Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 7 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round.
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Raiders v Dragons
Sun 16/4, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Blake Lawrie FTS & LTS @ $101 on Bet365
Jamal Fogarty FTS @ $41 & $6.75 on Neds
Ben Murdoch-Masila FTS @ $51 on Neds & ATS @ $8 on Sportsbet (Void – ruled out)
Update Fri 14/3 – All the value plays above are available at the same price.
Blake Lawrie has scored two tries in six games this season! He’s priced around $70-80 by most bookies and our model. With Frank Molo missing for the Dragons, Lawrie will need to step up and should definitely be on the field for the first and last try – so we love the $101 available on Bet365.
Ben Murdoch-Masila was in our punter’s preview article last weekend as well as a value play. Although he didn’t get the job done, he does look dangerous near the line. He’s $41 or less with most other bookies and our model to score the first try. So it’s clear to see why we like the $51 on Neds for him to score first. The $8 for him to score anytime isn’t as good but we think it’s a decent play with Amone and Murdoch-Masila beginning to form a combination on the Dragons’ left.
Jamal Fogarty is priced at $34 or less by most bookies and our model to score first. He’s available at $41 to score the first try on Neds. He’s priced at $5.30 or less to score anytime by most bookies and our model. It’s clear to see why we like the $6.50 for him to score anytime. He doesn’t break the line often but we can see him lurking around the big boys in the pack for an offload to sneak over.
Update Sun 16/4 – Murdoch-Masila was ruled out with Bird moving to the edge. On our free Discord, we mentioned Bird as a value play immediately after at $14 to score any of the first three tries and $5.60 to score anytime!
Eels v Bulldogs
Sun 16/4, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jacob Preston ATS @ $5.75 on Sportsbet
Corey Wadell FTS & FTS2H @ $101 & ATS @ $12 on Neds
Note: Kikau has been ruled out due to a torn pec – keep an eye out for late mail on who is confirmed to take over his spot. Faitala-Mariner or Okunbor could get the role but their price isn’t great anymore. Waddell is well priced and we’ve chosen FTS 2nd half, so even if he is playing as a bench middle it’s still decent value. Or join our free Discord where we have a community full of people which will do the hard work for you!
Update Fri 14/4 – Jacob Preston is now $4 to score anytime. Shows how good the $5.75 was earlier in the week! Waddell’s still available at the same price.
There are three likely options to take on Kikau’s edge role for the Bulldogs. Okunbor, Faitala-Mariner and Waddell. Okunbor & Faitala-Mariner weren’t playing last weekend. Waddell played 80 minutes and played on the right edge with Preston playing on the left. We’re thinking Waddell’s the most likely option to play on the edge. And he’s also the best odds! $101 to score the first try, the first try in the second half & $12 to score anytime.
Our model had Preston and Kikau priced around $30-35 to score the first try. Most bookies had them at lower prices. Conservatively, let’s say Waddell should be around $40-50 to score the first try. You’re getting twice the price. With some risk that he doesn’t actually get the edge role. We think it’s a risk worth taking!
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Dolphins v Rabbitohs
Thu 13/4, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Lachlan Ilias Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $5.10 on Sportsbet
Jed Cartwright First Try Scorer 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $67 on Neds
Davvy Moale FTS2H @ $67 on Neds
Dolphins middle forwards $81-101 for FTS or FTS2H (TBC on game day)
Update Thu 13/4 – Lachlan Ilias is now into $5 on Sportsbet, which we still think is good value. Cartwright & Moale are both $67 and the Dolphins middles are still a good price. We’ll update our Discord an hour before the game to lock in the value plays after final teams are locked in.
Lachlan Ilias is $4.10 on less on most bookies to score a try. Our model and his career strike rate would have him around $4.35-4.70. Considering they’re strong favourites against the Dolphins, we think the $5 on offer to score a try anytime is a great price.
Davvy Moale hasn’t scored a try at NRL level but he’s scored two tries in 4 games for the Cook Islands, all in the last year. Jed Cartwright could get some time on the edge and should at least be on the field early in the 2nd half. They’re both paying $67 which we think is a good price. Cartwright is more than double the price compared to other bookies and Moale is $51 or less on most bookies as well.
Update after final teams – Mark Nicholls at $101 to score the first try in the 2nd half on Neds is a great price.
Sharks v Roosters
Fri 14/4, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Cam McInnes Team First Try Scorer & Last Try Scorer @ $41 (two bets) & ATS @ $15 on Sportsbet
Braden Uele ATS @ $13 on Sportsbet
Nicho Hynes 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on TAB
Oregon Kaufusi FTS2H @ $101 & LTS Team @ $67 on TAB
Royce Hunt/Braden Uele FTS @ $81 (WAIT for final team lists on this one)
Note: McInnes was $126 to score the first try + $21 to score a try on Tuesday night. We mentioned this on our Discord – join here for free if you want to be alerted to these value plays immediately!
Update Thu 13/4 – McInnes, Uele & Hynes are pretty much the same price. Kaufusi is still $101 for fts 2nd half but $51 for last team try on TAB.
Cam McInnes will be playing a larger role for the Sharks with Finucane and Rudolf out. He was $126 and $21 for fts & ats on Tuesday evening. We still think he’s good value at $15 to score anytime and $41-46 to score the first and last try for his team (2 separate bets on Sportsbet).
