Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 4 of the 2024 NRL season.
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Eels v Wests Tigers
Mon 1/4, 4pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Stefano Utoikamanu FTS & LTS @ $51 (widely available)
John Bateman FTS @ $41 on Bet365 & Neds
Shaun Lane 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $12 on Neds
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Shaun Lane @ $5.25 on Neds
Wicky Preview Wed 27/3 – Mitch Moses has been ruled out for up to 2-3 months and Cartwright might miss the game also. We love the price for big Stefano – one of the best young try scoring middle forwards in the NRL! The Shaun Lane price won’t last till game day – clear value on Neds.
Update Sat 30/3 – Bateman likely won’t be on the edge at the end of the game so LTS @ $41 wasn’t meant to be a tip, was a typo. We’ll count it to our bets tracker but will keep the tip above Bateman FTS @ $41.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Roosters v Panthers
Thu 28/3, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Liam Martin FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Luke Garner FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Matthew Eisenhuth FTS2H @ $71 on Sportsbet
Mitchell Kenny FTS @ $51 on Bet Right & Neds
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Joseph Suaalii ATS @ $3.90 on Neds
Wicky Preview Wed 27/3 – Both sides have a few key outs. Cleary, Sorenson & JFH for the Panthers. Leniu & Collins for the Roosters. Our late mail article will update you on injury news + which side of the field players are on!
Wicky Update Thu 28/3 – 630pm. Price updates – Garner & Martin are both still $34 for FTS & LTS on Bet365! Kenny is still $51 for FTS on Neds. Matthew Eisenhuth has jumped out to $81 for FTS 2nd Half on Sportsbet! We love the price here, originally tipped at $71. Suaalii is $3.90 on Neds still – no other bookie has him over $3.50!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day. We’ll also have a long weekend multi to follow along for the weekend!
Rabbitohs v Bulldogs
Fri 29/3, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Cam Murray FTS & LTS @ $31 (Topsport & Dabble) & LTS @ $31 (Dabble)
Jacob Preston FTS @ $26 on Bet365
Drew Hutchison FTS & LTS @ 41 on Bet365
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Cody Walker @ $3.90 on Bet365
Game Day Pick – Viliame Kikau FTS @ $29 on Bet365
Wicky Update Fri 29/3, 940am – Cody Walker is still $3.90 on Bet365. If you by his career strike rate, he should be priced at $2.55. He’s priced at $3.25 or less on every other bookie and our model has him t $3.56. $3.90 is clear value. We also love the storyline here. The Rabbits are 0-3 and a loss on Good Friday might spell the end of careers at the club. Cody will be fired up.
Cam Murray is $31 for FTS & LTS on Dabble. The Dogs conceded most tries to middle forwards in 2023. And get this for a stat – for all players who have played atleast 30 games starting at lock, Cam Murray has the BEST strike rate, scoring a try every 4.18 games. His odds if you went by how often he’s done it would be $20 and $17 for LTS & FTS respectively. $31 may seem short – but we LOVE this play.
Jacob Preston has now scored the first try in a game 3 times in his short career. He’s now out to $29 for FTS on Bet365. He’s a great hole runner and we’re getting a great price. No brainer.
Drew Hutchison is now at $34 for FTS & LTS across most bookies. The $41 was clear value but we still like the $34s.
Our game day pick is Viliame Kikau at $29 for FTS on Bet365. We would love to tip Kikau and Preston for LTS at $29 too but there’s a chance they’ll be off the field. Kikau’s career strike rate would have him at $15 and most bookies have him in the low $20s today. We love the $29 as a price and was POTM last week for the Dogs – scoring off a chargedown!
Wicky Preview Wed 27/3 – Should be an absolute cracker on Good Friday. Dogs are coming off an impressive performance against the Titans. The Rabbits are 0-3 and the media is all over them! The Dogs have one of the weaker packs in the NRL and conceded the most tries through the middle in 2023. For that reason we love Murray and Preston who got up for us as a Premium pick for FTS – we’re going to back to the well in Round 4!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Broncos v Cowboys
Fri 29/3, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Adam Reynolds FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365 & Pointsbet
Billy Walters FTS @ $41 (Betr, Neds) & LTS @ $46 (Sportsbet) This won! Walters crashed over first to hit our first juicy FTS of the season.
