Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 6 of the 2024 NRL season. Last week, we hit Ben Hunt at 10s and Isaiya Katoa at 15s both to score the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd try!
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Wests Tigers v Dragons
Sun 14/4, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet Right, on Bet365 & on Dabble
Jacob Liddle 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on Neds
Anytime Try Scorer – Tyrell Sloan @ $2.65 on Bet365
Game Day Picks:
Raymond Faitala-Mariner. FTS @ $51 on Neds. ATS @ $8.5 (Neds) and $8 (Dabble). 1st 2nd or 3rd try @ $19 (Neds). LTS @ $41 on Neds & Dabble.
Jayden Sullivan 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12.5 on Neds
Wicky Game Day Update 14/4, 3pm – We’ve added Sullivan (1/2/3) – he loves going for the line and up against his old club, we love this price for him to score any of the first three prices.
By far the play of the day is Raymond Faitala-Mariner. There are a bunch of different ways to him across Neds and Dabble – but they haven’t factored in that he’s now starting in the 2nd row with Luciano Leilua missing. Great prices!
There was talk that Tyrell Sloan could be playing on the wing with Lomax shifting to Fullback. Even if they are not named like this – they could switch during the game. If not – we still love the $2.65 for Sloan to score anytime. His career strike rate converted to odds would be $2.16 and they’re playing a Tigers team with no Galvin, Bateman and Fainu. Jacob Liddle is playing a milestone game (100th) and playing his old team too! We love the $15 for him to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try (similar to $45 for FTS).
Stefano Utoikamanu – well we won’t rattle off the stats again, but he’s been in beast mode for the Tigers on the field without actually scoring! Has freakish FTS and LTS stats – we’re more than happy to back him in against the Dragons! Dabble and Pointsbet still have him $41 for FTS and LTS.
Wicky Preview Wed 10/4 – The Tigers were already missing Galvin for this one but Bateman & both Fainu’s are also missing. The Dragons were set to drop Ravalawa and Lawrie but they have been named for now. Sloan and Lomax were reportedly meant to swap but again, they’ve been named in the same positions for now. Honestly, this game is a bit of a lottery. The line is set at +1.5 for the Dragons and we’d lean that way with the Tigers missing a few players.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Join Wicky’s NRL Fantasy League!
Raiders v Titans
Sun 14/4, 6.15 pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Zac Hosking 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $9.75 on Neds
Josh Papalii FTS @ $41 on Bet Right (and other bookies) + LTS @ $46 on Sportsbet
Anytime Try Scorer – Zac Hosking @ $4.60 on Neds
Game Day Picks – Beau Fermor FTS & LTS both @ $31 on Dabble
Wicky Game Day Update 14/4, 3pm – Hosking is $4.50 to score anytime and $10 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer on Neds. Both incredible prices! He scored in both his starts where he played the full game and he’s now up against arguably the weakest defensive side in the NRL, the Titans! Josh Papalii is $51 for FTS and LTS on Dabble!
We’ve added Beau Fermor for FTS & LTS @ $31 on Dabble. He looked good last week and the Raiders have been impressive this season but he will be running at a rookie (Ethan Strange). He’s a great line runner and we loved that he was over $30 for these markets.
Wicky Preview Wed 10/4 – The Raiders have lost Rapana and Horsburgh to injury. Both players are set to miss more than a month of action. There’s a chance Kieran Foran misses the game as he struggled with injury in last week’s game. The Raiders could easily cover the -8.5 line unless the Titans show a significant turnaround in form.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Knights v Roosters
Thu 11/4, 7.50pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Luke Keary FTS & LTS @ $34 on TAB & on Dabble. FTS available on Bet Right & on Topsport also
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves FTS @ $67 on Topsport & LTS @ $61 on Sportsbet
Lindsay Collins FTS @ $61 on Pointsbet
Wicky Update Thu 11/4 – Honestly, there isn’t too much value so we’ve stayed away from a game day pick. With Marzhew potentially returning, there will definitely be a juicy same gamer with the Knights left edge – we will lock that in on our Discord server around 30 mins before kickoff, like we do for every game! Collins is still $61 for FTS on Pointsbet. JWH is $61 for FTS on Bet Right, Betr & Sportsbet & LTS @ $61 on Bet Right & Sportsbet. Keary is $34 for FTS & LTS on Dabble. He’s FTS @ $34 on Bet Right.
Wicky Preview Wed 10/4 – The chaos from the Roosters’ clash against the Bulldogs in Round 5 sees multiple changes to their lineup including Tedesco, Sam Walker and Dom Young being ruled out. The Knights are still missing Frizell, but could get Marzhew back (in reserves). If Marzhew returns – it’ll mean a left edge of KPP, Best & Marzhew. We know Ponga loves hitting his left edge – could be a juicy proposition for anyone weighing up Fantasy/SC trades or same game multis!
