Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 18 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round. Our content, data tools & Discord can be found here for free.
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Nikorima (early mail of him playing FB – ATS @ $5, 1st 2nd or 3rd at $13), Marshall-King (ATS @ $7, LTS Team @ $26), Grant @ $34 & Dearden @ $21 (First try scorer) all in 24 hours 🔥
Plays for tomorrow + our free Discord all available for free here 👇https://t.co/Bi2TlLBxe9 pic.twitter.com/UsjyYJrslw
— Wicky (@wickyai) July 1, 2023
Bulldogs v Knights
Sun 2/7, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Matt Burton 1st, 2nd or 3rd @ $11 on TAB
Jacob Preston 1st, 2nd or 3rd @ $10 on TAB
Lachlan Fitzgibbon 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $11 on TAB
Jackson Hastings 1st, 2nd or 3rd @ $19 on TAB
Tavita Pangai-Junior FTS, 2nd TS & LTS @ $67 on TAB
Jacob Saifiti FTS2H @ $67 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Tyson Gamble FTS @ $41 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Update Sun 2/7 – For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market on TAB, Hastings, Fitzgibbon and Preston are still the same odds and we really like those prices. Pangai Junior is only $67 for LTS now. He’s still $34 for Team FTS & LTS which we really like. Jacob Saifiti and Tyson Gamble are still the same price from the above markets. Matt Burton is now $9 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer which we think isn’t great considering you can get $34 for 2nd, 3rd or LTS for him.
Lachlan Fitzgibbon, Jacob Preston & Jackson Hastings are all good value for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer market on TAB. Hastings is more speculative – his best FTS price is $51 and we’re getting $19 for him to score any of the first three tries. Fitzgibbon and Preston are both excellent line runners on Ponga and Burton’s favoured sides respectively.
Matt Burton is priced at $25 or less to score first on most bookies. The odds of $34 for any tries (2nd, 3rd, last) is great value for a strong ball runner like Burton in what should be a close game. Our model and most bookies have Tyson Gamble priced at $34 or less – it’s clear to see why we like him at $41 to score first today against the struggling Dogs outfit.
Jacob Saifiti is $67 to score the first try in the 2nd half. We love this price against a Bulldogs bench which has both rookies and players lacking match fitness. Supercoach Guns’ try map also notes the Dogs are one of the worst teams in the NRL at conceding tries through the middle. Tavita Pangai-Junior got the first try for us at $67 only a few weeks ago. We’ll back him in again to send the Blues’ selectors a message. He’s originally from the Hunter so he’ll be fired up to have a big game! He’s done it one in every 43 games he’s play and most sites have him priced at $58 or less – clear to see why we like the $67 or $34 for Team FTS & LTS on TAB.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Manly v Roosters
Sun 2/7, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Daly Cherry-Evans 1st, 2nd or 3rd @ $13 on TAB. ATS @ $5, FTS2H @ $34, Team FTS & LTS @ $17 on TAB.
Haumole Olakau’atu 1st, 2nd or 3rd @ $10 on TAB. FTS2H @ $26, ATS @ $4, Team FTS & LTS @ $13 on TAB.
Lindsay Collins FTS & LTS @ $81, Team FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Josh Aloiai FTS2H @ $67 on TAB
Billy Smith FTS2H @ $26 on TAB, Team FTS & LTS @ $15 on TAB (Void – he’s ruled out)
Update Sun 2/7 – Daly Cherry-Evans and Haumole Olakau’atu are still $34 & $26 for FTS & LTS respectively. They have been crunched in for other markets on TAB (including 1st, 2nd or 3rd and ATS) but anywhere you see the $34 & $26 (and about half for Team FTS & LTS) is still great value. Even moreso considering the Roosters have lost two of their outside backs to concussion (including Joseph Suaalii). Collins is still $81 for FTS & LTS on 365. Josh Aloiai is $61 at best on Pointsbet now for FTS 2nd half.
Cherry-Evans and Olakau’atu for Manly were great last week to start the game – when Manly was in the contest with Melbourne and Olakau’atu scored the first try. Olakauatu’s career strike rate would have him priced just below $3 and Cherry-Evans’ would have him priced just above $4. You can see why we loved the prices availably on TAB early. Our premium members were shown the best prices on Tuesday but most users were able to get on throughout the week With these clear value picks, you need to get on before game day if you’re aiming to get on value picks long term.
