Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 8 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round.
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Storm v Warriors
Tue 25/4, 7pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Trent Loiero 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $19 & ATS @ $6.50 on TAB
Marata Niukore 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $18 on TAB & ATS @ $7.75 on Neds
Addin Fonua-Blake 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $101 on TAB
Josh Curran FTS2H & LTS @ $81 on TAB
Bunty Afoa & Tom Ale FTS2H @ $151 on TAB
Update Tues 25/4 – Loiero is now into $11 for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market on TAB which isn’t good value anymore. He’s still $51 to score the first try and $6 to score anytime which are both great value. Fonua-Blake is now $81 for FTS & LTS but still $101 for 2nd try scorer. Niukore, Curran, Afoa & Ale are the same price as above.
Josh Curran is the standout play here. He’s likely to get around 20 minutes on an edge at some point in the second half. He should be priced around $41-51 but is priced at $81 on TAB for FTS2H & LTS. Afoa & Ale are priced at $151 to score the first try in the 2nd half. Historically the Storm have done well against the Warriors in the Anzac Day contest, however, this is a new outfit under Andrew Webster. They are bench middle forwards but we think Afoa should be around $81 and Ale around $101-126 at most. This is more of a numbers play, but we love the value on offer here.
Addin Fonua-Blake has been in impressive form this season and most bookies have him at $67 or less to score the first try. His career strike rate at scoring the first try converted to odds is $35. The $81-101 for him to score the 1st, 2nd or last try (three separate bets) on TAB. Marata Niukore is the right side backrower for the Warriors. Shaun Johnson has been in electric form this season, which has led to multiple tries for his right side backrower. Niukore is not only a great price (our model and most bookies have him at $41 or less for FTS) but it’s an excellent tactical try scorer pick too. Josh Curran has been the beneficiary of Johnson’s work, scoring 2 tries in 170 minutes of action in the last three rounds. He’ll likely get 20-40 minutes hopefully including some time on that right edge! So it’s clear to see why we like the $81 for him to score either the first try of the second half or the last try of the game.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Well it's been a good day for our value plays. Tino at $26 to score any of the first three tries.
Then later in the same game – Nicholls goes BANG at $101 to score the first try in the 2nd half🔥🔥
Our value plays for the next 3 games:https://t.co/wO4hEbGUVj#NRL #sportsbet pic.twitter.com/GDmQ6ySBE5
— Wicky (@wickyai) April 23, 2023
Rabbitohs v Panthers
Thu 20/4, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Moses Leota First Try Scorer (FTS), Second Try Scorer (2nd TS) & Last Try Scorer (LTS) @ $81 on TAB
Thomas Burgess First Try Scorer (FTS), Second Try Scorer (2nd TS) & Last Try Scorer (LTS) @ $101 on TAB
Damien Cook 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $34 & ATS @ $11 on TAB (Cook scored the first try so both of these won)
Michael Chee-Kam, Jacob Host & Cam Murray 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $31 on TAB
Spencer Leniu First Try Scorer 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $101 on TAB
Davvy Moale First Try Scorer 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $101 on TAB
Update Wed 19/4 – Leota, Burgess, Leniu & Moale are all the same price. Cook, Chee-Kam, Host & Murray are all the same price for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market on TAB also.
Moses Leota is priced at $67 or less on most other bookies. Our model and his career strike rate would suggest his price should be around $60-65. It’s clear to see why we like the price for Leota at $81 to score the 1st, 2nd or last try on TAB. These are 3 separate bets – we’ve chosen them as this is when we think it’s most likely he’ll be on the field as a starting prop.
Spencer Leniu has scored 6 tries in 31 NRL games since Round 1 2022. That puts his strike rate up there with some of the best middle forwards in the NRL. What makes it better – he’s scored the first try in the 2nd half in 3 of those 31 games! He’s less than $50 on other bookies and his career strike rate for FTS 2nd half converted to odds would be $22.
