Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 20 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round. Our content, data tools & Discord can be found here for free.
We’ve also recently launched Wicky Premium. Our free users will still have our Discord (3k users), content & data tools. But for early access, pre-game prompts for team changes & the full OCT (11 bookies, 4 try scorer markets) – come check out Wicky Premium.
Cleary OUT – going harder on our try scorer value picks who happen to be Dolphins players👀 https://t.co/wcqzXxqa4X#NRL #sportsbet #rugbyleague https://t.co/VoAHfyqTyN pic.twitter.com/gLVYHrWRz6
— Wicky (@wickyai) July 16, 2023
Warriors v Sharks
Sun 16/7, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Luke Metcalf FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Shaun Johnson* FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Freddy Lussick FTS2H @ $51 on Neds/Lads
Cam McInnes* FTS @ $67 on Sportsbet (LTS @ $67 on 365)
Blayke Brailey* FTS @ $51 on Bet Right
Thomas Hazleton* FTS2H @ $51 on Bet Right
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sun 16/7 – The prices for the Metcalf, Johnson and Lussick plays are still the same. We’ve just added Brailey and Hazleton. McInnes is now $67 for FTS on Bet365 and Neds. He’s also $67 for LTS on Bet365.
Shaun Johnson has played his 200th game and had a baby and is now playing a huge game at home. He’s priced at $21 or less on most bookies to score the last try, we love the $29 on offer on 365 for first or last try scorer (2 separate plays now) market. Luke Metcalf has settled nicely into the halves at the Warriors – he scored two tries last week and we love the $29 for him to score the first or last try (2 separate plays).
Brailey & Lussick are priced significantly better on the sites quoted above than they are on most other bookies for FTS & FTS2H respectively. We love the $51s for both of them.
Cam McInnes has looked really good for the Sharks in recent weeks. With the Sharks missing a couple of middle forwards, he’ll want to step up as a leader and anywhere you see $67 or higher for him (fts, 2nd ts, lts etc) is a great value play. Tom Hazleton was someone who we called out a couple of months ago due to his running style and he kept making half breaks. He’s since scored a couple of tries and looks really, really good. He’s a great pick at $51 or higher for FTS 2nd half as he plays off the bench. Our Premium members got him at $61 on Bet Right over the weekend but we think the $51 is still good value!
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Dolphins v Panthers
Sun 16/7, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jamayne Isaako FTS @ $12 on Betr
Valyne Te Whare* FTS @ $17 on Betr
Kodi Nikorima* FTS @ $29 on Betr
James Fisher-Harris* FTS @ $71 on Bet Right
Spencer Leniu* FTS2H @ $46 on Sportsbet
Jarrod Wallace FTS2H @ $61 on Bet Right & Sportsbet
Herman Ese’ese FTS2H @ $91 on Bet Right
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sun 16/7 – The only picks which have changed in price are Isaako (improved to $15 on Betr) & Ese’ese (now $67 at best on TAB).
Isaako, Te Whare and Nikorima are great value according to our model and noticeably higher priced than other bookies on Betr – clear value picks.
Fisher-Harris is a great price on Bet Right – the Panthers have rested their 4 Origin players but likely roll out with Cleary and Luai in the halves and Kenny and Edwards are still there. So their spine’s intact and most of their pack is still Rep quality. Spencer Leniu has scored the first try in the 2nd half one in every 18 games he’s played. The $46 on Sportsbet is a good price.
We nailed Jarrod Wallace FTS 2nd half at $51 ($67 for our Premium members!) last weekend – we love him around the same price again this week. Herman Ese’ese has scored the first try in the 2nd half one in every 30 games he’s played. You can see why we still like the $67 available on TAB.
Eels v Titans
Sun 16/7, 6.15pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Sean Russell ATS @ $2.25 on Bet365, FTS & LTS @ $12 on Bet365*
David Fifita ATS @ $4 on Bet365, FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365*. Now $3.65 ats on Bet Right.
Clint Gutherson ATS @ $2.65 on Bet365
Shaun Lane ATS @ $4.40 on Neds & PlayUp
Kieran Foran FTS @ $51 on Bet365 & Neds
Klese Haas FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365. Now FTS @ $41 on Bet Right.
