Punter’s Preview NRL Round 19 2023

Punter’s Preview NRL Round 19 2023

Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 19 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round. Our content, data tools & Discord can be found here for free. 

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Titans v Dolphins

Sun 9/7, 4.05pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Kenny Bromwich FTS & FTS2H @ $51 on Neds & PlayUp

Jarrod Wallace & Mark Nicholls FTS2H @ $51 (Wallace is a great play here, Nicholls is starting so not worth getting on this market for him) This won – Wallace scored the first try in the 2nd half!

Jamayne Isaako FTS @ $12 on Betr – clear value according to our model + higher price than other bookies.

Kieran Foran FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365, Neds & PlayUp

Joe Stimson FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365

Klese Haas FTS2H @ $29 on Sportsbet. FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365.

Connelly Lemuelu FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365 This won – Lemuelu scored the first try at $34!

Check out Betright's odds for Round 19 of the NRL
Check out Betright’s odds for Round 19 of the NRL

Update 9/7 – Kenny Bromwich is still $51 for FTS & FTS 2nd half on Neds/Ladbrokes. Foran and Stimson are now $34 at best on most bookies which we think is OK value only. Klese Haas is $26 at best across FTS, LTS, FTS2H which again we think is OK value only. Connoly Lemuelu is the same – $26 at best now. Wallace is currently $61-67 on Sportsbet for FTS2H – clearly the best in the market. Nicholls is $51 on Pointsbet.

The Kenny Bromwich pick is purely based on the number. Playing in the 2nd row, that’s a great price for him on Neds/Lads for FTS or FTS2H. Our model and most bookies have him at $36 or less.

Jarrod Wallace and Mark Nicholls have both looked great this season in terms of try scoring. The Titans’ bench has Erin Clark as the only recognised middle forward with Randall, a back and a rookie.

Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!

Wests Tigers v Sharks

Thu 6/7, 7.50pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Cameron McInnes First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $51 on Neds & PlayUp

Stefano Utoikamanu First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $81 on BetRight, Bet365 & Betr. LTS @ $81 on Bet365. ATS @ $13 on Betr.

Jahream Bula First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $29 & Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $4.60 on Betr

Jake Simpkin FTS @ $67 on Bet365, Neds & PlayUp. 1st or 2nd ts @ $41 & 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $29 on Neds

David Klemmer 1st or 2nd try scorer @ $67 on Neds

Shawn Blore FTS2H @ $67 on Neds/Ladbrokes

Betright's Odds for NRL Round 19 as of 3pm on Wed 5th July
Betright’s Odds for NRL Round 19 as of 3pm on Wed 5th July

Update Thu 6/7 – Jake Simpkin is still $67 to score first on Bet365. Cameron McInnes is still $51 to score first on Neds/PlayUp. Stefano Utoikamanu is great value for FTS, 2nd TS & LTS @ $67 or above. These prices should be available on Sportsbet, Bet365 & BetRight. Jahream Bula is $29 for FTS & $4.75 for ATS on Betr. We’ve also added two extra markets for Jake Simpkin + Blore FTS2H @ $67.

The Sharks are 24 point favourites in this one so unsurprisingly – Cam McInnes at $51 to score the first try is probably going to be everyone’s favourite play here. Our model has him priced at $39, most other bookies have him priced at $34 or less and he scored only a couple of weeks ago. The Tigers are also missing Koroisau from their pack and Twal and Brooks also. This is a great play.

Our favourite play, however, is Stefano Utoikamanu. He has close to the best strike rate at scoring tries for any middle forward in the NRL. Yes the Tigers are strong outsiders – but a price around $81 for 1st, 2nd or Last Try scorer is great considering he’s scored the first try or the last try one in every (roughly) 20 games!

The other value picks are all for the Tigers. Bula’s been a freak this year – $29 for someone who’s going to be at the heart of the Tigers’ attack is a good price for FTS. The Sharks might take their foot off the pedal later in the game also, so we don’t mind the $4.75 for ATS. Both on Betr.

