Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 21 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round. Our content, data tools & Discord can be found here for free.
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That last minute Wighton try made it 2 @dabblecomau same gamers in 2 days, at juicy odds too 👀 Reynolds scoring the last @ $41 was a nice end to the night🔥
Our Discord, tips in the Punter's Preview + odds comparison tool are free to check out herehttps://t.co/Bi2TlLBxe9#NRL pic.twitter.com/rgrrVlIzzG
— Wicky (@wickyai) July 21, 2023
Panthers v Bulldogs
Sun 23/7, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
James Fisher-Harris FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet Right & Bet365
Scott Sorenson FTS @ $23 on Bet Right
Paul Alamoti FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet Right, Bet365 & Neds
Matt Burton FTS & LTS @ $51 on TAB, Dabble & PlayUp
Max King & Raymond Faitala-Mariner FTS @ $176 on Bet Right
Kurtis Morrin FTS2H @ $126 on Neds
Tevita Pangai Junior FTS2H @ $81 on Neds & PointsBet
Reed Mahoney FTS & LTS @ $81 on Dabble, TAB & PlayUp (benched, don’t play fts/cashout if you can!)
Jacob Preston** FTS @ $61 on Bet Right (void -ruled out)
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sun 23/7 – Fisher-Harris is still $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Sorenson is $21 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Both picks are 10-25% higher than our model’s price and the market so we still like these plays. The Bulldogs plays are all roughly the same price. We like these picks at these prices – we wouldn’t recommend getting on if you see a much lower price. Some of our favourite picks from the Dogs are Burton, Mahoney and Preston if they’re at $51, $81 and $51 respectively (or higher)!
The odds comparison tool (OCT) is updated so you can see where to find the best price. Obviously the Panthers are expected to maul the Dogs today. But we love juicy try scorer picks at big odds and all we need is the Dogs to score a try at the right time. We’d be staying away from Dogs anytime try scorer picks in this one.
Sharks v Manly
Sun 23/7, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Braydon Trindall FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Blayke Brailey FTS @ $41 & ATS @ $7 on Neds
Josh Aloiai FTS @ $71 on Topsport
Haumole Olakau’atu** FTS @ $23 on Bet Right
Cam McInnes** FTS2H @ $61 on Bet Right
Tom Hazelton** FTS2H @ $51 on Bet Right
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sun 23/7 – The Sharks left edge is missing Moylan, Talakai and Wilton for this game. So if you’re building same game multis – we love Manly’s right side players as picks. Cherry-Evans, Olakau’atu, Koula & Saab. We’ve added Olakau’atu as a pick as well as Cam McInnes FTS2H @ $61 – both on Bet Right. The Brailey and Trindall picks are the same price but Aloiai has gone to $61 at best on Sportsbet which is still decent value. We’ve also added Tom Hazelton FTS2H @ $51 on Bet Right as a pick – he’s scored two tries and almost got up for us again last week but it was brought back for a knock on!
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Dragons v Wests Tigers
Thu 20/7, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Brandon Wakeham First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $41 on PlayUp
John Bateman FTS @ $34 on Bet Right
Api Koroisau FTS @ $41 on Bet Right
Daine Laurie** FTS @ $41 on Bet Right
Stefano Utoikamanu** LTS @ $61 on Bet Right
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Thu 20/7 4.45pm – We’ve added the Laurie and Stefano Utoikamanu picks as they’re standout value on Bet Right. Unfortunately Wakeham, Bateman and Koroisau have now been crunched in and aren’t value for the First Try Scorer (FTS) market anymore.
Stefano Utoikamanu is a try scoring freak. He scores a try one in every 6 NRL games he’s played so far. He’s scored the last try one in every 16 NRL games he’s played. And he’s up against the Dragons! Bet Right had him at $71 earlier in the week to score the first try and now they have him at $61 to score the last try, which we absolutely love.
Daine Laurie is a talented footy player from the Penrith system. He hasn’t had a consistent run but the $41 for him to score first on Bet Right is significantly higher than $31 our model has him priced at. Every other bookie has him at $31 or less as well.
Warriors v Raiders
Fri 21/7, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Josh Papali’i FTS @ $71 on Bet Right & ATS @ $10.5 on Neds
Emre Guler FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $67 on Neds (Now $81 on Bet Right)
Corey Horsburgh, Joe Tapine & Zac Woolford FTS @ $71 on Bet Right
Jamal Fogarty** FTS @ $41 on Bet Right
Pasami Saulo** FTS2H @ $91 on Bet Right
Hudson Young & Matt Timoko FTS @ $26 on Bet Right
Elliott Whitehead FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Fri 21/7 – Josh Papali’i is now $67 for FTS & $11.50 on Neds which are incredible prices for him. Tapine is still $71 to score first on Bet Right & Woolford is $67 to score first on Bet Right & Neds – which are both great prices. Guler is now $81 to score first in the 2nd half on Bet Right which we love, considering he was already a value pick at $67!
