Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for this weekend’s international rugby league, covering week 3 of the Pacific Championships!
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Kangaroos v Kiwis (Men)
Sat 28/10, 8.10pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jahrome Hughes FTS & LTS @ $34 on TAB
Ben Hunt FTS @ $31 on Neds
Nelson Asofa-Solomona ATS @ $8 on Bet365
Nicho Hynes LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Moses Leota FTS @ $76 & 2nd TS @ $91 on Sportsbet (edit – added 2nd ts)
Leo Thompson FTS2H @ $91 on Sportsbet
Wicky Preview Fri 27/8 – These two teams will play each other in the final of this competition next week. They’ve both had strong outings against Samoa in the last two weeks. The full sides can be found here and remember the final updates are always 1 hour before kick-off. We’ve seen a few tries for middle forwards against Samoa from both of these teams – there are some good prices around for this game for middle forwards so as always, we’re keen on them at juicy prices.
NAS (Asofa-Solomona) is paying $8 to score anytime – he scored last week and his odds according to his NRL strike rate would be closer to $6.50. The Aussies are missing big Tino & Payne Haas, we love the price here. Hunt & Hughes are a great price compared to their career strike rates in the NRL. Hynes should get some game time for the Aussies, we’re hoping he’s on in the halves or at fullback towards the end of the game. Which would make his $29 a great price. We’re happy to take most of the middle forwards at $67 or above (starters for FTS/LTS, benchies for FTS2H). As always – join our free Discord to see plays closer to the start of the game!
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PNG Kumuls v Fiji Bati (Men)
Sun 29/10, 4pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tui Kamikamica FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Taane Milne ATS @ $5.75 & FTS @ $34 on Neds
Dan Russell 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $10, ATS @ $4.60 on Sportsbet
The full sides can be found here and remember the final updates are always 1 hour before kick-off. Our tips have been made off players who are noticeably higher priced on one bookie and/or their try scoring ability during NRL games.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
England v Tonga
Sun 29/10, 12.30am
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tom Burgess FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Tyson Frizell FTS & LTS @ $41 & ATS @ $7 on Bet365
Addin Fonua-Blake FTS & LTS @ $41 & ATS @ $7 on Bet365
Tevita Tatola FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
This is the second of a 3 game series between these two teams in the UK. England looked the better team but only won by 4 points last week against Tonga. We’re expecting another close game – Tonga have made 4 changes so we’re hoping they’ve gelled together and are raring to go against the English at home!
Fonua-Blake had a ridiculous try scoring strike rate in 2023 – we’re happy to take him at the price above. Tyson Frizell scored last week and the $41 & $7 is obvious value for him. Burgess was an inch of scoring towards the end of the game – we love the $51s for him. Tatola is a pick more on the price – but he’s named to start so we do really like $67s.
Australia v New Zealand (Women)
Sat 28/10, 6pm
The Aussie & Kiwi Women’s teams can be found here. Try Scorer tips TBC.
New Zealand are coming off a 28-10 defeat of Tonga in Week 2 and are at full strength for this one, with Apii Nicholls, impressive defensively against Australia last time, returning to fullback. The reintroduction displaces the Premiership-winning Knight Shanice Parker to the wing, her third position in three games in the Pacific Championships.
Australia were 16-10 winners when these two sides met a couple of weeks ago and from that side, hooker Keeley Davis is replaced by the Titans’ prolific goal kicker Lauren Brown. Winger Julia Robinson is replaced by undoubtedly the player to watch in this game, Jakiya Whitfeld, newly signed for the Cowboys.
Players to watch
For Australia, look no further than Whitfeld. A star in a Wests Tigers side that finished bottom of the ladder in NRLW 2023, Whitfeld is incredibly exciting to watch – ridiculously fast, really strong, vital for the Tigers in both attack and defence. Last month, for the PM’s XIII, she scored four times in a 56-4 defeat of the PNG PM’s XIII.
Cowboys’ hooker Emma Manzelmann had an excellent season in the NRLW, accurate out of dummy half and frequently going on marauding runs, and is named on the bench for Australia here. On international debut, she’s the interchange player to watch in this game.
For New Zealand, the centres are their key attacking threats. Mele Hufanga has scored in both games so far and Abigail Roache, Premiership winner with the Knights, grabbed a hattrick against Tonga last time. Scoring multiple times in a game is very much in character for Roache – she scored two doubles in the NRLW season.
Keep an eye out for late team news as well. Australia have named a strong set of reserves – Shaylee Bent, Shenae Ciesiolka, Keeley Davis, and the NRLW’s top scorer Teagan Berry – who you’ll want to look out for if they make the starting XIII.
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