Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 6 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round. We had a record weekend in Round 5. We had the most people EVER on our site. Our Tiktok & Discord followers went from 1-400 to 1300+ on both platforms. And we tipped a 151/1 first try scorer!
Everything on our site is free – whether you want to join our Discord community or access any of our data tools you can do it all for free here. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, we’ve written an article to help you out. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!
Wests Tigers v Eels
Mon 10/4, 4.00pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Stefano Utoikamanu ATS @ $15 on Sportsbet
Luke Brooks 1st, 2nd or 3rd TS @ $ 26 + FTS & LTS Team @ $23 on TAB
Adam Doueihi 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $23 + FTS & LTS Team @ $21 on TAB
Shawn Blore @ $ 81 FTS2H on Neds
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Update Sat 8/4 – Utoikamanu and Blore are the same price. Doueihi & Brooks are $23 and $21 for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try market on TAB now which we still like. They are $17 and $21 for the Team FTS & LTS markets (2 separate bets) markets on TAB which is okay value.
Stefano Utoikamanu has been in our value plays every week in 2023. He’s scored one try at $10.50 for us. His career strike rate converted to betting odds would have him at $5.43 and we’re getting $15 for him on Sportsbet. The Eels are a better team and their pack looks more impressive this week, but we still love Utoikamanu at this price.
Shawn Blore is paying $11 to score a try anytime and $81 to score the first try in the 2nd half on Neds. This is an excellent price when you consider he’ll likely come on to the right edge with Bateman shifting to the middle. Yes the Tigers are outsiders, but his price should be around $41-51 where most bookies have him. The $81 is an excellent value play. We haven’t suggested the $11 as a value play just incase he doesn’t get many minutes. But it is a good value play if you think he’ll get 50+ minutes on the edge.
Doueihi & Brooks have been a part of all the dramas at the Tigers this season, being 0-5. But out model and most other bookies have them both under $45 to score the first try. The 20+ we were getting for them to score any of the first three tries in the week were similar to a FTS price of over $60. We still like them at the current price for this market. We like FTS Team & LTS Team markets in case a team only scores one try – if that happens to be Doueihi or Brooks, you win both bets!
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Storm v Roosters
Thu 6/4, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Joey Manu Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $3.90 on Bet365
Sam Walker ATS @ $5.30 on Sportsbet
Eliesa Katoa First Try Scorer (FTS) & Last Try Scorer (LTS) @ $34 on Bet365
Tui Kamikamica 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $31 & FTS Team & LTS Team @ $41 on TAB
Victor Radley 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $26 & FTS Team & LTS Team @ $31 on TAB
Thu 6/4 Update – Radley is still $31 to score the Roosters’ first and last team try (two separate bets) on TAB. The 1st, 2nd or 3rd try is now done to $21. If you missed the $26, the better way to get on is a small stake on FTS, 2nd try scorer & last try scorer (three separate bets). To keep things simple, we’ll include the initial bets in our bets tracker but make suggestions on how you can still get on later in the week in the updates. Tui Kamikamica is still the same odds on TAB. Eli Katoa & Joey Manu are still the same price on Bet365. So is Sam Walker on Sportsbet.
Joey Manu will be filling in at fullback for James Tedesco (Concussion). He’s had some ridiculous stats when deputising for Tedesco at fullback before. With how involved he is, the $3.90 for him to score anytime on Bet365 seems like great value. Our model has him priced at $3.15 and most other bookies have him priced below that.
If you converted Sam Walker’s career strike rate at scoring at least one try in a game to betting odds, it’d be $3.12. That’s what “ATS Historical” shows in our odds comparison tool. However, he is playing the Storm. Most bookies have him at $4.50 or under, so we love the $5.30 on Sportsbet for anytime try scorer.
Eli Katoa has his partner in crime back on the Storm’s right edge, Jahrome Hughes. He had three linebreaks in a game earlier this season when Hughes was in the side. Up against Luke Keary and Egan butcher, we’re backing Katoa to get over first or last (two separate bets) at $34 on Bet365. Our model and most bookies have him at $26 or less.