Jaiyden Hunt 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $14 on Sportsbet
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Valentine Holmes ATS @ $3.5 on Neds
Game Day Pick – Griffin Neame FTS2H @ $41 on Bet Right, TAB & Pointsbet
Wicky Update Fri 29/3, 940am – We’ve added Neame at $41 for FTS2H. Get this – he’s started on the bench in 43 NRL games and he’s been FTS2H 3 times! You can see why we love the $41s here, especially against a Broncos team missing Haas, Walsh and Piakura. Holmes is still $3.40 on Neds, he looked great last week and the Cows are full of confidence with their 3-0 start. Our model’s got him at $2.79.
Adam Reynolds is still $34 for FTS & LTS. Walters is still $41 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet, Neds and other bookies. Jaiyden Hunt is still $14 for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on Sportsbet. Reynolds is based on his historical strike rate for LTS (does it one in every 21 games) but the other picks here are based off their role and the price. Hunt is replacing Piakura on the left edge for the Broncs, $14 to score any of the first three tries is a good price. Reynolds and Walters are always lurking around the ruck – there are many ways we can see them scoring. And in what should be a fast-paced game at Suncorp (the rain is meant to ease/stop today) we can see tries being scored this way or a crash over close to the line from Walters!
Wicky Preview Wed 27/3 – Another game full of injuries. Haas, Walsh and Piakura are out for the Broncos. Cotter could be a late out for the Cowboys who are 3-0. We love the price for Reynolds and Walters especially here – the Cows are on fire but Reynolds and Walters will be looking to step up with a couple of other big names missing.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Dragons v Manly
Sat 30/3, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Ben Hunt FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365
Raymond Faitala-Mariner FTS2H @ $41 on Neds + TAB
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Zac Lomax @ $2.5 on Bet365
Game Day Pick – Raymond Faitala-Mariner LTS @ $41 on Dabble, Pointsbet & Unibet
Wicky Update Sat 30/3, 9am – There are mixed reports on whether Jaydn Su’A was ruled out or not. IF he is playing, we still think RFM gets time either early in the 2nd half or late in the game on the edge, he’s been great in attack on the right edge for the Dragons. So we’re doubling down – we’d tipped him FTS2H @ $41 before (still available on Neds and Pointsbet btw) but we’re also now tipping him LTS @ $41.
Lomax is still $2.50 ATS on Bet365. Bookies are sleeping on the fact that Ravalava is now on the left wing (that doesn’t see as much ball) and Lomax has had an excellent start to the 2024 NRL season on the right wing or the Dragons. Ben Hunt is still $34 for FTS & LTS on Bet365.
Wicky Preview Wed 27/3 – Ben Hunt has scored the first try one in every 19 NRL games. The Dragons were dominant in the first half last week before being smashed by the Cows. We love the $34s for Ben Hunt FTS! Lomax is on the right wing this year, where the Dragons go way more often than the left, and looks excellent. We love him as an ATS play. Faitala-Mariner hopefully comes on and plays edge – he knocked on to stuff up the easiest try of the round (almost..Kieran Foran!!) we love him at $41 for FTS 2nd half.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Join our NRL Supercoach League!
Titans v Dolphins
Sat 30/3, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Isaiya Katoa 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $16 on Neds
Tanah Boyd 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $15 on Neds
Euan Aitken FTS @ $29 on Betr
Jesse Bromwich LTS @ $81 on Sportsbet
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Euan Aitken @ $4.60 on Neds
Game Day Pick – David Fifita ATS @ $4.75 on Sportsbet & Betr
Wicky Update Sat 30/3, 9am – So we always go on about stats and models etc. But today – throw that all out the window. David Fifita is BACK for the Titans and Sportsbet and Betr have him at $4.75 to score anytime. He may only play 40-60 minutes (Hasler said he’ll get game time today but was cryptic about how much) in his first game back from an offseason pec injury. But against a Dolphins outfit with no Tom Gilbert and a few new edge combinations in defence, we think the Titans will play ‘Fifita-ball’ with no Tino and he’ll have a few cracks at the line.
