Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 14 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round.
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Roosters v Bulldogs
Sun 4/6, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Max King FTS @ $126 on Sportsbet
Jacob Kiraz FTS @ $16 on Neds/Ladbrokes (void – he’s ruled out)
Jacob Preston FTS + LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Josh Addo-Carr ATS @ $2.75 on Neds/Lads
Update Sun 4/6 – With Collins and Pangai Junior backing up + Crichton on the bench, this could mean a lot of changes in both forward packs. As we did yesterday – finding Tino ($12.50 ATS, almost double the price he should’ve been) + his brother Iszac ($101 to score the first try when he was moved from the bench, and he did it!) we’ll look out for final teams 1 hr before the game and send a message on our free Discord.
Jacob Preston has been impressive for the Bulldogs this season and the $29 for FTS seems like a good price for someone who’s on Burton’s left edge and scored in 3 of his 12 NRL games already. Max King is purely a play on the $126 price. Watch out for final teams and any forwards who are still $101 or above – we think this game will be closer than the line suggests.
Addo-Carr is clearly a good price at $2.75 compared to both our model and other bookies. We’ve also added a multi including this price on our free Discord.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Cowboys v Storm
Sun 4/6, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Cam Munster ATS @ $3.70 + FTS & LTS @ $21 on Bet365
Kyle Feldt ATS @ $2.55 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Tom Dearden FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Chad Townsend FTS + LTS @ $61 on Pointsbet
Aaron Pene FTS2H @ $91 on Sportsbet
Update Sun 4/6 – It’s ridiculous that all these plays have stayed at the same price till gameday.
Munster is a noticeably higher price on 365 than other bookies. He just came off scoring the last try in Game 1 of Origin. Our model and most bookies have him at $2.95 or less. You’re getting $3.60 on Bet365 still – clear value. Our model and most bookies have him at $16.50 or less for FTS, Bet365 has him at $21. We love the $21 for FTS and LTS here.
The Cowboys are getting Nanai and Taulagi back as well as a fresh Dearden. Holmes and Cotter are backing up but so are Grant and Munster.
Tom Dearden’s career strike rate for FTS would have him priced at $11. Most bookies have him at $26 or less. Bet365 has him at $34 – clear value.
Kyle Feldt’s career strike rate and our model’s odds would have him priced at $2-2.15. We love the $2.50 on Neds/Lads for him to score anytime especially given how lethal Scotty Drinkwater has been recently. Also on that right side, Chad Townsend has been priced around $45-55 by our model and most bookies, so we like the $61 for him to score first as well.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Panthers v Dragons
Sun 4/6, 6.15pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Moses Leota FTS @ $61 on Sportsbet
Dylan Edwards ATS @ $2.55 on Neds/Ladbrokes (still $2.33 on bet365)
Frank Molo FTS @ $151 on Sportsbet
Moses Suli FTS @ $41 on Neds
Spencer Leniu FTS2H @ $51 on Pointsbet
Update Sun 4/6 – Leota is now $61 on Pointsbet only. Edwards was crunched in on Neds but is still $2.33 on Bet365 which we still think is OK. Molo, Suli and Leniu are still the prices quoted above.
Spencer Leniu scored the first try in the 2nd half at Magic Round at $101 for us. His odds are half of that here but the Panthers are strong favourites and he’s already done it 4 times in 70 games. Moses Leota at $61 to score the first try is almost 20% better than our model’s price as well as most other bookies.
The Dragons are huge outsiders but every player can be good value at a certain price. We think Frank Molo at $151 and Moses Suli at $41 are good value picks. Suli scored the first try against the Roosters a couple of weeks ago and the Panthers do concede tries through the middle in 2023 so we also like Frank Molo at $151s to crash over first. He’s done it twice in 98 games, is priced at $101 or less by most bookies and even our model only has him at $110 to score the first try.
Dylan Edwards has been in freakish form in 2023 and the two plays on Neds were standout prices. He’s paying $2 or less on most other bookies and our model has him at $2.23 – so the $2.33 on 365 is still a decent price.
