Punter’s Preview NRL Round 21 2023

Punter’s Preview NRL Round 21 2023

Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 21 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round. Our content, data tools & Discord can be found here for free.¬†

We’ve also recently launched Wicky Premium. Our free users will still have our Discord (3k users), content & data tools. But for early access, pre-game prompts for team changes & the full OCT (11 bookies, 4 try scorer markets) – come check out Wicky Premium

Panthers v Bulldogs

Sun 23/7, 2pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

James Fisher-Harris FTS & LTS @ $51  on Bet Right & Bet365

Scott Sorenson FTS @ $23 on Bet Right

Paul Alamoti FTS & LTS @ $51  on Bet Right, Bet365 & Neds

Matt Burton FTS & LTS @ $51 on TAB, Dabble & PlayUp

Max King & Raymond Faitala-Mariner FTS @ $176  on Bet Right

Kurtis Morrin FTS2H @ $126 on Neds

Tevita Pangai Junior FTS2H @ $81 on Neds & PointsBet
Reed Mahoney¬†FTS & LTS @ $81 on Dabble, TAB & PlayUp (benched, don’t play fts/cashout if you can!)

Jacob Preston** FTS @ $61 on Bet Right (void -ruled out)

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Get the best out of Wicky's previews, data tools & Discord community
Get the best out of Wicky’s previews, data tools & Discord community

Update Sun 23/7 –¬†Fisher-Harris is still $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Sorenson is $21 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Both picks are 10-25% higher than our model’s price and the market so we still like these plays. The Bulldogs plays are all roughly the same price. We like these picks at these prices – we wouldn’t recommend getting on if you see a much lower price. Some of our favourite picks from the Dogs are Burton, Mahoney and Preston if they’re at $51, $81 and $51 respectively (or higher)!

The odds comparison tool (OCT) is updated so you can see where to find the best price. Obviously the Panthers are expected to maul the Dogs today. But we love juicy try scorer picks at big odds and all we need is the Dogs to score a try at the right time. We’d be staying away from Dogs anytime try scorer picks in this one.

Sharks v Manly

Sun 23/7, 4.05pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Braydon Trindall FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365

Blayke Brailey FTS @ $41 & ATS @ $7 on Neds

Josh Aloiai FTS @ $71 on Topsport

Haumole Olakau’atu** FTS @ $23 on Bet Right

Cam McInnes** FTS2H @ $61 on Bet Right

Tom Hazelton** FTS2H @ $51 on Bet Right

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Bet Right Wicky NRL Odds
Bet Right Wicky NRL Odds Sat 22/7 9am

Update Sun 23/7 –¬†The Sharks left edge is missing Moylan, Talakai and Wilton for this game. So if you’re building same game multis – we love Manly’s right side players as picks. Cherry-Evans, Olakau’atu, Koula & Saab. We’ve added Olakau’atu as a pick as well as Cam McInnes FTS2H @ $61 – both on Bet Right. The Brailey and Trindall picks are the same price but Aloiai has gone to $61 at best on Sportsbet which is still decent value. We’ve also added Tom Hazelton FTS2H @ $51 on Bet Right as a pick – he’s scored two tries and almost got up for us again last week but it was brought back for a knock on!

Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!

Dragons v Wests Tigers

Thu 20/7, 7.50pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Brandon Wakeham First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $41 on PlayUp

John Bateman FTS @ $34 on Bet Right

Api Koroisau FTS @ $41 on Bet Right

Daine Laurie** FTS @ $41 on Bet Right

Stefano Utoikamanu** LTS @ $61 on Bet Right

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Update Thu 20/7 4.45pm –¬†We’ve added the Laurie and Stefano Utoikamanu picks as they’re standout value on Bet Right. Unfortunately Wakeham, Bateman and Koroisau have now been crunched in and aren’t value for the First Try Scorer (FTS) market anymore.

Stefano Utoikamanu is a try scoring freak. He scores a try one in every 6 NRL games he’s played so far. He’s scored the last try one in every 16 NRL games he’s played. And he’s up against the Dragons! Bet Right had him at $71 earlier in the week to score the first try and now they have him at $61 to score the last try, which we absolutely love.

Daine Laurie¬†is a talented footy player from the Penrith system. He hasn’t had a consistent run but the $41 for him to score first on Bet Right is significantly higher than $31 our model has him priced at. Every other bookie has him at $31 or less as well.

Wicky NRL Try Scorer Stats Cards
Wicky NRL Try Scorer Stats Cards

Warriors v Raiders

Fri 21/7, 6pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Josh Papali’i FTS @ $71 on Bet Right & ATS @ $10.5 on Neds

Emre Guler FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $67 on Neds (Now $81 on Bet Right)

Corey Horsburgh, Joe Tapine & Zac Woolford FTS @ $71 on Bet Right

Jamal Fogarty** FTS @ $41 on Bet Right

Pasami Saulo** FTS2H @ $91 on Bet Right

Hudson Young & Matt Timoko FTS @ $26 on Bet Right

Elliott Whitehead FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Update Fri 21/7 –¬†Josh Papali’i is now $67 for FTS & $11.50 on Neds which are incredible prices for him. Tapine is still $71 to score first on Bet Right¬†& Woolford is $67 to score first on Bet Right¬†& Neds – which are both great prices. Guler is now $81 to score first in the 2nd half on Bet Right which we love, considering he was already a value pick at $67!