Aitken is $4.50 to score on Neds, Dabble and TAB. He’s also widely available for $26 for FTS too. We still like these prices – he’s a strong ball runner and not much of a passer. Boyd & Katoa are somehow still $16 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try – we love the value here. Jesse Bromwich is still $67 on Bet365 and Dabble for LTS. We called out the Titans middle forwards without Tino and how weak that’d be + how good Marshall-King is at putting middle forwards over. We still like the $67s for Jesse LTS!
Wicky Preview Wed 27/3 – The Titans have been humiliated in their first 2 games of 2024 and it’s been against the Dragons and the Bulldogs! What makes it worse – they’ve lost their leader big Tino to an ACL.
We love Marshall-King, the Dolphins hooker as a player to put through his middle forwards for tries. He’s already put Kerr and Nicholls over in 2024. Jesse Bromwich at $81 is a great price for last try scorer against this deflated Titans outfit.
The 1st, 2nd and 3rd try scorer prices for Katoa and Boyd won’t last – get on them as soon as you can on Neds! Aitken is a noted ball hog – we love his try scorer prices against this weakened Titans outfit.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Join our NRL Fantasy League!
Warriors v Knights
Sun 31/3, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jacob Saifiti FTS & LTS @ $67 on Dabble
Daniel Saifiti FTS @ $61 on Bet Right or Topsport
Matt Croker FTS2H @ $56 on Topsport
Game Day Pick – Adam Elliott FTS @ $56 & LTS @ $71 on Sportsbet
Wicky Update Sun 31/3 – We’ve added Adam Elliott at $56 for FTS & $71 for LTS on Sportsbet. He scored the first two tries of the game two weeks ago to win our Premium members tips at $34, $36 & $81! We love his running style and with Leo Thompson out – he’ll step up again and hopefully crash over first or last!
Jacob Saifiti is FTS @ $67 on Dabble and Pointsbet still. LTS @ $67 on Dabble. Daniel Saifiti is $67 for FTS on Pointsbet but LTS @ $51 at best across most bookies. With both of these guys – we think $51 is close to fair price, still worth playing for fun if you haven’t got on already. Anything at $61 or above is good value.
Matt Croker has got out to $61 for FTS2H on Sportsbet. Love this price. Reason why we love Croker is we literally said “he likes chasing grubbers” which is rare for a bench middle forward..and that’s how he won us a FTS2H bet in Round 21 last year!
Wicky Preview Wed 27/3 – The Warriors and Knights were the darlings of 2023 but have had a difficult start to 2024. This game is huge. All of NZ is behind the Warriors, they won’t want to lose at home. The Knights are finally building some momentum and even though they’re missing Marzhew and Leo Thompson – they’ll be hoping to get a win away from home.
Dane Gagai is a great price for ats, fts & lts. He’s been strong for the Knights in 2024. The Saifiti brothers are starting and we love them at $61 or above for fts/lts!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Sharks v Raiders
Sun 31/3, 6.15pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Josh Papalii FTS & LTS @ $51 (widely available)
Oregon Kaufusi FTS @ $61 on Pointsbet. Update – he’s now $67 for FTS & LTS on Bet365!
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Jordan Rapana ATS @ $3.40 on Bet365
Game Day Pick – Zac Hosking FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Wicky Update Sun 31/3 – We’ve added Hosking at $29 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Great price for an impressive ball runner and as we saw in Round 2 – he can jump for bombs and score too! He’ll be playing 80 in the 2nd row with Whitehead ruled out. Just confirming – Oregon Kaufusi is now $67 for FTS and LTS on Bet365 so they are both tips now. Although the Raiders pack is stronger, the Sharks are still generally the better team and we like the $67s on offer here.
Wicky Preview Wed 27/3 – The Sharks are missing 4 middle forwards and Briton Nikora. This game is ripe for a Josh Papalii try scorer pick and we’ll be looking for a good price on Hazelton or to add him to one of our custom markets or system multis!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
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