Tigers v Raiders
Fri 2/6, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jamal Fogarty First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $46 on Sportsbet (This won! Fogarty scored the first try)
Zac Woolford FTS @ $67 on Neds
Joe Tapine FTS + LTS @ $61 on Pointsbet
Emre Guler First Try Scorer 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $81 on Neds/Ladbrokes
John Bateman Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $5.25 on Neds/Ladbrokes (This won – Bateman crashed over from dummy half against his old side!)
Josh Papalii ATS @ $8.5-$8.75 on Sportsbet + Betr
Albert Hopoate FTS @ $18 + ATS @ $3.05 on Topsport (This lost – but we were right, he did play on the wing so it was a great value play!)
Update Fri 2/6 – Fogarty is still $46 to score the first try on Playup. He’s $41 on Topsport and Pointsbet also which we think is still decent value. Woolford is still $67 on Neds/Lads + $61 on Pointsbet and Sportsbet. Tapine is still $61 for FTS/LTS on Pointsbet. Guler is still $81 for FTS2H on Neds/Lads. Bateman is now $5 on Lads/Neds which we think is OK. Josh Papali’i is still $8.50 to score a try anytime on Sportsbet + Betr. Albert Hopoate is $3 & $17 for ATS & FTS on Pointsbet.
Albert Hopoate is named at centre but there’s a chance he goes back to the left wing (Rapana to FB, Smith-Shields to centre). We think the FTS & ATS plays are minimal/no risk at the current price with huge upside if he does play on the wing! We’ll add detailed reasoning to the article on Thursday.
Emre Guler at $81 to score the first try in the 2nd half is our favourite play for this game. Guler plays off the bench for the Raiders and should get big minutes – he’s $61 or less on most other bookies for the same market.
Josh Papalii – same reasoning as every week! He’s the best middle forward try scorer in the NRL. However, bookies don’t price him accordingly. Love the $8.50 for him to score anytime on Sportsbet & Betr given he’ll get more minutes than usual with no CHN and Whitehead (therefore Horse playing on the edge).
Zac Woolford should be paying around $53 & Jamal Fogart should be paying around $33 to score the first try according to our model. You can see why we like them at $67 and $46 on Neds and Playup respectively. They’re also 10% higher on these sites than most other bookies.
Joseph Tapine hasn’t scored a try all season. In fact, he’s only scored 2 tries in 36 games since Round 1 2022. This is a marginal value play – but the $61 on offer on Pointsbet is way better than the $46 or less he is on most sites.
John Bateman is up against his old club and is starting on the wing and finishing games roving through the middle of the field. Not an amazing value play – moreso the matchup and his recent form.
Warriors v Dolphins
Sat 3/6, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Marata Niukore FTS @ $41 & ATS @ $6 + FTS Team @ $19 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Kenny Bromwich FTS @ $51 on Neds/Labdrokes
Jarrod Wallace FTS2H @ $71 on Sportsbet (edit – he’s now benched, we mentioned him as good value as fts on our Discord)
Mark Nicholls FTS2H @ $61 on Pointsbet
Update Sat 3/6 – Niukore is $5.80 for ATS on Neds/Lads which is still a great price and $41 for FTS which we love. We’ve also added $19 for FTS Team as a value pick. Kenny Bromwich is playing on an edge and is still $51 for FTS on Neds/Lads. Jarrod Wallace and Mark Nicholls are good value at $61 or above – the $71 on Sportsbet for Wallace and $61 for Nicholls on Pointsbet are still there. If there are any amazing value picks after final teams (1 hr before each NRL game) – we will announce it on our free Discord so make sure you join.
Jarrod Wallace has scored in 9 of his last 52 games since 2021. That puts him in the top tier of middle forwards for try scorer strike rates in that time. The $71 for FTS2H on Sportsbet is an excellent price for Wallace.
