Punter’s Preview State of Origin Game 3 2023

Punter’s Preview State of Origin Game 3 2023

Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for State of Origin Game 3 2023. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets for Origin, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for the $40,000 contest.

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Blues v Maroons

Wed 12/7, 8.05pm

With the series already decided, this should be an exciting game. The Blues have a few fresh faces and the Maroons will know they have to perform to keep their spots for next year in a stacked squad missing players like Walsh, Ponga, Flegler, Arrow etc. It’s easy to forget that the Maroons scored two tries in the final ten minutes when they were a man down to win Game 1. We the value is with QLD -3.5 at 1.90 on Bet Right if you are punting on the result!

State of Origin odds on Betright as of Wed 5th July, 3pm
State of Origin odds on Betright as of Wed 5th July, 3pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Anytime Try Scorers

Val Holmes Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $3.25 on Bet Right, Bet365 & Bluebet.

Jeremiah Nanai ATS @ $4 on Bet Right

David Fifita ATS @ $4 on Bet Right

Daly Cherry-Evans ATS @ $5.50 on Bet Right

Other Try Scorers

First Try Scorer – Val Holmes @ $17 on Bet Right + few other bookies

First Try Scorer 2nd Half – Jacob Saifiti @ $71 on Bet Right

Last Try Scorer – Mitch Moses @ $34 on Bet Right

** Exactly 1 hour before the game, we will post our final tips once we know which forwards are starting/benched. This will be on our free Discord – make sure you join!

State of Origin Odds Comparison Tool
State of Origin Odds Comparison Tool

Update Tues 11/7 – The prices are above are accurate as of 4pm on Tuesday. We’ll update the higher odds first, last & first 2nd half try scorer markets when teams are finalised an hour before kick-off due to the uncertainty around which forwards will be starting. These are sent out to ALL users for free on our Discord. Our odds comparison tool for Game 3 clearly shows Betright have the best odds for most players though – it’s one of the best parts of Betright’s offering. If you would like to make an account with them before Game 3, we do get an introductory fee so it would help us out if you do it through here!

Val Holmes will be running at Bradman Best. Best is a quality young player, but the Maroons have looked the better side for this year and we think Holmes’ class will come out on top over the Blues’ left edge that has Best and Walker who haven’t played a game so far this series. We love the $3.25 for him to score anytime and $17 for him to score first (he did this in game 2 also).

We love the $4 for Fifita and Nanai to score a try anytime. Nanai scored a try last week and Fifita has looked unstoppable over the last couple of months in the NRL. Their career strike rate would have them priced at $2.80 and $2.18 respectively. Yes it’s Origin and it’s meant to be a closer, lower scoring affair. But these guys are lethal and the $4 is a ridiculously good price for them.

Full reasoning for the plays will be added on game day, however, Holmes has the matchup against Bradman Best. Tino’s odds are great compared to his career strike. And we think Nanai and Fifita will be great running at two inexperienced edges for the Blues and are priced noticeably better than their lethal career strike rate!

If you want early and exclusive access to our FULL odds comparison tool, value picks & private Discord channel – check out Wicky Premium. Depending on how you staked your bets – you’d be sitting at 8-24% ROI based off our bets tracker from Rounds 1-13 this NRL season.

Wicky Premium offering
Wicky Premium offering

Draftstars – $40,000 contest

Draftstars Stats bible for the $40,000 Origin Game 3 Contest
Draftstars Stats bible for the $40,000 Origin Game 3 Contest

We’ll do a detailed breakdown for the $40,000 Draftstars contest on Wednesday morning. The stats bible above is a great place to start building teams. If you want to make an account with Draftstars/PlayUp – you can here.

Our read on this game is that Queensland is the better side and the Blues will need to do more defending. Based on this and our Stats Bible’s value picks, we think it’s best to go with backs or edge forwards from QLD and middle forwards from the Blues.

Example of a Draftstars entry for the $40,000 State of Origin contest
Example of a Draftstars entry for the $40,000 State of Origin contest

What we like about the side above is that it has Murray and Yeo – two of the Blues’ most recognised middle forwards who are likely to play big minutes and get a lot of base stats. It also has the upside of Tino and Nanai who are capable of scoring tries. And the backs – Munster, Brimson and Holmes are likely to wrack up the attacking stats if the Maroons do win 13+ again in this one. If you have any questions about how Draftstars works – watch our Origin preview podcast where we discuss it or join our Discord where we’ve got a dedicated channel for Draftstars!

Player of the Match markets

Brian To’o @ $81 on Pointsbet. We’ve had two unlikely Player of the Match winners in this Series so far – both paying above $50. If the Blues get a shock win, we think the price of $81 is overs on To’o who’s a lock to get 200 run metres and could jag a try or two in a Blues win!

Tino Fa’asamaleuai @ $41. This price is available on a few bookies. He’s looked great for Queensland in the first two games. If he can jag a try in another impressive win, we think he’s got a great shot and the $41 price is overs for someone who can make an impact but also wracks up big numbers.

Update – Tino is still $41 for POTM on TAB, Betr, Bluebet and Dabble. To’o is $76 for POTM on Sportsbet and Neds which we still like.

Player Performance Markets

Keaon Koloamatangi PP Under 43.5 on Sportsbet @ $1.88. He averages around 30 tackles and 135 run metres in 2023 – so his average base stats in 80 minutes would get him over this line. He’s making his Origin debut so we can’t see him playing 80 minutes and we also think Queensland will win the game convincingly so think it’s unlikely he gets any attacking stats.

If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.

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