Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 13 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round.
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Knights v Manly
Sun 28/5, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Ben Condon ATS @ $12, LTS @ $61 & FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet + Pointsbet/Betr
Ethan Bullemor ATS @ $13 + FTS2H @ $67 on Betr (similar prices on Sportsbet)
Taniela Paseka FTS + LTS @ $101, Team FTS + LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Brad Parker FTS @ $34 + $5.50 on Neds/Lads
Update Sun 28/5 – Paseka is now $81 at best to score the first try which we think is OK value. The $101 for FTS & LTS, $41 for Team FTS & LTS are gone. Brad Parker is $34 to score the first try & $5.50 to score a try anytime on Neds/Ladbrokes which we still like.
Bullemor and Condon are around $13-17 ATS on Sportsbet & Betr respectively. They are $67 for FTS2H on Betr and $71-81 for FTS2H on Sportsbet. Bullemor is more locked in to get big minutes with Jake Trbojevic out, Condon is likely to get 20-40 minutes with Fainu starting on the left edge. So we love these plays at above $10 to score any time and say $61 for FTS2H. Huge upside here.
The Knights should definitely be favourites in this one but they have conceded 26, 46 and 43 points in their last 3 games. Parker and Condon (when he plays on the edge) will play on the left edge where Josh Schuster was on fire last weekend too.
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Dolphins v Dragons
Thu 25/5, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Kenny Bromwich First Try Scorer @ $41 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Josh Kerr First Try Scorer 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $71 on Sportsbet ($67 on Betr)
Update 25/5 – Kenny Bromwich is still $41 to score the first try on Neds/Ladbrokes. Our model has him priced at $31 and he’s noticeably better priced on Neds/Lads than most bookies. He’s played in the middle of the field for most of this season so hopefully he’s excited about getting some time on the edge and crashes over early!
Josh Kerr is still $71 to score the first try in the 2nd half on Sportsbet. He’s also $67 on Neds/Lads. The Dragons are outsiders in this one, however, with Nicholls and Wallace the only recognised forwards on the Phins’ bench – we love Kerr at this price even more than most weeks!
Eels v Cowboys
Fri 26/5, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Reece Robson FTS @ $41 on Betr (now $41 on Sportsbet)
Luciano Leilua FTS @ $41 on Bet365
Chad Townsend FTS + LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Jack Gosiewski Last Try Scorer (LTS) @ $67 on Bet365
Update 7.20pm 26/5 – In Final teams, Gosiewski has been named to start with Luciano on the bench. If possible – Gosiewski is $41 for FTS & Luciano is $41 for LTS on Bet365.
Update Fri 26/5 – Gosiewski is still $67 to score the last try on Bet365. Townsend is still $67 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Luciano Leilua is still $41 on Bet365 to score the first try. Robson is now $41 on Sportsbet to score the first try.
Chad Townsend is priced around $51-61 by most bookies, our model and would be at that price if you went off his career stats so far. The Cowboys were shocking last week and the Eels were great. We think there’s a chance the Cowboys are fired up early or they’ll be more likely to score a try late in the game if they do happen to get smacked by the Eels.
Luciano Leilua is named to start for the Cowboys with Jack Gosiewski on the bench. Luki and Leilua are unlikely to play out the whole game – which is why we love the $41 for Leilua to score the first try and $67 for Gosiewski to score the last try. Gosiewski had scored 2 tries in 2 weeks before he lost his spot to Leilua last week. Leilua is priced under $30 by every bookie and his career strike rate at scoring the first try would have him priced under $30 as well. Clear to see why we love the $41 on offer! Gosiewski being priced as middle forward when he’ll be playing on the edge to finish the game is a ridiculous price also. He’s priced under $40 on most other bookies.
Reece Robson’s strike rate at scoring the first try converted to betting odds would be $21. The Cowboys are big outsiders in this contest, however, we think the $41 on Sportsbet or Topsport to score the first try is a tad too high. We wouldn’t play it at $34, but we think Robson will be up for a big game and the $41 to score first is value.