The Knights have no excuses here. Playing at home with almost their first strength lineup against a depleted Roosters outfit. Ponga’s looked better in the last couple of weeks – we think the Knights will be too good here.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
We usually post our same game multis on our Discord before every game, but the Friday Night Wicky Multi is here below! Almost double the price on 365 than other bookies.
Storm v Bulldogs
Fri 12/4, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Drew Hutchison FTS @ $54 on Topsport, LTS @ $51 on Betr & TAB
Tui Kamikamica FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet Right, Sportsbet & on Dabble
Anytime Try Scorer – Jahrome Hughes @ $3.30 on Bet365
Wicky Update Fri 12/4 – It’s absolutely crazy but Hughes is now somehow $3.70 on Bet365. Our model and his career strike rate would price him between $2.50-3. No other bookie has him higher than $2.90. The Dogs are missing almost half their side. This is ridiculous value.
Tui Kamikamica is widely available for $41s for FTS & LTS – Bet365 and Dabble have him at LTS at that price still. Harry Grant’s great at putting middle forwards over also and Kami does love looking for the line! Against this weak Dogs pack (and overall lineup), we love this price. We also need him, Nicholls or Tatola to score to get our Bet Right custom market up @ $2.90!
Drew Hutchison is only $51 for FTS on Neds now – he’s widely available for $41 for FTS and LTS which we still think is OK.
Wicky Preview Wed 10/4 – The Bulldogs may have held on for a win against the Roosters, but they’re missing Taaffe, Mann & Edwards and are likely to miss Max King, Vili Kikau and Connor Tracey. They’ve been named but they’ve all got relatively serious injuries. The Storm looked great in attack against the Broncos last week – we think the -16.5 will be easily covered by a slick Storm outfit with the big 4 back in the spine and the potential of big ‘NAS’ returning as well (he’s in the extended squad).
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Broncos v Dolphins
Fri 12/4, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jesse Bromwich FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365 & on Dabble
Jeremy Marshall-King 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $16 on Neds
Kodi Nikorima 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Neds
Isaiya Katoa 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $13 on Neds
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Ezra Mam @ $3.70 on Bet365
Game Day picks – Mark Nicholls FTS @ $61 on Bet Right & Pointsbet + LTS @ $51 (widely available)
Wicky Update Fri 12/4 – Mark Nicholls is starting now, the Premium crew jumped on him at $81 for FTS and LTS yesterday but we like the play so much – the $61 and $51 for FTS and LTS is still good enough to take! Nicholls has scored a try this season, Dolphins middle forwards have scored 4 in 4 games and with JMK fit and firing – we’re confident in Nicholls tonight!
Mam is still $3.70 for ATS – his career strike rate would have him under $2, our model has him at $2.75 and all the other bookies on our OCT have him at $2.75 or under!
For the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer prices on Neds – Nikorima is still $14, Katoa is now $14 (gone up) and Marshall-King is $15 on Neds and TAB (which we still love).
Jesse Bromwich is $81 for FTS & LTS on Dabble & Bet365. Again – we love JMK as a hooker who puts middle forwards over + this game should be played through the middle early, we’re hoping the old boy can crash over at a juicy price!
Wicky Preview Wed 10/4 – The Broncos are missing Mariner and Adam Reynolds and most likely also missing Jordan Riki. The Dolphins will be missing Farnworth and F Kaufusi with Flegler a possibility to also miss the blockbuster clash. Reece Walsh does return for the Broncos though. We think it’ll be a close game although the line favours the Broncos by around 8 points.
Warriors v Manly
Sat 13/4, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Taniela Paseka FTS @ $67 on Pointsbet
Josh Aloiai FTS @ $65 on Topsport
Anytime Try Scorer – Addin Fonua-Blake @ $6.25 on Sportsbet
Game Day Picks:
Taniela Paseka + Josh Aloiai LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Corey Waddell 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $15 on Neds
Toa Sipley FTS 2nd half @ $51 (widely available)
Wicky Game Day Update Sat 13/4 – Our picks from earlier in the week (Paseka and Aloiai) are now available for FTS and LTS @ $67 on Bet365. Aloiai has a better try scoring strike rate but we love Paseka’ running style. Fonua-Blake is still $6.25 on Sportsbet – he’s $5.25 or less on most other bookies. He’s scored 2 tries in 5 games already this season and 11 in 31 games since R1, 2023.