If you converted how often Victor Radley has scored the first try of the game in his career to odds, it’d be $34. He’s playing the Storm and of course being a middle forward, the $40-50 range most bookies have him at makes sense. The best way to get on Radley is the $31 for him to just score the Roosters’ first or last try (two separate bets).
Tui Kamikamica is more of an “eye test” or “gut feel” pick. He’s $31 to score any of the first three tries. It’s similar to seeing $93 for him to score the first try. There is a risk he won’t be on when the 3rd try is scored, but we love the number here. The $41 for him to score just the Storm’s first or last try (two separate bets) on TAB is also excellent value.
Bulldogs v Rabbitohs
Fri 7/4, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tevita Tatola FTS @ $81 & $13 ATS on Sportsbet
Cam Murray 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $19 on TAB (This won – Murray scored the 2nd try!)
Damien Cook 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $16 on TAB
Jed Cartwright FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $67 on Neds
Matt Burton 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $14 on TAB
Max King & Ryan Sutton 1st 2nd or 3rd ts @ $67 on TAB
Update Fri 7/4 – All the prices above are still available except for Max King. We wouldn’t recommend playing Max King at $41 to score one of the first three tries, which is his current price.
The Bulldogs have most of their forward pack missing. They’re coming off a four day turnaround. And they could still have Jacob Preston and Max King ruled out on game day due to injuries. So generally, we love forwards from Souths to score, and we think we’ve found some good prices for them.
Tevita Tatola at $81 to score first & $13 to score anytime is clear value. Our model has him at $44 and most bookies have him at $51 or less to score the first try. And to score anytime, most bookies have him at $ 8 or less. So we’re getting a good price and a favourable matchup against a weakened Dogs pack.
Continuing on this path, Murray and Cook are at a great price to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try (one bet) on TAB. We don’t love the $41 for them to score first, but getting a similar price to $48 for Cook and $57 for Murray for first try scorer is much better – so we’ve played the 1st, 2nd or 3rd market on TAB.
Jed Cartwright is definitely a high risk, high reward play here. If he comes on around half time, then the $67 is a good price against a weak Dogs pack. If he happens to play edge, with Host being subbed out or Koloamatangi playing some time in the middle, then this is an excellent price. However, he could get 20-30 minutes at the end of the game, in which case he may not be on the field when the first try of the 2nd half is scored. We still like it for a small stake.
Now if you think the Dogs can continue their momentum from their thrilling win against the Cowboys only five days ago, then we’ve got a couple of interesting value plays. Matt Burton to score any of the first three tries at $14 (1st, 2nd or 3rd – one bet on TAB). Similar to seeing a $42 price for first try scorer – this is clear value. He’s priced at $26 or less by most bookies and our model has him priced at $30.
Max King and Ryan Sutton to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try of the game at $67 was purely a play on the number. Worth a small stake on Ryan Sutton as he’s still at the same price.
Cowboys v Dolphins
Fri 7/4, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Kenny Bromwich 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $26 on TAB
Jeremy Marshall-King 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $26 & ATS @ $8.50 on TAB
Tom Gilbert 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $34 & LTS Team @ $34 on TAB
Coen Hess 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $12 on TAB
Jarrod Wallace FTS2H @ $101 on Neds
Jesse Bromwich FTS Team & LTS Team @ $67 on TAB (Void – ruled out)
Update Fri 7/4 – All the prices for the value plays above are still available. Jesse Bromwich has been ruled out so look out for final team lists, an hour before kick off.
Coen Hess was a value play at around the same price for the same market last weekend. He was awarded the third try of the game, only for it to be cruelly taken off. He’s playing the Nanai role on the right – aerial kicks, bombs and short balls being fed to him. He may not play the whole game there with Riley Price on the bench so we love the $12 for him to score any of the first three tries (one bet) on TAB.
