Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 5 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round. Everything on our site is free – whether you want to join our Discord community or access any of our data tools you can do it all for free here.
If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, we’ve written an article to help you out. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!
Sharks v Warriors
Sun 2/4, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Sione Katoa ATS @ $2.05 on Neds
Braden Uele ATS @ $9.75 on Sportsbet
Matt Moylan 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on TAB
Blayke Brailey 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $19 on TAB
Nicho Hynes 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $11 on TAB
Marata Niukore 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $21 on TAB
Adam Pompey 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $16 on TAB
Update Sat 1/4 – Unfortunately Uele is now into $7.50 to score anytime which is OK value at best. Moylan, Brailey & Hynes are still the same price for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market on TAB.
Nicho Hynes was in excellent form in his first outing for the Sharks last weekend. Up against a Warriors side who might be missing Tohu Harris and playing away from home in a day game, this is a dream spot for Hynes. Hynes is priced around $21-26 on most bookies to score the first try. We’re getting $11 for him to score any of the first three tries on TAB. Good matchup & a good number – we’re pumped about this play on Hynes!
Brailey & Moylan aren’t regular try scorers but we love the number here. Brailey is paying around $34 or less to score the first try at most bookies. TAB has him at $51 and the $19 for him to score any of the first three tries would be similar to $57 for FTS. Excellent price here. Moylan is $26 or less at most bookies and our model to score the first try. We’re getting $15 for him to score any of the first three tries, similar to $45 for FTS. Again, love the price on offer here.
Niukore & Pompey are value plays mainly off the price. Niukore is priced in the $40s by most bookies and our model. We’re getting a number similar to $63 for first try scorer on TAB. We love the value on offer with $21 for him to score any of the first three tries. On Shaun Johnson’s right edge, we can see Niukore getting over early. Pompey is $26 or less on most bookies. We’re getting $16 for him to score any of the 3rd tries. This is almost purely a numbers play.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Bulldogs v Cowboys
Sun 2/4, 6.15pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Chad Townsend 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $21 on TAB
Viliame Kikau 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $13 on TAB (Void – Kikau’s out for 2 weeks with concussion)
Griffin Neame ATS @ $10.50 on Sportsbet
Heilum Luki FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Coen Hess 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $18 on TAB
Update Sat 1/4 – Kikau will be replaced by RFM (moving from lock to 2nd row) or Waddell. Best way to play it is RFM anytime try scorer (7.50) + 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts (23) + lts team (31s) on TAB. We also think it’s worth getting on Waddell – fts team (34s) + fts2h (67) + ats (8.50).
Further update – Waddell is still good odds on Neds ($67 fts/$9.75 ats).
Griffin Neame is now $10 on Sportsbet, which we still think is great value. His career strike rate turned into odds would be $7.75 and most bookies have him there or lower. Playing against the Dogs who are already short on middle forwards and now missing Kikau as well, we think the $10 is a great price.
Chad Townsend is still $21 to score any of the first three tries on TAB. Our model has him priced at $32. His career strike rate turned into odds would be $52 – where TAB & Sportsbet have him priced. We’re getting similar odds to $63 for first try scorer with the $21 to score any of the first three tries. He also plays on the right side, running at a new edge back rower with Kikau ruled out due to a concussion.
Heilum Luki is now $26 to score the first try on Neds. Even though the price isn’t as good as the $29 on 365 earlier in the week, he’ll likely take Nanai’s spot on the right edge for the Cowboys. As we’ve said above with Townsend, that edge will be up against a Bulldogs left side missing Kikau. So we still think this is a good value play. Luki’s running style is perfect for try scorer plays!
Coen Hess to score any of the first three tries at $18 is great value on TAB. For reference – he’s priced at $30 by our model to score the first try.
Roosters v Eels
Thu 30/3, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Nat Butcher First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $29 & $5.20 ATS on Neds
J’maine Hopgood FTS Team @ $34, LTS Team @ $34 + 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $31 on TAB
Update Thu 30/3 – Butcher is still $29 & $5 for FTS & ATS so we still love the value on offer here. Hopgood is $26 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try which we still think is excellent value. His Team FTS & LTS odds have been crunched in, however he’s still $67 for FTS2H & LTS which we still really like.
Nat Butcher will line up against Cartwright & Blake on the Eels’ left edge. This is more a matchups pick rather than the number.
J’maine Hopgood should play close to 80 minutes with Junior Paulo out for the Eels. He had a decent try scoring record in NSW Cup and he seems to have brought that attacking running style into the NRL. The Eels impressed last week by beating the Panthers and we think Hopgood is a good value pick on TAB.
NRL Draftstars – $15,000 contest
Value Pick – J’maine Hopgood @ $18,460. With Paulo out, we expect Hopgood to play close to 80 minutes with RCG & Matterson the only other recognised middle forwards for the Eels. He’s averaged over 70 DS points in the 3 games he’s played over 60 minutes.
