NRL Fantasy Watch: Round 1 2024
NRL Fantasy Scout, Wicky & Kyle28 will be bringing you the most important news every week to help you with your NRL Fantasy teams.
This week – we’ve covered key news from each club’s team announcement, a quick look at Wicky’s team reveal and notes on the Vegas games!
Dolphins v Cowboys
Sun 10/3, 4.05pm
Dolphins
Jake Averillo has been left out of the 17, with Niu and Farnworth preferred at centre.
There is some value in Tesi Niu at $424K with the WFB/CTR dual. He is priced at 30.7 but has a career average of 37 at centre. If you think he can get up around a 40 average, he could be a solid option at either WFB or CTR.
Cheap WFB Bostock has been named, but will have to rely heavily on tries to score well. JMK looks set for an 80 minute hooker role, but Plath on the bench is capable of replacing him if they choose to do so.
Potential value pick Euan Aitken misses out, with Connelly Lemuelu preferred. Flegler has been talked about potentially getting more minutes with Gilbert out (ACL Injury), however it’s tough to see with 4 capable middle forwards on the bench.
Probably best to stay away from Ray Stone as it looks like he’s in line for about 50 mins and averaged just 37 pts in 50 mins last season.
Cowboys
No surprises in this Cowboys lineup. Cotter looks to be the best value Fantasy option with just 2 middle forwards named on the bench. However Granville will most likely spend time in the middle.
After being named captain, we could see Cotter back to a 60 minute role which should see him tick up towards a 50 point average.
There may be some value in Robson after an off season in 2023, dropping from a 55 average to just 48 last season.
Luki looks set for a 60 minute role, with Finefeuiaki named on the bench. However if he maintains his PPM from last season, this would see him average 47 pts, which is 11 pts of value on his breakeven.
Taumalolo is another option if you’re looking for a punt. Priced at just 34, there’s plenty of value if you think he can return to his tackle-busting best.
Nakul from Wicky reveals his NRL Fantasy Team for 2024
After one of my best finishes in my 15 year NRL Fantasy career in 2023, I’m hoping to crack the Top 100 this season! But as always, I’ll be looking to take the aggressive route and take a different way to the top!
Going with the crowd
Cleary as Captain, Piakura, Tupouniua, Wong, Burbo, Strange, Ponga, Kini, Flanagan, Chan, Salmon & Sam Hughes are my ‘mainstream’ picks.
Out of these – I think Burbo, Strange, Flanagan, Chan and Salmon are must-haves. At that price, these guys have the role for the next few weeks so I think there’s no point over thinking it.
Ponga is a high priced WFB, although, with the FB role and goal kicking I think he’s a must have.
Even though Piakura got 0 (HIA), Tupouniua and Wong both had injury issues and didn’t play the whole game – I stick by those decisions. Hopefully they’re all OK to play the next game.
Kini may only get 3 games before being booted but with a lack of cheapies, I’m happy to back him in with a favourable early draw and at that price.
POD Moves
I won’t try and convince everyone to follow me here, but I thought it’d be cool to explain my decision making!
Marzhew and Kiraz – these two are the players i’m most excited to watch in 2024. A combined 3.3% ownership.
Kiraz’s sample size is so low – but the first few weeks of 2023 when he wasn’t injured and was in freakish form on the wing & the last month of the season when he was playing centre gives me faith he could come close to a 50 average.
For a dual position WFB/CTR for a (hopefully) improving Bulldogs side – I love this punt.
With Marzhew, it’s an even easier sell. He averaged 200 run metres, 8.6 tackle breaks and a try a game in 2023! Funnily enough – his NRL Fantasy average was actually 5 points higher WITHOUT Ponga. So it’s not like he was dependent on him to feed him the ball on Ponga’s preferred left edge.
Although Hynes isn’t a POD – seemingly going for Cleary and Hynes and missing Haas and Grant is a POD move. I think Hynes is a must have. People are talking about Hynes’ numbers without Trindall being 5-10 points higher across 2022 and 2023. That is a fair argument.
My argument for having him in your side is that he’s got huge upside, especially against weaker sides. He likely won’t play Origin. There’s a ton of value in the forwards – i’m happy to essentially miss Haas to lock in Hynes to my team for the season!
