July 2022 was our best month since we started this website in mid-2020! We almost doubled our usual website traffic and members in our Discord group. And it was clear to see why. After tipping three players between $67-101 in Round 18, we tipped Luke Keary ($41) & Jack Murchie ($51) to score the first try in Round 19! In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best value NRL tips across try scorer & player performance markets. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!
Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!
Bulldogs v Cowboys
Sunday 7th August, 2pm
Try Scorer Tips
Kyle Flanagan ATS @ $11 on TAB
Jeremiah Nanai ATS @ $2.6 on Neds
Tom Gilbert FTS @ $31 on Pointsbet
Tevita Pangai-Junior 2nd TS & LTS @ $81 on TAB
Update Sun 7/8 – TPJ is still available at a good price on TAB for 2nd & 3rd try scorer ($67-81), LTS ($81) & FTS or LTS team ($31). He’s looked great with ball in hand close to the line and even though the Cowboys are the better team on paper, the Dogs’ style of play means he’ll at least have some opportunities near the line.
Gilbert is available at $34 to score the first try on TAB now which is great value for someone who’s done it twice already this season. He has been starting on the edge then moving into the middle for Luciano Leilua so we only like him for the FTS market. Flanagan is still the same price for ATS and we’re going to back our model with this pick although he hasn’t necessarily looked great with ball in hand.
Nanai has been crunched in and is now priced around $2. He may yet score a try but we won’t be suggesting this as a value play at that price.
You can find our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Tabuai-Fidow and Averillo are great value picks to start building your line up priced under $10k. Both are explosive ball runners with the potential to wrack up a lot of running metres if they can get involved in one or two big attacking plays.
There are 8 players with ceiling ranges (average of their 3 highest DFS scores in 2022) higher than 70 points in this contest. We think Cotter is a fade option today. Still coming back from a hamstring injury that ruled him out of the game for over two months, he’s unlikely to score too many more points above the 42 our model has him projected for. He’ll be reliable in defence for the Cowboys but that’s not what will win you 1st prize in this contest.
Kiraz and Addo-Carr seem like great value picks here. Both in great form for the Bulldogs and have the capacity to score tries and wrack up the run metres even if the Bulldogs can’t get the upset win against the Cowboys. Depending on how many lineups you have, picking these two wingers with Burton and Averillo could form the base of a great contrarian lineup.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Wests Tigers v Knights
Sunday 7th August, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Tips
Jacob & Daniel Saifiti FTS/LTS @ $67 on most sites
Fa’amanu Brown FTS @ $34 on TAB
Brent Naden FTS @ $9.25 on Sportsbet
Update Sun 7/8 – Jacob and Daniel Saifiti are still available at $67 for FTS/LTS and we still think they are good value picks. The Knights’ pack is missing David Klemmer, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Kurt Mann and they’ll need to lead from the front.
The two other plays that we think are reasonable value are Fa’amanu Brown FTS @ $34 on TAB and Brent Naden at $9.25 on Sportsbet as first try scorer picks. Brown has been in excellent try scoring form in the last few weeks for the much improved Tigers and Naden is priced favourably against his historical strike rate playing on the Tigers’ left wing.
You can find our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Looking at the players priced under $11k, Jock Madden, Phoenix Crossland and Brent Naden look like the best value picks. Madden has done reasonably well from a DFS perspective when he’s started for the Tigers. With Doueihi being in great form, this should help Madden as he can just manage his own game up against arguably the worst team in the NRL at the moment. Naden is on the Tigers’ left wing and scored 50 points only a couple of weeks ago. And the reason we like Crossland is with Mann, Klemmer and Fitzgibbon out, there are a lot of minutes and DFS points up for grabs on the Knights bench. With Sasagi and Saulo unlikely to play big minutes, we think Crossland could score 30+ again which would be a good outcome for someone priced at $9k.
