Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 10 of the 2024 NRL season. We hit Tyson Gamble at 41s for first try scorer in Knights v Warriors in Round 9!
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Roosters v Warriors
Sun 12/5, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Bunty Afoa FTS & LTS @ $81 on Neds and Pointsbet
Angus Crichton FTS & LTS @ $21 on Bet365
Jackson Ford FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Wayde Egan FTS @ $44 on Topsport
Game Day Pick: Mitchell Barnett FTS @ $51 on Bet365
Edit – Barnett LTS @ $51 on Bet365 also a pick (Laban didn’t make the bench). Edit was at 120pm.
Wicky Game Day Preview Sun 12/5 – From our initial picks – Egan is now widely available at $41 for FTS, which we still like. The others are still available at those prices. Our game day pick Mitch Barnett – named to start in the 2nd row and will be next to SJ, love this price ($51 on 365).
Ford and Crichton have been great on the left edge for their sides. Even though Johnson’s on the right side – he’s even put Ford over for a try in recent weeks on the left edge. Supercoach or Fantasy players would have seen Crichton returning to his best in recent weeks – he’s played 5 full games for 3 tries, averaging 150 run metres and 4.6 tackle breaks per game.
Egan and Afoa we like as value plays on what should be a heavy track at Allianz. It’s been raining all week in Sydney and with the Warriors coming off 4 losses – we think they’ll look to keep it simple early on.
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Titans v Cowboys
Sun 12/5, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Kulikefu Finefeuiaki FTS @ $29 on Topsport, on Betr and on Bet365
Griffin Neame and Jaimin Jolliffe FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365 + Pointsbet
Reece Robson FTS @ $41 on Neds
Heilum Luki LTS @ $34 on Dabble
Erin Clark FTS2H @ $67 on Neds
Game Day Pick: Thomas Mikaele FTS @ $67 on Neds and Pointsbet
Wicky Game Day Preview Sun 12/5 – From our original picks – Luki is now $34 LTS on Dabble, Finefeuiaki is now $34 for FTS on Betr. The others are still available at the prices quoted above.
We’ve added Thomas Mikaele at $67 for FTS as our game day pick. He’s starting with McLean ruled out. He scored 2 tries in a preseason game this year and up against the Titans – we love the $67s! Robson at $41 for FTS is a similar value play – he’s a strong ball runner and will be looking to put up a big performance for Madge with the Cowboys’ recent poor form.
Neame and Jolliffe are both $51 for FTS and LTS – Jolliffe’s scored 2 tries this season and Neame’s scored 1 but we’re really keen to get on him at a good price now before he scores a couple and gets crunched in (like Hazelton and AFB). We tipped him at FTS2H most weeks when he was a benchie – he had a freakish stats for this given he was a bench middle forward.
Finefeuiaki looked excellent last week, his combination with Dearden is building really well. He’s also up against the right side for the Titans which is likely to have Randall or Brimson defending on there with Fermor. We love Luki for the same reason for LTS, as the side’s have been named – he should finish the game on the edge in his 2nd game back from injury.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Dolphins v Manly
Thu 9/5, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Mark Nicholls FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Taniela Paseka FTS @ $67 on Neds
Felise Kaufusi 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $19 on Neds
Kodi Nikorima 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Neds
Wicky Game Day Preview Thu 9/5 – This could arguably be the game of the round! 4 v 5 on the ladder, played on a fast track at Suncorp. The Dolphins are still missing a few key troops but they get Farnworth back for Niu (injured). Manly are missing Croker and Olakau’atu but do get Ben Trbojevic back with Lawton starting at hooker.
Mark Nicholls has already scored a try this year and is a clear value pick at $67 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Since he’s come to the Dolphins last year – he’s scored 4 tries in 29 games and as we say most weeks, we love JMK (their hooker) close to the line, he’s great at putting middle forwards over. Paseka is $67 for FTS on Neds – an example of someone with no historical stats saying he’ll be a try scorer but he passes the eye test as a strong ball runner in the prime of his career.
Felise Kaufusi is paying $19 to score any of the first three tries on Neds. He may not play the whole game on the edge with Lemuelu on the bench – but he’s named to start there and we love that price for him on the edge. For the same market – Kodi Nikorima is paying $14 which we also love. He’s been impressive for the Dolphins in 2024 and has always had an impressive running game.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Panthers v Bulldogs
Fri 10/5, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Reed Mahoney FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Viliame Kikau 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Neds
Mavrik Geyer LTS @ $34 on Sportsbet, on Dabble and on Bet365
Bronson Xerri FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Drew Hutchison FTS & LTS @ $67 on TAB and on Bet365
Wicky Preview – It’s been raining on and off all week in Sydney, this should be a grindy game played on a heavy track! Reed Mahoney was $67 for FTS and LTS (was $81 BEFORE the article, apologies) – he still is that price on 365. All the other prices are still the same!
