Punter’s Preview NRL Round 25 2023

Punter’s Preview NRL Round 25 2023

Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 25 of the 2023 NRL season. We tipped Christian Welch to score the first try at $81 in Round 24! We also had Metcalf score first at $23 & Young Tonumipea score last at $19 as well as a bunch of any time try scorers get up.

Our Discord, Punter’s Preview article & podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.

Knights v Rabbitohs

Sun 20/8, 2pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Dane Gagai ATS @ $4.10 on Sportsbet

Greg Marzhew ATS @ $1.96 on Topsport

Dom Young ATS @ $1.96 on Betr

Lachlan Ilias ATS @ $5.60 on Sportsbet

Isaiah Tass ATS @ $3.50 & FT @ $23 on Neds

Jacob Saifiti FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble

Shaquai Mitchell FTS @ $91 on Sportsbet & LTS @ $81 on Dabble

Daniel Saifiti FTS2H @ $71 on Sportsbet

Matt Croker FTS2H @ $51 on Sportsbet

Davvy Moale FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet

Leo Thompson FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365**

Adam Elliott FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365**

Tyson Gamble FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365**

Cam Murray FTS & LTS @ $41 on Dabble & Bet Right**

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

Gameday Update Sun 20/8 – For the anytime try scorer market – Gagai, Marzhew & Young are similar prices still and best on Betr. Ilias is a similar price and best on Sportsbet. Tass is $3.10 at best on Bet Right but he isn’t value anymore. For the first try scorer market – Gamble is still $41 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. We love this price. Murray is widely available at $34 for FTS & LTS which is OK but the $41 was a great price.

Now for the middle forwards. Remember we generally take starting middles for FTS & LTS (as they tend to be on at the start and end of games) and we take bench forwards for FTS2H.

Currently – Daniel Saifiti and Davvy Moale are $71 and $81 respectively to be the first try scorer in the 2nd half on Sportsbet. We love these prices. Matt Croker is $51 on Sportsbet and Pointsbet for FTS2H – we wouldn’t take him at any lower. And TBH with so many good picks around if you’re not on already this could be a miss.

For starting forwards – we have Jacob Saifiti for $81, Shaq Mitchell at $76 and Leo Thompson at $71 – all on Sportsbet, which we really like. Adam Elliott is $67 FTS on Bet Right currently which we love.

For last try scorer – Shaq Mitchell at $76, Jacob Saifiti at $67 on Sportsbet + Leo Thompson at $67 on Bet365. We wouldn’t take these guys below $67 so we’re still happy with these prices.

Wicky Preview Fri 18/8 – The Knights are likely to be missing Jackson Hastings even though he’s been named. They do get Bradman Best back and Daniel Saifiti looked good last week in his return to action after a few weeks off. The Rabbitohs have been travelling all over Australia and generally looked unimpressive. They travel to Newcastle this time and could have Tatola and Sele returning – both are in the reserves currently.

Dane Gagai is now $4.50 on Betr to score anytime. This is an incredible price considering our model has him priced at $3 and most bookies have him around $3.50-$4.10. He scored the first last week against the Bulldogs. Dom Young & Greg Marzhew are both $1.90 on TAB and also on Neds & PlayUp. Both priced clearly above our model and most other bookies. Ilias is $5.50 to score anytime on Dabble & Betr. Tass is now $3.10 at best on Topsport to score anytime but with so much value around in this game, we’re happy to pass on him at this price.

There are a ton of middle forwards we like for this game. The 4 new picks (at the bottom with ** at the end of the picks above) are all at those prices currently. The Saifiti brothers we like at $67 or above – Jacob is named to start (so we like FTS & LTS). Daniel is named on the bench (so we like FTS2H). Leo Thompson scored his first try last week – we love him at $81 for FTS & LTS. Adam Elliott has hit some good form and we love him at the $67 he currently is for FTS & LTS. Tyson Gamble scored two tries last week against the Dogs – with Hastings likely to be out, he’ll get more touches and we love the $41 for FTS & LTS for him. Matt Croker scored the first try in the 2nd half at $81 for us a month ago against the Storm – his odds are much shorter now – but he can storm over or chase a grubber, we generally like him as a pick at $51 but if he’s $61 or higher later we’d love it!

Cam Murray is one of the best middle forward try scorers in the NRL – we love him at $41 for FTS & LTS. Shaq Mitchell & Davvy Moale are still good picks at $81 for FTS/LTS & FTS2H respectively but with so many more picks added – these are on the second rung of our favourite picks.

Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!

Raiders v Bulldogs

Sun 20/8, 4.05pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Toby Sexton ATS @ $8.5 on Betr

Josh Papalii, Toby Sexton FTS @ $51 on Dabble (Papa is benched – $46 or above for FTS2H would be a value play!)

