Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 23 of the 2023 NRL season. We’re coming off one of our best rounds for 2023 where we nailed four try scorers between $41 & $81 in Round 21 as well as a few any time try scorer picks!
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Raiders v Wests Tigers
Sun 6/8, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Luke Brooks** FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365 (Brooks scored the last try @ $51!)
Jordan Rapana ATS @ $2.70 on Bet365. FTS & LTS @ $15 on Bet365**
Aitasi James FTS2H @ $67 on Neds
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky Preview Sun 6/8 – Rapana’s been crunched in and is now fair price. Brooks is still $51 for FTS & LTS & James is out to $71-81 on Sportsbet to score first in the 2nd half (FTS2H).
The Raiders are strong favourites in this one but the Tigers are pretty close to full strength and have Brooks, Bula & Koroisau back in their spine. Luke Brooks is a good ball runner and usually backs up from half-breaks from the Tigers. His career strike rate converted to odds would be $41 for FTS and most bookies have him under that price also, it’s clear to see why we think the $51 is good value for FTS & LTS. Aitasi James is a man mountain who will come off the bench for the Tigers. We love his running style and think anything from $67 or above for FTS2H is a good price.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Roosters v Manly
Thu 3/8, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Sandon Smith Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $7.25 on Sportsbet (Cash out, he’s benched!)
Jason Saab** FTS @ $13 on Betr
Josh Schuster** FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky’s write-up (Thu 3/8) – Schuster & Saab are clear value picks according to our model. They’re both priced way over our model’s price & other bookies. Most bookies and our model also have Sandon Smith priced under $6 to score anytime so we love the $7.25 on Sportsbet.
Saab is on Manly’s right wing with Cherry-Evans, Olakau’atu & Koula + Schuster’s running at Sandon Smith’s right edge for the Roosters. Sandon Smith has had two linebreaks in his 6 full NRL games in 2023 – we love the odds for him to get over anytime against Manly.
Update – Sandon Smith is benched, cash out. Our Premium members were notified the minute that teams were updated and we’ve gone hard on Drew Hutchison paying around 1.5-2x the price he should have been!
Titans v Warriors
Fri 4/8, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Kieran Foran FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Phil Sami ATS @ $2.70 on Bet365
Klese Haas FTS2H @ $51 on Neds & LTS @ $41 (multiple sites)
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky’s Preview – Fri 4/8 – Foran has been crunched in – he’s $41 for FTS & LTS on 365 & Dabble now which is a fair price. Sami’s still $2.70 on 365. Klese Haas is $41 for FTS 2nd half (FTS2H) & LTS on most bookies.
Our model and most bookies have Phil Sami priced around $2.25-2.50. A few people have told us we should have more lower odds picks – well here you go! Sami’s a clear cut value pick at $2.70 to score anytime on Bet365.
Klese Haas should get some time on an edge around half time or atleast later in the game. We’re hoping Stimson gets moved or benched for Haas to play the 2nd half on the edge. If he does – we love the $41 (or higher) for FTS2H or LTS.
Kieran Foran was priced around $41 by our model and most bookies – so we loved the $51 on offer for FTS/LTS on 365. If it comes up again at that price, we love it. The $41 which is widely available is fair price so we’d probably only go small stake or stay away.
Panthers v Storm
Fri 4/8, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Harry Grant & Cam Munster ATS @ $5 on TAB
Tui Kamikamica FTS @ $81 on Bet Right, LTS @ $71 on Bet Right
Eliesa Katoa** LTS @ $41 on Bet365 (should be on an edge for NAS end of game)
Alec Macdonald FTS2H @ $101 on Sportsbet (Void – ruled out)
Young Tonumaipea** ATS @ $5.50 on Bet Right (This won)
Jarome Luai** FTS @ $29 on Topsport
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky’s Preview – Fri 4/8 – We’ve taken the Jahrome Hughes pick out – him and Xavier Coates have been ruled out for the Storm. That’s two huge outs – a Kiwi halfback & an Origin winger. Playing away to the Panthers who are basically full strength. The Young T & Luai picks above are no longer relevant – both prices have been crunched in.
Katoa is now $51 for LTS on 365 which we love + Macdonald is still $101 for FTS2H on Sportsbet. Kamikamica is still $71 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet and Bet Right which we still like. Munster is $5 on TAB, Betr & PlayUp. Grant is $7.50 on Bet Right and $5 elsewhere. We still like these guys at $5 or higher – they’ll be the focus point in attack and have elite level career try scoring strike rates for their positions.
