Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 27 of the 2023 NRL season. We tipped Corey Waddell to score the first try at $41 in Round 26!
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So we've had Flegler (67), Walker (34), Neame (61) and JSaifiti (67) get up so far this weekend 🔥
Our preview article with tips + Discord are both free to check out here 👇https://t.co/Bi2TlLBxe9#NRL #RL #sportsbet #rugbyleague pic.twitter.com/Xe5YLOmpls
— Wicky (@wickyai) September 3, 2023
Titans v Bulldogs
Sun 3/9, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Kieran Foran & Toby Sexton 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $14 on Neds (This got up – Foran scored the 1st try!)
Kieran Foran ATS @ $5 & 2+ tries @ $41 & FTS @ $34 on Neds** (This ALL won – Foran scored the first and 2nd try!!)
Kurtis Morrin FTS2H @ $67 on Sportsbet** MORRIN scored the 1st try in the 2nd half!! He was $91 on game day!!
David Fifita FTS @ $15 on Bet Right**
David Fifita ATS @ $2.45 on Bet365
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Sun 3/9 – We’ve added a few more plays on Foran – he’s showing up as great model value and we can see him dummying and going straight through a feeble Bulldogs defence! David Fifita is $15 on Bet Right – it’s a standout price that won’t last long. We think he’s still fine to take at $13 – not value but a great pick. We’ve also added Kurtis Morrin at $67 FTS2h on Sportsbet – we’d take him at $56 or higher if his price gets crunched in. Toby Sexton is still $14 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer – he’s been great for us, scoring the last couple of weeks. He’s up against his old side and at a juicy price, we also like this pick.
Wicky Preview Wed 30/8 – The Titans keep putting up a fight even though their season was over a few weeks ago. They were on par with Melbourne with 20 minutes to go at AAMI Park. The Bulldogs on the other hands have been atrocious and are going through off-field turmoil as well. The Titans are deservedly strong favourites. And with Foran back – we think David Fifita could have a huge game to finish off the 2023 season.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Sharks v Raiders
Sun 3/9, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Emre Guler FTS & LTS @ $71-81 on Sportsbet
Joseph Tapine & Zac Woolford FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble
Toby Rudolf FTS @ $65 on Topsport
Tom Starling FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet
Elliott Whitehead & Jamal Fogarty 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $15 on Neds
Jarrod Croker FTS2H & LTS @ $31-34 on Sportsbet
Matt Frawley FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365**
Elliott Whitehead FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Sun 3/9 – Emre Guler is now $91 for FTS on Sportsbet! We like him at anything above $67. He’s also $81 for LTS still on Sportsbet. Tapine is still $67 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet. Woolford is $67-71 for FTS on Sportsbet, Bet365 & Bet Right. Rudolf’s now down to $51 for FTS which we think is closer to fair price – if he does pop up at $61 or higher later it’s a great price. We still think it’s fine to get on at $51 considering Canberra are missing Papalii and Horsburgh from their pack! Tom Starling is $61 for FTS2H on Sportsbet still – we love this price. They go to him when they get desperate for point and given there’s a home final on the line, hopefully he scoots over early in the 2nd half.
We’ve added Whitehead & Frawley at $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 – we love the prices here.
Whitehead & Fogarty are both $15 on Neds for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try. The Raiders’ right edge looked good – Whitehead played a part in two tries last week and Fogarty does love backing up for a try. Jarrod Croker is $41 to score the 1st try in the 2nd half and $34 to score the last try. We love the price here. There’s a chance he could end up starting, so this is clear value. Even if he’s on the bench, we can see Ricky Stuart giving him more than just the 3 minutes he gave him last week.
Wicky Preview Wed 30/8 – If the Roosters and Cowboys both lose, then the Raiders spot in the 8 is locked up. They are missing Josh Papali’i and Corey Horsburgh + their left edge defence looked atrocious with Wighton and Kris at left centre and wing respectively last week. If this remains the same (it’s named that way) – then the Sharks right edge with Hynes back (Nikora, Ramien, Sione Katoa) would be great for try scorer markets. The Raiders will likely be playing for their season and the Sharks will likely need a win to lock in a home final. Interestingly – if the Raiders win, these two sides could play each other again in week one of the finals!
