Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 11 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round.

Everything on our site is free – whether you want to join our Discord community or access any of our data tools you can do it all for free here. If you’re keen to read more about how to best use our free data tools or our approach in general, we’ve written an article to help you out. If you just want the best price & our best value try scorer NRL tips, read on!

Manly v Sharks

Sun 14/5, 4.05pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Kelma Tuilagi FTS  @ $81 & FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $67, ATS @ $9.50 on Neds (anything above $51 is decent)

Ethan Bullemor FTS2H @ $91 on Sportsbet (anything above $67 is decent) & ATS @ $15 on Sportsbet

Blayke Brailey ATS @ $8, FTS2H @ $67 on TAB

Bullemor has been impressive for Manly in Jake Trbojevic’s absence. We first noticed his running style years ago when he was a bench forward at the Broncos. He’s now back in that role and although the Sharks are deserved favourites in this one, anything above $81 is an incredible price for someone with Bullemor’s line running ability. He’s averaging almost 100 running metres and two tackle breaks a game – the signs are there for Bullemor!

Blayke Brailey is still $34 Team FTS & $41 Team LTS even though the ATS & FTS2H markets which we tipped have been crunched in. Any markets where he’s equivalent to $61 or above for FTS/LTS etc or $31 or better for Team FTS/LTS we think is clear value. Our model has him priced at $52 to score the first try and most bookies have him at $41 or less. It’s easy to see why we like the $67 on TAB!

Tuilagi was at middle forward prices but has now been moved to “normal” odds for a 2nd rower on Neds.

Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!

It's been a bloody good last week since Magic Round 😍 We just nailed Hopgood at $81! What made it sweeter – seeing everyone's winning slips on our Discord!

Check out the rest of our value plays for the weekend & join our free Discord here:https://t.co/Bi2TlLBxe9 pic.twitter.com/1KlYbJqYAZ

— Wicky (@wickyai) May 13, 2023

Storm v Broncos

Thu 11/5, 7.50pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Trent Loeiro Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $8 & First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $51 on Sportsbet

Billy Walters FTS @ $67 on Neds

Corey Paix FTS 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $67 on Neds

Billy Walters scored the second try last weekend at $67 for us, we love the price for him to score the first try at the same price this weekend. He’s priced $51 or less at most other bookies. Corey Paix – similar reasoning to Walters. He’s the Broncos bench hooker so he’ll be fresh early in the 2nd half. He’s only scored one try in 2023 but that happened to be the first try in the 2nd half in Round 3.

Trent Loeiro is priced at $6.15 or less by our model and most other bookies. The $8 for him to score anytime on Sportsbet & Dabble seems like clear value here.

Note: We’ve removed the Haas and Walters (LTS) plays as they weren’t available at the time of writing. As always, make sure you join our free Discord chat to get updates as they come through with team changes and which bookies to find the best price on!

Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!

Bulldogs v Warriors

Fri 12/5, 6pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Marata Niukore FTS @ $41 on Neds

Jacob Preston FTS + LTS @ $29 on Bet365

Reed Mahoney 2nd TS & 3rd TS @ $67 & LTS Team @ $31 on TAB

Marata Niukore is already into $34 on Neds which we still think is OK but the $41 was clear value – most bookies and our model have him at $30 or less to score the first try. Jacob Preston should be $24 to score the first try according to our model. He’s less than $20 on most other bookies. It’s clear to see why we like the $29 on offer on 365. You can get the same price for FTS & LTS there so we love the play for both markets. Reed Mahoney is priced at $34 or less by most bookies to score the first try. Our model has him at $50. On TAB, you can get him for $67 to score the 2nd and 3rd try (2 separate bets) and also $31 to score just the Bulldogs’ last try. Clear value and a player we’re happy to get on as well.

Panthers v Roosters

Fri 12/5, 8pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Mitch Kenny FTS @ $81 on TAB (Update – FTS @ $67 on Neds, LTS @ $81 on TAB)

Scott Sorenson 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12 on TAB (This bet won – Sorenson scored the 1st try!)

Jarome Luai Team FTS & LTS @ $26 (two separate bets)

Liam Martin Team FTS & LTS @ $23-26

Mitch Kenny was now $67 at best on Neds which we think is OK value. He’s still $81 for LTS on TAB which we like more, purely due to the higher price. Jarome Luai is priced around $25-30 by our model and most bookies to score the first try. On TAB, we’re getting that price for him to just score the Panthers’ first or last try (two separate bets). Clear value here for Luai who will want to put on a big performance a week out from the Origin sides being picked.