Tino Faasamalaeuai* FTS & LTS @$51 on Bet365 & Bet Right. (he’s benched – no more FTS plays!)
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sun 16/7 – David Fifita has been crunched in but he’s still $3.65 ats & $26 fts on Bet Right which we still really like. Most of the other picks are the same price (or slightly lower, but still great value). Haas is now FTS @ $41 on Bet Right.
Tino Faasamaleuai is a try scoring freak. If he’s starting – we love $51 for him for FTS & LTS on Bet365 & Bet Right. Gutherson, Russell, Lane & Fifita are amazing value in the picks listed above. It’s very rare that we get prices much higher than our model and most other bookies for outside backs but that’s what we have with Gutho and Russell today. Lane and Fifita are also great value – both noted try scorers, especially Fifita who’s been on a freakish run of form.
Haas has already scored a try in his NRL career and looks like a good ball runner. If the Titans can compete with all four of their Origin players likely to start, we think Haas is a great shout for $41 to score first on Bet Right.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Knights v Wests Tigers
Fri 14/7, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tyson Gamble Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $6 on Neds (This won!)
Lachlan Fitzgibbon ATS @ $3.90 on Bet Right
Jackson Hastings FTS @ $41 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Fonua Pole 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $26 on TAB & Team LTS @ $34 on TAB. 2nd TS & LTS @ $67 on TAB.
Update Thu 13/7 – Pole is still $26 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts on TAB which we really like. He’s now $26 for Team FTS & LTS on TAB which is OK at best. Gamble is $6 ats on Neds/Lads still which we really like. Fitzgibbon is now $3.80 ATS on Sportsbet which we really like. Hastings is still $41 for FTS on Neds/Lads.
Lachlan Fitzgibbon is the back rower on Kalyn Ponga’s favoured left edge. He was on fire in their drubbing of the Dogs. He’s now $3.50 at best on Dabble and Bet365 which is OK value but we love the pick.
Tyson Gamble & Jackson Hastings are $6.20 anytime & $41 to score first on Neds/Ladbrokes. Both picks are in the green for ‘model value’ and also noticeably higher priced than other bookies. Hastings has scored 3 tries in his last two games. Gamble generally looks like a better ball runner. We love both picks against the Tigers today.
Fonua Pole is still $26 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on TAB which we love. His team fts/lts odds have been crunched in and are no longer value. He’s $67 for 2nd & LTS on TAB which we also like.
Bulldogs v Broncos
Sat 15/7, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Toby Sexton FTS @ $41 on Bet Right + 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $13 on Sportsbet. LTS @ $41 on Sportsbet*
Billy Walters FTS @ $51 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Adam Reynolds FTS/LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Max King Team FTS @ $41 & Team LTS @ $46 on Sportsbet
Kurtis Morrin FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $67 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Reed Mahoney FTS2H @ $51 on TAB
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sat 15/7 – Morrin, Walters, King & Reynolds are the same prices as above. Mahoney has been crunched in and is no longer value. Sexton is the same price for 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts on Sportsbet and is now $41 on Betr for FTS. Sexton’s also $41 for LTS on Sportsbet.
Toby Sexton looked good in his first game for the Bulldogs last weekend & our model loves the odds for him to score first against a weakened Broncos outfit. His career strike rate and our model would have him priced around $25-28. Most bookies have him around $26-34. You can see why we love the $41 for him to score first on Betr. He’s also that price to score last on Sportsbet.
Our model has Billy Walters priced at $36 to score the first try and most bookies have him around this mark or $41 at most. So the $51 is a clear value pick. Adam Reynolds is priced at $25 by our model to score first – we love the $34 on Bet365 & Pointsbet to score first or last (two separate plays).
The Bulldogs have been poor this year but with the Broncos missing Haas, Carrigan, Walsh, Flegler, Riki & Oates – we think this game will be competitive. We like the price for Max King (Team FTS & LTS at $41-46) & Morrin to score the first try in the 2nd half at $67. Morrin’s a much more likely try scorer – he scored the last try a couple of weeks ago. With the Broncos pack significantly understrength, we love these plays.