Lindsay Collins is fresh off winning the Player of the Match in Origin Game 2 and scoring the last try last week. We love the $81 on offer for him to score first or last (separate markets) on 365. Aloiai at $61 is still OK value to crash over early in the 2nd half – we love the matchup here against May, Wong & Baker who are all rookie forwards.
Sharks v Dragons
Thu 29/6, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Teig Wilton Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $3.50 on Bet365
Siosifa Talakai ATS @ $3.15 on Neds/Ladbrokes (this play won)
Mikaele Ravalawa ATS @ $3.20 on Betr (this play won)
Ben Hunt FTS @ $34 on Betr
Jaydn Sua FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Blake Lawrie First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $126 & Last Try Scorer (LTS) @ $101 on Sportsbet
Frank Molo FTS @ $101 on Sportsbet
Michael Molo FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $101 on Sportsbet
Jacob Liddle FTS @ $51 on Bet365 (update 28/6 – he’s now $67 on 365!)
Price Updates Thu 29/6 – Wilton is now $3 to score anytime on Topsport which is OK value at best. Talakai is $3.10 on Neds/Lads which is still decent value. Ravalawa is $3.10 ATS on Betr which is still good value.
Ben Hunt is $34 for FTS on Topsport which we still like. Liddle is $46 for FTS on Topsport which we still think is decent value. Lawrie, Su’A and the Molo brothers are still the same price as above.
The Sharks are 18.5 point favourites in this one. They are generally flat track bullies and playing at home if you want to back try scorers from the Sharks – Talakai is our favourite ATS pick. Our model and most bookies have him at $2.70 or less, so the $3.10 seems to be clear value. Wilton was a great price at $3.50 when we announced him as a value pick to our Premium members, but he’s now an OK/fair price at $3 to score anytime. Ravalawa is $2.40-$2.80 on most bookies and our model so the $3.10 on Betr looks like a good price.
For the first try scorer market – Lawrie and Frank Molo are a juicy price at $126 and $101 respectively. Yes the Sharks are favourite but we love the price for these two big boys in the middle in a local derby. Jaydn Su’A has been in great form, scoring a try in 4 of his 12 NRL games in 2023 on Ben Hunt’s right edge for the Dragons. We love the $51 for him to score the first or last try on Bet365 (separate bets). Ben Hunt has scored the first try in a game every 18 games he’s played. Yes the Dragons are big outsiders – but the $34 for him to go over first on Topsport is a juicy price – he’s $29 or less on most bookies.
In Jacob Liddle’s 9 games this year where he’s played more than 40 minutes, he’s had 4 linebreaks and 3 tries. He loves scooting out of dummy half – so we still like the $46 on offer on Topsport to go over first. Michael Molo scored a try a couple of weeks ago and looks like a strong ball runner – we like the $101 for him to score the first try in the 2nd half.
Warriors v Rabbitohs
Fri 30/6, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Mitch Barnett 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $15, FTS2H @ $41, FTS Team @ $26, LTS Team @ $26, ATS @ $6 on TAB
Lachlan Ilias FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Tavita Tatola FTS @ $81 on Topsport
Hame Sele FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365 (He’s benched – avoid fts and lts)
Siliva Havili FTS2H @ $81 on Neds/Ladbrokes (He’s starting – fts and lts are the plays now)
Tom Burgess FTS2H @ $81 on Neds/Ladbrokes (He’s starting – fts and lts are the plays now)
Update Fri 30/6 – Ilias & Sele are still the price for the picks above on Bet365. Burgess & Havili are still $81 to score the first try in the 2nd half on Neds/Ladbrokes.
Note – Burgess and Havili are starting, Sele is benched. Join our Discord for live updates after final teams for every NRL game!
All reports point to a wet and windy night. Mitch Barnett is an amazing price for all the plays listed above. He’s named to start in the 2nd row on Shaun Johnson’s edge with Josh Curran ruled out (and Niukore suspended). This is an incredible price ($41 FTS and $6 ATS equivalent). TAB has all the prices as well as Unibet. This is around 1.5x what it should be priced at – ridiculous value play.
Given it’s expected to be a close, tight affair in wet and windy conditions, we love middle forwards priced around $70 or above in this game. Sele & Tatola (FTS), Havili & Burgess (on the bench, so FTS 2nd half) all fit this criteria. Burgess and Havili are significantly higher priced on Neds/Ladbrokes than other bookies to score the first try in the 2nd half.
