Punter’s Preview NRL Round 19

Punter’s Preview NRL Round 19

Last weekend was incredible. We tipped Victor Radley to score the first try ($67), Connor Watson to score the first try in the 2nd half ($101) & James Fisher-Harris to score the last try ($81) all in the space of 24 hours! We also found a few players who weren’t originally named to start at great odds when news broke they would be starting. In this article, we’ll aim to find you the best value NRL tips across try scorer & player performance markets. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, check out the article we’ve written to help you out here. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!

Our data tools and previews will help you identify where the value lies but as always, we’d love to see what you think so follow us on social media or join our discord channel if you’d like to discuss all things NRL Draftstars, sports betting or just chat footy with other fans!

Bulldogs v Titans

Sunday 24th July, 2pm

Try Scorer Tips

Josh Jackson FTS @ $81 on Bet365

Patrick Herbert FTS/LTS @ $34 on TAB

AJ Brimson FTS/LTS @ $26 & ATS @ $3.90 on Bet365

Tino Faasumaleuai FTS/LTS @ $51 on Bet365

David Fifita ATS @ $3.90 on Neds

Beau Fermor FTS @ $29 & ATS @ $4.60 on Neds

Josh Jackson continue to be priced at middle forward odds even though he starts the game on an edge for the Bulldogs. He’s never been a dynamic ball runner but the $81 price for him to score to the first try is still good value. The Titans’ backrow of Fifita, Fermor & Faasumaleuai are all good value as well. Tino has the second best try scoring strike rate for any middle forward in the NRL. We’ve used a combination of our model’s projected odds, their historical strike rate and looking at this matchup against the Dogs to come up with these plays. You can read more about how to best use our odds comparison tool here.

Update 24/7 – Brimson has now been crunched in to $21 from $29 on Bet365. We recommend checking our odds comparison tool on Wednesday as the odds for plays like these where they are mis-priced by on bookmaker usually get crunched in by gameday. Fermor is stll available at $29 to score the 1st try on Bet365.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

Declan Casey has experienced the highs and lows of a career in professional sport, all in just two games! Two horrible moments & a concussion in game one. A great game including a stunning try in his second. He’s now named at full-back and is a great value pick at $9,000 in this DFS contest. Faitala-Mariner has been in great form and has been rewarded with a contract extension. He keeps being priced at a friendly $10-11,000 price range so he’s once again a great value pick. As are Tanah Boyd & Aaron Booth in the Titans’ spine.

Out of the higher priced options, Matt Burton looks the standout pick here. He had a reasonable game last weekend backing up after Origin and still scored 56 points. He has by far the highest ceiling range of anyone in this contest so we think he’s a great pick at $21,860.

Our player to fade in this contest is Josh Jackson. Priced at over $20k, we can safely say he doesn’t have the upside of a lot of the players around that price-tag and therefore we think it’s worth leaving him out of your lineup.

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Cowboys v Wests Tigers

Sunday 24th July, 4.05pm

Try Scorer Tips

Chad Townsend FTS/LTS @ $41 on Pointsbet

Fa’amanu Brown FTS @ $81 on Sportsbet

Luke Brooks FTS/LTS @ $67 on TAB

Update 24/7 – Realistically, the Cowboys should win this one comfortably. They can’t afford to lose games like these if they’re going to lock in 2nd position on the ladder. The only worry is Tamou’s 300th at his old home ground where he won a Premiership with North Queensland. But the Cowboys will be fresh and raring to go at home so unfortunately there’s not a lot of value plays in this one.

Brooks is still available at that price for FTS/LTS but he’s actually $81 to score the first try in the 2nd half which is an even better value play. Fa’amanu Brown has been running the ball a lot from hooker and has scored a couple of tries since his return to 1st grade this season. Anything above $71 on Sportsbet we think would be a good price.

Chad Townsend is our standout value pick for this game. Our model loves the $41 & $6 for him to score the first try and score anytime in this one. It’s hard to disagree with our model considering the Cowboys are such strong favourites, playing at home & with their Origin stars coming off a week’s break. Being up against a Tigers side with arguably a bottom two team on paper doesn’t hurt either.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

It’s reasonable to assume the Cowboys players are going to be popular in this contest. So let’s start off with having a look at the Tigers’ players. Fa’amanu Brown & Tuilagi are rated 9/10 in our value ratings when comparing their price to our model’s projected scores for them. They’ve both shown reasonable signs in attack so we’re happy to include them both as value plays for this contest.

