Welcome to Wicky’s BBL Supercoach Watch, our round-by-round preview article of the 2023/24 season of BBL Supercoach!
In this article, we’ll run through each game in Round 8 of BBL Supercoach, breaking down picks, talking strategy, and diving into venue, opposition, matchup, and other stats to help build your team for the round.
We’re doing a whole lot more for BBL Supercoach in season 2023/24 – from podcasts to data tools – all of which you’ll find on our Linktree.
It’s your one-stop shop for all things Wicky across all sports!
Doubles: None
Byes: None
Sixers v Thunder
Fri 12/1, 7.15pm
SCG
Game Day Update Fri 12/1 – David Warner and Steve Smith have been named in their respective squads, as expected. Warner’s chopper-assisted arrival at the SCG is good news for Supercoaches – it’s your green light to trade him in. If you have him, it’s your green light to start him.
Besides the Sixers’ exclusion of the injured Tom Curran, there’s no other major squad news. The key thing to watch today is how Thunder line up with Warner in the XI – that’s vital information for Round 9. If you have the pick who’s swapped out for Warner, it’s time to make alternative plans.
That won’t be the end of it, however – Tom Kohler-Cadmore is set to leave for the ILT20 soon as well, forcing another shake up very soon. Have a think about who’s likely to keep their spot despite all this churn – it’ll be gold in the double.
It’s not as important to watch the Sixers so closely. That’s not just because they don’t have the double in Round 9 but also because Smith is straight back out after this game. The disruption will be minimal, so your Sixers plays are still viable.
***
The Thunder are the only club with a double left this season, in Round 9. Put one way, this round is the first of two opportunities to prepare for it.
Daniel Sams ($216k) is the standout pick. He still has plenty of residual ownership – 49% in the top 10%, 52% in the top 5%, 27% overall – and will only become more popular by the first lockout of Round 9.
He’s pricey but essential, and if you wait until the next round, you’re running the risk of his value rising even further to the point of becoming unaffordable. His current breakeven is 122, so make that risk calculation and your willingness to take it on accordingly.
Luckily, there’s also plenty of value at Thunder. Nathan McAndrew ($105k), Tanveer Sangha ($102k), and Ollie Davies ($100k) are all in the low-$100ks while Gurinder Sandhu ($96k) and Alex Ross ($95k) are at five-figure prices.
Cash gen is irrelevant since you’re buying for a double in the last round of the BBL Supercoach season. It’s all about affordability right now. If you want a priority order for this group, move for Sangha first – his 5% and 10% ownerships are 27% and 26% at time of writing.
He’s in the top three most popular Thunder picks, at all major rank tiers. Sangha is the only one of this group who could really hurt you now, in Round 8, if you don’t have him.
Unfortunately, based on recent form against the Sixers or at the SCG, none of this group really stands out above all the others. The best of the lot is Ross, who’s got scores of 44 and 34 in two of his last three innings v Sixers.
Ditto captain Chris Green ($162k), and he’s got the extra downside of not being cheap.
Be clear with your expectations for this lot – you’re very much buying more for the double than for this round.
In the non-Sams Thunder pace battery, McAndrew stands out for his role. As the #7 bat, he’s got a decent chance at points from his batting, compared to the others. He’s also batted in every game so far this season – his opportunities won’t be limited.
The other reason for us putting McAndrew next after Sangha in the trade priority order is his -10 breakeven. The others have much higher BEs and if you’re short on cash, McAndrew’s price rise might put him out of reach for you by the time Round 9 rolls around.
The other bowler in the mix is Liam Hatcher ($86k). He has the value but his recent exclusion from the team to face the Scorchers should make you wary in BBL Supercoach. Use this game as a scouting – or rather, sighting – opportunity to decide whether you want him for the double.
From the sticks, we’d recommend waiting for news on David Warner’s ($125k) availability. Recently retired from Test and ODI cricket, he’ll be popular for the double. That might be the time to go for him and instead use your Round 8 trade window to buy picks more certain to play.
It’s a similar story for Alex Hales ($136k). He’s a popular pick with great upside but is battling a calf issue. He’s fine to keep if you already have him – and will be vital in the double – but make sure you have a contingency plan for this round.