Eli Katoa at $51 is a great price as he’ll play on the right edge when he comes on with NAS shifting to the middle. Yes the Panthers have great defence and are likely to win this one comfortably – but anything above $41 for Katoa is a good price. Kamikamica is a strong ball runner and Grant’s excellent at putting middle forwards over the line. We love Kami at $67 or higher for fts or lts. Grant & Munster both have impressive try scoring records – we love them to score anytime at $5 or higher. Macdonald is more of a hunch – we love his running style and anything at $91 or higher is a good price for him to storm over early in the 2nd half.
Cowboys v Broncos
Sat 5/8, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Coen Hess** FTS @ $36 on Sportsbet. 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $14 on Sportsbet. Should start on Nanai’s edge with Luki taking over – the Cowboys love going to the right edge 2nd rower.
Heilum Luki** FTS2H @ $31 on Neds, LTS @ $29 (widely available)
Jason Taumalolo FTS & LTS @ $61+ on Bet Right &PlayUp
Jamayne Taunoa-Brown FTS2H @ $91 on Sportsbet
Billy Walters** FTS @ $51 on Sportsbet & Betr
Reece Robson** FTS @ $41 on Bet Right & Betr
Tom Flegler FTS @ $81 on Betr
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky Preview Sat 5/8 – Hess is still $34 for FTS on Dabble, Betr & 365. He’s $11 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer which is now OK value. Luki’s $29 for FTS2H & LTS on Neds. Taumalolo is $71 for FTS on Betright but $51 or less for LTS which we think is fair value at best. Taunoa-Brown is $81 for FTS2H on Betright & Sportsbet – we like anything above $71 for him for this market as he’s benched. We’ve also added Robson and Walters as FTS plays at $41 and $51 respectively.
Val Holmes, Adam Reynolds & Nanai are 3 huge losses – but this game is still set to be a blockbuster. The Broncos are looking to lock down a top 2 spot and the Cowboys, if they can keep winning, are an outside shot of a top 4 spot. In terms of value for this game – it’s mainly with the Cowboys players.
We love the right edge for the Cowboys (where Nanai usually plays). Hess is listed to start there and Luki should come on from the bench (shifting Hess to the middle). The price for both players is quite good too – especially Hess at $30 or above! Luki is a beast and in the right spot for the Cows too – these two plays should be exciting to follow.
Both hookers have a strong running game – we love Robson at $41 & Walters at $51 to score the first try. Our Premium members got really good first, second or third try scorer members earlier in the week but unfortunately they’ve now been crunched in.
Tom Flegler scored the first try against the Titans a few weeks ago paying $85 – he’s around the same price today and we’re happy to call him a value play this time after missing out when he got over! Jason Taumalolo at $61 or higher to score the first or last try (he’s currently $71 for FTS) is great value. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown isn’t a household NRL name but he does have a good running game and $81 or higher for him to crash over first in the 2nd half is a good price against a relatively inexperienced Broncos bench.
Dolphins v Knights
Sat 5/8, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Greg Marzhew & Dom Young** FTS @ $8.50 on Betr
Tyson Gamble FTS & LTS @ $34 on Dabble and a couple of other bookies. ATS @ $5.50 on Neds. (This won – Gamble ATS)
Jackson Hastings & Anthony Milford** ATS @ $6.40 on Neds (Avoid Milford – he’s now benched)
Kodi Nikorima FTS @ $29 on Neds
Mark Nicholls FTS @ $67 & LTS @ $61 on Bet Right
Herman Ese’ese FTS2H @ $71 on Sportsbet
Jarrod Wallace FTS2H @ $51 on Bet Right & Sportsbet, TAB
Tyson Frizell ATS @ $4.60 on Neds
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky Preview Sat 5/8 – Gamble’s now $41 for FTS on Betr, he’s still $34 for LTS on Sportsbet & Pointsbet. Nikorima’s $26 for FTS on Bet Right, 365 & Neds which is still decent value. Marzhew & Young are both $9 for FTS on gameday – which we love. Hastings is still $6.40 on Neds and Milford is now $6.25 at best on Betr. Nicholls is still $61 for FTS on Bet Right and $61 for FTS & LTS on Pointsbet. Jarrod Wallace and Herman Ese’ese are $51 and $71 on Sportsbet and a couple of other bookies for First Try Scorer 2nd half (FTS2H). We’ve also added Tyson Frizell ATS @ $4.60.
Marzhew & Young have been on fire for the Knights and are clearly higher priced than our model and most bookies think they should be. The anytime try scorer prices for Hastings, Gamble & Frizell are similar – all significantly higher priced than our model would price them at (our model takes the expected line and total and other factors in).
Gamble at $41 for FTS is a great price – our model has him priced around $26 and most bookies have him at $34 or less. Nikorima is now a marginal value pick – around 10% higher than what our model thins he should be priced at for FTS.
