Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Week 2 of the 2023 NRL Finals. We had our BEST round of the season in Round 27, nailing more than 6 plays between $34-67!
Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.
Warriors v Knights
Sat 16/9, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Greg Marzhew ATS @ $2.25 on Bet365
Dane Gagai ATS @ $4.75 on Neds
Tyson Frizell ATS @ $7.75 + 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $17 on Neds + LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Dom Young ATS @ $2.15 on Neds
Marata Niukore 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $12 + FTS @ $34 on Neds
Tyson Gamble FTS @ $41 on Neds
Adam Elliott FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365 & Dabble
Matt Croker FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet
Tyson Gamble 2+ tries @ $67 on Neds
Tyson Frizell 2+ tries @ $101 on Neds
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 2+ tries @ $4.75 on TAB
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update Sat 16/9 – Shaun Johnson is in. The final teams update will confirm this but he’s made the 24 hour update so while he may not be 100% he will most likely take the field. The Knights are missing Lachlan Fitzgibbon, Jackson Hastings & Daniel Saifiti.
Marzhew is $2.25 at best on 365, Gagai $5 on Neds, Frizell $6.60 on Neds & Young $2.1 on Neds, 365 & TAB. Our model has Gagai and Marzhew priced at $3.45 and $1.64 so those plays are ridiculous value.
Frizell is still $41 for LTS on 365. Niukore $31 for FTS on Bet Right. Gamble is $34 at best on Neds for FTS. Adam Elliott is still $67 for FTS & LTS on 365. Matt Croker is $51 at best for FTS2H on Sportsbet, TAB & Pointsbet. We still like all these prices – especially Adam Elliott.
For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market – Frizell is now $14, Niukore $10 both on Neds. They’re still good value but as always, it’s best to get on these markets on Tuesday-Wednesday.
For the 2+ tries market – Gamble is $51 on Bet Right, Neds & Sportsbet & Frizell is still $67 on Neds. Both plays are still worth taking a small punt on but most of the value is gone as they were $67 and 101 respectively.
Wicky Preview Fri 15/9 – Shaun Johnson will look to take part in Captain’s Run today and we’ll almost definitely know in the 24 hour update whether he’ll be playing or not. Our try scorer plays above are predominantly Knights players – there’s some great value there, make sure you get on now. Just like Hughes, the only way these prices could change dramatically is if Johnson is ruled out and the bookies reduce the prices on our Knights picks. Even if SJ is playing, we do think these prices are atleast 10-20% higher than they should be.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Storm v Roosters
Fri 15/9, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
James Tedesco ATS @ $3.50 on Unibet**
Brandon Smith FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Lindsay Collins FTS @ $81 & LTS @ $67 on Sportsbet
Terell May FTS2H @ $71 on Sportsbet
Sam Walker & Luke Keary FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Nat Butcher FTS & LTS @ $41 on Unibet
Sandon Smith LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Angus Crichton LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Victor Radley 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $19 on Neds
Brandon Smith & Luke Keary 2+ tries @ $81 on Neds
Justin Olam ATS @ $3.50 on TAB
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky Preview Fri 15/9 – Jahrome Hughes has officially been ruled out. Tyran Wishart has been named on the bench but this may change in the final update an hour before the game. This does suit our try scorer plays above perfectly as they’re predominantly Roosters players! This game will be really interesting – even with Hughes out, the Melbourne return to AAMI Park after a horrible showing against the Broncos at Suncorp last week where they couldn’t even score one try. The Roosters are missing JWH, Tupou, Manu, Suaalii & Billy Smith. If they can back up their heroic one point win against the Sharks last week and upset the Storm it’ll be a minor miracle!
Game Day Update Fri 15/9 – Most of the try scorer prices above are noticeably different as the picks were locked in on Wednesday before the Hughes news came out. We always recommend getting on try scorer picks on Tuesdays for our Premium members and Wednesdays as soon as the article comes out for everyone else. We did get lucky with the Storm missing a key player, but a lot of these picks we liked as they were say $41 when we thought they should be closer to $34 etc.
We’ve added James Tedesco at $3.50 to score anytime on Unibet. The key reason to this is they haven’t adjusted to the Hughes news. Teddy’s career strike rate would have him priced at $2.34. Our model has him priced at $2.78 and remember this has the pre-game line and total baked in. Most bookies have him either side of $3. We are writing this at 6am Sydney time on game day – but if you see the $3.50 on Unibet, it’s around 15-20% higher than it should be!
Lindsay Collins is $67 for FTS & LTS on TAB & Dabble. We love this price for him – he’s shown the ability to hit a hole this season and he’s also become a leader this season at the Roosters after impressing during the Origin series as well. This price likely won’t make it to kick-off so we’d suggest getting on the $67 for FTS & LTS early in the day.
Angus Crichton is $36 & Sandon Smith $51 for LTS on Unibet – we still like both of these prices. Nat Butcher, Keary & Sam Walker are all around $35 for FTS & LTS – we still like these prices on Unibet & Bet365. Olam is now $3.30 on Betr – it’s still a decent price. Brandon Smith is $67 & Keary $51 on Neds, SB & Bet Right to score 2+ tries – still good prices and more likely now that Hughes is out. Terell May is now into $51 for FTS2H on Sportsbet & a few other bookies – we do like him at $61 or above but $51 is OK for a small stake. He was at $71-81 earlier in the week which we loved considering his recent form and running style.
One of our other favourite picks is Brandon Smith at $51 for FTS & LTS. 365 haven’t changed the price after the Hughes news. We loved this price even when the Chooks were around 10-11 point underdogs. He’s been in better form, coming up against his old side in a final. Hasn’t scored for exactly 5 months and with his personality – you know he’ll be keen to have a big one! We now LOVE the $51 for FTS & LTS on 365 for Brandon Smith. His price would be $25 if you went by how often he’s scored FTS so far in his career and he’s priced between $26-41 on most bookies.
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
18+ Gamble Responsibly