Tom Kohler-Cadmore ($91k) is good value but has conflicting T20 commitments in the shape of the ILT20, beginning on 19 January. You probably won’t get the entirety of what remains of the season out of him.
Having bled a lot of value, this is an excellent time to move for Cam Bancroft ($127k). But if you’re a little bit braver, you could wait until next round and get an even better deal.
At none of the major rank tiers is his ownership higher than 15%, so he can’t hurt you all that much no matter what your rank is. His breakeven is currently 77 and, given he averages 17 v Sixers since 2020, he’s a fair bet to underperform it. Bancroft’s relatively safer to go without now, and you could pick him up for even cheaper for the double.
Check out our Draftstars BBL Stats Bible with projections for every BBL game!
Thoughts on Steve Smith ($275k)? Unlike in Round 1, the fixtures have actually landed perfectly for you to make the most of Smith. Buy him now for a one-round punt and sell him for a doubler ahead of Round 9 when he departs for Test duty. With the cash he’ll free up, you can take your pick of Thunder assets the other side.
We reckon Smith’s the best pick in Round 8. In this game last season, Thunder at SCG, he blasted an unbeaten 125, with nine sixes. He’s already made 61 v Renegades this season.
Maybe aside from Tanveer Sangha – for reasons we outlined way back in Round 1 – that Thunder bowling is no threat to Smith. He’s also a cheeky shout for captaincy this round, with everyone on a single. Consider this move, at the very least.
As we’ve covered more than once before, popular pick Josh Philippe ($115k) is a decent choice in a home game at the SCG. With Tom Curran ($167k) out for the rest of the season due to injury, if you’re looking for a one-round punt among Sixers bowlers, Steve O’Keefe ($119k) is a strong shout for a wicket, a tight spell, and the resulting juicy economy rate bonus, especially at the SCG.
Alternatively, you could go for Ben Dwarshuis ($143k), who took 1-24 v Thunder earlier this season and has an excellent recent record against them in the three seasons before this one.
If you want a one-round batting punt, consider Moises Henriques ($87k), the slayer of Sydney Thunder. Since 2020, he averages 105 striking at 150 against Thunder.
Our BBL Supercoach Player Comparison dashboards help you set your choice of filters to find the best picks in BBL Supercoach – and now they’re available on a single page!
Hurricanes v Strikers
Thu 11/1, 7.15pm
Blundstone Arena
The first of the Round 7 return fixtures in Round 8, this game presents a very clear captaincy play. Matt Short ($333k) returned 0-9 from his two overs and raced to 45 (32) against the Hurricanes on Tuesday night. That’s a tidy 66 points.
As we mentioned in the last article, he averages 75 v Canes in the BBL from 2020-23. That record includes a century against them last season. And he’s Matt Short.
The fixtures have landed perfectly for a Short VC. Should he fail, there’s Aaron Hardie at Optus Stadium on Saturday afternoon to switch to.
There’s a catch though. With no club on the bye, there’s no natural way to pull off the VC loop. You need to have a non-player. Straight C on Short is hardly some POD play given his popularity. But you are taking on that additional bit of risk.
Besides Short, we reckon popular picks Chris Lynn ($211k) and Jamie Overton ($198k) are worth holding/trading in. We noted last time that Lynn has historically done well against the Hurricanes. He continued that run with 37 (26) at the Adelaide Oval on Tuesday, meaning he’s crossed 20 in every innings except his first this season.
Overton should enjoy himself as well. He took a 3-fer against them on Tuesday and, given the Hurricanes’ batting fragilities, there’s no reason why he can’t add to that bag of wickets.
Crucially, these three Strikers are all reasonably consistent away from home, even as Adelaide have struggled as a unit away from the Adelaide Oval all season. This is vital considering Strikers finish the regular season with two away games. With the fixtures no longer on their side, there’s little reason to have Adelaide picks outside these three.
You probably still have multiple leftover Canes from their Round 7 double. They’re a different beast at home, so your Hobart picks are worth holding for at least one more round.
They’ve won 2/3 games at Blundstone this year, only losing a 7-over chase to the Stars. We reckon Ben McDermott ($125k) is worth a start in this one.
