Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 17 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round. Our content, data tools & Discord can be found here for free.
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We've had a ridiculous weekend. Got First Try Scorers with Fogarty ($46), Iszac Faasamaleuai ($101), Pangai Junior ($67) & then Last Try Scorer Townsend ($61)
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Broncos v Titans
Sun 25/6, 2pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
David Fifita FTS/LTS @ $29 & ATS @ $4 on Bet365 (Fifita ATS @ $4 won)
Billy Walters FTS @ $51 on Neds
Kieran Foran FTS @ $51 on Neds
Jaimin Jolliffe FTS2H @ $81 on Neds/TAB
Erin Clark FTS2H @ $101 on Neds
Klese Haas FTS2H @ $51 on Neds (Void – he’s not playing)
Update Sun 25/6 – Walters, Foran & Jolliffe are the same prices as above and we still like all 3 picks. David Fifita is great value on 365, we’ve added him to the value picks above.
There are no edge forwards on the Titans bench which makes us think David Fifita should play close to the whole game. Our model, his career strike rate and most bookies have him priced between $2.90-$3.65. The $4 seems great value here. Most bookies and his career strike rate would have him priced at $24 to score the first try. We love the $29 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 also. We announce final teams on our free Discord – hopefully David Fifita starts and plays the whole game!
Billy Walters and Kieran Foran are both priced at $51 to score the first try. Our model and most bookies have them at $42 or less. We like the number here and we also don’t mind the matchup. Walters against a Titans side with their two big stars returning from Origin and with a point to prove with Ben Hunt potentially taking hit spot soon. Kieran Foran scored a double in Magic Round at huge odds – he’s back on the left edge for the Titans and could catch the Broncos off their guard early in this one.
Jaimin Jolliffe at $81 to score the first try in the 2nd half is decent value but the one we’re more excited about is Erin Clark at $101. He had a great run of form late in 2022. He’s been OK at best this season but his only linebreak and 100 run metre game has been against the Broncos earlier this season. We’re taking the number here more than the man but happy to have these against our record!
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Rabbitohs v Cowboys
Sun 25/6, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tom Dearden FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365 (Love this) (Dearden LTS @ $29 won)
Lachlan Ilias FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365 ($38 FTS on Topsport)
Griffin Neame FTS2H @ $61 on TAB (Love this)
Jamayne Taunoa-Brown FTS2H @ $81 on Neds/Lads
Michael Chee-Kam FTS2H @ $67 on Neds/Lads
Update Sun 25/6 – Dearden and Ilias are the same price on 365. Taunoa-Brown is still the same price. Neame’s been crunched into $51 everywhere which is now OK value. Chee-Kam’s price is gone.
Tom Dearden’s career strike at scoring the first try converted to betting odds would be $12. They are outsiders to the Rabbitohs but the $29 on 365 is great value. We love this price for FTS & LTS – he’s $21 or less on most other bookies. Lachlan Ilias is $38 for FTS on Topsport. He’s priced at $30 or less on most other bookies, we like this play for the number mainly.
Griffin Neame has scored the first try in the 2nd half twice in his 36 NRL games already. He’s looked good in the last couple of weeks and and we love the matchup against a Rabbitohs pack with a few guys returning from injury on the bench. Neame will be fresh on the field early in the 2nd half so I think the $51 for FTS2H is still okay – our Premium members got $81 on Tuesday before it was crunched in!
Taunoa-Brown is mainly a play at the number but similar reasoning to Neame. Both bench forwards for the Cowboys have looked good recently, running at a Souths pack with potentially no Cam Murray and some returning forwards.
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Roosters v Raiders
Sun 25/6, 6.15pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Elliott Whitehead FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Jamal Fogarty FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365
Josh Papali’i ATS @ $8.50 on Sportsbet
Emre Guler FTS2H @ $67 on TAB & Neds (Love this)
Update Sun 25/6 – Emre Guler is still $67 for FTS2H on TAB & Neds – we love this price for Guler. Fogarty & Whitehead are still the same price on 365.
Our model and most bookies have Fogarty and Whitehead around $30-35 for the FTS market. We like the $41 on 365 for them to score the first and last try (separate markets). Fogarty got up at $46 for us 3 weeks ago! Pretty clear value here + we think the Raiders will make a statement against the Roosters today so the matchup of these two on the right edge against a Roosters left (hopefully) without Keary could be the way to go.