There are only 3 players with a ceiling range over 70 points in this contest. Out of them, we think Gagai is an option to fade and Doueihi is a must-have in your side. With Hastings gone for the season, we also think Ofahengaue is close to a lock. Doueihi has a 99 and 78 in his last 3 games and with Hastings and Brooks out of the side, all of the Tigers’ attack will go through him. He’s also goal-kicking so if the Tigers do win well against the struggling Knights, he’s got a lot of upside.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Roosters v Broncos
Thursday 4th August, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Tips
Ezra Mam Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $4.8 on Sportsbet
Joseph Manu ATS @ $2.5 on Pointsbet
Sam Walker ATS @ $4.9 on Sportsbet
Adam Reynolds FTS/LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Manu is the best value play for this game in anytime try scorer markets according to our model. He’s arguably the most in-form player in the NRL at the moment so we didn’t need much convincing to suggest him as a standout pick at $2.50 to score a try anytime.
Sam Walker is priced noticeably higher (4.90) than his career strike rate would suggest he should be and most other bookmakers have him under $4. In a Roosters team with Tedesco, Manu & Keary around him, he’ll be able to play his natural game so we love this price for Walker.
Mam is priced similarly ($4.80) which is comfortably more than our model thinks he should be priced at ($3.88). We think he’s also a great play at $26 or better for 2nd half first try scorer or last try scorer markets. Against an understrength Roosters pack – running at tired or inexperienced forwards, we think he could create havoc and have no hesitation suggesting him as a value play at $4.80 on Sportsbet.
Continuing on our trend of liking halves in this game, we’re going with Adam Reynolds @ $41 to score the first or last try in this game. Just to clarify – these are two separate plays. We think the last try scorer pick is a better one, similar to Mam, we can see him going over against a tired Roosters pack.
You can find our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
How can you not pick Joseph Manu? Scores of 81, 119 and 77 in his last three games and he’s been playing a calf niggle too. Manu, Tedesco, Reynolds & Haas are the four players in this contest priced over $20k and also have the highest ceiling range (average of their 3 highest DFS scores in 2022). We think Manu and Haas (more minutes without Carrigan) are the two standout picks here.
Selwyn Cobbo returns for the Broncos after his brutal concussion in the Origin decider. Kotoni Staggs and Cobbo are priced really well (both under $15k) the two players with the next highest ceiling ranges in this contest. If you think the Broncos can bounce back after their horrible performance against the Tigers last weekend, then going with the Broncos’ right edge backs in Reynolds, Staggs & Cobbo may be the way to start building your lineup for tonight’s $20,000 contest.
Looking at value picks, Momirovski ($9,000), Mam ($11,170) & Hetherington ($11,220) stand out at a good price range. Pat Carrigan is missing the next four weeks for the Broncos and Hetherington takes his starting lock role. Up against Victor Radley, we expect to see Hetherington put on a big performance and he could easily go over the 36 points our model has him projected for. Mam has been scoring reasonably in recent weeks but he’s a live-wire that could comfortably crack 40 points with one big attacking play against an understrength Roosters pack, especially when their bench forwards are on. Momirovski is on the Roosters’ left edge which was in red hot form last weekend. Priced at $9,000 we think picking him is a great way to start building your lineup.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Storm v Titans
Friday 5th August, 6pm
Try Scorer Tips
Sosefo (Jojo) Fifita FTS/LTS @ $21 on Bet365
David Fifita ATA @ $5 on Neds
Tino Faasumaleuai FTS/LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Herman Ese’ese FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $101 on TAB
Erin Clark 2nd TS/LTS @ $81 on TAB
Clark has been in excellent form over the last three rounds since moving to a middle forward role with Aaron Booth taking over the hooker role for the Titans. He should be on at the start and end of the game, so we’ve decided to suggest him as a great pick at $81 to score the 2nd or last try of the game at $81 on TAB (he’s been crunched in for FTS).
Jojo Fifita is priced noticeably better on 365 ($21) than other sites and with Olam out for the Storm on their left edge and their right edge having defensive frailties most weeks, we think this is a great pick. David Fifita has been playing on the left edge for the Titans and comes up against that Storm right edge which conceded three tries to Ed Kosi last week, so we love the $5 on offer for him to score a try anytime on Neds!