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Broncos v Storm
Thu 31/8, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tom Flegler FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365 (Flegler scored the 1st try at $67!)
Josh King FTS @ $81 on Bet365**
Brendan Piakura 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $9.50 on Neds**
Wicky Preview Wed 30/8 – The most important thing to know for this game is that both teams have rested 7-8 of their regular starting side. The Broncos need to win the game to claim the Minor Premiership, whereas the Storm have nothing to play for in terms of ladder position as they’ll be 3rd or 4th and be travelling interstate next week regardless.
Game Day Update Thu 31/8 – Josh King & Brendan Piakura are still the prices above. Flegler is $56 for FTS on Topsport and widely available at $51 or higher for FTS. We think this is OK but the pick at $67 was mainly due to the price. Piakura has been really impressive on an edge for the Broncos over the last few weeks. Against a significantly understrength Storm outfit – we love the $26 for FTS & LTS for him. Josh King paid off at $151 when he scored the first try for us earlier this season. His price is $81 today but we still think that’s a good price as both teams are missing a few players and he’ll likely play a big first stint while the Storm are still putting max effort into this game.
Manly v Wests Tigers
Fri 1/9, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jake Trbojevic ATS @ $11 on Betr & Sportsbet + FTS & LTS @ $67-71 on Sportsbet (This won – Jake scored a try in his 200th!)
Shawn Blore FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Fonua Pole FTS2H @ $67 on Sportsbet**
Alex Seyfarth FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Gameday Update – Jake Trbojevic is $51 for FTS on Pointsbet and $67 for LTS on Dabble. Blore is now $41 for FTS & LTS on Bet Right. We still like these picks even though the prices are noticeably lower. Fonua Pole & Alex Seyfarth are good value at $61 & $81 respectively on Sportsbet.
Wicky Preview Wed 30/8 – Both teams have no chance of making the finals so hopefully this is an entertaining, high scoring affair. Manly are strong favourites but we called out that their left edge hasn’t played much footy together and even the struggling Bulldogs had some success there last week!
Rabbitohs v Roosters
Fri 1/9, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Sam Walker FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365** (This won – Walker scored the last try @ $34)
Isaiah Tass FTS @ $23 on Neds + 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $8.75 on Neds**
Nat Butcher FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365**
Cody Walker FTS & LTS @ $21 on TAB**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Fri 1/8 – Cody Walker is now $19 for FTS on Betr which we still think is fine and $17 for LTS which is probably too short now. Nat Butcher is still $29 for FTS & LTS on 365 which we still like. Tass is now $21 and $8.50 for FTS & 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer but with Manu and Tupou ruled out, Souths are more likely to win so we still love this price. Our model has him priced at $16.60 for FTS! We’ve also added Sam Walker at $34 for FTS & LTS on 365 as a pick. He’s not a standout pick on the OCT but he scored last week and we think he’ll get more touched on the ball as his confidence grows and he’s already a proven try scorer in the NRL.
Wicky Preview Wed 30/8 – This is a blockbuster clash between two traditional rivals – the winner likely gets a spot in the finals! Everything is on the line here but unfortunately both teams are missing a couple of key stars. Latrell Mitchell & Jared Waerea-Hargreaves are definitely missing and Joey Manu is likely to miss after suffering a minor hamstring strain last week.
Dolphins v Warriors
Sat 2/9, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Marata Niukore FTS @ $34 + 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $12.5 on Neds
Felise Kaufusi FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365**
Bunty Afoa FTS & LTS @ $67-71 on Dabble/Topsport
Jamayne Isaako FTS @ $9 on Betr**
Tom Ale LTS @ $101 on Bet365**
Jesse Bromwich FTS @ $67 on Dabble**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Sat 2/9 – We’ve added Isaako at $9 for FTS on Betr. Way better priced than our model and he’s been great for the Dolphins all year. We love him up against an understrength Warriors outfit at this price. Tom Ale is likely to be on the field later in the game if the Warriors look to rest some of their regular starters so we love the $101 on offer for LTS. We’ve also added Jesse Bromwich at $67 for FTS on Dabble – the Dolphins are favourites now with the Warriors missing a few players so we like this price for the Dolphins experienced pro to crash over early!
