Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for this weekend’s international rugby league, covering the finals of the 2023 Pacific Championships!
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Kangaroos v Kiwis (Men)
Sat 4/11, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Ben Hunt 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $13 on Neds
Nelson Asofa-Solomona ATS @ $10 on Bet365
Tino Faasamaleuai FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Griffin Neame FTS2H @ $71 on Sportsbet
Joseph Tapine 2nd try scorer @ $81 on Sportsbet
Moses Leota FTS @ $76 on Sportsbet
Wicky Preview Fri 3/11 – The Kangaroos beat the Kiwis 36-18 last week but it’s important to note it was only 18-12 to the Kangaroos at half-time. They get Haas and big Tino back whereas the Kiwis are playing with the same side again. Can New Zealand step up when it counts or are the Kangaroos just a class above? The game will be played in Hamilton so the Kiwis will have the home crowd behind them – it should be a cracking contest!
Ben Hunt at $13 to score one of the first three tries (similar to seeing $39 for FTS) is a ridiculous price. Easily our favourite play for this game.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona scores around one every 6 NRL games. He’s already scored a couple of weeks against Samoa – he’ll be fired up to put on a show on the big stage, we love the $10 for ATS on 365.
Tino Faasamaleuai has scored the last try in games every 14 NRL games! His FTS strike rate is much worse (every 90 games) – however, he’s arguably the best modern day middle forward try scorer in the NRL. We love the $41 for FTS & LTS. Griffin Neame has scored the first try in the 2nd half once every 15 NRL games he’s played. Yes the Kiwis are outsiders – but the $71 for FTS2h is a great price. Moses Leota @ $76 for FTS & Joseph Tapine @ $81 for 2nd try scorer are more based on their price rather than noted try scorers but we still like the picks!
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
PNG Kumuls v Fiji Bati (Men)
Sun 5/11, 4pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tui Kamikamica FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Epel Kapinias FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Wicky Preview Fri 3/11 – PNG were favourites pre-tournament but after Fiji beat them 43-16 last week, the bookies now have Fiji as slight favourites heading into the final here. Should be a cracking game. We think PNG playing the final at Port Moresby could be a good play, given they let the scoreboard get out of control in a game where the result didn’t matter last week!
Kapinias scored against the PM XI and in both games in this tournament also – that’s 3/3 for him in the last month! He scored last against Fiji last week as well. Tui Kamikamica scored last week and both of these players are significantly lower prices on most bookies as well. We love both of these plays!
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
England v Tonga
Sun 5/11, 12.30am
Try Scorer Value Tips
TBC – teams aren’t confirmed and therefore try scorer markets aren’t out yet.
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