Young and Timoko are both now $21 at best for FTS so OK value at best. Whitehead is now $34 on most sites for FTS & LTS which again is OK value but not as good as the $41 he was before. Horsburgh is $56 for FTS at best on Topsport.

We’ve added¬†Fogarty @ $41 to score first & Saulo at $91 to score first in the 2nd half on Bet Right as new picks.

Josh Papali’i¬†is the best middle forward try scorer in the NRL. He scores a try one in every 5 NRL games he plays. The $11.50 for him to score anytime and $67 to score first are ridiculous value.¬†Tapine¬†is a beast who scored only a couple of weeks ago – we love the $71 for him to score first on Bet Right as well as the Raiders’ hooker (Woolford) at $67 to scoot over first on Bet Right.

We nailed¬†Fogarty¬†to score the first try at $46 last month and we love the $41s for him to do it again today on Bet Right. The Raiders’ beast off the bench Emre Guler¬†was already a value pick at $67 to score the first try in the 2nd half earlier in the week. He’s now $81 on Bet Right and we love the price up against a smaller Warriors bench.¬†Pasami Saulo¬†at $91 on Bet Right to score the first try in the 2nd half is similar reasoning to Guler. We don’t think he’s as good of a ball runner as Guler, however, we love the $91 price tag!

Rabbitohs v Broncos

Fri 21/7, 8pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Adam Reynolds FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet Right & Unibet (Reynolds scored the last try @ $41)

Jai Arrow FTS @ $67 & ATS @ $10 on Neds (crazy odds – he’s named to start on an edge)

Billy Walters FTS @ $51 on Bet Right & Neds

Damien Cook FTS @ $41 on Bet Right

Brendan Piakura FTS @ $41 on Bet Right & ATS @ $6 on Neds¬†(Void –¬†ruled out)

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Update Fri 21/7 –¬†Arrow is still great odds on Neds. Walters is still $51 for FTS on Neds. Reynolds is still $41 for FTS & LTS on Unibet. Cook is now $41 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Piakura is $5.75 ATS on Neds but only $34 at best for FTS which is OK value.

Arrow¬†is clear value. Named on the edge for the Rabbitohs, as long as he’s confirmed to start there in final teams – he’s about 1.5x the price he should be! Walters scored a try last week for the Broncos and has looked much better in recent weeks. The $51 for him to score first is clearly better than most other bookies ($41 at best). His opposing hooker Damien Cook is $41 and similar value ($34 or less on other bookies).

Piakura¬†has Jordan Riki’s right edge back row spot next to Adam Reynolds. We love the $5.75 for him to score anytime – about 10% better priced than any other bookie or our model suggests he should be!¬†Reynolds¬†is 15-20% higher priced than our model and other bookies for the FTS/LTS market. We think the $34s on most bookies is OK value but the $41s on Unibet is a standout price.

Titans v Roosters

Sat 22/7, 3pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Phil Sami FTS @ $15 on Dabble. ATS @ $2.50 on Dabble ** LTS @ $15 on Dabble also (added 12.30pm game day)

David Fifita FTS & LTS @ $21 & ATS @ $3.50 on Bet365

James Tedesco ATS @ $2.75 on Pointsbet (Teddy scored!)

Brandon Smith ATS @ $6 on Neds

Klese Haas FTS @ $41 on Bet Right

Lindsay Collins** FTS @ $71 on Bet Right

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Update Sat 22/7, 9am –¬†We’ve added the anytime try scorer pick for Sami as well as the initial FTS @ $15 for Sami. We’ve also added Collins @ $71 for FTS on Bet Right.

David Fifita is still $3.40 anytime on 365 which we still like. He’s still $21 for FTS & LTS on 365 and also $21 for FTS on Bet Right. Klese Haas is still $41 FTS on Betr. Brandon Smith is still $5.80 on Neds for ATS which we still like. Tedesco is still $2.75 on Pointsbet.

There are rumours that¬†Phil Sami¬†might be ruled out of this game. If he is, the plays would be voided so there’s nothing to lose. If he does play – our model, his historical strike rate and other bookies all have him around $10-12 to score first & he’s $15 for FTS & LTS on Dabble! Our model has him just over $2 to score a try and Dabble has him at $2.50. We love the price on all things Sami on Dabble!

David Fifita has been in freakish form in the NRL over the last couple of months. Our model and his career strike rate would have him priced around $2.90. The $3.40 on 365 is a standout pick for him to score anytime. The $21 for FTS & LTS is also a good pick Рremember the Roosters are in 14th spot and not the side they have been for the last few years!

