half against a noticeably weaker Raiders bench. Emre Guler is still $71 to score the first try in the 2nd half. We’ve backed him all season but he’s never scored the first try in the 2nd half! We can’t call this a value pick, more of a hunch. The value is gone for Ezra Mam, it was a brief juicy price on Pointsbet.
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