Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Week 3 of the 2023 NRL Finals. We had our BEST round of the season in Round 27, nailing more than 6 plays between $34-67!
Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.
We’ve launched an OCT for NRLW + the NSW Cup GF. We’ll be expanding this for more games/markets soon. Check it out for free here!
Broncos v Warriors
Sat 23/9, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Selwyn Cobbo ATS @ $1.87 on Bet365**
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak FTS @ $12 on Betr**
Payne Haas FTS & LTS @ $51 on Sportsbet
Charne Nicoll-Klokstad FTS2H @ $29 on Sportsbet
Jackson Ford & Marata Niukore 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $15 on Neds
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky Preview Thu 21/9 – Both teams should be going into this one at full strength. The Broncos obviously had the week off but the Warriors had a relatively easy hit out against the Knights last week and do get a full week between games. The Broncos are strong favourites in this one but the Warriors forward pack does match up relatively well to the Broncos. The spines are relatively similar also. Where the disparity in class is clear though, is the outside backs. Staggs and Farnworth up against Pompey and Berry. Games aren’t played on paper though, so if Fonua-Blake and Tohu Harris can take it to the Broncos early, we might be screaming ‘Up the Wahs’ all the way into October!
We’ll add price updates on game day. But initial thoughts – the Cobbo and DWZ plays are clear value. Both right side wingers who have been in great try scoring form in 2023. Ford & Niukore – the two edge back rowers for the Warriors are both at great prices in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market on Neds. Clearly better prices than other bookies. Nicoll-Klokstad at $29 for FTS2H is a standout price and the Haas play at $51 is probably not a great price but we think he’s primed to dominate and take the Broncos to a GF so we’re happy to hop on at $51 for FTS & LTS.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Other Footy
We will be having a crack at the try scorer markets for the NRLW Prelim Finals, NSW Cup GF & the PM 13 v PNG game this weekend also. We’ll likely add a few of these plays on here but make sure you join our free Discord where we’ll DEFINITELY add these plays on game day!
We’ve launched an OCT for NRLW + the NSW Cup GF. We’ll be expanding this for more games/markets soon. Check it out for free here!
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Panthers v Storm
Fri 22/9, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Brian To’o ATS @ $1.91 on Bet365**
Eliesa Katoa 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $14 on Neds
Nelson Asofa-Solomona FTS2H <S @ $51 on Sportsbet
Spencer Leniu FTS2H @ $41 on Sportsbet & Pointsbet
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Final Update Fri 22/9 – Nelson Asofa-Solomona & Garlick start with Grant benched and Wishart dropped. The storm middle forwards are juicy prices especially on Sportsbet – we love Welch & Tariq Sims at $81 for FTS 2nd Half on Sportsbet. Asofa-Solomona is $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 & Unibet + Sorenson is $9.75 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer on Neds which we also love.
Wicky Preview Thu 21/9 – The Panthers have confirmed Luai and Tago will be playing. The only other key potential change is Jahrome Hughes could be ruled out due to the calf injury which forced him to miss last game. The Panthers are 12 point favourites in this one and honestly, it’s hard to see the Storm being able to beat them in Sydney – especially if Hughes is missing. We looked into the key attacking stats for the season and the only way the Storm can win this one is their attack. Munster, Hughes & Grant do match up well in terms of attacking output throughout the 2023 season against the Panthers spine.
We’ll add price updates on game day. But for now – we absolutely love Asofa-Solomona and Leniu at $51 & $41 respectively for FTS 2nd half. The Katoa play depends on whether Hughes is playing (they play on the right side – running at Luai). To’o is now $1.83 which we still like (our model has him at $1.59) and it could be even better value if Hughes is ruled out. We did also mention our value multi on Trypod’s weekly show – To’o and Cobbo to score a try at $3.42 (it’s $3.10 or less on most bookies)
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
18+ Gamble Responsibly