Davvy Moale was mentioned by Denan Kemp on Bloke in a Bar and other media outlets for his standout performance last weekend for the Rabbitohs. He’s scored 2 tries in 4 games for Cook Islands in 2022, although he hasn’t scored an NRL try so far. We love the $101 for him to get over first in the 2nd half. He’s $67 or less on most bookies for the same market.
Host, Chee-Kam, Murray, Burgess & Cook are all significantly better priced on TAB than other bookies. They all have ‘green lights’ for model and market value meaning they’re clearly better priced than what our model or other bookies would suggest. For Burgess & Leota, we’ve chosen to play the 1st, 2nd or last try scorer markets (three separate bets) as they might not be on the field for the third try (starting props play around 25 minutes in their first stint). For the others, we love the value in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market (one bet).
These prices usually get significantly shortened by game day. There are over 10 really good value plays just in this game so we’ve made a decision to hand pick our favourites. Have a look at our odds comparison tool and go with who you think is the best value!
NRL Draftstars $15,000 Contest
Draftstars have a $15,000 contest for the blockbuster Souths v Panthers game. If you haven’t heard of Draftstars before – it’s a paid version of fantasy sports where you can enter a team for each game, rather than the traditional season long NRL Supercoach or NRL Fantasy. Our stats bible helps you with recent form, projected scored and a value rating to help pick the best players. We do partner with Draftstars so if you’d like to make an account, please sign up through the link here.
Eels v Broncos
Fri 21/4, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Mitchell Moses 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $13 on TAB
Payne Haas 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $41 on TAB
J’maine Hopgood Anytime try scorer (ATS) @ $16 on TAB
Tom Fleger Team FTS & LTS @ $67 on TAB
Reagan Campbell-Gillard Team FTS & LTS @ $41 on TAB
Update Fri 21/4 – Mitchell Moses is now $11 & Payne Haas is $34 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on TAB (one market). Tom Flegler is $51 to score the Broncos’ first & last try (two separate bets) & Hopgood is still $16 to score a try anytime. These are all on TAB. They are all still great value aside from Flegler who was purely a numbers play at $67 to score the first and last try for his team. $51 is now borderline.
Payne Haas has scored the first try in a game 3 times in 88 NRL games. Most bookies and our model have him priced at $67 or less to score the first try. The $34 for him to score any of the first three tries (TAB) would be similar to a $101 price. He’s also $81 to score the first try on TAB. Clear to see why we like the value on offer here. He’s also been in excellent form in 2023, clearly over his injury issues from last season.
His front row partner Tom Flegler is now $51 to score the Broncos’ first and last try (two separate bets). We loved it at $67, the $51 on offer now is borderline. Our model and most bookies have him around $65-90 to score the first try. So when we were getting $67 for him to score the first try just for the Broncos (not the game), you can see why we liked the price.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard scored an impressive try last weekend and should be closer to $70 according to our model and most bookies to score the first try. You can get $81 for him to score the first try, but the way we’d like to play it is $41 for him to score the Eels’ first or last try (two bets) on TAB.
Mitch Moses has looked great in 2023. Coming off a Grand Final loss in 2022, the pressure has been on him and his Eels. Revisiting this market, the $11 for him to score any of the first three tries on TAB is actually only decent value. He’s around $31-37 to score the first try on most bookies and our model. We do think he’ll step up in a big game and loved the $13 on offer earlier in the week.
J’maine Hopgood was mostly a numbers play also. Paying $16 to score a try anytime and $101 for FTS, LTS etc – we love the value on him here. We just want to wait till final team lists to see if he starts or stays on the bench. He’s playing big minutes in the middle of the field for Parra, if he stays on the bench he’d be running at the Broncos’ bench forwards so we love the $101 for first try scorer 2nd half on TAB.
Update after final teams – Hopgood confirmed to be on the bench, so the $101 for him to score the first try in the second half is a value play. Russell moved from the centres to the wing in the final team changes, we found him at $3-4 to score a try anytime on our Discord. If you want to get on value plays like this, join our free Discord!