Looking at the ceiling range – Jackson Hastings & Joe Ofahengaue actually have the most upside of any players in this contest if you go by the 2022 DFS scores. But if you look at last week’s scores, Hastings’ move to lock meant that Ofahengaue scored significantly less (39) as he was moved to the Prop rotation. Therefore, Ofahengaue is our option to fade in this game.

If you agree with most fans and think the Cowboys should win this one easily, let’s look at who has the highest ceiling ranges if they’re going to have a lot of attacking stats across the board. The first name that stands out is Val Holmes. He has the best ceiling range for any Cowboys player, he’s their goal-kicker and is priced at just $13,580.

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Eels v Broncos

Thursday 21 July, 7.50pm

Try Scorer Tips

Tesi Niu First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $23 & Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $4.20 on Neds

Oregon Kaufusi/Makahesi Makatoa FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $101 on TAB

Kurt Capewell FTS @ $41 on Neds

In a game without a lot of value in the try scorer markets, Niu & Capewell stand out as good picks for the much-improved Broncos. Niu’s anytime try scorer odds are noticeably better than what our model & his historical strike rate suggests they should be. Capewell & Niu’s odds to score the first try are more than 1.5x what they would be if you based it just on their career historical strike rate.

Kaufusi & Makatoa have been doing a good job for Parramatta. Up against the Broncos bench forwards, we think the $101 price is good value to score the first try in the 2nd half.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

There is a minimum $20,000 prize pool for Thursday night’s blockbuster clash between fifth & sixth on the NRL ladder. Given both teams are almost back to full strength, this should be a cracking game at CommBank Stadium. The winner gives themselves a chance of a top four finish. The loser could slip out of the top 6 and lose a chance to host a home final.

Both teams have superstars that are capable of cracking 80+ DFS points on their day. Aside from Arthur & Paix, both teams have 3 forwards on the bench who have done a great job for them over the Origin period. So instead of looking out for value picks, we’ve decided to look at the ceiling range (average of the player’s 3 highest scores in 2022) to see where you could get an edge.

Mitchell Moses has the highest projected score & ceiling range in this contest. His running game has been on point in recent weeks & he’ll be looking to prove a point playing at CommBank stadium against the much improved Broncos. The man outside him, Isaiah Papali’i, has also been in impressive form in 2022. You can see with both of their last three scores, given they are on the same edge, their scores do generally tend to be correlated. If you’re backing the Eels to have a big game, going with their two big guns could be a great way of starting to building your lineup. They’ve both also been in the news in relation to their contract situation. There’s always talk in Fantasy circles that players tend to have career years when their contracts are about to be negotiated. We think that’s another good omen for these two on the Eels’ right edge!

We think Ryan Matterson is a great option to fade (leave out of your team). He was in great form before his rib injury, but he hasn’t played for almost 5 weeks. Although our model has projected him to score 52 points, we think he could be eased back in and is unlikely to get close to his ceiling range given the form of the Eels’ pack in the time he was away. At his hefty price tag ($20,470), leaving him out could enable you to go with Moses & Papali’i for example who have been in excellent form in recent weeks.

 

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Dragons v Manly

Friday 22nd July, 6pm

Try Scorer Tips

Junior Amone FTS/LTS @ $41 on TAB

Haumole Olakau’atu ATS @ $2.95 on Sportsbet

Olakau’atu has been in scintillating form over the last couple of months. On Manly’s right side outside of DCE & up against a Dragons edge with Mbye & Billy Burns defending together, we love this matchup.

Amone has continued to improve throughout the 2022 season and we think the $41 on offer for him to score the first or last try (separate bets) is good value considering Manly are now missing Jake Trbojevic, Lachlan Croker & Andrew Davey.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

The Sea Eagles will be missing Jake Trbojevic, Andrew Davey & Lachlan Croker from their team last week. All three have been doing a great job for Manly. Look out for final teams to see who takes their starting roles. Regardless, we think Dylan Walker is a great pick in this contest. Priced at $11,010, he’ll be taking on much of the workload that Trbojevic & Croker would have gotten through. Weekes is a small body and unlikely to play much of the game at hooker even though he’s named there.

