Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 9 of the 2024 NRL season. We tipped Jeremiah Nanai at 29s to score the last try in Cowboys v Panthers in Round 8!
Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.
Knights v Warriors
Sun 5/5, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jayden Brailey 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $19 on Neds
Game Day Picks:
Mitch Barnett FTS & LTS @ $51 on Neds + Sportsbet
Tyson Gamble & Jackson Hastings FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Jackson Ford FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Wicky Gameday Preview – Okay no forecasts, it’s actually pissing down in Newcastle today! Brailey is out to @ $21 for 1/2/3rd try on Neds. Our game day picks are clearly priced better on 365 than other bookies and have all either looked great and scored tries this season or in the case of Barnett – we love this price for a middle forward to crash over against a Knights pack missing Jacob Saifiti and of course they’re still without Ponga.
Wicky Preview Wed 1/5 – Another confusing game to get a read on. With Kalyn Ponga out injured long term, most fans were concerned for the Knights. But they hold on for a gritty win against the Dolphins last week. Armstrong looked great at Fullback. The Warriors have lost their last two games to the Dragons and Titans! Can they go to Newcastle and get the job done to turn their season around? Addin Fonua-Blake literally couldn’t have done any more after scoring a try in each half last week!
We’ll add a game day pick and break down our try scorer picks a few hours before the first game of each game day.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Sharks v Dragons
Sun 5/5, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Raymond Faitala-Mariner FTS @ $46 on Topsport, LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Hame Sele FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Jacob Liddle 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $21 on Neds
Game Day Picks:
Kyle Flanagan FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Ben Murdoch-Masila FTS2H @ $67 on Neds
Wicky Game Day Preview Sun 5/5 – Shark Park is semi-flooded, we’re hoping it’s a day for halves to dummy and go or hookers/middle forwards to score as the ball is less likely to be spread out wide!
Sele is $81 on Neds and Pointsbet for FTS and $91 for LTS on Sportsbet. Faitala-Mariner is $51 for FTS and LTS on 365. Liddle is out to $23 for 1/2/3rd try on Neds! Our game day picks are based on Flanagan scoring a couple of tries this season already and being a juicy price at $34 + BMM running the ball hard in recent weeks and we love a middle forward at a juicy price in this weather.
Wicky Preview Wed 1/5 – The Dragons beat the Warriors and then got spanked by the Roosters on Anzac Day. It did include a HIA with literally the first hit up of the day (Suli) though.
On the flipside – the Sharks had a dominant 40-0 win against the Raiders. These local derbies are usually quite close – we’re backing the Dragons pack to keep them in the fight in this one.
We’ll add a game day pick and break down our try scorer picks a few hours before the first game of each game day.
Join Wicky’s NRL Fantasy League!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Rabbitohs v Panthers
Thu 2/5, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Davvy Moale FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365 & on Bet Right
Cameron Murray FTS & LTS @ $51 on TAB
Damien Cook 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $19 on Neds
Mitch Kenny 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $16 on Neds
Game Day Pick – Isaiah Tass ATS @ $3.50 on Neds
Wicky Game Day Update – The Rabbitohs lost their coach and made a ton of team changes. Tass is our game day pick – he should be on Alex Johnston’s left edge. The Panthers are missing Nathan Cleary – hopefully that weakens them enough for the Rabbitohs to score a couple of tries! He’s a great price on Neds – imagine seeing Alex Johnston priced at $3.50 to score anytime!
Cook and Kenny are both $17 to score any of the first three tries on Neds. We still love this price after all the team changes. With Cleary out and the Rabbitohs team changes – we’re hoping the game is played through the middle of the field early on.
On that note – Murray is $51 for FTS on Betr and $51 for LTS on Sportsbet. He scores the first try every 22 games and the last every 27 games. The Rabbitohs skipper will put it all on the line today – hopefully he crashes over at $51s for us!
Mavrik Geyer came on for Garner and played out the last 28 minutes of the game, which is likely to happen again this week against the Rabbitohs.
Moale gets a crack at a starting gig. We love his running style and he’s already scored a try earlier this season – against the Broncos too! He’s $71 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet and Bet Right.