Joseph Tapine FTS & LTS @ $51 on Dabble

Tevita Pangai-Junior FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet

James Schiller FTS2H & LTS @ $29 on Neds

Josh Papalii LTS @ $46 on Sportsbet**

Toby Sexton LTS @ $51 on Sportsbet**

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Gameday Update Sun 20/8 – Joseph Tapine is $51 for FTS & LTS still on Bet365 which we still like. Josh Papalii is $46 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet – we wouldn’t take him at anything below this number but $46 is still a good price. Toby Sexton is still $51 on Bet Right & Betr for FTS & $51 for LTS on Sportsbet – we love these prices. We’ve added Papalii & Sexton LTS officially as picks above. Sexton is $8.50 at best ATS on Betr – our model loves this – it has him priced at $6.20! Schiller is still $29-31 for FTS2H & LTS on Neds – still worth a small play as it’s almost 2x if he fills in in the backline later in the game. Pangai-Junior is still $51 FTS2H on a few sites – that’s the lowest number we’d take on him. The value is at $61 or higher for him FTS2H.

Wicky Preview Fri 18/8 – Both sides got humiliated last Sunday. The Raiders had an impressive recent record against the Storm and the Dogs finally had most of their first choice team on the park – so there were no excuses! The Raiders are literally playing for the season – we think their forward leaders will step up and get the job done, but the Dogs should be better for the run with chemistry slowly building throughout their squad.

Toby Sexton is still $8.25 to score anytime on Sportsbet which is our model’s favourite anytime try scorer pick for this game. Joseph Tapine is $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Him and Josh Papalii are also $51 for FTS on Bet RightToby Sexton is $51 for FTS on Bet Right and is $51 & $46 for FTS & LTS respectively on Sportsbet – which is our model’s favourite first try scorer pick for this game. Tapine & Papalii running at an underwhelming Dogs pack after being mauled by the Storm last week is a tantalising prospect – but we wouldn’t play them under $41.

James Schiller is an outside on the back for the Raiders. It’s always a risk that he may not even get on the field – but if there is an injury or he’s given an opportunity in the backline, the $29 is almost 2x the price he’d be for FTS2H & LTS so we’re happy to take the risk with a small play on him. Tevita Pangai Junior just announced he’s retiring to pursue a boxing career. We won on him to score first at $67 a couple of months ago – we love him as a pick and we think he’ll be out there wanting to prove a point so $61 or more for FTS2H (which he is on Sportsbet currently) is a great price.

Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!

Cowboys v Sharks

Thu 17/8, 7.50pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Ronaldo Mulitalo ATS @ $2.05 & FTS @ $11 on Betr (Mulitalo ATS got up)

Peta Hiku FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365**
Luciano Leilua FTS @ $34 on Bet365**

Sione Katoa ATS @ $2.15 on Neds

Cam McInnes FTS @ $67 on Dabble & Neds

Braden Uele FTS & LTS @ $51 on Dabble & Bet365

Heilum Luki LTS @ $26 on Dabble + TAB/365

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Wicky Preview 17/8 – The Cowboys are fresh off the bye and only missing Val Homles as they take on a much improved Sharks side in North Queensland.

For the anytime try scorer market – Sione Katoa is now $2.15 on Neds & Mulitalo is $2.01 on Topsport. They’re 2 of the 3 favourite ATS plays from our model for this game. Cam McInnes is $67 to score first on Neds. Lukis is $29 on Neds to score last. Uele is $46 to score last on Sportsbet and $51 on Neds to score first. We’ve also added the Hiku & Leilua plays above – ** means they are new plays.

Braden Uele is one of our favourite middle forward try scorers. He comes up against his old club the Cowboys and we think he’s a great pick at $46 or above to score 1st or last in this one. Cam McInnes has scored a couple of tries recently and looked great for the Sharks – we love him at $61 or above for FTS or LTS. Luki is a beast of a ball runner – anything at $26 or above is a great price for him LTS. He should come on an play on an edge in the last 20-30 minutes of the game.

Luciano Leilua is a powerful ball runner and we love the $34 for him to score first – he may be off the field or in the middle of the park later when Luki comes on so we’ve decided not to play LTS. Katoa and Mulitalo are pure value plays based off the edge when you look at their best price available compared to our model.

Warriors v Manly

Fri 18/8, 6pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Adam Pompey ATS @ $3.30 on Sportsbet & Betr

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak FTS @ $8 on Betr

Toa Sipley FTS & LTS @ $71 on Sportsbet

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Wicky Preview – The Warriors have been underwhelming the last couple of weeks after the bye but this is their shot to put a score on a Manly side who are missing a few troops and have to travel to NZ with only 3 rounds to go and not much to play for in 2023!