Josh Schuster is priced at $9,000. With Davey & Jake Trbojevic out, he’ll almost definitely get 50+ minutes. Even if Ben Trbojevic does start in the second row, Schuster should comfortably get over 30 points as he’ll have an increased role.

Keppie & Sipley are both under $10,000 and also good picks if you’ve spent most of your cap on the blue chip players in this contest. They’ll be getting more minutes and scoring more DFS points because of Manly’s three big outs in their forward pack. Especially Jake Trbojevic who usually plays 80 minutes at lock.

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Knights v Roosters

Friday 2nd July, 7,55pm

Try Scorer Tips

Anthony Milford FTS/LTS @ $51 on TAB & ATS @ $7.25 on Sportsbet

Daniel Saifiti FTS @ $85 on Topsport

Jacob Saifiti FTS2H @ $81 on TAB

We loved the Roosters last week in our Punter’s Preview & it definitely paid off with our tips Radley ($67) & Watson ($101) scoring the first try & first try in the 2nd half respectively! This week, given they are strong favourites, the value is with the Knights players. The Saifiti brothers are usually always at a good price and this week is no different. Jacob scored an impressive try in the Origin decider to show us what he’s capable of & Daniel is starting to hit his straps in 2022. We love the price on offer for them this weekend.

Milford has secured his future for the next few seasons at the Dolphins and will be keen to end 2022 on a high. He’s 124% or higher priced than our model, his historical strike rate and the next best bookie would suggest to score the first or last try at $51 on TAB. The $7.25 for him to score a try is also a great price according to our model.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

NRL Draftstars Advice

Joey Manu has been ruled out of the game due to a calf injury. He’s arguably been the Roosters’ best player this season, so it’ll have a big impact on them but also the DFS contest. James Tedesco’s ceiling range (86) is 13 points clear of the next best player. Walker & Keary’s ceiling ranges are 62. With it being Keary’s first game back and Manu missing, we think Tedesco will get a lot more ball and is almost a must-have in this contest.

Sam Walker is an option to fade in this one. With Keary out, he’s had a lot more touches than usual over the last 4 games. With Tedesco, Keary & Verrills around him, we think his opportunities to score significantly over the 50 points our model has projected him for will be minimal.

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Raiders v Warriors

Saturday 23rd July, 3pm

Try Scorer Tips

Elliott Whitehead FTS @ $34 on Neds & ATS @ $5.5

Shaun Johnson FTS/LTS @ $67 on TAB

Jamal Fogarty FTS/LTS @ $41 on Pointsbet

Hudson Young FTS/LTS @ $26 on Bet365

Adam Elliott FTS @ $51 on TAB

No surprises here with Whitehead, Fogarty, Young & Elliott selected as value plays in a game we expect the Raiders to dominate. They’re all great value according to our model & their historical try scoring strike rate. The Shaun Johnson pick is based on his historical strike rate but also his game-breaking performances against the Raiders in previous years! He may be past his prime but the $67 on TAB, especially for him to score the last try is a great price.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

NRL Draftstars Advice

There are a few backs from either team available at less than $11,000. They are priced fairly as none of them show great form or a massive ceiling range (average of 3 highest DFS scores in 2022). So usually we’d recommend going with OBs from the team that is the favourite or you think will do better on the day. The Raiders are strong favourites, are playing at home & need this win to stay in touch with the top 8.

Where this DFS contest gets really interesting is deciphering which of the high-scoring DFS stars to choose in your lineups. The Canberra forwards have been elite over the last two months and a key part of their resurgence. Players like Joseph Tapine & Adam Elliott especially will be popular picks and will no doubt do the job. But where we think you could potentially differentiate your lineups are the Warriors plays. Shaun Johnson’s DFS form has been impressive and he does well against the Raiders traditionally. Tohu Harris, Josh Curran & Euan Aitken have been in excellent DFS scoring form and have high ceiling ranges too.

So if you’re building multiple lineups, we see the Raiders cheap backs + in-form forwards as one ‘type’ of team. And the Warriors high ceiling range players such as Johnson, Aitken & Harris paired with their OBs under $10k as another style of team for this contest.

