Punter’s Preview NRL Finals Week 1 2023

Punter’s Preview NRL Finals Week 1 2023

Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Week 1 of the 2023 NRL Finals. We just had our BEST round of the season nailing more than 6 plays between $34-67 in Round 27!

Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.

Knights v Raiders

Sun 10/9, 4.05pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Dane Gagai ATS @ $3.40 on Neds

Jackson Hastings ATS @ $6.50 on Neds + FTS @ $41 on Betr

Greg Marzhew ATS @ $1.66 on Topsport

Jamal Fogarty 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $17 on Neds

Elliott Whitehead 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $15 on Neds

Joe Tapine FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble

Zac Woolford FTS & LTS @ $76 & 67 on Sportsbet

Emre Guler FTS2H @ $101 on Sportsbet

Tom Starling FTS2H @ $67 on Sportsbet

Tyson Frizell FTS @ $29 on Bet Right**

Matt Frawley FTS @ $51 on Bet Right**

Adam Elliott LTS @ $51 on Bet Right**

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

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Game Day Update Sun 10/9 – Gagai & Hastings are our two favourite picks and are still the same price on Neds & SB/Betr respectively. Marzhew is also a similar price on Topsport, TAB, Betr (around $1.65) which we still love). Adam Elliott is now $51 to score last on Sportsbet. Frawley is $41 at best for FTS which we think is OK but Frizell is widely available at $26 for FTS which we still like. The prices for the Raiders forwards are largely the same if not better – we recommend having a smaller play on them at big odds.

Update Fri 8/9 – We’ve added Frizell, Frawley & Elliott on on Bet Right** as picks above. Frizell’s got a great matchup against the feeble Raiders left edge + they’re all 10% or higher priced compared to the next best bookie for these markets.

Wicky Preview Thu 7/9 – The Raiders are missing Papali’i & Horsburgh from their pack + Kris & Hopoate/Croker from their backline. Wighton and Frawley defending on the left edge together. The Knights are playing at home on a Sunday arvo with Ponga back. Unfortunately – everything says Knights 13+ here.

Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!

Dane Gagai is running at the Schiller, Wighton, Frawley edge – an amazing matchup for him. Our model has him priced at $2.54 and we’re getting $3.35 for him to score anytime on Neds. Clear value and he’s our standout pick of the round. Kalyn Ponga favours the Knights’ left edge and Bradman Best has been in excellent form – it makes Greg Marzhew a good pick + the $1.65 available on TAB, Betr & Unibet is clear value also with our model pricing him at $1.40.

Jackson Hastings returns from an ankle injury and is clear value at $6.50 on Sportsbet & Betr to score anytime. Our model has him priced at $5.32 and most bookies have him at $5.50 or less. For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try market – Whitehead & Fogarty are paying $16 and $17 respectively on the Raiders’ right edge. Although we think the Knights should win this one comfortably, we think the Raiders will put up a fight early and Whitehead did look strong on the Raiders’ right side last week.

Joseph Tapine is $67 for FTS on Dabble & Betr + $71 for LTS on Sportsbet. He won the Raiders Player of the Year again this season and with Big Papa & Horsburgh out – he’ll have to carry the Raiders on his back if they are to compete. Zac Woolford has never scored a try in the NRL – he’s $67 for LTS on Sportsbet & Dabble and $76 for FTS on Sportsbet. We just love the price for a dummy half, we wouldn’t take either of these guys at anything less than $60.

From the bench – Emre Guler & Tom Starling will need to provide a lot of impact to give the Raiders a shot. Guler is $101 and Starling $67 to score first in the 2nd half. We’d take Guler down to $81 and Starling till $60 – both are priced 30-50% higher than the next best bookie.

Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!