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Warriors v Broncos
Sat 27/5, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Kobe Hetherington FTS @ $101 on Sportsbet
Marata Niukore FTS @ $34 on Neds/Lads
Cory Paix FTS2H @ $67 on Neds/Lads
Update 27/5 – Kobe Hetherington is now $81 on Sportsbet to score the first try. Niukore is still $34 to score the first try & Paix is still $67 to score the first try in the 2nd half – both on Neds/Ladbrokes.
Kobe Hetherington is still OK value at $81 to score the first try – most bookies have him at $61 or less. With Haas, Carrigan & Flegler out – Hetherington will need to step up and we love his energy and running style. Niukore is the right side back rower next to Shaun Johnson – we think the $34 is an excellent price against a Broncos lineup missing 5 of their Origin stars. He should be priced around $26-31 according to his career strike rate, our model & most bookies.
Cory Paix has been a value pick a few weeks in a row. A couple of weeks ago, he scored 4 minutes too late against the Storm. This same bet would have gotten up at the same price! We love this play here for him to sneak over early in the 2nd half. Most sites have him around $40-60 for the same market.
Rabbitohs v Raiders
Sat 27/5, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Josh Papalii ATS @ $9-10 on Sportsbet, Betr & Dabble + FTS @ $61 on Sportsbet
Zac Woolford FTS @ $67 on Neds/Lads
Jamal Fogarty, Michael Chee-Kam & Lachy Ilias FTS + LTS @ $41 on most sites
Jamal Fogarty, Michael Chee-Kam & Lachy Ilias ATS @ $7 on Sportsbet & Betr
Tom Starling FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $51 on Sportsbet
Corey Harawira-Naera FTS + LTS @ $41 + ATS @ $6 on Bet365
Update 27/5 – Corey Harawira-Naera was a great price on Bet365 but has now been crunched in. For the anytime try scorer market – Papalii is $9-10 on Sportsbet, Betr & Dabble still. Chee-Kam is now $6 at best on Pointsbet – with Koloamatangi in the team now, we’d suggest staying away. Ilias is $6-6.25 on Pointsbet, Sportsbet & Betr which is still OK. Fogarty is $6.75-7 on Betr & Sportsbet which we still like.
For the first & last try scorer markets – Fogarty is still $41 for FTS on Sportsbet, Betr & Topsport. Chee-Kam & Ilias are still $41 on Pointsbet for FTS. For last try scorer – Fogarty, Ilias & Chee-Kam are all $41 for LTS. We’d recommend waiting for final team lists (we’ll post this on our free Discord) to make decisions on Chee-Kam, he’ll likely start or finish the game on the edge for the Rabbits.
Woolford is still $67 for FTS on Neds/Lads. Tom Starling is still $51 for FTS2H on Sportsbet.
Josh Papali’i is our favourite play this game. He’s around $9-10 to score the first try when his historical strike rate would suggest he should be closer to $5 + most bookies have him around $6-7.5. With Horsburgh playing on an edge and Whitehead ruled out (so CHN playing on another edge) it should means Papali’i plays more minutes than usual too. The $61 for him to score first is also a great price, his career strike rate would have him under $40 and most bookies have him at $51 or less.
Woolford and Starling are great prices against an understrength Rabbits team. Woolford’s starting and Starling’s on the bench – so we have them to score the first try and first try in the 2nd half respectively. Woolford’s $51 or less on most bookies – we like the price here and the matchup against a Rabbits team missing Murray, Latrell, Arrow and Campbell Graham. Starling loves running the ball and is priced at $41 or less by most bookies and would be priced at $37 if you went off his career strike rate.
Fogarty and Ilias are both the right sides halves for their teams today. The $7 for them to score anytime and $41 for first or last try (2 separate bets) are decent value compared to our model. Chee-Kam was decent value also but with Koloamatangi returning, we’d suggest staying away if you’re not already on or waiting for final teams.
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