Nicholls, Wallace & Ese’ese are three of our favourite players for try scorer picks. This week – we can concede the Knights’ backline looks better but both forward packs should match up well and the game’s being played at a neutral venue (Perth). Marshall-King is also back, he’s excellent at putting middle forwards over. Nicholls and Wallace we’d play at $51 or higher and Ese’ese at $61 or higher – for the markets we’ve quoted above (starters we usually play for FTS & LTS, bench players we usually get on for FTS2H).
Rabbitohs v Sharks
Sat 5/8, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Isaiah Tass** ATS @ $3.25 on Neds (This won)
Wade Graham** ATS @ $9 on Neds. FTS @ $67 on Neds**
Blayke Brailey FTS & LTS @ $67 on 365
Braden Uele FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet Right & Bet365
Tom Hazelton FTS2H @ $51 on Bet Right & a few other bookies
Braydon Trindall** FTS & LTS @ $51 on 365
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky Preview Sat 5/8 – Graham and Tass are still the same price for ATS, we’ve also added Graham FTS @ $67 as a pick. Trindall’s now at $41 for FTS & LTS which we think is OK value. Brailey’s $56 for FTS and $61 for LTS on Sportsbet which we still really like. Uele is around $51 now for FTS & LTS – which is still OK value, we love anything at $61 or higher. Hazelton is $61 on Sportsbet for FTS2H which we love.
Graham and Tass are two of our model’s favourite picks this game – clear value and luckily the same price on Neds. Brailey isn’t amazing value but we think Souths aren’t as good as everyone thinks they are and the Sharks aren’t as bad! We love anything at $61 or above for Brailey for FTS, LTS etc but the $56 for FTS is good enough to take for now.
Braden Uele & Tom Hazelton are both try scoring beasts. Uele has a proven record whereas Hazelton has burst out of nowhere to be one of our favourites this year! Uele scores a try one in ever 6.7 NRL games. Hazelton’s scored 2 in 15 NRL games. In limited minutes in a stacked Sharks pack. And he could easily have had two more. We love these guys at $51 or higher (for FTS and FTS2H respectively as Uele’s starting and Hazelton’s on the bench).
Eels v Dragons
Sun 6/8, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Mikaele Ravalawa ATS @ $2.38 on Betr & FTS @ $14 on Bet Right (Not only did ATS win but Rava scored 4 tries!)
Will Penisini** ATS @ $2.55 on Neds
Jacob Liddle** FTS & LTS @ $51 on 365
Frank Molo** FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365 + Sportsbet
Michael Molo FTS2H @ $67 on Sportsbet, TAB & Neds (starting now – $101 for FTS & LTS on 365, don’t bet on FTS2H)
1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer** – Ben Hunt ($13 – SB), Talatau Amone ($17 – Neds) Billy Burns ($17 – SB)
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky Preview Sun 6/8 – Ravalawa is now $2.50 & $15 for ATS & FTS respectively on Betr. Penisini’s $2.50 on Neds to score anytime. Liddle’s still $51 for FTS & LTS on 365 (FTS also on Neds & Betr). We’d play Frank Molo at $71 or above – he’s currently $81 & $71 for FTS & LTS respectively on Sportsbet. Michael Molo (named on the bench) is still $67 on Neds to score the first try in the 2nd half (FTS2H). We’ve also added
The Eels get Dylan Brown back and the Dragons are missing Jack de Belin & Moses Suli on top of a couple of other players who were already missing. The Eels are strong favourites and unsurprisingly, this means a lot of the value in this game is with the Dragons! Mikaele Ravalawa has scored in 5 of his last 7 games. This includes games where Ben Hunt was missing, they were big outsiders and they haven’t been fancied by the punters! Lomax has been in great form inside him and just like the Rabbitohs yesterday – we don’t think sides can just flick on a switch and get back to their best in one game! Will Penisini has been impressive in 2023 – he’s priced at $2.12 by our model and most bookies have him priced around there. So we think the $2.50 on Neds for him to score anytime is clear value.
Frank Molo scored the first try for us at $71 just last week! We like the $71-81 for him to score first or last and his brother Michael Molo running at Parramatta’s noticeably weaker bench forwards for FTS2H. Liddle, Hunt, Burns & Amone are all value at the prices quoted above but if you think the Eels are likely to dominate – maybe only pick out a couple of the picks you like the most. Hunt and Amone both have good running games & Liddle loves a scoot from dummy half. Burns looks like a rangy strong ball runner similar to Josh Dugan – a price similar to $51 for FTS for him is juicy for someone with his potential.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
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