Wicky Preview Wed 1/5 – The Rabbitohs have lost their Coach (he was let go today) and Taane Milne (suspended for that joke of a ‘tackle’ on Munster). The Panthers regain Leota and Turuva. With the expected rain likely staying away – this could be an absolute massacre! As always, when a team is a strong favourite we usually find value on the other side. We love the price around Cook especially.
We’ll add a game day pick and break down our try scorer picks a few hours before the first game of each game day.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Manly v Raiders
Fri 3/5, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Josh Aloiai FTS @ $51 on Topsport and on Bet365, LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Ethan Strange 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $16 on Neds
Ata Mariota FTS2H @ $81 on Neds
Game Day Picks – Joseph Tapine FTS @ $81 & LTS @ $67 on Neds
Wicky’s Game Day Preview Fri 3/5 – The rain is finally set to come in so this could be a lower scoring affair! The Raiders are coming off a 40-0 loss but we’re hoping their strong forward pack can atleast keep them in the game early!
Strange and Mariota are still the same prices as above. Aloiai is still $51 for FTS and LTS on Bet365. Aloiai is a strong ball runner and for a game played in the wet – we love this price for him, the Raiders did concede the first two tries to middle forwards last week. Mariota is a play on the price but also for the chance that he spends time at 2RF given Whitehead is returning from a calf injury. Strange will command the ball and is a Wighton-style ball runner – we love the $16 for him to score any of the first three tries on Neds.
We’ve added Tapine as FTS @ $81 on Neds. He’s at the peak of his career and will want to carry the Raiders on his back early in this one. His career try scoring stats aren’t impressive and the Raiders are clear underdogs in this one – but we love the $81s for him to crash over first!
Wicky Preview Wed 1/5 – Although DCE escaped suspension, Haumole Olakauatu will be missing the next couple of games for Manly. The Raiders are coming off a 40-0 loss, the week after losing Fogarty to a biceps injury. It’s hard to see Canberra being able to compete with an impressive Manly outfit who regain Sipley in what is a stacked forward pack.
We’ll add a game day pick and break down our try scorer picks a few hours before the first game of each game day.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Join Wicky’s NRL Supercoach League!
Broncos v Roosters
Fri 3/5, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Lindsay Collins FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Luke Keary FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365, on Dabble ($44 FTS Topsport)
Brandon Smith 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on Neds
Game Day Picks – Terrell May LTS @ $81 on Bet365
Wicky’s Game Day Preview Fri 3/5 – So Radley, Tupou and JWH are all out for the Roosters in this one. We’ve added Terrell May at $81 for LTS as a game day pick. He’s a beast of a ball runner and even if he’s named on the bench, this is SURELY one of the games Robbo gives him big minutes and we can see him crashing over late in the 2nd half. $81 is great value.
Collins, Keary and Brandon Smith are still available at the prices quoted above. We love the prices. Although the Roosters have these 3 key outs – they were super impressive last week.
Wicky Preview Wed 1/5 – If Victor Radley (who is in the reserves) is a late in – we should see an absolute blockbuster with both teams pretty much at full strength! The game’s at Suncorp but we think the Roosters will get up for this one, just like they did in Vegas when they beat the Broncos in Round 1.
We’ll add a game day pick and break down our try scorer picks a few hours before the first game of each game day.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Bulldogs v West Tigers
Sat 4/5, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Aidan Sezer 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on Neds
Aidan Sezer LTS @ $41 (widely available incl on Bet365)
Stefano Utoikmanu FTS @ $51 (Betr) + LTS @ $41 (widely available)
Game Day Pick Sat 4/5 – Bronson Xerri FTS @ $17 on Bet365 and Betr, LTS @ $17 on Bet365
Wicky’s Game Day Preview – We’ve added Xerri as our game day pick. With Kikau’s dominant form – the left side for the Dogs has been dominant in the last few weeks. With the rain around, maybe the ball doesn’t make it to Addo-Carr on the wing! We love the $17 for Xerri here.
Utoikamanu is still $51 for FTS on TAB and Betr. He’s scored the first try one in every 30 games and even if the Tigers are understrength the one weakness the Dogs do have is their forward pack. He’s now $46 on Sportsbet for LTS also!
