Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 2 of the 2024 NRL season. We hit Ben Hunt at 10s and Isaiya Katoa at 15s both to score the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd try in Round 5!
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Bulldogs v Knights
Sun 21/4, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Leo Thompson FTS @ $67 on Neds
Dylan Lucas FTS & LTS @ $34 on Dabble
Jack Hetherington FTS2H @ $81 on Neds
Viliame Kikau 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $9.5 on Neds
Dylan Lucas ATS @ $6 on Dabble
Game Day Pick – Daniel Saifiti FTS2H @ $51 on Pointsbet
Game Day Update Sun 21/4 – Luckily, all the prices for our picks above (Thompson, Lucas, Hetherington and Kikau) are all available! Kikau and Lucas especially are crazy prices and they rarely last till game day so we’re excited to see how they go. Kikau destroyed the Storm last week and is currently leading the Dally M!
We’ve added Daniel Saifiti at $51 to score first in the 2nd half. He’s done this once every 28 NRL games and he hasn’t even been coming off the bench for a decent % of his games, we love this play against the Dogs who have a weak pack and conceded the most tries to middle forwards in 2023.
Wicky Preview Wed 17/4 – Another tricky form line. The Knights couldn’t get the job done against a Roosters outfit missing Tedesco and Walker. Although, Kalyn Ponga was playing with a badly hurt hip pointer for parts of the game. They come up against the Bulldogs who were leading against the Storm in Melbourne with only a few minutes to go!
The Dogs get Morrin back and could also be getting Max King and Liam Knight back in their pack (in the reserves). The Knights are going in with the same side. The line is at +1.5 with the Dogs. If you trust that the Dogs left edge can keep their form going (Kikau is leading the Dally M, Addo-Carr scored a hat-trick last week) then they could really stamp their mark on this season with a win against Ponga’s Knights. Although – if they have another injury early in the game and Ponga is back to full-strength, the Knights could put a cricket score on them. As they did in late 2023, beating the Dogs 66-0.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Sharks v Cowboys
Sun 21/4, 4.05 pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $11 on Neds
Reece Robson 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $16 on Neds
Game Day Picks:
Griffin Neame FTS2H @ $51 on Pointsbet
Braden Uele FTS2H @ $41 (on most bookies)
Game Day Update Sun 21/4 – We’ve added Neame and Uele as picks to score the first try in the 2nd half. If you went off by how often they’ve done this in their career, their odds would be $16 and $25. They both go hunting for the try line. Uele’s playing his first game for 2024 – his 100th game and against the club he started his career at!
Finefeuiaki is still the same price to score any of the first three tries on Neds but Robson is down to $15 on Neds or Sportsbet – which we still really like!
Wicky Preview Wed 17/4 – These sides have had some great matchups over the years and the -2.5 to the Sharks at home indicates the bookies are struggling to separate the sides here too! Uele returns for the Sharks and Valemei comes in for Taulagi (injured, 2-3 weeks) for the Cowboys. The Cowboys were disappointing, losing to a Parra side missing Mitch Moses last week. And the Sharks struggled to put away a Rabbits side missing Trell and Cook pre-game and a further 3-4 players during the game!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Roosters v Storm
Thu 18/4, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Daniel Tupou Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $2.50 on Bet365
Jahrome Hughes Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $4.60 on Neds
Game Day Pick – Angus Crichton FTS & LTS @ $31 on Dabble
Wicky Game Day Preview – This is going to be an epic but honestly, there isn’t a lot of value out there. We’ve added Crichton for FTS and LTS (separate plays @ $31) – he’s the left edge back rower. That’s where Keary will have a lot of ball (Sam Walker still out) + Kikau dominated from there against the Storm last week!
Tupou is the left winger – where Addo-Carr scored a hat-trick last weekend. And again, on Keary’s side – the one that should see more ball. Still $2.50 on Bet365, our model has him at $2.04 and most bookies have him at $2.30 or less. Hughes is still $4.60 on Neds – his career strike rate would have him under $3 and most bookies and our model have him at $4 or less.