Bulldogs v Sharks
Sat 22/4, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Reed Mahoney 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $31 on TAB
Blayke Brailey 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $34 & ATS @ $11 on TAB
Braden Uele 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $34 & ATS @ $11 on TAB
Matt Moylan 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 & ATS @ $5.50 on TAB (This won)
Teig Wilton ATS @ $4.50 on Sportsbet
Sat 22/4 Update – Teig Wilton & Blayke Brailey are significantly shorter now and no longer good value for anytime try scorer. Braden Uele is still decent value above $9 to score a try anytime on TAB & Sportsbet. Moylan is still $5.50 on TAB.
For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market (one bet) on TAB, Moylan is $11, Brailey is $13, Uele is $21 & Mahoney $23. Brailey and Uele are no longer a good price for this market. Moylan and Mahoney are still OK value.
Matt Moylan is priced at $4.50 or less by most other bookies and our model. The $5.50 for him to score anytime presents good value and we also love the matchups against an understrength Bulldogs side. Braden Uele is in the Josh Papali’i, Stefano Utoikmanu mould of having one of the best strike rates for scoring tries as a middle forward in the NRL. If you converted his historical strike rate to odds, it would be $6.62. The $9 on TAB or $9.50 on Sportsbet still represents great value for the anytime try scorer market. Reed Mahoney is priced at $51 or less on most bookies. He’s now $23 to score any of the first three tries on TAB. The simple way to look at this – 23*3 = 69. Our model has him priced around $74 and his first try scorer price is $69. Which is why we think the $23 is decent value. Shows the importance of getting on the number early, it was $34 only a couple of days ago!
Cowboys v Knights
Sat 22/4, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Chad Townsend 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $41 & ATS @ $11 on TAB
Coen Hess 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $41 & LTS @ $101 on TAB
Jackson Hastings 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $34 & ATS @ $11 on TAB
Lachlan Fitzgibbon ATS @ $5.60 on Sportsbet (This won)
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Update Sat 22/4 – Lachlan Fitzgibbon is still $5.30 on Sportsbet, Hastings & Townsend are still $11 on TAB to score a try anytime. Hess is is still $101 to score the last try on TAB. For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try market – Townsend is $29, Hess is still $41 and Hastings is still $34.
Lachlan Fitzgibbon was one of our value plays in the Punter’s Preview for Round 1 this season. The got over within the first minute of a Ponga pass. They re-unite today and we love the $5.30 for anytime try scorer, he’d be priced at $4.25 or less looking at other bookies and his career strike rate.
Chad Townsend and Jackson Hastings are priced as middle forwards in this game. As halfbacks in what should be a relatively close game, we think these prices are significantly higher than they should be. Hastings is a good value play but Townsend has ‘three green lights’ in our odds comparison tool – excellent value compared to our model, historical and market value ratings.
Coen Hess is named in the middle of the field but there is a chance he gets to play some of the game on the edge with Gosiewski starting there and no Luki and Neame in the squad. Even as a bench middle, the $41 for him to score any of the first three tries and $101 for him to score the last try is easily more than 1.5x price it is on other bookies so we love the value on offer here.
Dolphins v Titans
Sun 23/4, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jeremy Marshall-King 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $23 on TAB
Tino Faasumaleuai 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $26 & LTS @ $67 on TAB (Tino scored the third try, so we won @ $26)
Update Sun 23/4 – Tino is one of the best middle forward try scorers in the NRL. If he’s around $67 to score the first try and $7 for anytime try scorer – we think this is great value. Our model and most bookies have him under $60. Jeremy Marshall-King (JMK) should be $38 to score the first try according to our model and is priced under $30 on most bookies.
Both players’ prices have been crunched in for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market. JMK is at $51 and Tino is $67 to score the first try. We’ll now recommend getting on Tino to score the 1st, 2nd or last try (3 separate bets) at $67. And Marshall-King ATS @ $7 on TAB.
Jarrod Wallace, Mark Nicholls and Herman Ese’ese are three of the forwards we like at $81-101. But we’ll wait till final team lists to see if they are starting or benched and then post the final value plays on our Discord.
