Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 22 of the 2023 NRL season. We’re coming off one of our best rounds for 2023 where we nailed four try scorers between $41 & $81 as well as a few any time try scorer picks!
Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.
Round 20 of the #NRL was our worst of the season. Rd21 was arguably our best 🔥 Aloiai First Try Scorer (FTS) $71s, Mat Croker FTS2H @ $81, Reynolds & Moses LTS @ $41 and there were a few more too👀
Our Discord, previews/tips & OCT are all free to suss👇https://t.co/Bi2TlLBxe9 pic.twitter.com/Ya62n72fxb
— Wicky (@wickyai) July 25, 2023
Bulldogs v Dolphins
Sun 30/7, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jacob Preston** FTS @ $29 on Bet Right
Jamayne Isaako** FTS @ $10 on Betr
Jesse Bromwich** FTS @ $67 on Sportsbet
Herman Ese’ese FTS2H @ $61 on Bet Right
Kodi Nikorima** FTS @ $26 on Bet Right
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky’s preview (Updated Thu 27/7) – Our model and most bookies have Isaako priced between $8-9 to score the first try. The Dolphins get Marshall-King back which means they play with O’Sullivan, Nikorima, Tabuai-Fidow and Marshall-King together for one of the first times this year. We think Isaako could be the beneficiary of this new found chemistry for the Dolphins.
Jesse Bromwich is now $71 to score the first try on Sportsbet which we love – our model, his career strike rate and most bookies have him priced around $50-55 so the $71 is a standout value pick. Marshall-King is also excellent at putting middle forwards over for a try – like he has done for Nicholls and Wallace this season! We’ve added Preston as a value pick at $29 to score first – he’s a great line runner and the $29 on Bet Right is a standout price.
Update Sun 30/7 – Herman Ese’ese is now $61 for FTS2H on Sportsbet – has a great strike rate at FTS2H & against a weak Bulldogs pack + Marshall-King is great at putting middle forwards over. Jesse Bromwich is $61 for FTS on Sportsbet which we still like. Isaako is still $11 on Betr and Nikorima is $23 for FTS on Bet Right & a couple of other bookies which we still like.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Titans v Cowboys
Sun 30/7, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Reece Robson** FTS @ $31 on Bet Right,Dabble & Sportsbet + 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $11 on Sportsbet
Kieran Foran** FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet Right & Bet365
Jordan McLean** FTS @ $81 on Bet Right (Playing Titans with no Tino)
Jamayne Taunoa-Brown FTS2H @ $81 on Bet Right (Playing Titans with no Tino)
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky’s preview (Updated Thu 27/7) – Foran & McLean are two of our model’s favourite first try scorer picks for this weekend! Foran’s priced at $40 or less by our model and most bookies – the $51 is a standout price and we love it for last try scorer as well.
Jordan McLean is not someone who we would usually tip in try scorer markets – but the Titans’ middle is struggling without Tino. They conceded tries to Fletcher Baker and Lindsay Collins last week. We think the Cowboys will put on a clinic against a Titans side who unfortunately have very little they can get out of 2023 now.
Update Sun 30/7 – Foran is still $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 – it’s great model value and he’s considerably higher than other bookies at $51. McLean is now $67 at best for FTS which is OK value at best – we wouldn’t take anything lower. Taunoa-Brown or any Cows bench forwards could be a good pick running at a Titans bench with a hooker, a fullback, a 2nd rower and a rookie middle forward. We loved the $81 for him before but the $61 is still OK for him to score the first try in the 2nd half.
Reece Robson at $31 FTS and $11 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer is an excellent price – he’s scored the first try in games one in every 22 NRL games! The Titans’ season is all but over – we love the Robson pick.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Broncos v Roosters
Thu 27/7, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Sandon Smith ATS @ $9.50, Team FTS & LTS on $23 on Sportsbet & Betr ** Adding 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $20 on Sportsbet
Reece Walsh** ATS @ $3 on Neds/Ladbrokes (played wing for a part of their last game)
Billy Walters** FTS @ $51 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Tom Flegler FTS @ $71 on Bet Right
Victor Radley** 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $19 on Sportsbet
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky’s preview (Updated Thu 27/7) – Sandon Smith has been OK for the Roosters so far in his rookie year, however, this is a case of playing the number. He’s great value at $51 or higher for First Try Scorer (FTS), FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) or LTS. Our official plays will be the ones listed above but if you find him at $51 or higher for these markets or $8 or higher for ATS – it’s great value. These odds are likely to be on Sportsbet, Betr & Playup. You can check our odds comparison tool to find the best price for him.