A quick summary on a few of my lesser owned players. The Cowboys pack will have some minutes up for grabs with Hess missing the season due to his ACL injury. Taumalolo is only 30 and I think he can improve his form this season and could likely get some more minutes.
Morgan Smithies made 50 tackles in last year’s Super League Grand Final, is a tackle bot and with Horsburgh and Whitehead missing the first 3-4 weeks, I think he could get on a roll early.
If he goes back to only 30-40 minutes when they’re both back, we can trade him out. For now – let’s hope he’s the next Shaun Fensom!
Koroisau – I honestly didn’t want Grant and didn’t love any other options at Hooker. With Koroisau having the goal kicking and the Tigers (SURELY) gelling better with him after a torrid 2023, I think he can organically average around 5 points higher.
If he consistently plays 80, he could creep up towards that 56-59 average he had during 2020 and 2021 with the Panthers.
NRL Vegas Recap
Top Scorers:
L.Mitchell 81
H.Olakau’atu 70
R.Garrick 68
C. Murray 62
D.Cook 60
Sea Eagles:
Tom Trbojevic looked solid for Manly, threatening to score on multiple occasions. A 54 without a try are good signs for owners.
Younger brother Ben Trbojevic proved to be huge value at $250k, scoring 53 pts in 71 minutes. Reuben Garrick is one to keep an eye on, scoring 68 at centre.
Rabbitohs:
Latrell Mitchell was huge, scoring an 81 to open the 2024 season. He looks to be one of the top WFB guns again this season.
Tatola was a fairly popular pick at MID, but only managed to produce 32 pts in 43 mins. Reliable guns Cam Murray and Damien Cook did well, producing 62 and 60 pts respectively.
Top Scorers:
P.Haas 76
J.Manu 75
J.Riki 63
T.May 62
A.Reynolds 58
Roosters:
The Chooks impressed in Vegas, with Manu opening the scoring and racking up 75 pts. Tedesco was heavily involved, scoring 53 pts without a try. Brandon Smith scored well, with 47pts in 54mins. Owners would’ve liked slightly more minutes from him, but the Roosters were short on interchanges due to injuries to both Tupouniua and Wong.
Tupouniua scored just 22 pts in 43mins, whereas Wong scored well with 43 in 52 mins. We’ll dive deeper into their expected minutes in next week’s TLT article if either are fit to play.
Terrell May had a boost in minutes due to these injuries and was huge, scoring 62 in 54 mins. Whereas Leniu scored just 27 in 42mins and could be looking at a suspension due to a racial slur.
Broncos:
A lot of coaches were stung early with the Piakura 0 pointer due to a head knock. This forced Carrigan onto the edge and boosted minutes for Haas and Jensen as they went on to score 76 and 52 respectively.
Cheap pick Jesse Arthars scored 40 without a try which will see him begin to rise in price. Reece Walsh scored a try and try assist on his way to 54 pts. Jordan Riki is one to keep an eye on, scoring 63 pts almost solely in base stats (Metres + Tackles)
Knights v Raiders
Thu 7/3, 8pm
Knights
Back 5 as expected, with Tuala winning the wing spot over the likes of Jenkins/Armstrong/Mapapalangi, denying us of a potential cheapie.
Really like Kalyn Ponga as an option here, priced at 55 but averaged 63 last season when playing fullback.
Dylan Lucas named to start, but has been confirmed that he will split time on the edge with Kai Pearce-Paul, so one to avoid for now.
The bench composition looks fairly good for Adam Elliott’s minutes, with Cogger, KPP and Hetherington all being either non-middle forwards and/or low minute players. Elliott should see around 60 mins, giving him a bit of upside at $576k.
Raiders
Lots of talking points here. Rapana named at fullback, where he averages 51.6 across his career (when playing 70+ mins).
Lots of those scores are from earlier in his career though, and he is getting older so make of that what you will. No guarantee he stays there as well.
Same can be said for the entire Raiders backline pretty much, with Sebastian Kris due back in Round 2 and capable of replacing anybody really. You would assume Kris comes back at LC, shifting Hopoate out to either wing and taking one of Cotric/Savage’s spot, but it is anyone’s guess.
Strange wins the 6 jersey, providing him with CTR/HLF DPP – must have. Fogarty still a very good option at $637k, should dominate all playmaking duties alongside his rookie five-eighth.