Update after final teams – We posted Nicholls at $101 to score the first try in the 2nd half on TAB, Ese’ese to score the 1st, 2nd or last try at $81 on TAB (3 separate bets) as official value plays on our Discord. Jarrod Wallace was $67 to score the first try in the 2nd half – this wasn’t an official value play but looked like a decent pick.
Tigers v Manly
Sun 23/4, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Lachlan Croker 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $31 & ATS @ $10 on TAB
Ethan Bullemor ATS @ $5.30 on Sportsbet. $34 FTS (Dabble & 365) & $6 ATS on Dabble.
Stefano Utoikamanu ATS @ $14 on Sportsbet
Taniela Paseka 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $81 on TAB (3 separate bets)
Update Sun 23/4 – We like Paseka and Aloiai at $81 or above for the first try scorer market. We’ll likely add further value plays on our Discord once final teams are announced an hour before kick-off. Utoikamanu is still the same odds on Sportsbet to score a try anytime. Croker is still the same price for both markets on TAB. Ethan Bullemor is a great hole runner and he’s actually paying $6 to score a try anytime on Dabble, which is ridiculous. The $5+ is still great value on Sportsbet.
Ethan Bullemor is an excellent hole runner, getting a starting 2nd row gig against the bottom ranked Tigers. He’s paying $6 on Dabble or $5+ on Sportsbet to score a try. He’s also $34 to score the first try on Dabble and Bet365 which we love. He should be $25-30 at most according to our model and most bookies.
Lachlan Croker is the best value play in this contest. He’s paying $10 to score a try anytime & $31 to score any of the first three tries (one market) on TAB. That number would be similar to seeing $93 for him to score the first try – he’s 42 or less on most bookies and our model. Incredible value for a Manly player against the Tigers.
Stefano Utoikamanu has been in our value plays every week this season. He’s scored one try and is playing big minutes and back to his 2021 form. We love the $14 price for him to score a try anytime. The Manly middle forwards – especially Aloiai and Paseka are ridiculously good value at $81 to score the first try and even the $10 to score a try anytime. We’ll wait till final team lists an hour before kick-off to finalise more value plays on them.
Roosters v Dragons
Tue 25/4, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Joseph Manu Anytime Try Scorer @ $3.70 on Bet365
Ben Murdoch-Masila 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $31 on TAB & ATS @ $10 on TAB & Sportsbet.
Ben Hunt FTS @ $34 on Topsport
Egan Butcher FTS @ $31 on Topsport
Josh Kerr FTS2H @ $151 & ATS @ $21 on TAB
Update Tues 25/4 – Butcher, Hunt and Manu are still available at the price above. Murdoch-Masila is now $23 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd. We think the $67 for FTS and $10 for ATS is a better play with the odds as they are now. Kerr is still $21 to score anytime but his FTS2H price is now $101 which we think is still decent value.
Ben Hunt & Egan Butcher are priced around $21-26 on most bookies yet we’ve found them at $34 and $31 respectively on Topsport. We know Hunt lifts for the big occasions and Egan Butcher has showed promising signs so far this season. Hunt’s career strike rate at scoring the first try converted to odds would be $17, half of the price we’re getting here.
Joseph Manu has been good value for a few weeks now and hasn’t scored. He’s now playing in the halves with Sam Walker being dropped. We think getting his hands on the ball more often will do wonders for him and the $3.70 represents clear value. Our model and most bookies have him at $2.80 or less.
Ben Murdoch-Masila has averaged 70 metres and 1 tackle break in 62 minutes across his 5 NRL games in 2023. These aren’t promising stats for a starting edge back rower, however, we love the price on offer for a player who steps up in his runs close to the line. He should get around 60 minutes again and whether it’s the $23 for him to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try (one market) on TAB, $67 for FTS or $10 for ATS – we think there’s clear value here.
Frank Molo scored the first try in last year’s Anzac Day game at $151. He’s missing in this game but it would be an amazing story of Josh Kerr could score the first try of the 2nd half at the same price this year! Unfortunately the price is now $101 but we still think the $21 for him to score anytime is decent value.
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
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