Fade Option – James Tedesco @ $20,920. Averaging only 40 DS points in 2023 and priced at over $20k – it’s easy to see why he’s only a 4/10 in Wicky’s value ratings. Coming off a bye against a confident Eels outfit, we think your money would be better spent on Hopgood, Matterson and either of Moses or Brown.
Team Composition – We’re going to start off by suggesting you Hopgood and one of RCG & Matterson to start building your team. The Roosters are at home, coming off the bye and favourites with the bookies. So we think going with the Eels’ backs could be a contrarian play in this $15,000 contest on Draftstars.
We used Hopgood, RCG, Moses as the base of our team. Adding Gutherson, Sivo, Baker & Murchie – we were able to slip under the salary cap to make a pretty reasonable team!
Raiders v Panthers
Fri 31/3, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Corey Harawira-Naera ATS @ $11 & 1st, 2nd or 3rd try at $34 on TAB
Matt Frawley Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $12 on Bet365
Josh Papali’i ATS @ $12 on Bet365
Joseph Tapine ATS @ $15 & FTS + LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Emre Guler FTS2H @ $101, ATS @ $21 & LTS Team @ $81 on TAB
Corey Horsburgh FTS2H @ $101 on Neds
Update Thu 30/3 – Frawley, Papali’i & Horsburgh are still the same price on 365 & Neds respectively. Tapine has been crunched in significantly and is no longer good value. He’s around $61 and $12 for FTS & ATS respectively. Guler has been crunched in also but the $17 for ATS & $51 for LTS team is still decent value on TAB.
Corey Harawira-Naera has been named at lock but being playing as the right edge back rower for most of this season. Even though he’s now $21 for 1st, 2nd or try on TAB – we still love the value here. He’s still $11 to score a try anytime which we absolutely love.
Matt Frawley isn’t a noted try scorer but he gets ‘three green lights’ from our odds comparison tool. His anytime try scorer price of $12 on 365 is great value whichever way you look at it. You can see he’s great value compared to our model, his career strike rate and other bookies.
Josh Papali’i is priced at 2.5x what his career strike rate would suggest his anytime try scorer price should be. We understand he’s playing the Panthers, but $12 is an excellent price for ‘Big Papa’.
Corey Horsburgh scored 2 tries in a game only a couple of weeks ago. He’s now paying $101 to score the first try in the second half. This is up against a Panthers bench with Lindsay Smith and Tyrone Peachey. Both of them are playing their first game this season.
Rabbitohs v Storm
Fri 31/3, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Keaon Koloamatangi Anytime Tryscorer @ $5.40 on Neds
Eliesa Katoa FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Cameron Murray 1st, 2nd or 3rd try at $26 + ATS @ $8.50
Tui Kamikamica 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $31 on TAB + ATS @ $10.50 on Sportsbet
Reimis Smith 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on TAB
Update Thu 30/3 – Koloamatangi, Katoa, Kamikamica & Smith are all the same price.
Cam Murray is now $21 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try & $7.50 for anytime try scorer. Even though he’s slightly shorter, we still love the value for Murray. For reference – most bookies have him priced under $40 for first try scorer and under $6 for anytime try scorer. We’re getting a great price and after a relatively quiet start to 2023, we’re backing Murray to lead from the front in a crunch game against the Storm.
Koloamatangi played in the middle for most of the last weekend’s game. We’re thinking he goes back to the right edge with Hame Sele back for Souths. The $5.50 for anytime try scorer is a great price compared to our model and most bookies who have him at $4.60 or below. He’s been in excellent form in 2023 so far and he’s already won a first try scorer bet for us this season!
Eliesa Katoa & Reimis Smith will miss the fact that Jahrome Hughes is missing but Jonah Pezet has looked good early in his NRL career. For reference – Katoa is priced at $31 or less on other bookies and our model has him priced at $27. So we love the $41 on offer for FTS/LTS for Katoa. He had 3 linebreaks two weeks ago! Reimis Smith is excellent value on TAB – our model and most bookies have him at $25 or less for first try scorer. And we’re getting $14 for him to score any of the first three tries!
Tui Kamikamica has been relatively quiet this season after returning from injury in round 3. Coming up against a Souths missing a few players – we love the $31 for him to score any of the first three tries. The $10.50 for anytime try scorer is also a good value play. If he doesn’t get the job done early, he could be dangerous up against a tired Souths pack missing a few of their bench forwards.
Manly v Knights
Sat 1/4, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jackson Hastings 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $51, FTS Team @ $41, LTS Team @ $41 on TAB
Daniel Saifiti 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $41 on TAB & FTS @ $101 on Sportsbet
Jayden Brailey 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $34 & LTS Team @ $31 on TAB
Update Fri 31/3 – Hastings, Saifiti and Brailey have all been crunched in on TAB.