Young and Timoko are both now $21 at best for FTS so OK value at best. Whitehead is now $34 on most sites for FTS & LTS which again is OK value but not as good as the $41 he was before. Horsburgh is $56 for FTS at best on Topsport.
We’ve added Fogarty @ $41 to score first & Saulo at $91 to score first in the 2nd half on Bet Right as new picks.
Josh Papali’i is the best middle forward try scorer in the NRL. He scores a try one in every 5 NRL games he plays. The $11.50 for him to score anytime and $67 to score first are ridiculous value. Tapine is a beast who scored only a couple of weeks ago – we love the $71 for him to score first on Bet Right as well as the Raiders’ hooker (Woolford) at $67 to scoot over first on Bet Right.
We nailed Fogarty to score the first try at $46 last month and we love the $41s for him to do it again today on Bet Right. The Raiders’ beast off the bench Emre Guler was already a value pick at $67 to score the first try in the 2nd half earlier in the week. He’s now $81 on Bet Right and we love the price up against a smaller Warriors bench. Pasami Saulo at $91 on Bet Right to score the first try in the 2nd half is similar reasoning to Guler. We don’t think he’s as good of a ball runner as Guler, however, we love the $91 price tag!
Rabbitohs v Broncos
Fri 21/7, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Adam Reynolds FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet Right & Unibet (Reynolds scored the last try @ $41)
Jai Arrow FTS @ $67 & ATS @ $10 on Neds (crazy odds – he’s named to start on an edge)
Billy Walters FTS @ $51 on Bet Right & Neds
Damien Cook FTS @ $41 on Bet Right
Brendan Piakura FTS @ $41 on Bet Right & ATS @ $6 on Neds (Void – ruled out)
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Fri 21/7 – Arrow is still great odds on Neds. Walters is still $51 for FTS on Neds. Reynolds is still $41 for FTS & LTS on Unibet. Cook is now $41 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Piakura is $5.75 ATS on Neds but only $34 at best for FTS which is OK value.
Arrow is clear value. Named on the edge for the Rabbitohs, as long as he’s confirmed to start there in final teams – he’s about 1.5x the price he should be! Walters scored a try last week for the Broncos and has looked much better in recent weeks. The $51 for him to score first is clearly better than most other bookies ($41 at best). His opposing hooker Damien Cook is $41 and similar value ($34 or less on other bookies).
Piakura has Jordan Riki’s right edge back row spot next to Adam Reynolds. We love the $5.75 for him to score anytime – about 10% better priced than any other bookie or our model suggests he should be! Reynolds is 15-20% higher priced than our model and other bookies for the FTS/LTS market. We think the $34s on most bookies is OK value but the $41s on Unibet is a standout price.
Titans v Roosters
Sat 22/7, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Phil Sami FTS @ $15 on Dabble. ATS @ $2.50 on Dabble ** LTS @ $15 on Dabble also (added 12.30pm game day)
David Fifita FTS & LTS @ $21 & ATS @ $3.50 on Bet365
James Tedesco ATS @ $2.75 on Pointsbet (Teddy scored!)
Brandon Smith ATS @ $6 on Neds
Klese Haas FTS @ $41 on Bet Right
Lindsay Collins** FTS @ $71 on Bet Right
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sat 22/7, 9am – We’ve added the anytime try scorer pick for Sami as well as the initial FTS @ $15 for Sami. We’ve also added Collins @ $71 for FTS on Bet Right.
David Fifita is still $3.40 anytime on 365 which we still like. He’s still $21 for FTS & LTS on 365 and also $21 for FTS on Bet Right. Klese Haas is still $41 FTS on Betr. Brandon Smith is still $5.80 on Neds for ATS which we still like. Tedesco is still $2.75 on Pointsbet.
There are rumours that Phil Sami might be ruled out of this game. If he is, the plays would be voided so there’s nothing to lose. If he does play – our model, his historical strike rate and other bookies all have him around $10-12 to score first & he’s $15 for FTS & LTS on Dabble! Our model has him just over $2 to score a try and Dabble has him at $2.50. We love the price on all things Sami on Dabble!
David Fifita has been in freakish form in the NRL over the last couple of months. Our model and his career strike rate would have him priced around $2.90. The $3.40 on 365 is a standout pick for him to score anytime. The $21 for FTS & LTS is also a good pick – remember the Roosters are in 14th spot and not the side they have been for the last few years!