Reece Walsh looked electric last week in his return against the Rabbitohs. What was most interesting though, is that he spent some time on the wing when Selwyn Cobbo took over the reigns at fullback. Our model and most bookies have him priced at $2.50-2.75 – and that’s with him being named at fullback. We love the $3 on Neds for him to score anytime with the chance that he spends some time on the wing again as an added bonus.
Tom Flegler is now $65 on Topsport to score the first try – we think this is still OK but anything lower and we’d stay away. With our value picks, it’s important to try to get on earlier in the week as a lot of the best prices are gone by game day! Billy Walters is still $51 to score first on Neds which we love – our model and most bookies have him priced at $42 or below. Clear value pick. He’s had 5 linebreaks and scored 2 tries this year.
Wests Tigers v Rabbitohs
Fri 28/7, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Luke Brooks** ATS @ $11, FTS @ $71 on Bet Right. Added FTS2H & LTS @ $61 on Sportsbet
Lachy Ilias** ATS @ $4.75 on Bet Right
Stefano Utoikmanu** ATS @ $12, FTS @ $71 on Bet Right. LTS @ $71 on Sportsbet
Api Koroisau** FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Siliva Havili** FTS2H @ $67 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Aitasi James FTS2H @ $81 on Bet Right & TAB
David Klemmer FTS @ $151 on Bet Right (only take at $126 or higher)
Hame Sele** FTS @ $67 on Betr
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky’s preview (Updated Thu 27/7) – Souths are expected to blow the Tigers away. We’re not saying it won’t happen but they might take some time to click into gear with Trell returning. Brooks & Ilias are clear value picks at the prices quoted above – Brooks would be a great play at $61 & $9 or higher for FTS/LTS/FTS2H & ATS respectively. We’ll leave the official picks above and send through price updates on game day.
Api Koroisau has scored 4 tries in limited minutes and games this season for a struggling Tigers side. We love the $51 for him first or last try scorer (two separate markets) on Bet365. Stefano Utoikamanu is paying $67 for FTS & LTS on Dabble – we love this price for someone who scores a try one in every 6.25 NRL games he plays. He’s still $10 to score anytime on Sportsbet and TAB.
Siliva Havili & Aitasi James are still $67 (Neds) and $81 (TAB) to score the first try in the 2nd half. Havili is playing for the significantly stronger team and is a strong ball runner. James is a hunch pick of ours – we love his body size and running style. We would take these guys at $61 and $71 or higher for the FTS2H market.
Update Fri 28/7, 11am – We’ve added Sele at $67 for FTS – it’s our model’s favourite pick for FTS in this game and clearly better odds than other bookies. Ilias & Brooks are still available at great odds. If we name backs for a good value pick for FTS (eg. Brooks at $71) – if they’re almost the same price (eg. $67 for FTS2H, LTS etc) we’d also recommend getting on these and maybe splitting the stakes with smaller amounts. We just will officially only count what we’ve tipped here to our bets tracker.
Koroisau, Havili, James are all available at the same prices. Utoikamanu is as well – we’d play him at $9 ATS or higher and $61 FTS/LTS etc or higher. Klemmer is fine to play at $126 or higher.
Storm v Eels
Fri 28/7, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Sean Russell** ATS @ $2.65 on Bet Right (added FTS & LTS @ $15 on Bet Right) This won – Russell scored the first try @ $15!
Christian Welch** FTS @ $91 on Bet Right
Harry Grant** FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365 (Our Premium members had Grant 3rd try @ $29 on TAB which won)
Okahifi Ogden & Junior Paulo** FTS @ $81 on Bet Right
Brendan Hands** 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $19 on Sportsbet
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky’s preview (Updated Thu 27/7) – Sean Russell is now $2.75 to score on Bet Right whilst the other 3 plays have been crunched in and are no longer clearly value picks. Russell is priced between $2.10-2.50 by our model, other bookies and his career strike rate. The $2.75 to score anytime seems a great price for Russell who’s playing outside of Mitch Moses and Penisini on the Eels’ right edge. He’s also $15 for FTS & LTS on Bet Right which we love – he’s priced at $12-13 by our model and most bookies.
Update Fri 28/7, 11am – Russell is still great odds on Bet Right. We think Welch is OK value at $71 for FTS on Sportsbet still. Grant’s been crunched in for FTS/LTS, the $4.25 is better value than FTS/LTS now. Ogden & Paulo at $67 for FTS & LTS are still decent value on Dabble and a couple of other bookies. Hands at $19 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer is still there and we really like the price here for him.