Adam Pompey is now $3.20 to score a try on Dabble – he has been in good form but this now only marginal value. The same goes for Dallin Watene-Zelezniak. He’s been in great form but he’s now $7 at best to score first (on TAB & Betr) which is a good pick but around fair value.

Toa Sipley has looked impressive for a few weeks – we’ve had him as a try scorer pick for a weeks but frustrating he scored the 2nd try last week against the Panthers (we had him tipped for FTS & LTS). He’s currently $81 for FTS & LTS which we love on Bet365.

Eels v Roosters

Fri 18/8, 8pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Will Penisini ATS $4 on Neds. 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $8.75 on Neds**

Drew Hutchison ATS @ $5.1 on Sportsbet

Joey Manu ATS @ $2.9 on Neds. 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $6.2 on Neds**

Siua Wong FTS @ $34 on Dabble

Lindsay Collins FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble

Reagan Campbell-Gillard FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble & Bet365

Wiremu Greig FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Wicky Preview Fri 18/8 – The Eels have lost Mitch Moses for the season but do regain Sivo and Campbell-Gillard for this one. The Roosters get Angus Crichton back on the bench. These sides are both unlikely to make the top 8 – but if they lose this one, they can start booking their off-season holidays!

Hutchison, Penisini & Manu are our model’s three favourite value picks in the anytime try scorer market for this game. Hutchison is priced at $5.50 on Betr, Penisini & Manu are $3.90 and $3 on Neds respectively. All 3 are the perfect mix of being noticeably higher priced than our model and/or other bookies. Hutchison’s coming off a double last week and Penisini and Manu are both gun right-side centres who we can see getting over the line. The 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer prices for Neds are noticeably higher than other bookies for these two and we love the prices here.

Siua Wong has had two linebreaks & a try in limited game time early in his NRL career. He’s now $41 to score the first try on Bet365 which is incredible value considering we already loved him at $34! Raegan Campbell-Gillard is $67 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Lindsay Collins is $67 for FTS & $61 for LTS on Sportsbet. RCG & Collins have both shown the ability to run good lines close to try line in 2023 – we like them at $61 or above.

Wiremu Greig is someone who we called out earlier in the season as a future try scorer. He had two linebreaks in the game that he finally did score a try, however, he then had a 10 week break. He played 39 minutes last week and he’s named on the bench again so we love him at $61 or above for FTS2H – he’s current $67 on Sportsbet!

Wests Tigers v Dolphins

Sat 19/8, 3pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Jesse Bromwich FTS @ $81 on Dabble & Bet Right

Herman Ese’ese FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble & Betr/Sportsbet

Harrison Graham FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365**

Jarrod Wallace LTS @ $67 on Bet365**

Stefano Utoikamanu FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet Right**

Mark Nicholls FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365**

Luke Brooks ATS @ $4.60 on Dabble & Sportsbet (Void – he’s ruled out)

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Gameday Update 19/8 – Jesse Bromwich & Herman Ese’ese are $81 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 – we love the price for both of these forwards, especially now that Brooks and Starford To’a are out and this should be a much closer game!

Stefano Utoikmanu is $34 for LTS now – too short. He is however still $41 for FTS on Sportsbet, Betr & Dabble. Nicholls is $41 for FTS & LTS on 365 – we think this OK at best. Harrison Graham is $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 – this is still decent value. Wallace is into $51 for LTS on 365 – he may not be on the field and the price is now marginal so we’d leave this price.

Wicky Preview Fri 18/8 – A lot of the value is in middle forwards for this game. Harrison Graham will start at hooker for Marshall-King whose season is unfortunately over. He’s $67 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 – all other bookies have him at $51 or less and even though the Tigers are 8 point favourites, they are still last on the ladder so we don’t mind the price here!

Jarrod Wallace is named on the bench but he does get a second spell at times and we love the $67 for LTS on Bet365 even though it’s a risk whether he’ll be on the field or not. He almost dived over to score the last try last week but miraculously offloaded to put Isaako over. Stefano Utoikamanu is one of our favourite try scorers. $41 is awfully short for a middle forward – but in the 31 NRL games he has started on the field, he’s already scored the first try twice and last time three times! That is a freakish strike rate and we love the $41 price against an injury-ravaged Dolphins side.

Ese’ese, Jesse Bromwich & Nicholls are named to start in the pack for the Dolphins. We like the prices for all of them for FTS & LTS. They are $81, $81 & $51 respectively for FTS & LTS on Bet365 as well as a couple of other bookies. We wouldn’t play Bromwich and Nicholls below these prices but Ese’ese is good value even at $67 or above.