The Penrith 2nd row is going to be a tricky one to get right with our value plays with Garner and Martin on an extended bench. The way we look at 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer markets is to multiple the price by 3 and compare it to a first try scorer price. Our model has priced Scott Sorenson at $27 to score the first try. 12*3 = 36. If we saw $36 for him to score the first try, we’d think it’s good value. Liam Martin isn’t in the starting 17 but if he does play, he’ll play most or all of the game on an edge. He was priced around $41-51 for FTS type markets on TAB. If you see a number at $20+ for Team FTS or LTS or $40+ for FTS/FTS2H/LTS – we think this is clearly good value.

Rabbitohs v Tigers

Sat 13/5, 3pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Luke Brooks Team FTS & LTS @ $26 on TAB

Stefano Utoikamanu Team FTS & LTS @ $34 on TAB

Michael Chee-Kam ATS @ $6 on Sportsbet

Tavita Tatola FTS @ $81 on Sportsbet

Update Sat 13/5 – Tatola is priced in the $50s by our model and $67 or less on most bookies. We love the $81 on offer on Sportsbet for him to score first. It’s a good play at $71 or above. Chee-Kam is playing the Koloamatangi role on Souths’ right edge and we think it’s ridiculous he’s priced at $6 to score anytime on Sportsbet against the Tigers! Utoikamanu and Brooks we had as good value for team markets but they’ve been crunched in. Utoikamanu is $81 FTS & Brooks is $67 on TAB. These are OK prices if you think the Tigers can get off to a fast start.

Cowboys v Dragons

Sat 13/5, 5.30pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Josh Kerr FTS2H @ $101 on Sportsbet (anything above $81 is good)

Moses Mbye FTS @ $81 and 2nd TS @ $67 (Avoid – he’s now benched)

Chad Townsend FTS 2nd Half @ $67 on TAB

Moses Suli 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $11 on TAB

Billy Burns FTS @ $61 & ATS @ $8.75 on Sportsbet (Void – he’s not playing)

Josh Kerr at $101 to score the first try in the 2nd half is almost as good as Spencer Leniu at the same price last weekend. And we know how that turned out! Kerr is priced at $58 or less by most other bookies. He’s averaged 100 metres and a tackle break in his 9 games this season. No tries however – we’re backing him in to get one against a Cowboys side still missing Jason Taumalolo & Nanai.

Billy Burns has been named in the 2nd row again. He’s priced at $41 or less by our model and most bookies. Yet Sportsbet have him at $61. Clear value. His price to score anytime is $8.75. Most bookies, our model and his career strike rate would have him priced at $7.35 or less.

Moses Mbye is purely a numbers play. He’s likely to start at hooker before Hunt takes over so we only like the 1st or 2nd try scorer markets for him. If he’s $67 or more for either market on TAB or Neds then we think it’s decent value.

Raiders v Eels

Sat 13/5, 7.35pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Emre Guler FTS2H @ $81 on Neds

Tom Starling FTS2H @ $67 on TAB

Dylan Brown 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12 on TAB

Elliott Whitehead FTS @ $41 on Betr

Wiremu Greig, J’maine Hopgood & Junior Paulo FTS @ $81 on Sportsbet, TAB & Neds respectively. (Still good value at $71 or higher)
(Hopgood scored first @$81!)

Tom Starling is good odds at $61 or above for the FTS 2nd half market. He was $67 on TAB but is now $51 on TAB & Sportsbet. Emre Guler we think should be priced around the same. He’s $67 or less on most bookies, however, he’s still $81 on Neds to score the first try in the 2nd half. He’s in the mould of Leniu, Kerr and Royce Hunt where we think they’re in the 2nd tier of middle forward try scorers. If Tino, Josh Papali’i etc are ‘Tier 1’ and should be priced at $34-51, then we think these guys should generally be around $45-65. With the Raiders being favourites in this one, we love the $81 on offer for Guler to score first in the 2nd half.

The 3 Eels middle forwards (Greig, Hopgood & Paulo) are all a decent price at $81-101. If you can find them between $81-101 for 1st, 2nd or LTS (3 separate markets) we think they’re good picks. You can see most sites have them priced at $67 or less for these markets.

Elliott Whitehead is $34 or less at most bookies to score the first try. If you go by our model and his career strike rate – he’d be even shorter (around $25-30). It’s easy to see why we love the $41 on Betr for him to score first against an Eels side without Moses and RCG.

Knights v Titans

Sun 14/5, 2pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Dan Saifiti FTS @ $81 on Sportsbet

Tyson Frizell FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365

Kalyn Ponga 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $10

Tyson Frizell has scored 3 tries in his 6 full games in 2023. The Knights are far from the best defensive team in the NRL and with our model and most bookies pricing him at $31 or less to score the first try, it’s clear to see why we like the $34 on Bet365. Kalyn Ponga had one of the worst games in his NRL career a couple of weeks ago. But he’s still a superstar and with Origin teams about to be named, he’ll want to put on a show. $10 for him to score any of the first three tries is a great way to follow Ponga and cash in from a star desperate to remind us how good he is.

If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.

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