Broncos v Storm

Fri 8/9, 7.50pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Herbie Farnworth ATS @ $3.25 on PlayUp

Jahrome Hughes ATS @ $4.75 on PlayUp

Harry Grant FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365

Tui Kamikamica FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble

Kobe Hetherington FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet

Eliesa Katoa 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $11.5 on Neds

Payne Haas FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365**

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Game Day Update Fri 8/9 – We’ve added Payne Haas FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365 as a value play. He’s scored first once every 34 games he’s played & most sites have him at $51 or less. All the other plays are the same price as above aside from Kamikamica ($61 FTS on Sportsbet still worth taking) & Farnworth ($3 ATS PlayUp still worth taking).

Wicky Preview Thu 7/9 – The Storm continued their freakish winning streak against the Broncos last week at Suncorp. They meet again at the same venue but the teams are unrecognisable – both teams are at full strength. The only clear contrast we can see in both sides is that the Storm have named Papenhuyzen and Garlick on their bench with Asofa-Solomona the only ‘Prop’ named on their bench. This could be something the Broncos look to exploit with Haas and Carrigan well rested and capable of playing 60-70 minutes each.

Herbie Farnworth will be running at Marion Seve and isn’t one to pass much (Oates scored 0 tries in 9 games in 2023). Our model has him priced at $2.59, so we still love the $3 on offer for him to score anytime on TAB, Betr & PlayUp. Jahrome Hughes career strike rate converted to odds to score anytime would be $2.91. Our model has him priced at $4.06 – you can see why we love the $4.75 for him to score anytime on Unibet.

Harry Grant is a standout pick at $34 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. He scores a try ever 3.4 NRL games – a freakish strike rate for a hooker. All other bookies have him at $26 or less – clear value. Tui Kamikamica is $67 to score the first and last try on Dabble. He’s done it every 44 NRL games he’s played and that includes many games where he would have started off the bench! We know Grant and Garlick are both great at putting their middle forwards over – even Christian Welch has scored two tries in recent weeks! Eliesa Katoa has looked great alongside Jahrome Hughes in recent weeks on the Storm’s right side. The $11.50 on Neds for him to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try is a standout price ($6-8.5 on SB & TAB) and it’s similar to $34.50 for FTS – most bookies have him at $26 or less.

We discussed the Storm’s bench forwards as a potential weakness in this matchup. We love Kobe Hetherington’s running style and aggression and the $61 for him to crash over first in the 2nd half is a good price against a Storm pack with Papenhuyzen and Garlick on the bench.

Panthers v Warriors

Sat 9/9, 4.05pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Brian To’o ATS @ $1.80 on TAB (This got up)

Sunia Turuva ATS @ $2.20 on Bet Right** (This got up)

Isaah Yeo ATS @ $6.50 on PlayUp**

Stephen Crichton ATS @ $2.35 on Unibet**

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak FTS & LTS @ $15 on TAB

Jackson Ford 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $19 on Neds

Wayde Egan 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $16 on Neds

Marata Niukore 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $17 on Neds

Josh Curran LTS @ $51 on TAB

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Game Day Update 9/9 – Johnson has been replaced by Dylan Walker in the halves and Tago has been replaced by Tyrone Peachey in the centres.  Edit – Garner is now playing centre, Peachey on the bench likely comes on at dummy half. The 4 Panthers ATS plays are all shorter now with the SJ news hitting. They’ll still be marginally good value but more of a decision if you want to get on them personally. The 1st, 2nd or 3rd prices are $19, $17 & $19 for Ford, Egan & Niukore respectively. The prices are still decent but we’d recommend staking less on them with the Panthers such strong favourites now. Dallin is widely $13-14 for FTS & LTS & Curran is now $51 for LTS on Bet Right.

Update Fri 8/9 – Shaun Johnson has officially been ruled out which makes the Warriors plays above much less attractive – we definitely wouldn’t take the Warriors picks at a lower price than quoted above. We’ve also added the Yeo, Crichton and Turuva picks above. The line has moved in favour of the Panthers and our model has now identified these players as good value to score anytime.