Jackson Hastings is $26 to score one of the first three tries on TAB, which is still decent value. He’s $34 for both Team FTS & LTS which is probably better value.
Daniel Saifiti is averaging just shy of 150 run metres in 2023 and will continue to play big minutes for an undermanned Knights pack. We still love the $34 on offer for him to score any of the first tries. Sportsbet currently have him at $101 for first try scorer which we also think is good value.
Jayden Brailey has been the first try scorer one in every 26 games he’s played. Most bookies have him at $50 or below. He’s $26 to score any of the first three tries in this game – similar to getting $78 for first try scorer. He’s also $31 to score the last try for the Knights. This is our favourite play of the game now.
Dragons v Dolphins
Sat 1/4, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Ben Murdoch-Masila 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $18 on TAB
Kenny Bromwich 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $18 on TAB
Jesse Bromwich 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $34 & ATS @ $11 on TAB/Sportsbet
Euan Aitken FTS2H @ $41 on TAB, Team FTS & LTS both at $19 on TAB
Jeremy Marshall-King 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $18 on TAB
Update Fri 31/3 – Murdoch-Masila & Kenny Bromwich’s odds haven’t changed on TAB. Jesse Bromwich is now $12 ATS on Topsport & $29 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer on TAB.
Jesse Bromwich is playing his 300th game. He had impressive try scoring stats early in his career and now has Marshall-King back at hooker. Although the Dolphins might struggle without a O’Sullivan, Kaufusi and Niu – we love the price for Jesse to get over in a milestone game here. Our model has him priced at $68 and if you go by his career strike rate, he’d be priced at $49 to score the first try.
Murdoch-Masila & Kenny Bromwich are mainly a numbers based play here. We’re getting similar odds to getting $54 for them to be first try scorer. For reference – our model and most bookies have them both around $30-40 to score the first try. Murdoch-Masila isn’t overly involved but does look threatening when he gets the ball close to the line.
Update 1/4 – Aitken is a great price on TAB and is coming up against his old side. We know he’s a ball hog and the price we’re getting for him to score the first try for his team ($19) – he’s around that price to score the first try for the match on most bookies and our model!
Marshall-King is $34 or less to score the first try at most bookies. Our model and his career strike rate would have him around $40-50. We love the $18 for him to score any of the first tries. He’s missed the last two weeks and the Dolphins will rely on him for spark as they’re missing their half-back (O’Sullivan) & a couple of their forward pack leaders.
One to watch – Jack Bird. He’s a good price on TAB. If Jack De Belin starts at lock and Bird moves to the edge – we’ll look at 1st, 2nd or 3rd + FTS team markets for Bird.
Broncos v Tigers
Sat 1/4, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Stefano Utoikamanu ATS @ $17 & FTS Team @ $34 + LTS Team @ $34 on Sportsbet (Benched – $101 for fts on sportsbet)
Alex Twal FTS2H @ $151 & LTS Team @ $81 on TAB (he’s now starting – look at fts/lts plays instead on TAB)
Luke Brooks 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $23 on TAB
Update Fri 31/3 – Alex Twal is now at $126 on Neds to score the first try in the 2nd half and $67 LTS Team on TAB. Utoikamanu is $15 ATS & the same price for FTS/LTS Team. Brooks is still the same price on TAB.
Stefano Utoikamanu has been in our value plays every round this season. He’s averaged 100 metres in 49 minutes this season. He’s already scored a try in 2023 and scores one every 5.3 games across his career. You can see why we think the $15 for him to score anytime is good value. Most bookies have him around $10 to score anytime and $67 to score first. We think this is reasonable given they’re up against the undefeated Broncos at Suncorp. We love the $34 for FTS/LTS Team on Sportsbet. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Tigers only managed to score one try. With these two bets, if that does happen, we’d win both!
Alex Twal has never scored a try in the NRL. This is almost as well known amongst league fans as Damien Cook being a beach sprinter. However, we’re happy to play a good number when we see one. The Broncos are strong favourites at Suncorp, and so they should be. But $126 for Twal to score the first try in the 2nd half & $67 for him to score the Tigers’ last try is still a good price in our opinion. He’s averaged 110 metres in just over 50 metres this season. With some uncertainty in the Tigers outfit – we’re backing Twal to get the job done in the 2nd half and hopefully win both plays here! It sure worked with Api Koroisau against the Storm last weekend at $81 odds.
Luke Brooks is priced at $51 or lower by our model and most bookies to score the first try. The $23 on TAB for him to score any of the first three tries is similar to getting $69 for first try scorer. This is definitely more about playing the number rather than great confidence in Brooks or the Tigers.
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