Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 24 of the 2023 NRL season. Luke Brooks kept us sweating till the end but he held on to be the last try scorer at $51 to round off Round 23!
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Storm v Raiders
Sun 13/8, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Matt Timoko ATS @ $4.50 on Betr. FTS & LTS @ $26 on TAB/Betr**
Josh Papalii ATS @ $13 on Sportsbet**
Joseph Tapine & Josh Papalii FTS & LTS @ $71 on Sportsbet
Young Tonumaipea FTS & LTS @ $19 on Dabble
Zac Woolford & Christian Welch FTS & LTS $81 on Dabble
Emre Guler FTS2H @ $71 on Sportsbet
Jamal Fogarty FTS @ $51 on Bet Right**
Elliott Whitehead FTS @ $41 on Bet Right**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update – We’ve added Corey Horsburgh FTS @ $81 on Bet Right – we can not believe this price made it to game day. He’s had a breakout season this year and no other site has him above $67 to score first. Today is setup perfectly for Wicky’s try scorers – the Raiders are close to 12 point underdogs when we think it’ll be a close game decided by a try (Raiders have won the last 5 at AAMI Park, Storm have been unconvincing recently). Josh Papalii has the best try scorer strike rate for middle forwards in the NRL – he is still $71 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet. We absolutely love these prices. Joey Tapine has been in career-best form the last couple of seasons which hasn’t necessarily results in many tries, however, we love the $67-71 for him for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet and other bookies.
Timoko is now $4 at best to score anytime on Neds & Betr which is still better than fair price. Shows how good the $4.50 was earlier in the week! He’s $23 & $21 for FTS & LTS respectively on a few sites – which is still a decent price for him. Young Tonumaipea is $17 & $16 for FTS & LTS on Bet Right – our model loves the $17 for FTS still and we’ll listen this time (we didn’t include him at $34 for FTS even though the model loved it last week and he did score first against the Panthers)! Josh Papalii is $12.50-13 on Sportsbet & Betr to score anytime – his odds would be $4.90 if you go by his career strike rate.
Jamal Fogarty & Elliott Whitehead are $41 to score the first try which we still like for Whitehead and is still OK for Fogarty. Whitehead is $41 for FTS on Betr, Fogarty is $41 for FTS on Betr, Sportsbet & on Bet Right. Zac Woolford is still $67 for FTS & LTS on Dabble, $67 for FTS on Neds & Betr as well + LTS @ $67 on Sportsbet. Christian Welch is $71 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet.
Wicky Preview Thu 10/8 – The Raiders just got home against the Tigers and the Storm got smacked against the Panthers. The Raiders have won their last 5 at AAMI Park and there is still a chance that Jahrome Hughes is a late out for the Storm. The Raiders have had a lot of close games this year – we think the +12.5 or either team under 12.5 bets are a great option for this game!
From a try scorer perspective – we love the value on Raiders players this game. Let’s start with the obvious one – Josh Papali’i. He scores a try one in every 4.9 NRL games he plays. And he’s $13 to score anytime on Sportsbet! We love him so much we’ve named our most popular Wicky Premium package after him! He’s currently $81 to score first on Betr & $71 to score last on Sportsbet.
Joey Tapine, Zac Woolford & Emre Guler (benched – so FTS2H)are all at great prices also in this game. Tapine scored an inspiring try only a couple of weeks ago – he hasn’t been as good as he was last season, he’ll know the Raiders need him to step up to lock up a finals spot in 2023 with a win in Melbourne! Woolford and Guler aren’t consistent try scorers – but we love them at $67 or above for FTS + LTS (Woolford) & FTS2H (Guler) respectively.
Jamal Fogarty & Young Tonumaipea are still $51 & $17 respectively on Bet Right which we love. Our model has Tonumaipea priced at $14 and he scored the first try against the Panthers last week!
Matt Timoko is $4 & $23 for ATS & FTS respectively. He’s been dominant for the Raiders this season and running at Young Tonumaipea who’s replaced Justin Olam on the Storm’s left edge – we love the chances of Timoko storming over.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Knights v Bulldogs
Sun 13/8, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jackson Hastings ATS @ $6.60 on PlayUp. FTS @ $41 on Neds
Dane Gagai ATS @ $3.25 on Neds
Tyson Frizell ATS @ $4.50 on Neds
Greg Marzhew ATS @ $1.62 on Betr**
Tyson Gamble FTS @ $31 on Neds
Jacob Saifiti LTS @ $61 on Sportsbet**
Jacob Saifiti FTS @ $61 on Bet Right**
Toby Sexton FTS @ $51 on Neds**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Game Day Update – Gagai is $3 to score anytime on Neds & Sportsbet – still comfortably higher than the $2.66 our model has him priced at. Frizell is best at $4.20 on Bet Right now – again comfortably higher than the $3.83 our model has him priced at. Hastings is the pick of the lot – still $6.25 on Neds and our model & most bookies have him priced around $5! Marzhew is $1.62 to score anytime on Neds & Topsport – our model has him priced at $1.41. It’s unusual to see such a big discrepancy for wingers on game day. He’s on Ponga’s favoured left edge, and with no Bradman Best, maybe Ponga hits Marzhew directly more often!
