Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 5 of the 2024 NRL season. We hit Billy Walters at 41s on Good Friday for our first juicy FTS of the season in Round 4!
Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.
Cowboys v Titans
Sun 7/4, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jaimin Jolliffe FTS & LTS @ $67 on Neds, TAB, Dabble + other bookies
Reuben Cotter FTS @ $41 on Betr
Erin Clark FTS @ $67 on Topsport & Pointsbet
Chris Randall FTS @ $61 on Pointsbet
Sam Verrills LTS @ $67 on Neds
Tanah Boyd 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $21 on Neds
David Fifita ATS @ $4.50 on Pointsbet (named on the bench, love this price even if he plays 60 mins again!)
Wicky Preview Sun 7/4 – No extra game day picks as we have quite a few picks already for this one! We’ve hit a $11 and $21 same gamer on our Discord this weekend – make sure you join the free server to get onto our fun multis as well!
For First Try Scorer (FTS) – Jolliffe is $67 on Neds, Dabble, Pointsbet and Unibet. Cotter is $41 on Betr. Randall is $61 on Pointsbet.
For Last Try Scorer (LTS) – Jolliffe is $67 on Dabble and Unibet. Verrills is $67 on Neds and Unibet.
Tanah Boyd is $21 on Neds for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer. David Fifita is $4.50 for ATS on Pointsbet and $4.40 on Bet Right.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Raiders v Eels
Sun 7/4, 6.15 pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Shaun Lane 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Neds
Raegan Campbell-Gillard FTS @ $67 on Pointsbet
Game Day Pick – Josh Papalii FTS @ $44 on Topsport + LTS @ $41 (on most bookies incl Sportsbet + 365)
Wicky Preview Sun 7/4 – We’ve added Josh Papa at $44 for FTS (Topsport) and LTS @ $41. He’s $41 on most bookies for both FTS and LTS. Funnily enough – his FTS and LTS historical stats aren’t amazing. But he’s in the elite group of best middle forwards for try scoring in the NRL, we’ll always be happy to back in big Papa! RCG is still $67 for FTS on Pointsbet. Shaun Lane is now $11 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd on Neds. It’s always best to get on our picks as soon as the article is released but this price is still good enough to get on.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Storm v Broncos
Thu 4/4, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Billy Walters FTS @ $41 on Topsport & on Bet Right + LTS @ $41 on Pointsbet
Adam Reynolds FTS & LTS @ $41 on Neds
Jaiyden Hunt FTS @ $41 on Bet Right, on Dabble & Sportsbet + LTS @ $41 on Sportsbet & on Dabble
Game Day Pick – Adam Reynolds 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on Neds
Wicky Update Thu 4/4 – This is potentially the only game the whole weekend that won’t be rain affected! So hopefully there are a ton of tries. The value for Adam Reynolds is clear here. He’s $34 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 and a few other bookies and we’ve added the $15 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15. We still think the $34s is OK for FTS/LTS but the $15 for 1/2/3 is just insane. Walters crashed over first at $41s for us last weekend and we love that he’s still available at $41 for LTS on Pointsbet. He’s widely available at $34 for FTS which we still think is a decent price. Jaiyden Hunt is $41 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet. He’s the left edge backrower that’s replaced Piakura. He’s not the most dynamic ball runner but we do like the price for him.
Wicky Update Wed 3/4 – We hit Billy Walters FTS @ $41 from last week’s article and we’re going back to the well! Our favourite play here is Reynolds at the same price!
Our odds comparison tool is live.
Our late mail article including injury news + which players are on the left/right for every side is live also.
We have a fun system multi including unders for a few games this round with rain expected for 6/8 games. It’s on our free Discord server with almost 4k members!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Bulldogs v Roosters
Fri 5/4, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Lindsay Collins FTS @ $51 on Bet Right, TAB & on Dabble. LTS @ $51 on TAB
Kurt Mann FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet
Viliame Kikau 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12 on Neds
Game Day Pick – Reed Mahoney FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Wicky Update Fri 5/4 – First thing. It has been absolutely bucketing down all day. We always tell people to stay away from multis with multiple try scorers – but today is definitely not the day for this!
We added Reed Mahoney at $51 for FTS & LTS. In this weather – we can see him going from dummy half. The Dogs attack is limited at the best of times, this seems perfectly set up for a hooker to crash over.
Collins is only $51 for LTS and that’s only on Dabble. The Dogs have a weak pack which has just gotten weaker this week – we actually think the $41s he’s widely available for, for FTS and LTS is still OK.
Viliame Kikau is now $12.50 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on Neds. Insane odds for Kikau who’s looked good the last couple of weeks. His career strike rate just for FTS is $15. Yes he’s at the Dogs now and he’s up against the stronger Roosters outfit but $12.50 is a great price.