Wicky Preview Wed 17/4 – The Roosters get Tedesco back but Sam Walker has apparently only been named as the Roosters don’t have enough fit players to name! The Storm lose Tui Kamikamica but get big ‘NAS’ back for his first NRL game in 2024! The left edge for the Roosters has been humming – it’s like we’ve gone back 5 years with Keary, Crichton, Jennings and Tupou playing together! The Storm will be disappointed with their effort, narrowly scraping a win against a depleted Bulldogs outfit at home. Their spine is playing their third game in a row together, they’ll be hoping to put a more complete performance together and get a win away from home.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Dragons v Warriors
Fri 19/4, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Mitchell Barnett FTS & LTS @ $51 on Dabble
Game Day Pick – Raymond Faitala-Mariner FTS & LTS @ $41 on Dabble + Pointsbet
Wicky Game Day Update Fri 19/4 – We’ve added RFM at $41 to score the first or last try (2 separate bets). He played on the right side with Ben Hunt last week, we love that as that’s where the Dragons generally score more tries. Also up against TMM on the Wahs’ left edge who hasn’t played much 1st Grade in recent times.
Mitchell Barnett plays a milestone game and is still $51 for FTS and LTS on Pointsbet. He’ll play big minutes as the Warriors pack is missing a few middle forwards. Egan’s a crafty hooker, similar to Marshall-King for the Dolphins, so we love middle forwards to crash over!
Wicky Preview Wed 17/4 – The Dragons had an impressive win against an understrength Tigers last week. The Warriors were down 16-0 and escaped with a draw after 90 minutes! Both sides have been inconsistent – the Warriors losing another middle forward (Tevaga) and the fact that this game is in Wollongong makes us think the Dragons could keep this one closer than the 6.5 line suggests! The Dragons are missing Jack Bird, so Lomax goes back to centre.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Eels v Dolphins
Fri 19/4, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Mark Nicholls FTS & LTS @ $51 (widely available)
Jesse Bromwich FTS @ $81 on Neds + on Topsport
Jarrod Wallace FTS2H @ $51 on TAB
Euan Aitken ATS @ $6.75 on Sportsbet
Game Day Pick – Josh Kerr FTS2H @ $51 on Pointsbet & Bet Right
Wicky Game Day Update Fri 19/4 – We’ve added Josh Kerr alongside our Wallace pick – both at $51 for FTS 2nd half. They’re named on the bench so they should be on early in the 2nd half. Wallace scored last week but cruelly, he scored the first try of the game! Kerr’s already scored twice this season. They’re both $51 on Pointsbet for this market.
Aitken is now into $6.50 to score anytime on Sportsbet, still a great price. Nicholls is still $51 for FTS and LTS on Sportsbet. And Jesse Bromwich is still $81 on Neds to score first. Parramatta are favourites for this game but we think the Dolphins are even more likely to score tries through the middle with Hammer, their key strike weapon, missing!
Wicky Preview Wed 17/4 – The Eels beat the Cowboys and the Dolphins were outclassed by the Broncos. More importantly, the Dolphins lost Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow which is tough to cop after they’ve already lost Gilbert (season) + Flegler and Farnworth for a few weeks. Although this game is in Darwin (not Parra) and Mitch Moses is still missing – we like the Eels to cover the 8.5 point line against a depleted Dolphins who are arguably missing their four best players.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Panthers v West Tigers
Sat 20/4, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Fonua Pole FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365, TAB & on Dabble
Mitch Kenny 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Neds
John Bateman 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $17 on Neds
Aidan Sezer 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $19 on Neds
Game Day Pick – Luke Garner LTS @ $34 on Dabble
Wicky Game Day Update – We’ve added Garner at $34 for LTS, he should come on to play out the game on the edge for Sorenson or Martin who will either get a rest or go to the middle forward rotation. Kenny, Sezer and Bateman are still the same price for the 1/2/3rd try market, we still love all those prices.