For the first try scorer plays – Gamble, Hastings & Sexton are still $31, $41 & $51 on Neds – these are our model’s 3 favourite picks for this game! Jacob Saifiti is now $51 at best for FTS & LTS on Dabble – which is still OK but we love him at $61 or higher.
Wicky Preview Thu 10/8 – A few weeks ago, the Knights smashed the Bulldogs and it was one of our most profitable games EVER with two 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorers getting up + Kurt Mann going over first in the 2nd half at $67 for our Premium members! The Bulldogs are almost back to full strength and the Knights are missing Bradman Best – we think this game is likely to be much closer but the value is mainly with Knights players, so hopefully we’re wrong!
Hastings, Gamble, Frizell, Gagai & Marzhew are clear value at the best available price for them to score anytime compared to what our model has them priced at. If you’re looking to bet on value try scorers long term – the best way is to join Wicky Premium and get the best value on Tuesdays. These prices are unlikely to last till game day.
The first or last try scorer picks – Gamble & Hastings are clear value at the prices quoted above. We love Jacob Saifiti at $56 or above for FTS or LTS – he’s currently only $51 at best again.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Manly v Panthers
Thu 10/8, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Brad Parker FTS @ $34 (widely available) & ATS @ $6 on Neds**
Daly Cherry-Evans FTS & LTS @ $41 on TAB**
Haumole Olakau’atu FTS & LTS @ $34 on TAB**
Jake Trbojevic First Try Scorer @ $151 on Sportsbet
Lachlan Croker FTS & LTS @ $67 on TAB
Brian To’o FTS @ $7 on Dabble & on Bet Right**
Jarome Luai FTS & LTS @ $21 + ATS @ $3.60 on Bet365 (Void – ruled out)
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky Preview – Most fans were thinking this would be a bloodbath with Manly missing three of their front rowers. But now with Luai and Kenny officially ruled out and Leniu and Tago already missing + the game being at Brookvale & Manly’s season on the line – it could be an interesting game!
The Panthers are playing Zac Hosking at right centre and the Storm did have success early in the game attacking that edge with Young Tonumaipea (their left centre) scoring the first try. This is why we’ve played Brad Parker – who is Manly’s left centre, outside Josh Schuster. Daly Cherry-Evans & Haumole Olakau’atu are on Manly’s right edge running at Jack Cogger who’s mainly played on the Panthers’ right side when he was filling in for Nathan Cleary. They’re both 15-20% higher on TAB than other bookies so we think it’s a great chance to get on two consistent try scorers at a juicy price.
Jake Trbojevic & Lachlan Croker at $151 and $67 respectively are a great price given this game is likely to be more competitive with the Panthers’ outs. We think Jake is fine to bet on at $126 or above for FTS/LTS and Croker at $61 or above. Croker’s scored 5 tries this year – 4 of them have been against top 8 teams. Jake Trbojevic was an elite try scorer earlier in his career, however, in this case we’re just playing the number ($126 or above).
Sharks v Titans
Fri 11/8, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tino Faasamaleuai FTS & LTS @ $51 & ATS @ $8 on TAB** (This won – Tino scored!)
Cam McInnes ATS @ $9.50 on Betr (This won – McInnes scored!)
Jaimin Jolliffe FTS & LTS @ $81 on Dabble & Bet365
Joe Stimson FTS @ $56 & ATS @ $9 on Sportsbet**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Fri 11/8 – Tino is now $7.50 to score anytime. He’s $51 to score first or last on Pointsbet & Bet Right. McInnes is $8.75 to score anytime on Sportsbet which we still like – our model has him priced at $7.55. Stimson is $8.75 to score anytime & $56 to score first on Sportsbet which we still like running at the weak Sharks left edge. Jolliffe is $67 to score first and last on Unibet – we think $61 or above is OK to take him at, $71 or higher is good value.
Wicky Preview Thu 10/8 – There are so many ways this game could play out. The Sharks beat up bottom 9 teams. The Titans have beaten or competed against some of the top teams this season. Tino is back. Fotuaika, Brimson and Verills are missing. We think the Sharks will win this one comfortably at home against a Titans side that played a man down for 60 minutes and has to travel to Shark Park.