James Tedesco¬†looked much better in Origin 3 and their season’s on the line. With no Tino for the Roosters, there’s reason to think the Roosters can jag a win to revive their season. Our model has him priced at $2.19. His career strike rate converted to odds would be $2.34. You can see why we love the $2.75 on Pointsbet for him to score anytime!

Brandon Smith¬†to score a try anytime is 45% higher priced on Neds than other bookies.¬†Klese Haas & Lindsay Collins¬†at $41 and $71 to score first are 15% higher than our model’s price and more than 20% higher than the next bookie – clear value here.

Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!

Knights v Storm

Sat 22/7, 5.30pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Greg Marzhew ATS @ $2.45 on Bet365 (This play won РMarzhew scored)

Dom Young ATS @ $2.30 on TAB & PlayUp (Young scored)

Matt Croker** FTS2H @ $81 on Bet Right (Croker scored the first try in the 2nd half at $81!)

Dane Gagai ATS @ $4.80 on Neds

Lachlan Fitzgibbon FTS @ $34 on Bet Right

Tyson Gamble FTS @ $51 on Neds

Leo Thompson FTS @ $91  on Bet Right

Adam Elliott** FTS & LTS @ $67 on Sportsbet

Jacob Saifiti** FTS2H @ $101 on Sportsbet

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Wicky NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool (OCT)
Wicky NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool (OCT)

Update Sat 22/7, 9am –¬†For the anytime try scorer market – Gagai is $5, Marzhew $2.40 and Young $2.20 on Betr. They are still good prices on the sites they were originally quoted at above. For FTS – Fitzgibbon is still $34 on 365 & Betr, Gamble is still $51 on Neds & Thompson is $91 on Sportsbet. We’ve added Elliott, Saifiti & Croker as value picks above.

We realise all our plays are pro Knights here. But that’s where the value is for this game! The Knights are playing at home and are in good form. Ponga loves the left edge of the Knights – Fitzgibbon, Best & Marzhew are great options if you’re putting same game multis together. We also love the value on offer for their forwards.

Marzhew, Young & Gagai are all noticeably higher priced on the sites quoted above than our model thinks they should be. The Knights score the highest % of tries through their wingers of any NRL side this season Рwe feel confident adding them to our value picks today.

For the first try scorer market –¬†Fitzgibbon and Gamble¬†on the Knights’ left edge are great value at $34 and $51 respectively. Fitzgibbon is more about the matchup (left edge – Ponga’s favoured side) and Gamble’s more about the number ($51s).

We love the prices for¬†Elliott, Jacob Saifiti and Matt Croker on Sportsbet & Bet Right. Adam Elliott’s starting – so we like the FTS & LTS @ $67 (anything above $61 is OK in case the prices change). Jacob Saifiti and Croker will be coming off the bench so anything at $71 or above is a good price for them.

Cowboys v Eels

Sat 22/7, 7.35pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Sean Russell ATS @ $3. FTS & LTS @ $17 on Bet365 (This won РRussell scored)

Mitch Moses ATS @ $6.50 on TAB (Moses scored the last try so ATS & LTS @ $41 both won)

Will Penisini ATS @ $4.50 on TAB & Dabble. FTS & LTS @ $31 on Dabble.

Val Holmes ATS @ $2.70 on Dabble

Shaun Lane ATS @ $6 & FTS @ $41 on Neds

Haze Dunster** FTS & LTS @ $17 on Bet Right

Okahifi Ogden & Junior Paulo** FTS @ $81 on Bet Right

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Update Sat 22/7, 9am –¬†We’ve added Dunster, Ogden & Paulo as try scorer picks on Bet Right.

Moses is $6 for ATS & $41 for FTS & LTS which we love. Russell is now $16 for FTS, $15 for LTS and $2.70 for ATS on Bet Right which we still like. Holmes is now $2.63 on Betr for ATS which we still like. Lane is now $34 at best for FTS which is OK but he’s still $5.80 for ATS on Neds which we still like. Penisini is now $4.60 on Betr which is crazy value. He’s $26 for FTS & LTS on Pointsbet which is still really good value.

Let’s start with the anytime try scorer (ATS) picks –¬†Penisini and Holmes¬†are standout value picks. Our model (which takes pre-game line, total + player/team stats etc) into consideration has them priced at $3.10 and $2.10 respectively to score anytime. Penisini’s odds according to our model should be around $22 for FTS, however, he has scored the first try one in every 10 games he’s played! The $26 available for FTS is still a great price.

Moses is also a clear value pick at $41 for FTS & LTS. The prices for Dunster, Russell and Lane are still good value but probably better for multis/same game multis. The first try scorer prices for Ogden & Paulo are great value РHands is doing a great job filling in for Hodgson and RCG did score the first try for the Eels last week. We love the prices for these big boppers.

If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.

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