Lachy Ilias scored the only try for Souths last week. The Rabbitohs attack hasn’t been sharp in the last few weeks with Origin disruptions + Latrell Mitchell missing. He’s scored 3 tries in his 16 games this year including a first try – we love the $41 on offer for him to score the first or last try (separate bets).
Storm v Panthers
Fri 30/6, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Harry Grant FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365 (This won! Grant scored 1st @ $34)
Jahrome Hughes 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $10, FTS2H @ $26, Team FTS & LTS @ $15 & ATS @ $4.50 on TAB.
Will Warbrick FTS & LTS @ $12 on Pointsbet
Mitch Kenny FTS @ $67 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Moses Leota FTS @ $71 on Sportsbet
James Fisher-Harris FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Spencer Leniu FTS2H @ $51 on Bluebet
Kane Bradley LTS @ $23 on Neds/Ladbrokes (Void – he didn’t play)
Update Fri 30/6 – Jahrome Hughes is the same or similar odds for the plays listed above – we still love the value on offer on TAB. Warbrick is now $11 at best across Pointsbet and a couple of other bookies which we think is decent still for FTS & LTS. Kenny, Leota & Fisher-Harris are still the same or similar odds as quoted above, we still like the value for these guys in what we expect to be a tight affair between two top four sides.
Grant is now $31 for FTS & LTS on Pointsbet. Leniu is now $46 for FTS 2nd half on Topsport and Bradley is still $23 on Neds/Ladbrokes for Last try scorer.
Jahrome Hughes career strike rate converted to betting odds would be $2.95. Factoring in the line and total for this game (and other factors) out model has him priced at $4.25. We like the $4.50 on offer on TAB for him to score a try anytime, but it’s the other markets like 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts + Team FTS & LTS etc that offer even more value. Great price for someone who’s looked great for the Storm and scored just last week when he was a value pick for us! Also on the Storm’s right side, Warbrick’s been on fire. He didn’t score last week but we like the $11 for FTS & LTS with that right edge of Hughes, Reimis Smith, Asofa-Solomona and Warbrick doing well in recent weeks. Kane Bradley scored a try off the bench a couple of weeks ago in just 22 minutes of game time – if there’s an injury in the backline he’ll come on to the wing so we love the $23 for him to score the last try on Neds/Ladbrokes.
Given it’s expected to be a tight game played through the middle of the field between these strong sides, we like middle forwards around $67-81 to score first/last. Mitch Kenny, Leota & Fisher-Harris all fit the bill here. Leota & Fisher-Harris are beasts with ball in hand and Kenny at $67 is a great price for a hooker to scoot over.
Grant is now $31 for FTS & LTS on Pointsbet which is OK value. He’s scored in 3 of the 14 NRL games he’s played this year including scoring the last try twice. In a close game, he’ll want to make an impact. Spencer Leniu is a beast – he’s only scored 1 try in 12 NRL games this year but he’s gone awfully close many times since scoring the first try in the 2nd half at $101 for us in Magic Round! We like the $46 for FTS2H on Topsport for him.
Raiders v Titans
Sat 1/7, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tanah Boyd 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $21, FTS2H @ $67, ATS @ $7.50, Team FTS & LTS @ $34 on TAB
Jack Wighton FTS @ LTS @ $21 & ATS @ $3.50 on Bet365
Pasami Saulo FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365 (he’s benched – FTS2H is $71 on Betright!)
Zac Woolford FTS @ $51 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Emre Guler FTS2H @ $61 on Pointsbet
Tanah Boyd was a ridiculous price on TAB for most of the week. He’s now around $41 for FTS/LTS and shortened for all the other markets also. It’s still an OK price but it shows the importance of being on our free Discord + getting on these try scorer value picks earlier in the week. He is now $8 to score anytime on Betr which is an amazing price.
Jack Wighton is priced $17 or less on most bookies to score the first try. You can get $21 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 – we love the price for the gun Raiders playmaker.
Pasami Saulo is still $81 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. With Josh Papali’i missing – Saulo will have to step up. He’s $67 or less on other bookies so we like the $81 price and he has played well this season. Woolford at $51 to score the first try is also a decent price against the Titans who aren’t known for their defence. Emre Guler is on the bench for the Raiders and we like the $61 for him to score first in the 2nd half – he’s got a strong running game and we fancy him running at the Titans’ bench forwards.
Cowboys v Wests Tigers
Sat 1/7, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tom Dearden FTS & LTS @ $21, ATS @ $3.50 on Bet365 (This won – Dearden scored first @ $21!)
