Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for State of Origin Game 2 2023. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets for Origin, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for the $40,000 contest.
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Maroons v Blues
Wed 21/6, 8.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tyson Frizell First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $51, Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $8.75 & FTS 2nd half (FTS2H) @ $51 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Hudson Young FTS @ $51 & ATS @ $7.50 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Stefano Utoikmanu FTS2H @ $67 on Bluebet & Neds/Ladbrokes
Payne Haas FTS @ $67 on Sportsbet & 365. 2nd TS @ $71 on Sportsbet. LTS @ $67 on 365.
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Update Wed 21/6 – Frizell & Young are still miraculously almost the same price on Neds/Ladbrokes. Utoikamanu at $67 or higher for FTS2H is good value. Haas is still $67 or higher for FTS & LTS on 365 and Sportsbet.
Tyson Frizell & Hudson Young are ridiculously good prices on Neds/Ladbrokes. There’s a chance Martin or Murray start on an edge and one of them are benched. However, the price of $51 for FTS is around 1.5x most other bookies and clearly 20% + better than where they should be priced at so we’re happy to take the plunge. Young only got 30 minutes in game 1 but we think he’ll get 50-60 minutes in this game so we’re happy to even take the anytime try scorer play for him. Frizell was inches away from scoring in game 1. He’s scored in 4 of 11 games this year – we love the ATS ($8.25) and FTS/FTS2H price ($51) for him.
Stefano Utoikamanu has scored 8 tries in 46 NRL games. That’s a freakish strike rate for a middle forward, especially one at the start of his career. He’ll be on either side of last time and we love the $67 for him to score the first try in th 2nd half. We’d play it at $61 or above.
Payne Haas would be close to leading the Dally Ms. He’s a beast in both attack and defence. He doesn’t have the best try scoring strike rate but we love him at $61 or above for FTS, 2nd TS or LTS.
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Player of the Match markets
Given this market is usually available for Rep games & Grand Finals, it’s best to go with your gut or a player from the team you’re supporting.
If you’re going for the Blues, or think the Blues will win, Tom Trbojevic at $19 (Pointsbet) or Cam Murray ($41 – Pointsbet, Neds, Topsport) could be worth a shout. With no Cleary, Latrell and Koroiuau – the Blues need someone a match winner and Murray through the middle or Trbojevic to inject himself as he does when Manly are on could be the way to go.
If you think the Maroons will get up (and they are strong favourites), there isn’t much value in their key spine players. Reuben Cotter won Player of the Match in game One at $67 and Carrigan won Player of the Series last year (which would have been huge odds pre series)! Carrigan at $19 (Bluebet), David Fifita at $41 (Bluebet) or big Tino at $41 (Pointsbet & Neds) could be the way to go.
We think Queensland should win comfortably at Suncorp and Tino at $41 is the way to go.
Draftstars – $40,000 contest
Update Wed 21/6 – If you’re only going to enter one team or a a few entries at most, it’s important to think about how you think the game will go. With the Maroons favourites by 6.5 points and the game being played at Suncorp, which is traditionally a faster track. And it being the second game – so the sides have had more time to gel together. The main contest has a 1st prize of almost $4,000 and a prize pool of $40,000. There are also free or $2 entry contests. We’ve made a short video in this week’s Podcast to help you get started with Draftstars.
We think with Nanai, Cotter, Murray and Martin priced under $11,000 there’s no reason to spend big in the forwards. Tedesco & To’o should get their usual big base stats (run metres and tackle breaks). Tom Trbojevic could bust a game open at Suncorp. With no Latrell and Cleary – he could see more ball.
The most difficult decision is in the spine. With both teams having two hookers, we’d stay away from them. In the halves – you’d think Moses gets bulk kick metres alongside Luai. This is the type of game that Cam Munster will want to own. We think it’d be best to go with one of these two – whoever gels well with the rest of your side or fits in your salary cap!
Player Performance Markets
Hudson Young under 37.5 player performance points. He only played 30 minutes in the first game. With Martin and Murray on the bench, we think he’s likely to play less than 60 minutes again. With QLD strong favourites, if Young doesn’t get any big attacking stats this is an excellent value play. On Pointsbet & Topsport.
Update Wed 21/6 – This has been crunched in by 3-5 points on both sites, still an OK play if you think Young will get less than half a game again but it’s now marginal.
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