Danny Levi starts at hooker over Woolford. Priced at 21, would only need 40-45 odd mins to be worthwhile. At $286k, could be worth the risk as an emergency, 3rd HOK type option.
Zac Hosking also starts, after news came out that Whitehead is out for 3-4 weeks. Hosking averaged 58 points-per-game (ppg) last season when playing 70+ mins, priced at just 42 he has a lot of value.
3-4 weeks for Whitehead though is a tricky timeframe, and it’s probably just not enough to make Hosking worthwhile.
Smithies is an interesting one, getting the lock role, but with Horsburgh due back in Round 4, there’s too much uncertainty around his minutes.
Warriors v Sharks
Fri 8/3, 6pm
Warriors
Tuaupiki starts at FB, in the absence of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad who is out until Round 4 with a hamstring injury.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck gets WFB/CTR dual, but at $619k and playing in a foreign position it’s best to wait and see.
Bench looks pretty good for Tohu’s minutes, with Ale and Afoa being fairly low minute players traditionally, and Lussick spelling Egan, leaving only Walker really for significant middle minutes.
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Sharks
The big news here is Cameron McInnes starting, with Dale Finucane benched. Despite this, given the make-up of the Sharks side (carrying 4 middle forwards on the bench) it’s hard to see McInnes getting any more than 50-55 mins unless he were to spend some time at hooker.
Hynes has overcome his niggle, but is probably one to avoid to start the year, given his average with Trindall was significantly lower than his average with Moylan (see @NRLFantasyScout IG for further analysis).
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Storm v Panthers
Fri 8/3, 8.05pm
Storm
We have a new cash cow option in Joe Chan, who gets the starting edge role over the likes of Shawn Blore and Kane Bradley. Chan may have a few job security issues, but the good news is he has won the spot on merit, not injury – if the other guys were preferred they would’ve been selected. $261k for a starting backrower, you can’t go wrong.
Wishart on the bench makes Harry Grant an even more appealing option, as Garlick was probably more likely to take any meaningful minutes off Grant.
Panthers
Sommerton starts at hooker, but don’t get sucked in – Kenny is suspended for Round 1. Garner gets an edge role for now, but Sorensen will likely take back his spot when he’s fully fit.
Has been a bit of talk about Liam Henry priced at just $320k, but hard to see him getting enough minutes to be worth it.
Eels v Bulldogs
Sat 9/3, 5.30pm
Eels
The dream of having an 80 min Eels hooker is over, with both Lussick and Hands in the 17. There is a benefit of there being 2 hookers though, in that it removes an extra middle forward from the rotation. Hopgood could be the main beneficiary of this, and should get around 65 mins pretty consistently.
Simonsson was talked up a bit during pre-season, but on the wing he is no longer viable. Penisini is still a good option though, and has a decent amount of value at $582k (see average with and without Moses last year).
Bulldogs
Kiraz starts at centre, providing him with WFB/CTR dual, making a very appealing option. Averaged 47.2 last year at centre. Hutchison gets the nod at 7 over Sexton – 46.2 avg at halfback, priced at 29, close to must have.
Another player who is close to must have is Jaeman Salmon, getting the start at lock over Josh Curran. At $289k and with EDG/MID DPP, he looks like a great option.
Popular cash cow Sam Hughes is on the bench, and should make decent money pending he gets enough minutes.
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Titans v Dragons
Sat 9/3, 7.35pm
Titans
For the Titans, both Campbell and Fifita are out until Rounds 4-6, with Kini and Klese Haas being named as their replacements.
Despite both players being good options in regular circumstances, with a bye in Round 2 it makes it very tough to justify unless we get confirmation that both of the aforementioned guys were likely to return in Round 6.
Palasia starts at 13 and could provide a bit of value at $393k, but with Fotuaika and Tino being big min players + the Titans effectively having a 4 middle forward bench (Randall will join middle rotation when Verrills comes on), it is a risk.
Dragons
Kyle Flanagan starts at 6 as expected, and should provide good value (priced at 25, averages 37.7 at 5/8 historically).
Eisenhuth starts on the edge but you would think he’s merely a placeholder until Luciano Leilua returns. Viliame Fifita nabs a bench spot, and at $230k looks to be a decent cheapie.
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