Aside from Hess, all the value is in the Dolphins pack. And with the Cowboys missing McLean, Nanai, Luki and some depth forwards, we don’t mind it this way. Marshall-King and Kenny Bromwich are clear way higher priced than they should be. They are $51 or less to score the first try across most bookies. Their model and historical strike rate would suggest their odds should be around the $50 mark also. So the $26 for them to score any of the first three tries is clear value. Bromwich hasn’t looked as threatening this year but we’re backing Marshall-King to be a threat the whole game, so we like the $8.50 on offer for him to score anytime also.
Tom Gilbert has already scored a try from the middle of the field this season. We had mentioned him as a value play to score the last try at $81, however, Tabuai-Fidow scored with only three minutes to go to kill the bet! We love the $34 on offer for him to score any of the first three tries (1st, 2nd or 3rd on TAB). Most bookies have him at $61 or less for the first try scorer market. His historical strike rate, converted to odds, would be $18. This includes a lot of games on the edge at the Cowboys – but he does love scoring early in games!
Jarrod Wallace and Mark Nicholls are both $101 to score the first try in the 2nd half. They are currently both on the bench, and if it remains that why at final teams – Mark Nicholls is also officially a value play at that price. However, there’s a chance one of them start with Jesse Bromwich out. The Cowboys have Taunoa-Brown with a hooker, a back and a rookie edge back rower on the bench. We love a Dolphins bench middle to get over in this one.
Panthers v Sea Eagles
Sat 8/4, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Dylan Edwards ATS @ $3.30 on Neds
Haumole Olakau’atu ATS @ $4.20 on Neds
Scott Sorenson FTS @ $41 on Neds & 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $16 on TAB
Moses Leota 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $81 on TAB
Kelma Tuilagi FTS & FTS2H @ $67 on Neds
Spencer Leniu FTS2H @ $101 on TAB
J0sh Schuster 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $26 + FTS & LTS Team @ $26 on TAB (Void – ruled out)
Update Sat 7/4 – The only changes to prices from the value plays above are that Schuster has been ruled out and Leniu has now been crunched in to $51 on TAB (at $61 on Pointsbet). He’s already scored a few tries in his NRL career and the Panthers are strong favourites – it shows how good the $101 was!
Dylan Edwards and Haumole Olakau’atu are both great value plays to score anytime in this one. Edwards is priced at $2.75 by our model. This considers his form, try scoring rate and the line and total for the game. He’s at $2.90 or less at other bookies. Olakau’atu at $4.20 is noticeably higher than what the price would be if we went by his career strike rate ($2.65). Of course, he’s playing the Panthers. Our model knows this and has priced him at $3.80. No other bookie has him higher than this price.
Moses Leota will have to step up with Fisher-Harris missing for the Panthers. He gets ‘three green lights’ on our odds comparison tool, showing he’s great value when you look at model, historical & market value. You can see this clearly – our model and his career strike rate would have him priced around $56-64. All other bookies have hi at $56 or less. And we’re getting $81. As he’s a middle forward, we’ve decided to play him in three different bets – to score the 1st, 2nd or last try at $81. This is when we think he’ll be on the field and we can get the best possible value.
Scott Sorenson is playing on the left edge for the Panthers. Our model has him priced at $25 for first try scorer, most bookies have him at $34 or less. So you can see why we like the $41 for him to score first on Neds & $16 for him to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on TAB (similar to $48 for FTS).
Kelma Tuilagi scored a try last weekend and has looked pretty good for Manly this season. It will hurt him that Schuster is out, but we still love the $67 for him to score the first try or the first try in the second half (two separate bets). Our model has him priced at $43 and most bookies have him at $51 or less.
Broncos v Raiders
Sat 8/4, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Josh Papali’i ATS @ $9.75 on Sportsbet
Joseph Tapine 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $81 on TAB (Void – ruled out)
Update Fri 7/4 – Tapine was crunched in on TAB and is now available at $71 on Sportsbet to score first. We still think this is decent value. Josh Papali’i is still available at $9.75 to score anytime. His career strike rate converted to odds would be $4.75 – so you can see why we think this is a good value play, even if he is playing the Broncos.