Sezer is out to $17 for 1/2/3rd try on Neds and $41 for LTS on most sites. It’s less attractive now with Api out and Preston likely in (Dogs stronger faves) however he’s up against his old side and will command more ball so we’re still happy with these prices.
Wicky Preview Wed 1/5 – If Jacob Preston (named in the reserves) is a late in – both of these teams will pretty much have their full strength lineups too! Should be a great game between two sides who have struggled in previous years. The Bulldogs beat the Roosters, almost beat the Storm in Melbourne and then beat the Knights before the bye. The Tigers’ form hasn’t been as good but they have shown promising signs.
We’ll add a game day pick and break down our try scorer picks a few hours before the first game of each game day.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Titans v Storm
Sat 4/5, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Nelson Asofa-Solomona LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Tanah Boyd FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365
Game Day Pick Sat 4/5 – Shawn Blore FTS @ $29 on Bet365
Wicky’s Game Day Preview – We’ve added Blore at $29 for FTS. It’s clearly higher than this price on most other books, he’s scored and looked dangerous in recent weeks. It’s Munster’s 200th (the half next to him) so we think there’ll be a bit more ball there than usual, especially later in the game if they’re up a big margin.
Boyd has scored the last couple of weeks. The Titans have been big outsiders the last 3 weeks and competed really well – including a 90th minute loss and beating the Wahs in NZ last week! We love the $51 for FTS and LTS for Boyd. NAS is a beast. He hasn’t been at his best thus far in 2024 but we think he could easily crash over late in the game – he should get a 2nd stint with the Storm bench even lighter than usual.
Wicky Preview Wed 1/5 – How the hell do you make sense of this matchup? The Titans covered the line in two games they were expected to lose comfortably before shocking the Warriors in NZ on Anzac Day. They’ll be full of confidence with David Fifita stepping up in big Tino’s absence. Scoring a try in each of their last 2 games. The Storm beat the Rabbitohs comfortably but they’ll be up against a Titans side full of spirit and confidence on their home turf. We could potentially see boom rookie Sualauvi Faalogo replace Wishart on the wing, for the injured Xavier Coates.
We’ll add a game day pick and break down our try scorer picks a few hours before the first game of each game day.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Cowboys v Dolphins
Sat 4/5, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Mark Nicholls FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Reece Robson 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Neds
Felise Kaufusi 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $17 on Neds
Josh Kerr LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Heilum Luki LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Connelly Lemuelu LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Game Day Pick Sat 4/5 – Josh Kerr FTS2H @ $51 on TAB and Pointsbet
Wicky’s Game Day Preview – We’ve added Kerr as a pick to score first in the 2nd half at $51. He’s now $51 for LTS – our Premium members got him at $81 earlier in the week, he was $67 by Wednesday evening when the article got out and now into $51s! We’ve done analysis on the Cowboys soft middle, conceding 37% of tries in 2024 through the middle. Between Nicholls, Kerr and Plath they’ve scored 5 tries this season!
Luki and Lemuelu are both edge players on the bench – they’re both $29 and $41 respectively on 365. Both strong ball runners, we love the price here. Nicholls is now widely $51 for FTS and LTS but we still like the price. Again pointing to the analysis above. Cows have a weak middle + without the Dolphins stars, they’re playing a more direct game through their hooker (JMK) who’s great at putting middle forwards over.
Robson and Felise Kaufusi are still the same price for 1/2/3rd try on Neds. Robson’s a strong ball runner running at a depleted Dolphins side. With Api out this week, Cook playing for an out of Rabbitohs side – he’ll want to push his case for an Origin jersey, we love this price for him. Kaufusi’s more a play on the number – $17 to score any of the first three tries for a 2nd rower is insane!
Wicky Preview Wed 1/5 – Tom Chester and Kenny Bromwich are out for this game. Lemuelu and Luki (both 2nd rowers) are back on their team’s benches and Felise Kaufusi starts for the Dolphins. This should be a cracker – the Cowboys should lock up a top 8 spot with a win, whereas the Dolphins could nab a top 4 spot if they can win here!
We’ll add a game day pick and break down our try scorer picks a few hours before the first game of each game day.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
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