Jake Simpkin loves a scoot out of dummy half – the $67 for FTS (365) or $41 for 1st or 2nd try (Neds/Lads) is a great price if the Tigers can compete early in the game! Klemmer is purely a play on the number. The Sharks pack is missing Uele, Finucane and has Rudolf coming back from a long term injury. If they’re close to the line – we love the price here.67*2 = $134. Much better than the $81-101 he is for FTS elsewhere!

Shawn Blore has been playing on an edge in recent weeks. Even though he’s on the bench, we think he comes on to an edge and the $67 for him to score the first try in the 2nd half is therefore a great price.

Dragons v Raiders

Fri 7/7, 8pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Michael Molo FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $81 on BetRight

Ben Murdoch-Masila FTS @ $51 on Neds & PlayUp

Jayden Sullivan ATS @ $6.40 on Neds

Moses Suli FTS @ $29 on Neds & PlayUp

Jacob Liddle 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $15 on TAB

Jack de Belin 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $26 on TAB

Get the best out of Wicky's previews, data tools & Discord community
Get the best out of Wicky’s previews, data tools & Discord community

Update Fri 7/7 – Sullivan is now $5.80 on Neds. The line has gone in the Raiders’ favour and Neds have fixed their price so we don’t love the value on this pick anymore. Suli is now $29 FTS on Topsport. Michael Molo is now $67 for FTS2H on Sportsbet & Betr which we still think is decent. Liddle is now $13 and de Belin $21 for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd TS market on TAB which aren’t value anymore. Murdoch-Masila is $41 or less for FTS on most bookies now which we think is OK at best.

Update 7/7 – There’s not much value left in this game aside from Murdoch-Masila at $51 for first try scorer and fts 2nd half on Neds/Ladbrokes. And our same game multi of Timoko, Croker and Young at $26 on Bet365 (almost double the odds on other bookies)! Michael Molo at $67 FTS2H is still a decent value play on Sportsbet & Betr.

Eels v Warriors

Sat 8/7, 5.30pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Mitch Barnett FTS @ $29 on Bet365, Neds & PlayUp & ATS @ $5.20 on Neds (Barnett ATS won)

Shaun Lane FTS2H @ $34 & ATS @ $7.75 on Neds (Lane ATS won)

Shaun Johnson LTS @ $26 on Bet365

Will Penisini ATS @ $3.50 on Neds & PlayUp

Okahifi Ogden FTS @ $71 on BetRight

Update 8/7 – Barnett is still FTS @ $29 on Bet365 & Neds. Shaun Johnson LTS @ $26 on Bet365 still. Lane is still $34 FTS2h on Neds and $34 LTS on Bet365. Ogden is still FTS @ $67 on Bluebet and Dabble. Penisini is still $3.50 ATS on Neds/Lads.

Barnett plays on Shaun Johnson’s right edge so we love the $29 for FTS and ATS. Shaun Johnson loves a late try and we like the $26 for LTS in his 200th! Ogden scored the first try a couple of weeks ago – we think the $67 is a decent price for him to do it again.
Lane is named on the bench but is an edge player so $34 is a great price for him if he comes on the field after a break on the edge.

Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!

Rabbitohs v Bulldogs

Sat 8/7, 7.35pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Siliva Havili FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365

Matt Burton FTS2H & LTS @ $34 on TAB

Toby Sexton 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $13 on TAB & ATS @ $7 on PlayUp

Braidon Burns 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $10 on TAB

Jacob Kiraz 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $6 on TAB & ATS @ $3.40 on PlayUp (Kiraz ATS won)

Jackson Topine FTS @ $34 on Betr

Davvy Moale FTS2H @ $51 @ most bookies

Note *** Ignore Topine now, he’s playing 2nd row.

Update 8/7 – There’s a chance Topine gets moved to the forwards or the bench for the Dogs so we’d stay away from him now. Havili is $51 for FTS & LTS on 365 – clearly better than other bookies. We love Burton at $29-34 for FTS,FTS2H & LTS on TAB. Sexton is still $34 for FTS/LTS etc on a few bookies and we really like the $13 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts.

Kiraz and Burns at the odds quoted above are a great price for outside backs in what should be a close game with the Rabbits missing 6 key starting team members due to injury or Origin. Moale’s a beast – up against the Dogs’ bench forwards, we like him at $51 or more.

If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.

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