Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for State of Origin Game 1 2023. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets for Origin, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for the $40,000 contest.
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Maroons v Blues
Wed 31/5, 8.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Daly Cherry-Evans First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $34 on Betr & ATS @ $6.75 on Sportsbet
Tom Gilbert FTS @ $51 on Betr
Jarome Luai FTS @ $34 on Topsport + FTS2H @ $34 on TAB + 1st, 2nd or 3rd try (one market) @ $12 on TAB
Tino Faasamaleuai Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $15 on Sportsbet + First Try Scorer 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $71 on Sportsbet
Nathan Cleary Last Try Scorer (LTS) @ $26 on TAB
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Daly Cherry-Evans career strike rate for try scoring converted to betting odds would have him priced around $4.15. Yes it’s State of Origin and it’s likely to be lower scoring – but we love the $6.75 on offer on Sportsbet. If you were part of our Discord, we tipped it a week ago at $7.50! You can join for free here. The $34 for him to score first looks even better now that Latrell Mitchell has been ruled out for NSW and the line for the game is less than 2 points!
Tom Gilbert was $67-81 to score the first try when the news broke that he’d be starting in the 2nd row for Queensland. We tipped him at $67 for FTS & $15 to score anytime on our Discord. He’s still amazingly available at $51. Our model and most bookies have him priced between $30-40, the $51 is clear value for him to score first.
Jarome Luai has been priced around $26-30 by our model and most bookies to score the first try. He’s available at $34 to score the first try (Topsport) and FTS 2nd Half (TAB) which we think is a decent value pick.
Nathan Cleary has scored the last try in every 10 NRL games he’s played. Yes we understand it’s Origin – but he’s proven to be a try scorer late in games. We love the $26 for him to score the last try on TAB.
We’ve saved the best for last. Tino Faasamaleuai is one of the best middle forward try scorers in the NRL. His odds would be $5.50 if you purely went by his NRL try scoring stats. He’ll play less minutes than usual for Queensland and it’ll be a lower scoring game than most Titans’ games would be! We’ve tipped him at $67 or higher for FTS, FTS 2nd Half & $15 for ATS. He’s still available at $67-71 for FTS 2nd Half – which we love as he’s named on the bench. If he’s moved to the starting side an hour before the game, he’s the same price for FTS which we’d love also.
NRL Draftstars – $40,000 contest
The first game of the 2023 Origin series is expected to be a tight, low-scoring affair. Generally, we think it’s best to rely on big minute forwards & tackle-busting backs. Check out our Draftstars stats bible with projected scores and Wicky’s value ratings to help you get started. 1st prize is almost $4k in tonight’s main $40,000 contest – if you want to have a crack at it, you can make a Draftstars/Playup account here.
Value Picks
Pat Carrigan. He played roughly 65 minutes in all 3 games last season. He won the Wally Lewis Medal for Player of the Series – no reason to think he’ll play any less minutes in this game. Had an incredible game for the Broncos a couple of weeks ago too. First forward picked for us.
Cam Murray. Murray’s been priced cheaply as he’s named on the bench. But with TPJ as one of the forwards as well as Hynes and Martin on the bench, we think Murray, Yeo and Haas will play huge minutes. Murray’s priced at $11,960 which is considerably cheaper than Haas and Yeo.
Fade Options
Reece Walsh. Most fans and pundits expect this to be a tight, low-scoring affair. Walsh isn’t a big tackle buster and will rely on attacking plays for his points. We think he could struggle to crack 50 points even with a try or try assist.
James Tedesco. This is a huge call. As we see in the betting markets – there’s always a bias towards Blues players come Origin time. Tedesco’s fantasy numbers have been down on his elite standards. With the Panthers dominating the NSW side, we think the attack may go in a different direction and Teddy could be left doing the grunt work without getting the big attacking plays he needs for a big score.
Example team
Player of the Match
Isaah Yeo @ $26 on Sportsbet
Cam Murray @ $36 on Sportsbet
Murray & Yeo are both around $5 higher on Sportsbet than most other bookies. With Pangai Junior in the NSW side, we think these two and Haas will play huge minutes for the Blues. In a game that’s likely to be extremely close, we love the price for these two who are a key part of the Blues and Aussie side.
Want to know more about how we built our try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Earlier Value Picks
As always – our value picks will go on to our Discord first. It is free to join, however, we’re almost at 2,500 users so you’ll need to join to make sure you don’t miss the best prices!
Some of the value picks we mentioned on there include Tom Gilbert $15 ATS & $67 FTS (surprisingly he’s still $51 for FTS on Betr!) when it was confirmed he would be starting on an edge for Queensland. DCE 2+ @ $101 on Sportsbet ($51 or less on most bookies). Tino anytime try scorer paying $15-17 (almost triple the odds it would be based off his career strike rate). David Fifita POTM @ $56 (now around $30 on most sites).
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