Raiders v Knights
Sat 29/7, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Dane Gagai ATS @ $4.75 on Bet Right
Greg Marzhew ATS @ $2 on Neds/Ladbrokes (This won – Marzhew scored)
Dom Young** ATS @ $1.94 on Topsport (This won – Young scored)
Tyson Gamble** FTS @ $51 on Bet Right
Leo Thompson FTS @ $91 on Bet Right
Jacob Saifiti FTS @ $81, LTS @ $71 on Bet Right
Adam Elliott FTS @ $71, LTS @ $61 on Bet Right (Playing v his old team, Knights and him both in good form)
Emre Guler** FTS2H @ $61 on Bet Right
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky’s preview (Updated Thu 27/7) – Marzhew & Young are $2 and $1.90 on Neds which we still love. The Knights have the highest % of tries scored by wingers in 2023. Gagai is widely available at $4.25 to score anytime which is still good value. These 3 are in the top 4 value picks for our model for this game.
Gamble, Thompson, Saifiti, Elliott & Guler are all 10-20% lower now than the prices we quoted earlier in the week. They might pop up at better prices on game day on Bet Right who have been pretty competitive with try scorer prices over the last few weeks!
Update Sat 29/7 – Marzhew, Gagai & Young are still roughly the same price and we still love the value there. Thompson is now $101 FTS on Sportsbet which we clearly like (he was tipped at $91 FTS). Gamble is widely available at $41 FTS which we still like. Saifiti and Elliott are $71 and $61 for FTS respectively on Sportsbet which we still like. Their best prices for LTS are also on Sportsbet – $67 and 61, which we also like. Guler is now $41 at best for FTS2H which is not good value anymore.
Dragons v Manly
Sat 29/7, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Blake Lawrie, Francis Molo & Jack De Belin FTS @ $71-81 on Bet Right (Manly pack missing Aloiai and Paseka) Francis Molo scored the first try at $65-71!!
Mikaele Ravalawa** ATS @ $2.10 on Bet Right (added $12 for FTS on Betr)
Junior Amone FTS @ $41 on Bet Right (added $41 lts on 365)
Michael Molo FTS2H @ $71 on Bet Right
Jack Bird FTS2H @ $41 on Neds (Void – ruled out)
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky’s preview (Updated Thu 27/7) – Ravalawa is now best at $2.05 on Betr. With Lomax looking good in recent weeks and the Dragons coming off a win and Ravalawa getting a try on one leg, we like him up against Manly this week. Our model and his career strike rate would have him priced at $1.86 – so we like anything above $2 for him.
Lawrie, Molo & De Belin are paying $75, $65 and $56 respectively on Topsport. We think this is OK value but anything lower and we’d stay away.
Michael Molo is still $67 for FTS2H on Neds which we really like up against a Manly pack missing Paseka and Aloiai. Jack Bird is still $41 to score the first try in the 2nd half which we love – there’s a chance he could come on to play on an edge.
Update Sat 29/7 – Ravalawa’s still $2.10 anytime on Bet365 and $12 on Betr which we love. Amone is $41 for FTS & LTS on 365 which we also like. Molo is still $67 for FTS2H on Neds. Lawrie, Frank Molo and de Belin are the same odds on Topsport which we still really like up against a Manly pack missing Paseka and Aloiai.
Panthers v Sharks
Sat 29/7, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Cam McInness, Toby Rudolf & Oregon Kaufusi** FTS & LTS @ $101-111 on Dabble/Topsport/Sportsbet
Sione Katoa** ATS @ $3.15 on Neds
Ronaldo Mulitalo** ATS @ $3 on Betr
Cam McInnes** ATS @ $21 on Bet Right
Blayke Brailey & Nicho Hynes** FTS @ $71 & $51 on Bet Right (Brailey LTS @ $67 added also)
Tom Hazelton FTS2H @ $61 on Bet Right & Pointsbet
We’ll add more picks closer to game time on our Free Discord channel!
Wicky’s preview (Updated Thu 27/7) – We’ve added the 3 Sharks starting middle as FTS picks. We generally think if these guys are paying $101 or higher, they’re worth a play against the Panthers. Tom Hazelton is $61 to score the first try in the 2nd half which we love also given his recent try scoring form.
Our model has the Sharks wingers Katoa & Mulitalo priced at $2.30. Their career strike rates would have them priced around $1.80-1.95. You can see why we love them at $3-3.15. We would take them at $2.80 or more which is still available on most sites.
Brailey is $67 to score the first or last try on Bet365 which we really like – most other sites have him below $60 and he’s had a strong season in 2023.
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
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