Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 10 of the 2023 NRL season. In this article we’ll highlight value plays for first try scorer & anytime try scorer markets in the NRL, your same game multis (SGMs) & help you with your NRL Draftstars teams for some of the biggest contests of the round.

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Roosters v Cowboys

Sun 7/5, 4pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Victor Radley 1st, 2nd or Last Try Scorer (LTS) @ $67 on TAB

Kyle Feldt ATS @ $2.90 on Bet365

Reece Robson ATS @ $6 on Sportsbet

Tom Dearden ATS @ $5.40 on Sportsbet

Chad Townsend FTS2H @ $101, Team FTS & LTS (2 bets) @ $34 on TAB

Update Sun 7/5 – Robson, Dearden & Feldt are around the same price for the anytime try scorer (ATS) plays listed above. Townsend is still $101 for FTS2H. Radley has been crunched in to $41 and is no longer value. Townsend is still $34 for Team FTS or LTS (2 separate bets).

Chad Townsend is priced at $67 or less by most bookies to score the first try. Our model and his career strike rate would have him around $55. So the $34 for him to score the Cowboys’ first or last try and the FTS 2nd Half @ $101 plays are at least 1.5x the price they should be. It’s a miracle this bet has lasted till game day – ridiculous value.

The Roosters are deservedly strong favourites for this contest but Robson ($6), Feldt ($3) & Dearden ($5.40) are all good value to score a try anytime. Feldt is our model’s favourite pick from this game at $3. He’s $2.65 or less on most other bookies and priced at $2.55 by our model – which considers the line and total for this game. The Cowboys will be desperate to save their season and should have more fans and desperation at Suncorp. If you look at their career strike rates only – Dearden and Robson would be priced at $3.67 and $4.56. Yes they are underdogs in this one – but we like the prices for these two here.

Spencer Leniu just scored the first try in the 2nd half and we'd suggest it as a great value play at $101 🔥 To check out our data tools, content and join our free discord, go to our linktree. It's all for FREEhttps://t.co/Bi2TlLBxe9#sportsbet #rugbyleague pic.twitter.com/YJ19tc8aMQ

— Wicky (@wickyai) May 6, 2023

Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!

Titans v Eels

Sun 7/5, 6.25pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Tino Fa’asumaleuai ATS @ $8.50 on Sportsbet

Wiremu Greig FTS @ $65 on Topsport

Moeaki Fotuaika 1st, 2nd or Last Try Scorer @ $101 on TAB (3 bets)

Sun 7/5 – Greig is now even better odds ($71 on Sportsbet). Tino is $8.50-8.75 on Sportsbet and Dabble. Fotuaika is still the same price for the above markets.

Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!

Bulldogs v Raiders

Fri 5/5, 6pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Zac Woolford First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $67 on Neds

Elliott Whitehead FTS @ $34 & ATS @ $6 on Sportsbet

Josh Papali’i Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $8.75 on Sportsbet

Tom Starling First Try Scorer 2nd Half (FTS2H) @ $67 on TAB

Update Fri 5/5 – Woolford is now $51 at best and no longer good value. Whitehead is $31 on Topsport and Dabble to score the first try – this is decent value still. For the anytime try scorer market – Papali’i is $8.50 and Whitehead is still $6. Both on Sportsbet and both still good value.

Josh Papali’i has the best strike rate for try scoring amongst all middle forwards in the NRL. He’s scored in 34 of 167 games since 2016. If you went by his strike rate – his odds should be less than $5. We’re getting $8.50 here for a game in which the Raiders are favourites and the Dogs have a significantly weaker forward pack.

Considering the Dogs’ weak pack – we love the price for Tom Starling to score the first try in the 2nd half. He loves a scoot from dummy half, similar to Damien Cook. He’s priced at $31 or less on most bookies. He’s scored first in the 2nd half twice in his 71 NRL games already. Clear value for a noted ball runner.

Elliott Whitehead’s strike rate would suggest his odds for first & anytime try scorer should be closer to $25 and $5. Our model and most bookies have him priced pretty much around those numbers. In a game where we think the Raiders have a clear edge due to their pack – we love the $31 and $6 for him to score and first and anytime respectively.

Manly v Broncos

Fri 5/5, 8.05pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Sean Keppie 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one market) @ $67, Team FTS & LTS @ $67 (two separate bets) on TAB

Tom Flegler 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one market) @ $41 on TAB

Taniela Paseka First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $126 on Sportsbet, Team FTS & LTS @ $67 (two separate bets) on TAB

Josh Aloiai Team FTS & LTS @ $67 (two separate bets) on TAB

Billy Walters 1st, 2nd or Last Try Scorer (LTS) @ $67 on TAB (three separate bets) Walters scored the 2nd try @ $67!

Kelma Tuilagi ATS @ $7.75 on Neds ($7.5 on TAB & SB)

Cooper Johns FTS @ $67 on Neds

Update Fri 5/5 – Tuilagi is now $8 on Sportsbet. Johns is still $67 on Neds for FTS. Walters is now into $41 from $67 and is no longer value. For Flegler, Aloiai, Keppie and Paseka – if their price is $51 for Team FTS/LTS or $101 for FTS etc or above then we think they’re great value. They should be at those prices on Sportsbet/TAB/365.

Tuilagi and Johns are two of our model’s best value plays for this game. We’ve chosen to take Tuilagi to score a try anytime as we think he’s more likely to score. We’ve picked off Johns at a high price to score first at $67 as we think he’s a less likely try scorer. Anything around the $67/$8 for FTS & ATS for them is a good value play though.