Mark Nicholls has scored in 6 of his last 54 games in the same timeframe. He’s scored a try in each of his last two games. In Round 8, he won us a first try scorer 2nd half play at $101! It’s clear to see why we like the price for Wallace and Nicholls – both are 15-20% higher on the bookies we’ve suggested than most other bookies.
Marata Niukore is playing on Shaun Johnson’s right side & is priced significantly higher on Neds/Lads than other bookies. We love the tactical matchup and the price here. Most bookies, our model & his career strike rate would have him priced around $25-30 for FTS. We’re getting $41 against an understrength Dolphins outfit playing away in Auckland.
Kenny Bromwich is purely a play at the number – $51 for an edge backrower where most sites and our model have him at $46 or less.
Titans v Rabbitohs
Sat 3/6, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tevita Tatola FTS + 2nd TS @ $81 (2 separate plays) on Sportsbet
Campbell Graham ATS @ $2.70 on Bet365 (This won)
Alex Johnston FTS @ $8 on Betr
Joe Stimson FTS @ $51 on Topsport
Lachlan Ilias FTS @ $41 on Betr + ATS @ $6-6.25 on Sb/Betr)
Update Sat 3/6 – Ilias is now $34 for FTS and $5.3 for ATS – OK value at best. Stimson is now $44 for FTS on Topsport which is OK. Cam Graham is still $2.70 for ATS on 365. Johnston is still $8 to score first on Betr. Tatola is $81 for FTS but isn’t $81 for 2nd ts anymore. We like him at $71 or more for this market. We update value picks that pop up closer to final teams (an hour before each game) on our free Discord so make sure you join!
We tipped Alex Johnston to score the first try at $8 on the live Trypod show earlier this week. With no Latrell, we think Walker will get more ball on the Rabbitohs’ left and Walker is a great chance of sneaking over early against the Titans’ weak defence. Our model has him at $6.60 and most bookies have him at $7 or less.
Campbell Graham is priced at $2.25 or less by our model and most bookies. The $2.70 from 365 for him to score anytime seems like a mistake on their end. Great price against the Titans left edge without Foran and Fifita backing up from Origin!
Tatola at $81 to score the first try on Sportsbet is more a play on the number. Souths are strong favourites, the Titans are missing a couple of their important players and have Tino and David Fifita backing up. We love him for 1st, 2nd or last try (separate markets) at $71 or more.
Stimson and Ilias are no longer $51 and $41 for FTS anymore – if they do pop up at that price we think they’re both good plays. Especially Ilias in a strong Rabbitohs outfit.
Sharks v Broncos
Sat 3/6, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Matt Moylan FTS @ $34 on Topsport/Pointsbet
Cory Paix FTS2H @ $67 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Thomas Hazleton FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet
Braden Uele ATS @ $8.5 on Sportsbet, Betr & Topsport
Payne Haas FTS @ $67 on Sportsbet
Oregon Kaufusi FTS @ $101 on Sportsbet
Kobe Hetherington FTS2H @ $101 on Sportsbet
Update Sat 3/6 – Braden Uele is still $8.50 to score anytime on Topsport. We’ll add him in as a FTS or FTS2H play after final teams depending on when he’s starting or not (he’s currently named on the bench). The number we want to see is $61. Paix is still $67 for FTS2H on Neds/Lads. Hazleton is $67 for FTS2H which makes it an OK value play. Moylan is now $29 for FTS which is close to most bookies and our model so we don’t think it’s great value anymore.
Braden Uele has scored 7 tries in 91 games including the first try in the 2nd half 4 times! He’s close to the elite bunch of try scoring middle forwards – so we like the $8.50 for him to score anytime but we would love $61 for FTS or FTS2H depending on when he’s starting or benched. As always – most of our plays are announced in our (free) Discord so make sure you join.
Paix is less than $50 on most other bookies. He’ll come off the bench and should be fresh early in the 2nd half.
Hazleton’s come close to breaking the line a couple of times in the last month – we loved the $81 price against a Broncos side that could rest a couple of Origin players.
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