James Tedesco looked much better in Origin 3 and their season’s on the line. With no Tino for the Roosters, there’s reason to think the Roosters can jag a win to revive their season. Our model has him priced at $2.19. His career strike rate converted to odds would be $2.34. You can see why we love the $2.75 on Pointsbet for him to score anytime!
Brandon Smith to score a try anytime is 45% higher priced on Neds than other bookies. Klese Haas & Lindsay Collins at $41 and $71 to score first are 15% higher than our model’s price and more than 20% higher than the next bookie – clear value here.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Knights v Storm
Sat 22/7, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Greg Marzhew ATS @ $2.45 on Bet365 (This play won – Marzhew scored)
Dom Young ATS @ $2.30 on TAB & PlayUp (Young scored)
Matt Croker** FTS2H @ $81 on Bet Right (Croker scored the first try in the 2nd half at $81!)
Dane Gagai ATS @ $4.80 on Neds
Lachlan Fitzgibbon FTS @ $34 on Bet Right
Tyson Gamble FTS @ $51 on Neds
Leo Thompson FTS @ $91 on Bet Right
Adam Elliott** FTS & LTS @ $67 on Sportsbet
Jacob Saifiti** FTS2H @ $101 on Sportsbet
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sat 22/7, 9am – For the anytime try scorer market – Gagai is $5, Marzhew $2.40 and Young $2.20 on Betr. They are still good prices on the sites they were originally quoted at above. For FTS – Fitzgibbon is still $34 on 365 & Betr, Gamble is still $51 on Neds & Thompson is $91 on Sportsbet. We’ve added Elliott, Saifiti & Croker as value picks above.
We realise all our plays are pro Knights here. But that’s where the value is for this game! The Knights are playing at home and are in good form. Ponga loves the left edge of the Knights – Fitzgibbon, Best & Marzhew are great options if you’re putting same game multis together. We also love the value on offer for their forwards.
Marzhew, Young & Gagai are all noticeably higher priced on the sites quoted above than our model thinks they should be. The Knights score the highest % of tries through their wingers of any NRL side this season – we feel confident adding them to our value picks today.
For the first try scorer market – Fitzgibbon and Gamble on the Knights’ left edge are great value at $34 and $51 respectively. Fitzgibbon is more about the matchup (left edge – Ponga’s favoured side) and Gamble’s more about the number ($51s).
We love the prices for Elliott, Jacob Saifiti and Matt Croker on Sportsbet & Bet Right. Adam Elliott’s starting – so we like the FTS & LTS @ $67 (anything above $61 is OK in case the prices change). Jacob Saifiti and Croker will be coming off the bench so anything at $71 or above is a good price for them.
Cowboys v Eels
Sat 22/7, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Sean Russell ATS @ $3. FTS & LTS @ $17 on Bet365 (This won – Russell scored)
Mitch Moses ATS @ $6.50 on TAB (Moses scored the last try so ATS & LTS @ $41 both won)
Will Penisini ATS @ $4.50 on TAB & Dabble. FTS & LTS @ $31 on Dabble.
Val Holmes ATS @ $2.70 on Dabble
Shaun Lane ATS @ $6 & FTS @ $41 on Neds
Haze Dunster** FTS & LTS @ $17 on Bet Right
Okahifi Ogden & Junior Paulo** FTS @ $81 on Bet Right
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sat 22/7, 9am – We’ve added Dunster, Ogden & Paulo as try scorer picks on Bet Right.
Moses is $6 for ATS & $41 for FTS & LTS which we love. Russell is now $16 for FTS, $15 for LTS and $2.70 for ATS on Bet Right which we still like. Holmes is now $2.63 on Betr for ATS which we still like. Lane is now $34 at best for FTS which is OK but he’s still $5.80 for ATS on Neds which we still like. Penisini is now $4.60 on Betr which is crazy value. He’s $26 for FTS & LTS on Pointsbet which is still really good value.
Let’s start with the anytime try scorer (ATS) picks – Penisini and Holmes are standout value picks. Our model (which takes pre-game line, total + player/team stats etc) into consideration has them priced at $3.10 and $2.10 respectively to score anytime. Penisini’s odds according to our model should be around $22 for FTS, however, he has scored the first try one in every 10 games he’s played! The $26 available for FTS is still a great price.
Moses is also a clear value pick at $41 for FTS & LTS. The prices for Dunster, Russell and Lane are still good value but probably better for multis/same game multis. The first try scorer prices for Ogden & Paulo are great value – Hands is doing a great job filling in for Hodgson and RCG did score the first try for the Eels last week. We love the prices for these big boppers.
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
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