Herman Ese’ese is one of those players who isn’t a consistent, high-quality NRL player but can get the job done from a try scoring perspective. The $101 price is good value for someone who’s scored the first try in the second half 4 times in 103 games.
You can find our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
There are rumours that Cam Munster might play fullback, in which case Tyran Wishart would be benched. Whichever one out of Wishart or Cooper Johns starts will be great value at $10,000 or $9,000 respectively. Aaron Booth is starting at hooker for the Titans and is also a good value pick at $9,000. Sosefo (Jojo) Fifita had a quiet game last weekend but he ran for over 200 metres in his first game so he could be another cheap pick-up that allows you to spend big on premiums elsewhere in your lineup.
Erin Clark is our standout pick for this contest. With a ceiling range of 70 and scores of 76, 64 & 46 his improved running game playing at lock has been evident in his DFS scores. With the uncertainty around Munster’s role and Brandon Smith back, you may need to think twice before choosing Munster or Grant in your lineups. Grant has played 70+ minutes and 50+ DFS points in his last 5 games, three of them without Brandon Smith in the lineup. Up against the bottom ranked Titans and with Smack back in the Storm lineup, we think he may get less minutes and therefore worth avoiding in your lineups.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Manly v Eels
Friday 5th August, 7.55pm
Try Scorer Tips
Kieran Foran FTS @ $41 on TAB/Neds/Pointsbet
Reagan Campbell-Gillard FTS @ $81 on Neds
Kieran Foran goes up against Parramatta’s right side edge defence with Mitchell Moses missing. He’s also our model’s best value pick for this game at $41 to score the first try in this one.
RCG has been in good form this season, even though he was left out of the Blues’ side after Game 1. We think the $81 is a good price for someone like RCG who has a strong running game and will know he needs to step up early.
You can find our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Jakob Arthur averaged 20 tackles and 54 run metres in his 7 games playing in the halves in 2021. He also scored 2 tries in that time. Priced at $9,000 we think he’s a great pickup for your side. There have been rumours that Gutherson might move to the halves, in which case he obviously becomes one to avoid.
There are four players in this contest with a ceiling range over 80 points. Two of them are DCE & Haumole Olakau’atu playing on the right side for the Sea Eagles. This could be a great way to start building your lineup, especially if you think Manly will do well against an Eels side missing Mitch Moses.
Dylan Brown will definitely need to take on more responsibility with Moses out, so we think he would be a good selection in this contest. However, we’re going with Papali’i as an option to fade in this contest. Missing Moses on the right side edge for the Eels, he’ll likely get less opportunities to crash over for a try which limits his upside.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Rabbitohs v Warriors
Saturday 6th August, 3pm
Try Scorer Tips
Addin Fonua-Blake FTS/LTS @ $101 on TAB
Bunty Afoa FTS2H @ $101 on TAB
Jack Murchie FTS @ $51 on Neds/365
It was only a few weeks ago when we successfully tipped Jack Murchie to score the first try at $51. He’s the same price against the Rabbitohs and we think he’s great value again. We’re not saying the Warriors will be competitive against a red hot Rabbitohs side, however Murchie has been in great form on the right side with Shaun Johnson alongside him. He’s also priced way better on Neds & Bet365 than most other bookies where he’s priced at $41 or less.
AFB & Afoa are two of our favourite forwards for try scorer markets and are priced well for FTS/LTS & FTS2H respectively. If AFB’s odds go down from $101, we recommend looking at 2nd TS or LTS where he still may be $101.
Update 6/8 – AFB is now much shorter odds on TAB but you can find him at $91 on Sportsbet which we still think is a great value play. Afoa is still $101 to score the first try in the 2nd half on Neds. Murchie is $51 for the first and last try on Bet365. He’s also still $51 for the first try on Neds. There’s a chance he may not play the full 80, so we think FTS is a better play but definitely still worth a small stake on LTS.
You can find our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Souths are 18 point favourites in this contest so Paulo and Thompson at $9,000 would be a great way to start building your lineup. Freddy Lussick and Daniel Fifita are also priced under $10,000 and are in the starting forward packs for their respective sides so they would also be good options.