The only Sharks value pick is Cam McInnes to score a try anytime at $9.50 on Betr. The Titans’ middle is notoriously weak and McInnes should play big minutes with Finucane, Hazelton and Kaufusi missing. Our model has him priced at $7.50 and most bookies are around this mark or lower.
Tino Faasamaleuai has one of the best strike rates at scoring tries for middle forwards in the NRL. He scores a try every 4.8 NRL games he plays. He scores the last try in every 12 NRL games. You can see why we like the $8 on Betr for ATS & $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet Right & Pointsbet.
Joe Stimson scored a try last week, but that was chasing a grubber. We don’t love him as a try scorer pick, however, he’s running at the left edge of the Sharks. He’s $51 to score the first try on Dabble & a few other bookies and $9 to score anytime on Betr. Jolliffe was purely a play on the number – he’s no longer $81 for FTS & LTS. We’d play him at $76 or above but he’s $67 at best now.
Broncos v Eels
Fri 11/8, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Sean Russell ATS @ $2.75 on Bet365** (This won – Russell scored!)
Tom Flegler FTS & LTS @ $71 & $67 on Sportsbet
Wiremu Greig FTS2H @ $67 on Neds
Mitchell Moses FTS @ $41 on Bet Right**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Fri 11/8 – We’ve added a same game multi on Dabble with Staggs & Cobbo to score. Running at a left edge for the Eels which conceded four tries to Ravalawa from the Dragons, we love the picks and the price on the play here! Flegler is now $76 & $91 for FTS & LTS respectively which we love! Greig is still $67 for FTS2H on Neds. Moses is now $41 to score first on Betr – most bookies and his career strike rate would all have him priced below $34 so we love this price. Russell is $2.50 on Betr & Pointsbet to score anytime which is pretty much a fair price.
Wicky Preview Thu 10/8 – The Broncos beat the Cowboys comfortably without Adam Reynolds last week. Now Reynolds is back – it’s hard to see the Eels being able to save their season with a win.
We liked Moses at $41 & Russell at $2.75, however, they’re both considerably shorter now. The two middle forwards – Flegler & Greig are still a decent price. Flegler’s been impressive in 2023 and running at an Eels pack missing RCG & Lane still – we like him at $67 or higher for FTS & LTS, which he still is on Sportsbet. We called Greig as a future try scoring beast earlier this season and he proved us right by scoring a couple of weeks later. We like him at $67 or higher for FTS2H (he’s on the bench) – which he still is on Neds.
Rabbitohs v Dragons
Sat 12/8, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Mikaele Ravalawa ATS @ $2.40 on Betr** (This won)
Campell Graham ATS @ $2.10 on Betr** (This won)
Lachlan Ilias ATS @ $4.25 on Pointsbet
Keaon Koloamatangi ATS @ $3.25 on Bet365**
Isaiah Tass ATS @ $2.90 on Neds + FTS @ $17 on Topsport & Neds**
Ben Hunt FTS @ $41 on Betr
Michael Molo FTS @ $75 on Topsport
Michael Molo LTS @ $81 on Bet Right**
Cam Murray FTS @ $41 & LTS @ $34 on Bet Right**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sat 12/8 – The anytime try scorer prices for Ilias, Tass, Ravalawa & Koloamatangi are almost the same on the sites quoted above – we still like them all. Cam Graham is $1.95 at best on Neds & TAB which is fair price now. For the first try scorer prices – Hunt is now $41 to score first on Betr, Tass is still $17 on Neds, Michael Molo is $67 on most bookies & Murray is still $41 on Bet Right. For the last try scorer market – Michael Molo is $71 on Sportsbet & Cam Murray is $34 on Bet Right.
Wicky Preview Thu 10/8 – The Rabbitohs were leading the comp before State of Origin this year but their defence has been horrible since then and now they’re in a fight to make the top 8. The Dragons were impressive – almost beating the Eels last week. But they’ve got Bird, Lomax & Francis Molo missing from last week, we think the Rabbitohs can get back to form and put on a cricket score against the Dragons!
Tass, Ilias & Ravalawa are our model’s 3 favourite picks for this game. Rava scored 4 last week and Tass & Ilias are a great chance to score if the Rabbitohs do put on a cricket score in a 3pm game up in Cairns. Graham & Koloamatangi on the right side for the Rabbits are also good value.
Cam Murray has scored the first try one in every 20 NRL games he’s played. The last try one in every 25 NRL games. His odds are $41 and $34 respectively against a Dragons side who are missing Frank Molo, Jack de Belin, Jack Bird and Jaydn Su’a from their first choice pack.
The Dragons were impressive last week and if they do show up – we love $41 for Ben Hunt FTS/LTS (he’s $41 on Betr currently) & Michael Molo at $67 or higher for FTS/LTS (he’s $81 for last try scorer on Bet Right, $67 for FTS on a few sites).