Our thinking with these picks is that the Dogs should be competitive. So many ex-Panthers in this squad, Kikau in great form on the left edge + they’ve either won or lost by 4 points at most in every game since Round 3! Kikau and Xerri are picks based off their form on the lethal left. Mahoney is a great price for a hooker in this weather. Hutchison hasn’t been getting as much ball and he’s not a fast or agile player, but he does look close to the line.
The interesting one is Mav Geyer at $34 for LTS. Without injuries/HIAs – he should play the last 25 minutes or so on the left edge for Garner. Great price considering Garner and Martin (Penrith’s starting edge players) are $21 for LTS!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Eels v Broncos
Fri 10/5, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Brendan Piakura FTS & LTS @ $29 on Betr and on Bet365
Shaun Lane 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Neds
Game Day Picks:
Reagan Campbell-Gillard FTS @ $67 on Betr, LTS @ $67 on Sportsbet
Kelma Tuilagi LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Wicky Game Day Preview – Similar conditions to the first game – heavy track and likely to be raining during the game! Moses and Gutho missing for the Eels, Reynolds missing for the Broncos.
We’ve added Tuilagi LTS @ $51. With Matto starting there, Tuilagi will come on to the edge – we’re hoping it’s around the 30 or 50 minute mark and he just plays out the game there!
We also added RCG – these conditions should mean the game is played moreso in the middle of the field and RCG has a good combination of running the ball hard but also effort areas to chase a loose ball or be in the right place to score an ugly try!
Our original picks, Lane and Piakura are both the same price. Piakura looks a great hole runner and Lane, well we know what he’s capable of with ball in hand. Love the prices for both of these guys.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
West Tigers v Knights
Sat 11/5, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Leo Thompson FTS @ $67 on Neds
Game Day Pick:
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS & LTS @ $41 (widely available incl TAB, Dabble, Pointsbet)
Wicky Game Day Preview – Thompson is still $67 for FTS on Neds. It’s been raining for a few days in Tamworth and it’s scheduled to rain during the game – so we’re happy to have Thompson and Utoikamanu as our only picks for this game at juicy odds. We also broke down why both sides are likely to score and concede tries through the middle of the field in our left v right article this week.
Stefano Utoikamanu has scored the first try one in ever 31 games and last try one in every 20 games. He hasn’t even started all the games he’s played in + if Api’s back (he’s named) he’ll have a much higher chance of scoring… AND Jacob Saifiti has been ruled out so the Knights pack is noticeably weaker too.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Dragons v Rabbitohs
Sat 11/5, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Davvy Moale FTS @ $81, LTS @ $67 on Neds
Jaydn Su’A 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12.50 on Neds
Jacob Liddle 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Neds
Game Day Pick:
Dion Teaupa FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Wicky Game Day Preview – Moale, Su’A and Liddle are all still the same price. We’ve added Teaupa as a pick at $41 for FTS and LTS on 365.
It’s been raining heavily in Sydney since yesterday and both teams are struggling for form in 2024 – with a combined 5 wins in 17 games. We think this game will be mainly played through the middle. Moale’s a strong ball runner – we love the $81 and $67 for FTS and LTS for him in this weather! Liddle’s a strong ball runner – he’s made a couple of half breaks in recent weeks, we love the $14 for him to score any of the first three tries today.
Jaydn Su’A has been in great form in recent weeks and could be in contention for an Origin price. He’s priced at $23 or less for FTS on most bookies. Neds have $31 but we love the $12 for him to score any of the first three tries (similar to $36 for FTS). Clear value!
We’ve added the first gamer Dion Teaupa as a pick – mainly due to the price. $41 for a strong ball runner playing in what should be a tight game on a heavy track – we can see him getting to the ball first from a kick or simply running to run it instead of pass it out wide in the rain.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Storm v Sharks
Sat 11/5, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Shawn Blore FTS @ $41 on Bet365
Cam McInnes FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365 and Pointsbet
Blayke Brailey 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $19 on Neds
Game Day Pick: Joe Chan LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Wicky Game Day Preview – The prices for McInnes and Brailey are the same. Blore is now $34 for FTS on Betr which we still love.
This game’s in Melbourne where it’s a dry track! However, it’s a blockbuster game between 2 gun sides and the Storm are missing two key playmakers (Hughes and Papenhuyzen) so we think it’ll be a tight, low scoring affair. We have broken down where both teams are likely to score from here though.
Cam McInnes scored the first try a couple of weeks ago and has scored 4 tries in 33 games in the last 2 seasons, he’s definitely a much improved ball runner. Brailey at $19 to score any of the first tries – he scored a couple of weeks ago and we love the $57 equivalent price (19*3) for him here!
Blore is now down to $34 for FTS but we still love it! Munster’s left side will see more ball in attack and he’s been in great form. Joe Chan should end the game on that edge in a ‘usual’ rotation for them – and we absolutely love the $51 for LTS on 365. A fair price would be around $30 (as long as he is actually at left edge at the end) – clear value.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
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