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS, 2nd TS & 3rd TS @ $81, Team FTS & LTS @ $34 on TAB. ATS @ $11-12 on Sportsbet, Betr, Playup.
Reece Robson FTS & LTS @ $34, ATS @ $4.75 on Bet365
Shawn Blore FTS @ $51 on Bet365
Kulikefu Finefeuiaki LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Tom Dearden has scored a try in 21 of his 72 NRL games. He’s scored the first try 6 times and the last try 5 times. We had him as a value pick last week and he got up for us at $29 when he scored the last try! This week his team are strong favourites against the Tigers so we love the $21 on offer on Bet365 for FTS & LTS – he’s $17 or less on most other bookies.
Stefano Utoikamanu is a slam dunk play. He’s one of the elite middle forward try scorers in the NRL – he scores a try one in every 5.75 NRL games. He’s also scored the first try the last two times he’s played the Cowbows, including Round 12 this year when we’d tipped him at $61! His price according to his career strike rate would be $23.. and most bookies have him at $67 or less. His $81 FTS price is still there on TAB as well as $12 for ATS on Betr. He’s $67 for LTS on 365, Unibet and TAB which we still like also.
Finefuiaki is $29 for LTS – he’s scored a try in his last two games and should be priced closer to $20. He’s on the bench but will play out the game on the edge for the Cowboys. Reece Robson is now $29 & $4.25 for FTS/LTS & ATS respectively. It’s still great odds compared to his career strike rate and other bookies (for FTS) but the ATS price is just OK value now. Shawn Blore is $51 for FTS/LTS on Bet365 & $51 for FTS on Neds/Ladbrokes.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Broncos v Dolphins
Sat 1/7, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Kodi Nikorima 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $13, FTS2H @ $34, ATS @ $5 on TAB (This won – ATS @ $5, 1st 2nd or 3rd at $13 got up)
Billy Walters 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $15 on TAB. FTS, 2nd TS & LTS @ $41 on TAB/Neds
Jeremy Marshall-King 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts @ $21 on TAB. Team FTS & LTS @ $26 & ATS @ $7 on TAB. (This won – ATS @ $7 & LTS Team @ $26 got up!)
Ezra Mam FTS & LTS @ $15 on Bet365
Jesse Bromwich FTS @ $81 (most bookies) & LTS @ $81 (365, Unibet)
Herman Ese’ese FTS @ $91 on Sportsbet
Kenny Bromwich FTS @ $67 & FTS2H @ $67 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Mark Nicholls FTS2H @ $67 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Kodi Nikorima has been confirmed to play at fullback and is priced extremely well on TAB for the above markets still. Betr has him anytime try scorer at $5.25 and Playup + Unibet also have him at good prices. Amazing value play similar to Barnett in the Warriors v Rabbits game – around 1.5x the price he should be paying.
Update Sat 1/7 – Nikorima is only $34 for FTS & $4.75-5 for ATS on Unibet and Playup respectively. With these amazing value plays – it’s best to react to the news as the price rarely makes it to game day. For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts market – Walters is now $13 and Marshal-King is still $21. The prices on Mam, Nicholls & the Bromwich brothers are still around. The Nikorima and Barnett plays were given out to our Premium members then to our (free) Discord when the news broke. Make sure you don’t miss out on these value plays and join our Discord here.
Jeremy Marshall-King is $51 for FTS on TAB, 25% higher than the next best bookie. Why we love the $21 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd ts on TAB is because it’s similar to seeing $61 for FTS which is clear value. Billy Walters was $15 (similar to $45 FTS) but we’d prefer to take the $41 for FTS on TAB or Betr which is OK value.
Ezra Mam will have an increased role in attack with no Reece Walsh. He’s priced at $14 or less on most bookies for FTS, so we like the $17 for FTS & LTS on 365. Mark Nicholls scored the first try in the 2nd half at $101 for us earlier in the year and we love him at $67 to do it again this round – he’s priced at $41-61 on most bookies.
Having Marshall-King back also helps the chances of the other Dolphins forwards scoring. The game we mentioned above where he put Nicholls over, he also put Jarrod Wallace over next (another bench forward). It’s part of the reason we like the price for Jesse Bromwich ($81 for FTS/LTS) and Kenny Bromwich ($67 FTS, FTS2H) who will likely start on the edge and move to the middle. Herman Ese’ese is also $91 for FTS on Sportsbet.
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
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