Wests Tigers v Warriors
Sat 12/8, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Luke Metcalf ATS @ $3.40 & FTS & LTS @ $21 on Bet365 (This won – Metcalf scored the first try!)
Adam Pompey ATS @ $3.40 on Bet Right** (This won!)
Luke Brooks ATS @ $7.50 on Sportsbet & Betr (This won!)
Shaun Johnson ATS @ $3.40 on Bet365
Jackson Ford FTS @ $26 & ATS @ $4.10 on Bet Right**
Rocco Berry & Adam Pompey FTS @ $21 on Bet Right**
Marata Niukore FTS @ $29 on Bet Right & Neds**
Daine Laurie FTS @ $51 on Bet Right**
Stefano Utoikamanu LTS @ $61 & ATS @ $10 on Bet Right + FTS @ $54 on Topsport**
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sat 12/8 – For the anytime try scorer picks – Johnson, Metcalf & Brooks are almost the same price on the bookies quoted above. Pompey is now $3.25 on Sportsbet & Ford is now $3.80 on Sportsbet which we still like. For the first try scorer market – Metcalf is still $21, Ford is $23 on Betr, Berry is $19 on Dabble, Pompey is widely available at $19, Niukore is still $29 on Neds and Laurie has been crunched in and is no longer value. Stefano Utoikamanu is at $9.50 to score anytime on Betr and $54 for FTS on Topsport which we still like. He’s one of our favourite try scorers – so anything at $51 or above is fine to play him for FTS, 2nd TS or LTS.
Wicky Preview Thu 10/8 – We thought the Raiders could cover the start against a Raiders side who have struggled to put away sides in 2023 and they almost won! The line is at an awkward spot at this one and the Tigers have also taken their home game to NZ which makes things tricky. The Tigers are almost at full strength whereas the Warriors are missing Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad.
Our anytime try scorer plays – Pompey, Johnson, Metcalf, Ford & Brooks are all value according to our model. Johnson, Ford & Brooks scored last week and Metcalf has looked excellent for the Warriors scoring a few tries in recent weeks.
Ford & Niukore have been great for the Warriors in recent weeks – we love the FTS prices for them, however, if they dip by more than 10% we’d leave the play.
Daine Laurie looked good for the Tigers last week and we think anything above $45 is a really good price for him. Stefano Utoikmanu scores a try one in every 6.4 NRL games he plays. We would play them at $45 and $55 or higher for FTS/LTS. The prices above have been crunched in but if they pop up again – we love the value for these two in an underrated Tigers side.
Roosters v Dolphins
Sat 12/8, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Billy Smith ATS @ $3.30 on Bet Right** (This won)
Valynce Te Whare ATS @ $3.60 on Betr**
Jamayne Isaako FTS @ $13 on Betr
Drew Hutchison FTS & LTS @ $31 on Dabble (scored two tries but not the first or the last!)
Mark Nicholls FTS, 2nd TS & LTS @ $61 on Pointsbet**
Jeremy Marshall-King FTS @ $41 on Neds**
Josh Kerr FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Update Sat 12/8 – Te Whare is now $3.40 on 365 & Billy Smith $$3.15 on Sportsbet for the anytime try scorer market – both picks are still OK value. Hutchison is still $29 for FTS & LTS on Pointsbet, Isaako is still $13 on Betr, Kerr is still $81 for FTS2H on Bet Right, Marshall-King is still $41 on Bet Right as well as Bet365 & Neds. Nicholls is still $61 for FTS on Pointsbet and widely available at $51 or higher for FTS & 2nd TS which we still like.
Wicky Preview Thu 10/8 – Jamayne Isaako scored a hat-trick before half-time last week and comes up against a weaker side in the Roosters this week. We love the $13 for him to score first on Betr, our model has him priced at $11.70! The man mountain inside him, Valynce Te Whare is paying $3.40 to score anytime on Bet365 & Billy Smith who looked great last week is now $3.10 at best on Sportsbet & Betr – both picks are good matchups + noticeably better than our model’s price.
Jeremy Marshall-King came close to scoring a couple of times last week. He’s $41 to score first on Bet Right and a couple of other bookies. With him back, it also raises our confidence in Mark Nicholls crashing over. We think $51 or more is OK for him but we love him at $61 or more for FTS, LTS & 2nd try scorer. He’s currently $61 for FTS on Topsport. Josh Kerr is $81 to score the first try in the 2nd half. Running at Baker, Napa & May – we love this price. It’s available on Bet Right & Neds. Drew Hutchison is still $29-31 for FTS & LTS on Bet Right & Pointsbet/Betr – we like his running game and he’s also a decent price to score anytime ($5.25 on Bet Right).
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
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