The middle forwards in this game are priced ridiculously well. Josh Aloiai has the best try scoring strike rate (look at “ATS Historical” in the OCT), Taniela Paseka is a beast and we love his running style. Keppie scored Manly’s only try last week and Flegler has really stepped up for the Broncos this season. The reason we like these picks at around $101 for First Try scorer (or equivalent prices for different markets) is varied – but they are all good value.

Warriors v Panthers

Sat 6/5, 3pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Marata Niukore FTS @ $51 on Neds

Spencer Leniu FTS 2nd Half @ $101 on TAB (This won at $101!)

Update 6/5 – Niukore’s been a good price and been in our value plays for the last couple of rounds. He’s the right side back rower for the Warriors, next to Shaun Johnson. Johnson’s wound back the years and put his right side back rower over a few times in the last month and we love the $51 for Niukore to crash over first.

Spencer Leniu has scored the first try in the 2nd half 3 times in his 69 NRL games. He’s on the extended bench at the moment, but if he makes the bench then this is an incredible price for one of the best up and coming power forwards in the NRL. To give you a point of reference – no Penrith forward is paying more than $67 for any of the try scorer markets. The $101 for him to crash over for the first try in the 2nd half is 1.5-2x what it should be.

Sharks v Dolphins

Sat 6/5, 5.30pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Jesse Bromwich 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer (one market) @ $51 on TAB & LTS @ $101 on TAB/365 (Void –ruled out due to injury)

Royce Hunt 1st, 2nd or LTS (3 bets) @ $81 on TAB

Update Sat 6/5 – There are some good prices between $71-101 for middle forwards in this contest. With Jesse Bromwich ruled out, we might see Wallace or Ese’ese start in his place. They’re both two guys we like as try scorer picks, especially Wallace. When we successfully tipped Mark Nicholls to score the first try in the 2nd half at $101 a couple of weeks ago, we also tipped Wallace at $67. Wallace scored right after Nicholls. As always, we’ll announce the exact plays on our free Discord after final teams depending on who’s starting.

Royce Hunt planted the ball on the ground two weeks ago when we’d tipped him to score the first try in the 2nd half at $81 but it wasn’t awarded a try. He’s now been crunched into $54 or less on most sites, which we don’t think is a good price. However, he is still $41 to score the Sharks’ first or last try (2 bets) which we think is decent value still.

Storm v Rabbitohs

Sat 6/5, 7.45pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Cam Murray 1st, 2nd & LTS @ $67 on TAB (3 bets)

Trent Loeiro ATS @ $8.25 on Sportsbet + FTS @ $67

Update Sat 6/5 – Trent Loiero is still $8 to score anytime on Sportsbet and $67 to score the first try on TAB which we love. Murray has been crunched into $41 which is no longer great value. Loeiro is a standout value play at $67 to score the first try. Our model and most bookies have him around $40.

We would love to get on Tatola, Burgess and Arrow at $101 on TAB but we’ll wait till final team lists to lock these in. Depending on who’s starting and benched – the $101 for FTS or FTS2H or the $51 for Team FTS/LTS all seem like decent value plays. You’ll find the exact plays an hour before kick off when teams are finalised on our free Discord.

Tigers v Dragons

Sun 7/5, 1.50pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Stefano Utoikamanu ATS @ $10 on TAB + Team FTS & LTS @ $41 (2 separate bets)

Asu Kepaoa LTS @ $41 on Dabble

Josh Kerr FTS2H @ $101 on TAB

Ben Murdoch-Masila FTS2H & LTS @ $71 on Sportsbet

Billy Burns FTS @ $41 + ATS @ $6.50 on Sportsbet

Update Sun 7/5 – Stefano is into $8 to score anytime which we still think is decent value. The $67 FTS markets may be a better value play now though. Burns is $41 FTS and $6.75 on Dabble – he’s shorter now on Sportsbet. Kerr is now around $51 on most sites for FTS2H – we think this is OK, if you see him at $65 or higher he’s definitely worth getting on. Murdoch-Masila & Kepaoa are still available at similar prices on Sportsbet.

The two high risk and reward plays are Murdoch-Masila and Kepaoa. There’s a chance that Murdoch-Masila finishes the game on an edge and Kepaoa fills in for Talau at some point in the backs, given that’s where he’s played for most of this season. Talau’s played 2 games off the bench for around 30 minutes each whereas Kepaoa’s played bulk minutes in the backs. Kepaoa’s also $7 to score anytime on Dabble. Both of these prices would be around 2-3x the price they should be if these two play in the positions we’d like them to at some point in the game.

Billy Burns is the best value play in this game. Starting on an edge against the Tigers – anything above $5.50 for ATS & $34 for FTS (and similar markets like FTS Team at anything above $16 etc) is great value. Our model and most bookies have the second rowers in this game around the $5 & $30 mark for ATS & FTS. With two struggling teams – we love the $41 and $7 available for Burns for FTS & ATS respectively.

Stefano Utoikamanu has been a value play almost every round in 2023. His career strike rate is ultra impressive and up against the Dragons, we still like the $8 to score anytime on TAB (he was $10+ before). The $67 for first try scorer (and 2nd ts, LTS etc) is probably a better value play now though given he’ll likely only play the first and last ~25 minutes. Official play after final teams – Team FTS & LTS @ $41 on TAB

If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.

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