We’ve also added Corey Waddell at $15 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on Neds. It’s similar to seeing $45 for FTS. He’s $34 on most bookies. He scored in 4/10 games when starting in the 2nd row in 2023 and has scored 2 tries in 5 games this season – playing off the bench and averaging 34 mins per game in 2024!
Toa Sipley loves hunting for the line when Manly have good field position. He barged over from dummy half in Manly’s preseason trial and has had 225 run metres and 6 tackle breaks in 2 games – we think the $51s is a decent price but we love the pick here!
Wicky Preview Wed 10/4 – This game should be a great contest. The Warriors are now 3-2 after winning three straight and Manly is coming off a 13+ win against the Panthers who were almost at full strength aside from Nathan Cleary. The line is set at -6.5 with the Warriors currently but we definitely think Manly could come closer than that, and even win. They’re missing Reuben Garrick and the Warriors are missing Bunty Afoa, however, they are getting DWZ & Capewell back.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Join Wicky’s NRL Supercoach League!
Eels v Cowboys
Sat 13/4, 5.30 pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Anytime Try Scorer – Kyle Feldt @ $2.25 on Bet365
Game Day Picks:
Shaun Lane FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Joey Lussick FTS @ $41 on Dabble + LTS @ $41 on Sportsbet & Dabble
Griffin Neame FTS2H @ $41 on Pointsbet
Wicky Game Day Update Sat 13/4 – Feldt is still $2.25 on Bet365. We mentioned the Eels defensive struggles on their left edge below. We’ll be including the Cowboys right side players in our same game multi which we’ll post in our free Discord community in the hour before the game.
We’ve added Neame as FTS2H @ $41. He’s done it 3 times in 49 games. He chased a grubber for a try a couple of weeks ago, he’s a good hole runner and he can crash over using his strength as well.
Shaun Lane has scored 1 try in 5 games this year but we’re hoping Dylan Brown plays to his strengths here and looks to put Lane over. We love the $34s for FTS and LTS here. Joey Lussick has already scored the first try in 2024 (R2 against the Panthers). He definitely looks to crash over when the Eels are close to the line – we like this price against a Cowboys middle which has leaked a few tries through the middle. Taumalolo and McLean aren’t the most agile defenders and Neame is their only ‘Prop’ off the bench – Lussick should get 80 minutes with Brendan Hands left out again.
Wicky Preview Wed 10/4 – The Eels decided to drop Maika Sivo and their left edge will most likely have Asi, Harper and Simonsson defending with each other. All signs point to Nanai and Feldt having a field day on the right side. It was this matchup in 2022 that convinced most fans that the Cowboys were the ‘real deal’ that season – can the Cows beat a Moses-less Eels away from home? The line is currently -3.5 to the Cows and we think they can cover this easily.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Rabbitohs v Sharks
Sat 13/4, 7.35 pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tevita Tatola FTS @ $67 on Neds, on Topsport & Pointsbet
Nicho Hynes 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $ 9.5 on Neds, LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Braydon Trindall FTS + LTS @ $26 on Bet365
Peter Mamouzelos 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $16 on Neds
Anytime Try Scorer – Sione Katoa @ $2.10 on Neds & on Bet365
Game Day Pick – Tom Burgess FTS @ $61-65 (Topsport, Pointsbet)
Wicky Game Day Update Sat 13/4 – The Sharks are still missing Finucane, Uele, Hunt & Rudolf (although he COULD be a late in). We love the Rabbitohs middles to barge over today. Burgess is our game day pick – at $61 on Pointsbet and $65 on Topsport to crash over first. Tatola is still $67 on Pointsbet and Neds. Mamouzelos has now gone out to $17 on Neds for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try. Insane price for the young Bunnies hooker.
Sione Katoa is still $2.10 on Neds – he’s the winger on Hynes’ side up against a Bunnies outfit missing Trell, Cook and AJ. We love the price here. Trindall is still $26 for FTS & LTS on Pointsbet and Betr. He can score chasing kicks, following up from linebreaks or breaking the line himself. We love this price. Hynes is similar – the price for 1/2/3 and LTS are the same for him.
Wicky Preview Wed 10/4 – The Rabbitohs are missing Latrell Mitchell (suspended – 3 games), Damien Cook (dropped) and Thompson (dropped). They’ve got Cody Walker with 3 rookies in their spine. And their outside backs, aside from Jack Wighton, have struggled to have any impact in 2024. The Sharks have Rudolf and Uele on an extended bench. If one or both of them do return, we think they’ll convincingly beat this Rabbitohs outfit which is apparently on the verge of losing their coach. With Mal Meninga apparently set to become their Interim Coach!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
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