Josh Papali’i to score anytime at $8.50 is significantly better than the $4.80 it would be if you went by his career strike rate. We think this is a good play but the $51 for FTS/LTS is better. We’ll announce these closer to kick-off on our (free) Discord.
Emre Guler scored his only try in round one and is averaging less than 80 run metres and a tackle break a game. Not inspiring stats. But it’s like when we called Wiremu Greig a few weeks ago and Royce Hunt earlier this season before they went on to score tries. We love Guler’s style of play and think the $67 is a good price, especially considering Canberra have the stronger pack with only Crichton and Brown on the bench as proven forwards.
Dragons v Warriors
Fri 23/6, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Moses Suli ATS @ $4.80 & FTS @ $29 on Neds
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $11 on Betr (This bet won!)
Jack Bird ATS @ $6 on Bet365
Update Fri 23/6 – Bird is still $6 to score anytime on 365. Suli is still $4.80 to score anytime on Neds/Ladbrokes as well as $29 for FTS. Dallin is still $11 on Betr & Pointsbet to score the first try.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has scored a try in 5 of his 8 NRL games this season. We think the Warriors will win this game and the $11 for Dallin to score first on Pointsbet & Betr is comfortably better than the $8.80 our model has him priced at!
Moses Suli is priced significantly higher on Neds/Ladbrokes than other bookies. Looking at our model’s price (which takes the line/total, his strike rate etc into consideration) he’s not great value but we’re happy to play the number here.
Jack Bird is priced at less than $5 by our model and most bookies. Even though we think the Warriors should win this one comfortably, Bird will be fresh after a couple of weeks off and he can score tries in a few different ways – we love the $6 for him to score anytime.
Dolphins v Eels
Sat 24/6, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Felise Kaufusi FTS @ $51 on Neds/Lads & FTS2H @ $41 on TAB/Neds
Kodi Nikorima FTS @ $38 on Topsport
Mark Nicholls FTS2H @ $61 on TAB (Got up for us at $101 FTS2H a few weeks ago)
Kenny Bromwich FTS @ $67, FTS2H @ $67 on Neds/Ladbrokes (Risk he moves to the middle or bench with Lemuelu on the bench but price too good to not get on)
Update Sun 24/6 – Felise Kaufusi is still at the prices quoted above and we still like the play. Nicholls is now $51 at best for FTS 2nd half. With Marshall-King not playing (he’s great at putting middle forwards over) we think this isn’t value anymore at $51. Kenny Bromwich has been crunched in and is not value anymore given there’s uncertainty over his role anyway.
Felise Kaufusi plays on the Dolphins’ right side running at the left edge missing Dylan Brown and Shaun Lane. We like the matchup here and the price is a clear standout. Most bookies, our model and his career strike rate have him priced around $30-44. He’s priced at $51 for First Try Scorer (FTS) & $41 for FTS 2nd half (FTS2H).
Kodi Nikorima is likely to partner O’Sullivan in the halves according to late mail. He’s priced around $26-34 by most other bookies, his career strike rate & our model. We like the price here and playing at home with their halfback back in the team, we think the Dolphins could start strong.
Panthers v Knights
Sat 24/6, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jackson Hastings FTS2H @ $81 & Team FTS & LTS @ $34 on TAB (Hastings LTS Team @ $34 won)
Dane Gagai FTS @ $34, LTS @ $34, ATS @ $5 on TAB
Kalyn Ponga ATS @ $4 + FTS2H @ $26 on TAB. Game day – read below, still value on TAB. (Ponga ATS @ $4 won)
Adam Elliott FTS @ $58 on Topsport. Now $51 on 365 for FTS & LTS.
Spencer Leniu FTS2H @ $51 on Bluebet (We love him – got up at $101 fts2h in Magic Round!)
Matt Croker FTS2H @ $81 on TAB
Soni Luke FTS2h @ $41 on TAB/Bluebet
Update Sat 24/6 – Hastings is still $29 for Team FTS & LTS & $81 on for FTS2H on TAB. With the Panthers resting their 5 Origin stars + Nathan Cleary already missing – we love the value on this play! Kalyn Ponga is $26 for LTS on TAB, $23 for FTS but the FTS2H & ATS prices are crunched in and we don’t love the value there. Adam Elliott is still $51 for FTS on 365. We also like him for LTS @ $51.