Wicky Preview Thu 7/9 – Both sides are full strengths aside from their five-eighths. Jarome Luai is aiming to return for the Preliminary final weekend and Metcalf has been replaced by Te Maire Martin for the remainder of the Warriors’ season. The Warriors have been impressive this year but playing the Panthers in Penrith – it’s hard to see them keeping the game close.

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has been incredibly impressive on the right wing outside Shaun Johnson in 2023. He’s now $13 for FTS & LTS on TAB & Pointsbet. It’s still OK value but more of a bet if you want to ride the Warriors in this one. Brian To’o is still $1.80 on TAB to score anytime – our model has him priced at $1.55 and the Panthers at home in a day time game, this is still excellent value.

For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market – the prices are all the same as listed above. Niukore on Shaun Johnson’s right edge, Egan the dummy half who loves a scoot and returning to his old home ground + Ford who’s scored a few tries in 2023 on the Warriors’ left edge are all great value here.

Josh Curran should play on an edge late in the 2nd half – we loved the $51 for him to score last but he’s widely available at $41 now which is a marginal play.

Sharks v Roosters

Sat 9/9, 7.50pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Braydon Trindall FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365

Luke Keary 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $12.50 & 2+ tries @ $51 on Neds

Toby Rudolf FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble

Tom Hazelton FTS2H @ $41 on Pointsbet & Betr

Wade Graham FTS @ $41 on Bet Right**

Nat Butcher FTS @ $34 on Bet Right**

Siosifa Talakai FTS @ $26 on Bet Right**

Blayke Brailey FTS @ $61 on Bet Right**

We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!

Game Day Update 9/9 – Uele has been ruled out with Royce Hunt named to start for him. This may change again in the 1hr final update. Trindall is still $34 for FTS & LTS on 365. Nat Butcher is now $34 for FTS on Betr – our model’s favourite pick for FTS in this game. Wade Graham is now $38 at best on Topsport for FTS which we still like. Talakai is still $26 on Bet Right. Brailey is $56 for FTS on Sportsbet which we still like. Rudolf is still $67 for FTS & LTS on Dabble & $67 for FTS on Sportsbet. Thomas Hazelton is still $41 for FTS 2nd half on Pointsbet.

Update Fri 8/9 – We’ve added four picks on Bet Right above – they’re all standout prices for the First Try Scorer market. They’re all 10-20% higher than the 2nd best bookie price or our model’s price for that player to score first.

Wicky Preview Thu 7/9 – The bookies can’t split these two teams and honestly, neither can we. The only weakness we could see if Daniel Tupou and Waerea-Hargreaves missing for the Roosters. Two key, experienced players who are replaced by two rookies in Pauga and Baker. The Sharks are also missing a couple of players in Will Kennedy and Dale Finucane – but Tracey has done a good job in recent weeks and their forward pack has good depth. We’ll tip the Sharks in a close one but let’s hope it goes to extra time!

Braydon Trindall has been impressive for the Sharks since taking over Matt Moylan’s spot in the halves on the left edge. He’s scored 3 tries in the last 7 games since he’s returned – most bookies have him at $26 or less but he’s $34 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 + $34 for FTS on Betr. Luke Keary is still $12.50 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try & $51 to score 2 or more tries on Neds. He’s scored 2 tries in a game one in every 23 games and the next best odds for this market at $34 – you can see why we love the $51. $12.5o for the 1/2/3 market would be similar to seeing $37.50 for FTS – most bookies have him at $30 or less. We love the price on both of these markets for Keary here.

Toby Rudolf is still $67 for FTS & LTS on Dabble + $67 for FTS on Topsport. He’s looked good since his return from injury a few weeks ago and the forward pack is the Roosters’ weakness so we like $67 for him to score first or last. Tom Hazelton is $41 to score the first try in the 2nd half on Pointsbet – he’s been incredible in 2023 and we love this pick up against the bench Roosters pack.

If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.

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