Felise Kaufusi is now $41 on Bet Right for FTS if you missed the price earlier in the week. Our model and his career strike rate would have him around $30. Our model and most bookies have Niukore around $22-30, so we love the $34 on Neds for FTS & $13 on Neds for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try. Bunty Afoa is still $67 for FTS on Dabble. He’s a strong ball runner and he hasn’t been getting many minutes recently – he’ll want to put on a show to lock in a finals spot!
Wicky Preview Wed 30/8 – The Warriors have 7 first graders rested or injured for this game. The Dolphins are playing at home and should be able to beat the Warriors given it’s the last game of their season and their team looks OK with the Hammer back at fullback and an experienced forward pack. The Warriors will be playing Brisbane or Penrith away next week regardless so there’s a chance they rest a few of their stars in the last quarter or so of the game also.
Panthers v Cowboys
Sat 2/9, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
We had Griffin Neame score the first try in the 2nd half @ $61! It was in the game day update but not up here!
Chad Townsend 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $19 on Neds + LTS @ $51 on 365, Dabble & Pointsbet
Jason Taumalolo FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble & 365
Peta Hiku FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Reece Robson FTS @ $51 on Betr. LTS @ $51 on Bet365**
Heilum Luki FTS @ $41 on Bet365 & ATS @ $6 on 365
Kulikefu Finefeuiaki LTS @ $34 (widely available) Updated – LTS @ $41 on Pointsbet
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Sat 2/9 – Chad Townsend is still $19 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer on Neds & $51 for LTS on Pointsbet & 365. Taumalolo is still $67 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 & Dabble. Peta Hiku is still $41 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Reece Robson is still $51 for FTS on Bet365 & Dabble. We’ve added Robson LTS @ $51 on Bet365 also as a pick also. Luki is still $41 for FTS & $6 for ATS on 365 + Finefuiaki is now $41 for LTS on Pointsbet which we love!
We’ve added Griffin Neame at $61 on Sportsbet for FTS2H as a pick – he’s done it once every 22 NRL games and we’re hoping the Panthers either rest a couple of players in the 2nd half or the Cowboys fighting for their season is enough to boost their chances of scoring first in the 2nd half!
Wicky Preview Wed 30/8 – This has been one of the most discussed games all season on our Discord server! IF the Broncos can beat the Storm on Thursday then the Panthers have nothing to play for against the Cowboys. IF this happens and they rest a few players – the Cowboys have a significantly chance of winning and making the 8. IF they win it makes the Raiders v Sharks a do-or-die game for the Raiders! A lot of IFs here but it promises to be an entertaining game with the Cowboys season on the line. Jarome Luai and Jeremiah Nanai are the key outs for this game. The Panthers could have Tago, Sorenson, Edwards & Turuva all back from the side which lost last week against the Eels.
Dragons v Knights
Sat 2/9, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jacob Saifiti FTS & LTS @ $67 on 365 & Dabble (Jacob scored the 1st try @ $67!)
Greg Marzhew ATS @ $1.84 on Topsport** (Marzhew scored a try)
Mikaele Ravalawa ATS @ $1.87 on Bet365** (Ravalawa scored a try)
Daniel Saifiti FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet
Faamanu Brown 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $15 on Neds
Matt Croker LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Moses Suli 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $9.50 on Neds**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Sat 2/9 – We’ve added Moses Suli to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try at $9.50 on Neds. The Knights are missing a few stars and we like the price for Suli to barge over early in the game. Marzhew is $1.85 at best on Betr and Ravalawa $1.80 on 365 – we still really like both of these picks. Jacob Saifiti is $67 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. His brother Daniel who’s named on the bench is $61 on Sportsbet for FTS 2nd half which we still love. Faamanu Brown is still $14 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer – we love this, he loves hunting for the try line. He scored 6 tries in just over 8 games worth of game time in 2022! Matt Croker is still $81 for LTS – there’s a rookie 2nd rower and the experienced middles are likely to be rested late. We think there’s a high chance he’s on at the end of the game and ideally on in the 2nd row!
Wicky Preview Wed 30/8 – The Knights are assured of a home elimination final and the Dragons season is over. The Knights are missing Kalyn Ponga and three of their other starts whilst the Dragons get Jack de Belin back. This game should be an interesting one – the Knights are clearly the better team but playing away from home with nothing on the line, it should mean the Dragons have a good chance to end their season on a high.
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
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