There are seven players with a ceiling range (average of their 3 highest DFS scores in 2022) in this contest. Aitken has been named in the centres & Tatola would need tries to hit his ceiling range which is unsustainable as a prop. That leaves Cook, Johnson, Murray, Latrell & Walker. With the Warriors being such big underdogs in this game and playing away from home, we think Shaun Johnson is a definite fade option.
Out of the other four high ceiling range options, Latrell and Walker seem the best two picks. It’s a 3pm game and if Souths do wrack up the points, they’ll be right in the action. Whereas Cook and Murray may have the odd attacking play but will struggle for base stats if it’s a free-flowing game.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Starting to make a habit out of these 😅 Murchie gets over at $51 to score the first try 🔥🔥 https://t.co/a2ThqvwxVS
— Wicky (@wickyai) July 23, 2022
Raiders v Panthers
Saturday 6th August, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Tips
Elliott Whitehead FTS @ $51 on Neds
Jamal Fogarty FTS/LTS @ $51 on TAB
Adam Elliott LTS @ $67 and 1st/2nd/3rd try @ $26 on TAB
Corey Harawira-Naera LTS @ $34 on Bet365
CHN has been coming off the bench to play on the edge for the Raiders. $34 is an excellent price for him to score the last try given his excellent ability to hit a hole at speed close to the line.
Adam Elliott has been in great form for the Raiders. Anything above $61 for him we would think is great value.
Fogarty and Whitehead are great value according to our model and Whitehead gets the rare ‘three green lights’ being great historical value and much better odds on Neds than other bookies.
Update 6/8 – Fogarty and Whitehead are priced around $35 to score the first try by our model so the $51 is clear value here. We also love this matchup because they are on the Raiders’ right edge up against a left edge for the Panthers missing Kikau and Luai. CHN takes Whitehead’s right edge role later in the game so we love the $29 on offer for him to score the last try on Bet365.
Adam Elliott is $58 to score the first try and $67 to score the 2nd or 3rd try on TAB which we still think is great value.
You can find our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Chris Smith has been named in Kikau’s left edge position and is a good value pick at $9,890. Salmon & Hopoate are also priced under $10,000 and will be good value picks if they can score around 30 which our model has them projected for.
There are only four players with a ceiling range above 70 in this contest. We talk about him most weeks, but Joe Tapine is arguably the form forward in the NRL at the moment and it’s hard to talk people out of including him in their lineups given his last 3 scores include a 69 and 102! With both Panthers’ halves out, we think Isaah Yeo is also a good pick up as he’ll have his hands on the ball in good attacking field position and will need to do more defence than usual also.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
Sharks v Dragons
Saturday 6th August, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Tips
Braden Uele FTS @ $54 & ATS @ $9.25 on Topsport
Francis Molo FTS2H @ $81 on TAB
Josh McGuire FTS @ $67 and ATS @ $11 on Playup
Uele is one of the best middle forwards for try scoring strike rate and with Hunt & Finucane missing, should get more minutes for the Sharks.
Update 6/8 – McGuire’s price won’t last but he’s still priced as a bench middle forward when he’s now starting in the 2nd row for Billy Burns.
We still love Uele and Molo and they are close to the same price.
You can find our free odds comparison tool here.
NRL Draftstars Advice
Kade Dykes has big wraps on him and he must be highly regarded in the club after keeping Lachlan Miller, who ran for almost 300 metres in his debut, out of the side. He’s priced at $9,000 and we think he’s almost a must have at that price against the underwhelming Dragons. Braden Uele is also priced under $10,000 and will get more minutes with Finucane and Royce Hunt both missing. We think he’s also a good value pick in this contest.
With a few good value cheapies in this game, we think Hynes and Ramien are great picks even though they’ll cost you over $41,000 of your salary cap! They are 2 of the 6 players who have a ceiling range over 70 in this contest, however, we think they will be well worth it and we’d recommend picking them in the the same lineups as they both play on the Sharks’ right side.
We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.
Player Performance Markets
You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.
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