Titans v Dragons
Sun 9/4, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tanah Boyd ATS @ $6.80 + FTS & FTS2H @ $51 on Neds
Ben Hunt FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Moses Suli FTS @ $29 & ATS @ $4.40 on Neds
Ben Murdoch-Masila 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $21 on TAB
Joe Stimson 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $26 on TAB
Erin Clark FTS2H @ $101 on TAB
Update Sat 8/4 – Tanah Boyd is still the same price on Neds. Stimson is now at $23, Murdoch-Masila at $17 and Clark at $81 for the respective markets. We still think all 3 of them are good enough value at the current prices. We’ve added Ben Hunt as a value play at $29 to score the first and last try (2 separate bets) on Bet365.
Tanah Boyd is priced at #38 or less by other bookies and $31 by our model to score the first try. He’s priced at $5.50 or less by other bookies and $5.25 by our model to score anytime. It’s clear to see why we like the $6.80 for him to score anytime and $51 for first try scorer (FTS) & fts 2nd half. With Foran, Brimson and Verrils out he will also get more touches so we also like this from a footy perspective.
Joe Stimson and Erin Clark aren’t noted try scorers. But in both cases, we’re mainly playing the number here. Stimson’s priced at $30 by our model and $41 or less by most bookies to score the first try. The $67 for him to score first is a great price on TAB. We’ve chosen to play it in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market at a juicy price again. This was $26 and is now $23 which we still love. Clark is more of an ‘eye test’ play. He had great stats at the end of 2023 and we like the $81 on offer still for him to score the first try in the second half while he comes on to play hooker or running through the middle.
The Dragons have played decent footy in 2023 and come up against a Titans side missing three of their spine in Foran, Brimson and Verrils. Ben Hunt’s career strike rate converted to betting odds for scoring the first try would be $18. He scored for the Dragons last week and we like the $29 on offer for him to score first and last (2 separate bets). Ben Murdoch-Masila also looked good last weekend. Our model has him priced at $34. The $51 for first try scorer on TAB and Pointsbet is a good value play, but we like the $17 on offer him to score any of the first three tries. Any Murdoch-Masila try scorer on the sites that have him at $51 to score the first try should be good value.
Update Sun 9/4 – Moses Suli has been added to the value plays for this game. Priced under $4 to score anytime and $21 to score first by our model and most bookies, it’s clear to see why we love the value on offer on Neds. He’s been playing Ben Hunt’s right edge for the Titans and we also expect this to be a high scoring game.
Knights v Warriors
Sun 9/4, 6.15pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jackson Ford ATS @ $8.25, FTS @67 + FTS2H @$51 on Neds (Ats won here)
Tyson Frizell ATS @ $7, FTS @$51 + FTS2H @ $41 on Neds (Ats won here)
Bayley Sironen 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $21 on TAB + FTS & LTS Team @ $26 on TAB
Jackson Hastings 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $34 + FTS & LTS Team @ $51 on TAB
Jayden Brailey 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $26 & FTS & LTS Team @ $34 on TAB
Update Sat 8/4 – Tyson Frizell is still the same odds on Neds and is excellent value. Ford has been crunched in and is no longer good value at around $5 ats and $31 fts. Bayley Sironen is still $21 to score any of the first three tries and $23 to score the Warriors’ first try which we still like. Hastings & Brailey have been crunched in on TAB for these markets. They are still $81 to score the first try – it might be worth a small stake at this price rather than the value plays we’d picked out earlier.
The two best plays here are Frizell and Sironen. Sironen will be playing on the right edge with Shaun Johnson. Johnson put Niukore and Curran over for tries, who were both playing as the backrowers on the right edge. So he’s good from a footy perspective and also a great price for a second rower in a 50/50 game. Frizell is $7 ats/$51 fts on Neds which is an excellent price. Most other bookies and our model have him at $5.70 or less. Most bookies and our model have Frizell and Sironen at $41 or less to score the first try as well.
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