Titans v Panthers

Sat 19/8, 5.30pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

David Fifita ATS @ $5.25 on Betr + FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365 & TAB (David Fifita ATS won)

Jarome Luai ATS @ $3.60 on Dabble + Sportsbet/at Topsport

Tino Faasamaleuai FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble & TAB/Bet365

Aaron Schoupp FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365

Moses Leota FTS & LTS @ $51 on Dabble & Bet Right**

James Fisher-Harris & Lindsay Smith FTS @ $51 on Bet Right**

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Gameday Update 19/8 – Jarome Luai is $3.65 on Topsport now – our model has him at $2.84 so this is clear value. David Fifita is still $5.25 to score antime on Betr. Tino is still $67 for FTS & LTS on Dabble which we love. Aaron Schoupp is still $51 for FTS on Bet Right but only $41 at best for LTS which we’d leave. We’d take David Fifita at $30 or above for FTS/LTS -he’s $31 for FTS on Bet Right and $31 for LTS on TAB currently.

We’ve also added Moses Leota FTS & LTS @ $51 available on Bet Right and Dabble. Lindsay Smith and Fisher-Harris are also $51 for FTS on Bet Right. We like the price for all 3 against a noticeably understrength Titans side – one of them will be on the bench but Bet Right has been great with voiding bets for FTS when players aren’t starting.

Wicky Preview Fri 18/8 – The Titans’ spine includes Kini, Campbell and Weaver – three rookies who probably weigh as much as Moses Leota on day one of pre-season! The Panthers get Luai, Kenny, Leniu & Peachey back and the Titans have nothing to play for in 2023. This could get ugly.

Jarome Luai is still $3.60 on a few bookies including Sportsbet & Dabble. Our model has him priced at $2.85 with the Panthers being such strong favourites. Clear value to kick off your same game multis in this one! David Fifita scores a try one in every 2.86 NRL games he plays – the $5.25 on Betr is a great price as our model even has him priced at $4.18 after considering the fact that they are 20 point underdogs to the Panthers! He’s now $29 and $31 for FTS & LTS on TAB and a couple of other bookies which we still like. Aaron Schoupp is now $51 for FTS on Bet Right & $41 for LTS which is still OK value but we liked the $51 as a price rather than him as a pick.

Tino Faasamaleuai has taken over Cam Murray and Josh Papalii to now have the best try scoring strike rate for a middle forward in the NRL! He scored the third try last week which won a 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer bet for our Premium members and an ATS bet from our article! He’s currently $61 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet at best which is OK but we think he’ll pop up at $67 or higher on game day so do keep an eye out on our OCT for the best price. 

Dragons v Storm

Sat 19/8, 7.35pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Mikaele Ravalawa ATS @ $2.50 on Betr (Ravalawa scored a try so ATS won!)

Eliesa Katoa FTS @ $23 on Dabble 

Michael Molo & Blake Lawrie FTS & LTS @ $101 on Bet365**

Tui Kamikamica FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365**

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Gameday Update 19/8 – Kamikamica is still $51 for FTS on Bet Right which we love but $41 at best for LTS which is OK at best. Lawrie and Michael Molo are now $81 for FTS & LTS which is back closer to a fair price. Eli Katoa is still $23 for FTS on Betr & Dabble. Ravalawa is $2.38 to score anytime on Topsport which our model still loves (model’s priced him at $2).

Wicky Preview Fri 18/8 – The Dragons get Zac Lomax & Frank Molo back and the Storm COULD lose Cam Munster due to the upcoming birth of his second child. Aside from this game being in Sydney and the Dragons having two sets of twins (Couchman’s & Feagai’s) + two Molo’s – there’s not much to get excited about for the Dragons up against a Storm side who blitzed the Raiders last week.

Mikaele Ravalawa has been in great try scoring form and with Zac Lomax back for the Dragons – we love the $2.39 for him to score anytime. Our model has it priced at $2, his career strike rate would have him priced at $1.84 and most bookies have him at $2.25 or less. Eli Katoa is widely available at $21 for FTS & LTS – it’s much closer to a fair price now but he did score a try last week and we like the pick generally.

Michael Molo & Blake Lawrie have gone out to $101 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. We love Michael Molo as a try scorer and Lawrie has scored a couple of tries this year and has generally looked much better in 2023. We’d play Michael Molo at $81 or above and Lawrie at $91 or above for FTS & LTS. Tui Kamikamica is one of our favourite try scorer picks – $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 is a good price – Harry Grant is excellent at putting middle forwards over for the Storm.

If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.

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