Kurt Mann is still $61 for FTS 2nd half! He loves running the ball and in a game like this – it is perfectly setup for him to crash over. He’s played in a bunch of different positions throughout his career but he scores a try one in every 5 games. He’ll be on early in the 2nd half (named on the bench) – we’d take this bet at $51 or higher.
Knights v Dragons
Fri 5/4, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jacob Liddle 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $17 on Neds
Jacob Liddle FTS @ $41 on Neds, TAB, on Dabble + Pointsbet
Ben Hunt 1st, 2nd, 3rd try @ $10 on Neds
Game Day Pick – Francis Molo FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Wicky Update Fri 5/4 – We’ve added Francis Molo at $67 for FTS + LTS. Torrential rain in Newcastle as well – same reasoning, we love a big forward to crash over. Liddle’s playing his 100th game and he loves going from dummy half – he’s still widely available at $41 for FTS. He’s also still $17 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try. Insane price.
Ben Hunt is still $10 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on Neds. We love this for Hunt who scored the first try in games one in every 20 games. We can see him stepping up in the wet and a dummy and go near the line to crash over!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Rabbitohs v Warriors
Sat 6/4, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Damian Cook FTS @ $41 on Neds + 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on Neds
Mitchell Barnett FTS @ $61 on Pointsbet (playing 2nd row now – amazing value for those of us who got 61s early in the week)
Wayde Egan 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $13 on TAB
Marata Niukore 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Neds (Void – Ruled out)
Game Day Pick – Bunty Afoa FTS @ $65 on Topsport
Wicky Game Day Update – there have been quite a few changes for this game, always refer to our late mail article. It also includes whether plays play on the left or right side for every game!
We’ve added Bunty Afoa FTS @ $65 on Topsport as our game day pick. It won’t be as wet as it was expected to be but it’ll still be a heavy track, we’re seeing a pass from Egan for Afoa to crash over now that he’s named to start (Barnett to edge, Niukore OUT). Barnett is clearly not $61 anymore as he’s moved to the edge. Those of us who got $61 early in the week – this is now an amazing price. He’s still $41 on Neds and Unibet, a great price for an edge backrower next to Shaun Johnson!
Damian Cook is still $41 for FTS and $15 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on Neds. Again – a great price for Cook in what should be a game played through the middle. The other hooker – is $11 on Neds for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try now. We still like that price for Egan.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
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Manly v Panthers
Sat 6/4, 5:30 pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Daly Cherry-Evans FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
James Fisher-Harris LTS @ $61 on Sportsbet
Corey Waddell LTS @ $51 on Bet365 & Dabble
Mitchell Kenny 1st, 2nd or 3rd @ $17 on Neds
Game Day Pick – Taniela Paseka FTS @ $67 on Betr, Pointsbet & Bet Right
Wicky Game Day Update – We’ve added Paseka at $67 for FTS. He’s a strong ball runner and even though he doesn’t have the best try scoring stats, we can see him barging over on a heavy track. Somehow Corey Waddell at $51 for LTS on Dabble and Bet365 has survived till now. He’s been coming on in the 2nd half to play the game out on the edge for Ben Trbojevic. He scored an excellent try from there a couple of weeks ago. $51 is a ridiculous price, should be closer to $34 or $41 max. DCE is still $34 for FTS & LTS. He scores last one in every 23 games – we love the $34s!
Fisher-Harris LTS @ $61 was based off SB hanging him out at that price – he’s $51s now which we think is OK. Mitch Kenny is still $17 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on Neds. Great value.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Dolphins v Wests Tigers
Sat 6/4, 7.35 pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Isaiya Katoa 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $15 on Neds (This won!)
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365 + most other bookies
Jayden Sullivan 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $14 on Neds
Kodi Nikorima 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $14 on Neds
Game Day Picks – Josh Kerr + Mark Nicholls FTS2H @ $41 on Betr, Pointsbet + Bet Right
Wicky Game Day Update – We’ve added Kerr and Nicholls FTS2H @ $41 as game day picks. They’ve scored 3 tries between them in 3 games and been VERY close to a couple of others! The Tigers have been impressive the last two games but playing at Suncorp is perfect for these two. The rain around likely means the game will be played through the middle more. Utoikamanu has scored the first try twice and last try twice in 36 games when he’s started in the NRL. Freakish stats. We love him at $41 and above for FTS & LTS – which he still is on most bookies including $51 for FTS on Betr!
The Katoa and Sullivan prices for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try are still there on Neds. Incredible value for two halves who do have a decent running game.
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Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
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