Braden Uele is similar to Stefano Utoikamanu – he’ll get a run in our value plays most weeks! If you converted his try scoring strike rate to odds, it’d be $6.50. Most bookies have him at $10 or less. We’re getting $13 on Sportsbet, in a relatively even game where he should get more minutes than usual.
Nicho Hynes is $30 or less on most sites to score the first try. The $34 on TAB looks like decent value. But the $14 for him to score any of the first three tries (one bet, on TAB) seems like excellent value. It’s similar to seeing $42 for the first try scorer market. Hynes will know he needs to step up as the Sharks are missing two of their leaders.
Oregon Kaufusi should be on early in the second half so we like the $101 on TAB for FTS2H. The $51 for LTS Team is OK value, the $67 was a good price in case he gets a second stint with two of their main middles missing.
Sea Eagles v Storm
Fri 14/4, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Kelma Tuilagi FTS & FTS2H @ $51 & ATS @ $8.25 on Neds
Update Thu 13/4 – In a game where 10 players have good ‘model value’, we’ve only gone with one player as a value play for now. Hopefully this discipline for hunting a good price pays off soon! Kelma Tuilagi is on the left edge for the Sea Eagles, alongside Cooper Johns. They’re likely to see less ball than the right edge with DCE & Olakaku’atu, however, Tuilagi’s in good form and we love the price on offer here. $51 to score the first try of the game or in the 2nd half + $8.25 to score anytime is clearly value compared to most bookies & our model’s price for him.
Warriors v Cowboys
Sat 15/4, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Riley Price FTS2H @ $67 & LTS @ $51 on Neds (Void – he’s not in the final 17)
Update Fri 14/4 – Riley Price is paying $67 to score the first try in the 2nd half on Neds. He’s also paying $51 on Neds & Bet365 to score the last try. The reason why we think this is a high value play is the Cowboys are missing Leilua, Luki and Neame. Hess and Nanai are the last two second row options for them. Price should get 20-30 minutes on an edge at some point in the second half. So his price would likely be around $25-40. So the $51-67 we’re getting for these markets is clearly good value.
Whoever starts on the right edge for the Warriors will definitely be a good option for try scorer markets. Sironen has been named there but he was benched for Curran last weekend an hour before the game. Sironen is $41 on Neds which would be an excellent play if he does indeed start.
Update Sat 15/4 – Curran will be starting on the right edge with Sironen benched. There were multiple changes an hour before kick-off. These prices only last for a couple of minutes – we found Curran at $12 for 1st, 2nd & 3rd try scorer on TAB. We also suggested getting on whoever the opposing winger was to Montoya in head to head try markets. This is because Montoya was shifted to the centres, so Taulagi’s odds should be far shorter than the $3.20-3.50 he was on most sites. If you don’t want to miss out on these plays – join our free Discord!
Knights v Panthers
Sat 15/4, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Dane Gagai 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on TAB
Daniel Saifiti FTS @ $91 on Sportsbet
Update Fri 14/4 – Daniel Saifiti & Dane Gagai are still available at the price quoted above.
The Panthers are deservedly strong favourites in this game. A few picks that almost made it to the value plays were Sorenson at $31 & Frizell at $51 for FTS and Marzhew + Dom Young at $2.60 ATS. With Liam Martin on the extended bench, we’ve stayed away from Sorenson in case he’s benched. Frizell’s already scored two tries this season, including one last weekend when he was in our punter’s preview!
Daniel Saifiti scores a try in every 11 games he plays. He’s also only scored the first try once in his career. Up against a strong Panthers team and priced around $81-91 on most bookies, he doesn’t seem a clear value play. But he’s averaging almost 140 run metres in 55 minutes this season and we like the price for him to get over first.
Dane Gagai is averaging over 180 run metres & 6.4 tackle breaks a game in 2023. He’s priced at $32 or below by our model and most other bookies. So we love the $14 on offer for him to score any of the first 3 tries on TAB.
Titans v Broncos
Sat 15/4, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tino Fa’asuamaleuai ATS @ $9 on Sportsbet & 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $19 on TAB
Tanah Boyd 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $19 on TAB & ATS @ $7.25 on Sportsbet
Update Fri 14/4 – Boyd and Tino are still the same price.
Tino Fa’asumaleuai and Tanah Boyd are the same price for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market on TAB. We love the $19 on offer for different reasons. The Titans take on a Broncos side coming off their first loss for the season. The Broncos have more class than the Titans all over the park. But Tino will know he’ll need to take Payne Haas and the Broncos pack on if the Titans are any chance here. Tino scores a try ever 5.4 games he plays – one of the best strike rates for middle forwards in the NRL. Getting $9 for him to score anytime and a number similar to seeing $57 for first try scorer is a great price in our opinion.
Boyd was a value play for us last weekend and got held up over the line. The $7.50 for him to score anytime on Sportsbet is actually lower than what our model and his career strike rate suggests he should be. We’re backing the ‘eye test’ here and thinking Boyd will be up for a big game at home against the Broncos. The $19 for him to score any of the first three tries seems clear value – he’s in the $40s for the first try scorer market across most bookies, our model and his strike rate.
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