Utoikamanu and Pole are $67 for FTS on Pointsbet. We saw how good Api is at putting middle forwards last week when he put Utoikamanu over for the 2nd try. Hopefully he does it for the first try today! Unfortunately both of these guys are available at $51 at best for LTS. We still like Utoikamanu at this price, given he’s already done this 3 times in his 59 NRL games.
Wicky Preview Wed 17/4 – The Panthers are still missing Nathan Cleary, however, they do get Scott Sorenson back. The Tigers get Galvin, Bateman and the Fainu brothers back. We think the Tigers will be rejuvenated with Galvin back and could cover the 13.5 point start against a Panthers side who we think will be happy to just get the 2 points with Nathan Cleary hoping to return next week. Keep an eye out for Olam at left centre with Galvin back!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
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Titans v Manly
Sat 20/4, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Taniela Paseka FTS & LTS @ $51 on Neds & on Dabble
Corey Waddell 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $10 on Neds
Haumole Olakau’atu ATS @ $3.10 on Bet365
Game Day Pick – Jaimin Jolliffe FTS @ $67 on Pointsbet
Wicky Game Day Update – We’ve added Jaimin Jolliffe to score first at $67 on Pointsbet. He’s been cruel to us this season – scoring first when he was low odds and then scoring third last week when he was a good price for FTS! He’s picked up the load Tino has left and has scored in a couple of different ways already this season.
Waddell has looked great in limited minutes so far in 2024 for Manly and now gets the starting spot with ‘Burbo’ out with a hammy for around a month. He’s now $10.50 on Neds for 1/2/3rd try. Olakau’atu has gone out to $3.60 on 365 – ridiculous value. He’s between $2.50-2.80 according to our model, his career strike rate and every other bookie. Paseka is still $51 for FTS and LTS on Dabble.
Wicky Preview Wed 17/4 – The Titans put it all on the line against the Raiders last week and heartbreakingly, lost the game in the 90th minute. Now they go into this game missing Jayden Campbell and a shorter turnaround than Manly – we think this one could get ugly.
Manly are missing Aloia, Sipley and Ben Trbojevic but they do get Garrick and Saab back (right side centre and winger) as well as Matt Lodge and Nathan Brown in their pack. It just looks like the type of game that Tom Turbo could really click, and beat up on a tired and depleted Titans outfit.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Join Wicky’s NRL Fantasy League!
Broncos v Raiders
Sat 20/4, 7.35 pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Josh Papalii FTS @ $67 on Neds
Joseph Tapine FTS @ $67 on Neds
Ethan Strange FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Ezra Mam ATS @ $3.70 on Bet365
Game Day Picks:
Josh Papalii LTS @ $67 on Neds
Ezra Mam FTS & LTS @ $21 on Bet365
Wicky Game Day Update – Josh Papalii is $67 for LTS on Neds too so we’ve added that as a game day pick. We love all things Josh Papa – especially given the Raiders’ form and the Broncos are still missing Haas (and Reynolds). We’ve also added Mam at $21 for FTS and LTS – he’s around $15s on most bookies for these markets, clearly good price. The other picks above are all the same price and still a great price.
Wicky Preview Wed 17/4 -Now this should be an interesting game. No side has won more games than the Raiders after 6 rounds! The Broncos are still missing Haas and Reynolds. The Broncos beat up on a depleted Dolphins outfit last week, but it did include a couple of freakish length of the field tries. The Raiders took all 90 minutes to get the 2 points against a depleted Titans outfit.
Hosking misses out for the Raiders and could be gone for the season. Rapana is still missing, so Stewart plays his 2nd game at fullback. We think the +7.5 with the Raiders could be a play for this game – their pack is humming along, Strange looks great at five-eighth and Fogarty’s kicking game is elite. The Broncos are missing too many troops to win this one convincingly.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
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