Manly v Cowboys
Sat 15/7, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Coen Hess FTS @ $67 on Neds/Lads
Griffin Neame FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet
Tom Dearden FTS & LTS @ $21 on Bet365*
Kulikefu Finefeuiaki LTS @ $34 on Bet365*
Jake Granville FTS2H @ $81 on Neds/Lads (He’s starting – $67 or higher for FTS is good value)
Toa Sipley FTS @ $71 on Topsport. 2nd TS & LTS @ $67 on TAB** (He’s benched – FTS2H @ $61 or higher is good value)
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sat 15/7 – Neame, Granville and Hess are still the same price. Sipley is now $67 on Neds for FTS. We’ve added Dearden & Finefeuiaki plays above.
Tom Dearden has a freakish strike rate at scoring the first and last tries in games. He’s paying $21 on Bet365 for both of those markets and with the Cowboys playing all their Origin stars, we love this price. Finefuiaki is an edge backrower who should get 20-30 minutes on an edge at the end of the game if the Cows rest Nanai or move Leilua to the middle. $34 is an incredible price for him to score the last try given he’s a beast of a ball runner!
We love the Cowboys forwards at juicy prices in this contest. Griffin Neame has scored the first try in the 2nd half one in every 19 NRL games he’s played. He’s paying $61 to do it today against Manly. Granville is paying $81 for fts 2nd half – there’s a chance he plays hooker for Robson who played Origin on Wednesday or he could even fill in in the backs if there’s an injury – we love the price here. He’s $34 or less on most other bookies, incredible value. Coen Hess has been impressive this season as a middle forward and we like the $67 for him to score first – no site has him above $56.
We had Sipley as a value play for our Premium members on Tuesday as he’s looked desperate for a try and we love his running style. His price is now crunched in but he’s still at $67 to score first on Neds.
Roosters v Storm
Sat 15/7, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Brandon Smith* ATS @ $7.25 on Neds
Nelson Asofa-Solomona ATS @ $4.25 on Bet365 & PlayUp. FTS & LTS @ $26 on 365.**
Tui Kamikamica 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $18 on Sportsbet & FTS + LTS @ $51 on TAB
Tariq Sims FTS2H @ $71 on Bet Right & Sportsbet
Cam Munster ATS @ $3.75 on Bet365
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sat 15/7 – Asofa-Solomona (NAS) is now $4.40 on Neds to score anytime – great value. His FTS & LTS price is still $26 on 365 – also good value. Kamikamica’s price for 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts is $17 now on Sportsbet and we’d rather just take the $51 on Unibet and and Betr for FTS, the $51 for LTS on Sportsbet, TAB and Unibet & 2nd ts on TAB at $51. Sims is still $71 on Sportsbet for FTS 2nd Half. We’ve also added Brandon Smith at $7.25 to score anytime on Neds against his old side.
Brandon Smith hasn’t played an NRL game for a few weeks and hasn’t been in the best form at his new club in 2023. However, his career strike rate converted to odds would be $5.36 to score anytime and he is playing against his old side in a home game for the Roosters. The $7.25 for him to score anytime is more than 10% better than the next best bookie, so we’re happy to call this a value pick!
Nelson Asofa-Solomona (NAS) is a much clear value pick. The $4.40 on Neds for him to score anytime is considerably better than $3.47 our model has him priced at and most bookies have him under $4. He’s played in the 2nd row the last two games (against Manly and the Panthers) got 6 tackle breaks and a try in EACH game as well as 230 running metres total. He’s a beast and running at Luke Keary, we love the price and the matchup. Our model and most bookies have him priced at $21 or less to score the first try. You can see why we love the $26 for him to score first or last (2 separate bets).
Tariq Sims is purely a play on the number – we like $71 for him to score the first try in the 2nd half with the Roosters potentially having to play Whyte and Wong off the bench together after half-time. Kamikamica, however, is a clearer value pick. His career strike rate at scoring the first try would have him priced closer to $40 – and most bookies have him at that price also. Betr & Unibet have him at $51 for FTS still, Sportsbet, Tab & Unibet have him for $51 for LTS and TAB have him at $51 for 2nd try scorer. He scored the first try of the game only a few rounds ago and we love this matchup with Harry Grant noted for putting middle forwards over for tries.
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
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