Matt Croker is now $67 for FTS2H on Bluebet which is still decent value. Spencer Leniu is now $51 for FTS 2nd half on Sportsbet which we love. Soni Luke is $34 for FTS 2nd half on Sportsbet which is OK.
Preview – This game has changed completely since I originally put out the value try scorer picks for our Wicky Premium members on Tuesday. The Panthers have rested their 5 Origin players and obviously Nathan Cleary is also missing. We also tipped Newcastle +10.5 once the news broke for our Premium members – it’s going to be an exciting game to follow!
Of our try scorer picks – Ponga’s in great form, Hastings is priced way higher than most bookies on TAB & we’re backing Elliott to score a try like he did in his run of form in the middle of the 2022 season for the Raiders. Remember these picks are based on the prices we’ve quoted – if you see them at a noticeably lower price, they are not value and we wouldn’t recommend getting on.
For the first try 2nd half market – we love Leniu at $51. We won on him in Magic Round at $101. Even though the price is half of that, he’s a great pick to score a try and he’ll be fresh off the bench early in the 2nd half! Croker could spend some time on the edge but even if he’s in the middle, we love him at the $67 price.
Dane Gagai is an excellent price on TAB – they haven’t changed it since the line moved. He’s the right centre – running at a Panthers left missing Jarome Luai and Izack Tago (moved right, Peachey defending there who’s not a great defender).
Storm v Manly
Sat 24/6, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Will Warbrick FTS @ $9.50 on Betr & ATS @ $1.98 on Topsport
Reimis Smith ATS @ $3.75 on Neds/Ladbrokes + FTS @ $21 on Neds
Jahrome Hughes ATS @ $4.10 on Betr (This won)
Daly Cherry-Evans ATS @ $6 & 3rd TS @ $41 on TAB (read notes – more TAB plays)
Haumole Olakau’atu ATS @ $4.40 on Neds & Playup (This won)
Tyran Wishart FTS2H @ $51 on Neds & TAB (High risk, high reward – he’s a utility)
Toa Sipley & Taniela Paseka 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $81 on TAB
Josh Aloiai FTS2H @ $81 on TAB
Update Sat 24/6 – Warbrick is still $9.50 for FTS on Betr but $1.83 on Topsport at best for ATS. Cherry-Evans is still $5.75 for ATS on Betr which we love with Munster now ruled out. He’s not $41 for any TAB markets but he is $17 for Team FTS & LTS which we still like. Reimis Smith is $3.70 ATS on Neds & $21 FTS which we love. Jahrome Hughes is still $3.75 on TAB which we love for ATS. Olakau’atu is $4.50 ATS on Neds/Ladbrokes which we love.
Wishart is still $51 on Neds & TAB for FTS2H which we think is a great play with Munster rested and Garlick on the bench for Grant – Wishart should get time on the field. Aloiai is $67 FTS2H on Bluebet which is OK. Sipley is $81 on Neds for FTS & Paseka is $71 for FTS on Topsport which we still like. They are both still $81 for LTS on TAB. They’ve both been crunched in for 2nd TS on TAB.
Preview – Tom Trbojevic & Cam Munster have been ruled out of their respective sides. Warbrick scored 4 last week and with Hughes in and Munster out, we expect the Storm right side to get more ball. This also helps Reimis Smith and Jahrome Hughes. All three are good value too – we love the number and the matchup here.
Speaking of the right side of the field – Cherry-Evans and Olakau’atu both play on the Manly right side and are running at a Melbourne left missing Cam Munster. We love the price for both of these guys and the matchup as well.
Sipley has looked desperate for a try and at that $81 price, we think he’s a great pick. Paseka has been impressive for a few weeks now – same reasoning, we like him at the $81 price. The Storm bench has Pene, Garlick, Wishart and Macdonald – hardly experienced NRL players. It’s clear to see why we think Aloiai at $81 for FTS 2nd half is also a good value pick. Tyran Wishart is a bench utility for the Storm. With Grant backing up and Munster not playing, we think he could come on and get his hands on the ball quite a bit. The $51 price is crazy value as long as he’s on the field! He scored in their last game as well.
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