Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 1 of the 2024 NRL season.
Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.
Dolphins v Cowboys
Sun 10/3, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tom Flegler FTS @ $67 & LTS @ $61 on Bet Right
Ray Stone LTS @ $61 on Pointsbet
Reece Robson 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $15 on Playup
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Valentine Holmes ATS @ $3.05 on Neds
Game Day Pick – Kodi Nikorima FTS + LTS @ $34 on multiple bookies.
Wicky Preview Sun 10/3 – Our game day pick is Kodi Nikorima @ $34 for first and last try scorer (separate plays). Nikorima had 17 try assists in 2023 – more than twice the next best player. He’s always had a strong running game – whether it’s taking the line on or supporting a linebreak or an offload. We love the $34 for him FTS or LTS today in what should be more of an open game than most this round so far! He’s won this spot over Katoa also – he should be full of confidence!
Tom Flegler is $56 at best on Sportsbet which is OK – he did score first twice last season for the Broncs and JMK is a great hooker for setting up middle forwards for tries. We love the $71 available for him to score last though, also on Sportsbet. Ray Stone is now $51 for LTS at best, which we still think is OK to get on. Robson has been crunched in for 1/2/3 try scorer markets but if you want to cheer this on, he’s $41 on Dabble for FTS which we love also. Holmes is now $3.10 on Neds. Our model has him at $2.50 and most bookies have him at $2.90 or less – the $3.10 is clear value.
Same Game Multi
We nailed BOTH our same game multis paying $10 and $11 for the Vegas Games. We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel!
Manly v Rabbitohs
Sun 3/3, 1.30pm (AEDT)
Try Scorer Value Tips
Luke Brooks First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $34 on Bet Right, Sportsbet & on Betr
Josh Aloiai FTS & LTS @ $67 on TAB & UniBet
Tom Burgess FTS 2nd half (FTS2H) @ $67 on Pointsbet
Luke Brooks Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $6.75 on Sportsbet This won!
Sat 2/3 pick – Karl Lawton FTS2H @ $51 on Sportsbet
Wicky Preview Wed 28/2 – We’ll do a more detailed writeup closer to game day (Sunday). But the key reasoning for the picks above is Brooks is on the left edge for Manly running at Ilias, Kennar and Gagai – clearly Souths’ weaker edge. We love Aloiai’s running style and historical try scoring strike rate. And Tom Burgess coming on and running at the Sea Eagles’ bench forwards.
Sat 2/3 Update – Our ‘game day pick’ is being done a day earlier as we’ll be watching the game with the NRL SC crew at the Star (Sydney) on game day! Karl Lawton was tipped to our Premium subscribers earlier in the week at $46. He’s now $51! Croker’s had a limited off-season and Lawton will hopefully get a chance at running at tired Bunnies bench forwards including Tom Burgess, Moale & Havili who aren’t known for their agility in defence!
Same Game Multi
Will be up on our free discord server by 12pm Sydney time!
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Roosters v Broncos
Sun 3/3, 3.30pm (AEDT)
Try Scorer Value Tips
Spencer Leniu FTS @ $67 on Bet Right + LTS @ $81 on Sportsbet
Billy Walters FTS @ $41 on Pointsbet
Kobe Hetherington FTS2H @ $67 on Sportsbet
James Tedesco ATS @ $3.50 on Sportsbet
Sat 2/3 pick – Terell May FTS2H @ $67 on Sportsbet
Check back in on game day for our last try scorer pick or join our Discord
Wicky Preview Wed 28/2 – We’ll do a more detailed writeup closer to game day (Sunday). But the key reasoning is Leniu’s try scoring stats are impressive so far in his career and we love the price for him FTS & LTS after being named to start in his Roosters’ debut. We like Walters and Hetherington generally for try scorer markets and their price is clearly higher on the bookies noted above than others. Tedesco’s model and historical value is incredible – our clear pick for the best anytime try scorer play this weekend.
Sat 2/3 Update – Our ‘game day pick’ is being done a day earlier as we’ll be watching the game with the NRL SC crew at the Star (Sydney) on game day! Terell May had a huge finish to the 2023 season, carrying the Roosters pack during the NRL finals. He scored a try late in the season as well. We love the $67 on offer for him to crash over first in the 2nd half!
Same Game Multi
Will be up on our free discord server by 12pm Sydney time!
Need a leg up in NRL Fantasy? We’ve teamed up with NRL Fantasy Scout & Kyle from our community to run through the best picks from each game in one handy article!Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
Knights v Raiders
Thurs 7/3, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Adam Elliott FTS & LTS @ $67 on Playup
Josh Papalii FTS & LTS @ $67 on Pointsbet
Pasami Saulo FTS2H @ $81 on TAB
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Dane Gagai @ $3.75 on TAB
Game Day Pick – Greg Marzhew ATS @ $1.80 on Bet365
Wicky preview Thu 7/3 – We love Elliott, Papalii and Saulo at the prices quoted above. We generally say 10% below the prices for high odds plays are still clear value. Gagai is running at the Raiders’ weak defensive edge and our game day pick, Marzhew is the left side winger for the Knights. Ponga loves hitting his left winger and Best isn’t a bad centre to have inside him! Our model loves him too – $1.80 for a player our model has at $1.47!
Same Game Multi
We nailed BOTH our same game multis paying $10 and $11 for the Vegas Games. We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel!