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Panthers v Sharks

Saturday 23rd July, 5.30pm

Try Scorer Tips

Ronaldo Mulitalo ATS @ $2.65 on Neds

Briton Nikora FTS @ $41 on Neds

Braden Uele & Cam McInnes FTS2H @ $81 on TAB

The Panthers have named their full strength line up & they should be raring to go after an Origin loss and a weekend off. Given they are strong favourites, the value is with the Sharks players in this one. Mulitalo & Nikora are a great price according to our model. Uele has one of the best try scoring strike rates amongst all forwards in the NRL & we love the $81 on offer for him on TAB. McInnes is more based on the ‘eye test’. He’s looked great coming off the bench and if there’s an area where the Panthers are vulnerable, it’s early in the second half when their bench forwards are on.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

We’re going to start off with who to fade (leave out) in this contest. The Panthers had played their second string forward pack last round so a lot of their lesser known players got more minutes last weekend. Players like Salmon, Kenny & Sorenson had good scores and may look decent value but we’d recommend staying away. Even in the Sharks pack, there isn’t a bench hooker and it’s quite a stacked pack that doesn’t leave space for one player to be the dominant workhorse. Teig Wilton played well in Nikora’s absence but he’s once again confined to a bench role which limits his upside.

With the greasy conditions expected for this game, both hookers (Koroisau & Brailey), Yeo & Fisher-Harris all seem like strong picks with high ceiling ranges. The key in this contest will be to make the decision between Cleary & Hynes. Our model has Cleary projected to score 8 points better, however Hynes has a noticeably better ceiling range. Coming off a week’s rest and playing at home, it’s hard to go past Nathan Cleary. But this is a flip of a coin and another case where it’d be a good idea to base your team off which team you think will win this game.

Sorting by ‘value’ most of the Panthers backs show up as 9 or 10/10 when you look at our projected score for them compared to their price. So a potential lineup could include Cleary, Panthers OBs & Yeo/Koroisau with Royce Hunt or Liam Martin to help you fit your team under the cap!

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

Rabbitohs v Storm

Saturday 23rd July, 7.35pm

Try Scorer Tips

Jai Arrow FTS @ $51 on TAB

Alex Johnston FTS @ $9 on Bet365

Cam Murray FTS @ $38 on Topsport

Tui Kamikamica FTS2H @ $67 on TAB

Nelson Asofa-Solomona FTS @ $51 on Neds

Jahrome Hughes ATS @ $3.90 on Neds

The Rabbits’ left edge up against Seve & Ieremia is the matchup of the weekend. It’ll be a miracle if AJ doesn’t go over, especially given the form of Latrell Mitchell & Cody Walker. Arrow is the left edge backrower and the $51 on offer for him to score first is also a great price.

Murray is priced at more than double what his price should be to score the 1st try if you go by his career strike rate. Coming off an Origin decider where he only played 2 minutes due a HIA and a weekend off, he’ll be raring to go against the Storm.

Kamikamica & NAS may swap between the bench & the starting 13 when final team lists are announced but we love the $51-67 on offer for them to score FTS/FTS2H.

NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool
NRL Try Scorer Odds Comparison Tool

You can find our free odds comparison tool here.

NRL Draftstars Advice

There are a few players from the Storm pack that stand out as 8/10 or higher if you sort by ‘value’ in this DFS contest. Jesse Bromwich & NAS especially seem like great picks considering their price and form/ceiling range respectively.

Deciding which of the Origin stars in Cook, Murray, Grant or Munster to pick in your team depends on which of the OBs & HH you go with. One style of team could start with Latrell, Alex Johnston & Cody Walker. In this case Murray might be better suited, as you’re picking a team that will do well in the scenario that the Rabbitohs are on the front foot and doing well.

The line has come in from 6.5 to 1.5 and with Souths’ form, the return of Cook & Murray and home ground advantage, it’s hard to see the Storm winning by a big margin. Harry Grant seems the standout pick for the Storm with Brandon Smith still not in their team. Munster has the best ceiling range in this contest so if you went with Munster & Grant, you could also consider Meaney now that he’s lock up the fullback spot for the season. And Kenny Bromwich who is rated 8/10 in our value ratings, plays on the left side with Munster and was in excellent form last weekend.

NRL Draftstars Stats Bible
NRL Draftstars Stats Bible

We have projected scores for each NRL Draftstars contest available on our stats bible. You can download these projections and upload them on to the cruncher on the Draftstars site.

Player Performance Markets

You can find the player performance scores of every NRL player here. You can filter by minutes player, position & seasons there as well.

18+ Gamble Responsibly

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on whatsapp
Share on email
Share on linkedin

Contact us

Book A Free Demo