Warriors v Sharks
Fri 8/3, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Mitch Barnett LTS @ $61 on Playup
Blayke Brailey FTS & LTS @ $61 on Playup
Tom Hazelton FTS2H @ $51 on TAB
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Sione Katoa @ $2.80 on Neds
Game Day Pick – Ronaldo Mulitalo ATS @ $2.35 on Neds
Wicky’s Preview Fri 8/3 – Our game day pick Mulitalo is priced at $1.90 by our model, his career strike rate would have him priced at $1.73 so it’s clear to see why we like the $2.35 on Neds!
Katoa is still $2.70 on Neds which is great value (historical and model priced around $1.98-2.12). The middle forwards’ prices have dropped quite a bit, it’s why we always say to get on these juicy prices on Wednesday evening’s when we release our OCT, Punter’s Preview podcast + article! We’d still take Barnett at $51, Brailey at $45 and Hazelton at $41 or above. You can find the best prices on our free odds comparison tool.
Same Game Multi
We nailed BOTH our same game multis paying $10 and $11 for the Vegas Games. We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel!
Storm v Panthers
Fri 8/3, 8.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tui Kamikamica FTS & LTS @ $81 on Playup
James Fisher-Harris LTS @ $81 on Playup
Lindsay Smith FTS2H @ $61 on Sportsbet
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Brian To’o ATS @ $2.15 on Neds
Game Day Pick – Izack Tago ATS @ $3.25 on Playup
Wicky’s Preview Fri 8/3 – Things don’t always go to plan but this game has gone PERFECTLY for us. As we said in our poddy, Munster was ruled out and therefore the Panthers right side picks are looking like absolute gold. To’o is still $2.10 on Neds and $2.15 on Pointsbet – our model has him priced at $1.68 and his career strike rate would have him at $1.90. We’ve added Tago at $3-3.25 on Pointsbet, Dabble & Playup. Our model and his career strike rate would both have him priced at $2.68. Clear value with the numbers and in Tago and To’o we have the right side centre and winger running at the weaker defensive left edge for the Storm with Cam Munster missing!
Kamikamica is still LTS @ $67 on Sportsbet, FTS @ $67 on Betr. Fisher-Harris is still $67 for LTS on Sportsbet. Lindsay Smith is still $61 for FTS2H on Bet Right & Sportsbet. Remember with middle forwards – these are based more on the price, so avoid these plays if they are more than 10-15% lower than what we’ve tipped them at!
Same Game Multi
We nailed BOTH our same game multis paying $10 and $11 for the Vegas Games. We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel!
Eels v Bulldogs
Sat 9/3, 5.30pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jacob Preston FTS @ $34 on Bet Right & on Bet365 + LTS @ $34 on Bet365
J’maine Hopgood FTS @ $51 on Bet Right & on Betr
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – J’maine Hopgood ATS @ $10 on Bet Right
Game Day Pick – Stephen Crichton ATS @ $3.90 on Bet365
Wicky Preview Sat 9/3 – We’ve added Stephen Crichton as our game day pick. He’s priced at $3.90 on Bet365 whereas our model has him priced at just over $3 and his career strike rate would have him priced at just over $2. There are some games on the wing in there and also he’s moving from the Panthers to the Dogs! Hopefully the trend of underdogs getting up continues and Captain Crichton can get over for a try today. J’Maine Hopgood is a part of our Bet Right custom market (any of Hopgood, Yeo or Tino to score) so we’re hoping he can get over! He’s $7.75 at best on Sportsbet to score anytime now which we still think is decent value against a Bulldogs side which let a lot of tries through the middle. Also, the Eels have a 2nd rower and a hooker on the bench so Hopgood should see 60+ minutes.
Preston is still $34 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 and Hopgood is $41 for FTS on Bet365. Preston scored the first try on a Saturday in Round 2 almost a year to the day! He scored FTS twice in his rookie season – we love the $34 for him. $41 for Hopgood is still decent.
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Same Game Multi
We nailed BOTH our same game multis paying $10 and $11 for the Vegas Games. We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel!
Titans v Dragons
Sat 9/3, 7.35pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tom Eisenhuth FTS @ $41 on Neds, on Betr & Pointsbet
Jack de Belin LTS @ $67 on Pointsbet
Jaydn Su’A FTS2H @ $29 on Topsport
Anytime Try Scorer Pick – Tino Faasuamaleaui ATS @ $6 on Bet Right & Playup
Game Day Pick – Raymond Faitala-Mariner FTS @ $51 on Playup, $41 on Bet365
Wicky Preview Sat 9/3 – We’ve added RFM at $51 to score first. Playup aren’t the best at letting people on for try scorer markets so we’ve also listed the $41 on Bet365 which we still love against the Titans. We sent this tip to our Premium members last night when the news hit that he’ll be starting in the 2nd row. Tino is now $6.50 on Sportsbet to score anytime. He was also part of our Bet Right custom market so we’ll be cheering him on! He scores a try 1 in every 4.74 NRL games, the 6.50 is a great price especially considering it’s against a Dragons team playing away from home and missing Lawrie as well!
Jaydn Su’A is now paying $29 on Bet Right to score first in the 2nd half. He looked good in the trials and when he’s not injured – we always love him as a try scorer. De Belin is paying $61 for LTS on Sportsbet. Lawrie isn’t playing so he should get bulk minutes today, so we still really like this price.
Tom Eisenhuth has now been named at lock so we wouldn’t recommend getting on unless his price hits $55 or higher at the least.
Same Game Multi
We nailed BOTH our same game multis paying $10 and $11 for the Vegas Games. We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel!
Join our NRL Fantasy League!
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
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