He’s coming off 95* at the Adelaide Oval. From 2020-23, Strikers were his favourite BBL opponent and he averaged 50 at Blundstone (Bellerive Oval on Sundays) striking at 146.
Plus, he made 53* v Thunder here on New Year’s Day. The combination of opponent and venue is the best it’s been for McDermott all season.
If you’re feeling daring, he’s a cheeky VC for this round. If Wade remains absent, he’ll hold on to the gloves as well.
We also reckon it’s worth keeping at least one Hurricanes bowling pick for this one. The safe pick is captain Nathan Ellis ($133k). He’s the club’s top wicket taker this year – 10 scalps at 24 – and hasn’t gone wicketless in any of the three games at Blundstone.
But really any of your Canes bowlers are worth holding for one more round. They’re not a bad trade in either.
A more general note about the venue. Blundstone is a chasing ground this season – all three wins here have come batting second. Most of the wickets here come in the first innings.
The three first innings have seen 5, 10, and 8 wickets to fall compared to 4, 3, and 3 in the second (albeit in a 7-over innings in the second game).
You’ll know the outcome of the bat flip in time. We reckon it’s worth loading up on (or keeping, whatever the case may be for your team) bowlers from the first innings and top order sticks from the second innings.
If you have multiple Canes bowlers, it might be worth keeping all of them if they bowl first on Thursday night.
Need help with your Supercoach team or just want to chat sport with other fans? Come join our lively (and lovely) Discord community – 3,200+ and counting!
Scorchers v Heat
Sat 13/1, 1.15pm
Optus Stadium
The doubles all done, there’s still three major reasons to hold on to (at least some of) your Scorchers. One, they finish the regular season with two home games at Optus Stadium in the last two rounds of BBL Supercoach.
They are unbeaten here this season and these games are especially good for their bowlers. In the three games at Optus, Scorchers have taken 8, 8, and 10 opposition wickets.
Plus, Aaron Hardie ($175k) is a beast at home.
Two, Scorchers picks are still extremely popular with a ton of residual ownership. In the top 10% of Supercoaches, no less than 11 Scorchers have double-digit ownership percentages, with 8/11 over 20% at time of writing.
There aren’t many windows left for them to lose that ownership and become less of a threat. If you don’t have any Scorchers cover, they could really hurt you.
Three, they’re still in a fight for second on the ladder in the race for finals qualification. Unlike the Heat, their picks are slightly safer from rotation.
That said, the Scorcher you have to shift is Zak Crawley ($107k) – he’s left for international duty. Unfortunately, he’s lost a decent chunk of value so, if you’re short on cash, you might not be able to get very far by swapping him out.
It’s a similar story with Jhye Richardson ($137k). He’s struggled all season and isn’t a good pick on form, but his value has plummeted, which somewhat narrows your pool of options if you’re trading out now.
As we’ve covered before, the other quicks are 100% worth keeping for a game at Optus. This being the third game of the round, and the venue being a great one, Hardie is a good captaincy pick.
If you fancy a relatively cheap POD with a great role for these two games, look at Crawley’s likely replacement in Stephen Eskinazi ($129k). He’ll open the batting and is currently owned by less than 1% of Supercoaches.
Back at home, lightning is unlikely to strike twice with Cooper Connolly ($103k). His role has been extremely marginal at Perth – 19 runs, 1.5 overs, and 0 wickets in three home games this year. He’s worth shifting out as well.
Having confirmed top spot, there’s a strong chance the Heat will rotate. Even if they didn’t, it’s an away game at Perth followed by a bye in the last round.
Unless you’re keeping one of the cheaper picks around to loop in Round 9, Heat are no longer essential from here. Their picks are officially at the point where the cash you get from trading them is more valuable than the points you could get out of them. Doubly so if you use that cash and their slots to trade in Thunder picks – it’s three games in two rounds versus one.
If you really want to keep a Heat pick for this round, you could do worse than Matthew Kuhnemann ($152k). He took a wicket in each of the three games against the Scorchers last season and has 3 wickets at 22 at Optus Stadium since 2020.
Our Men’s T20 Portal breaks down batting and bowling stats by opposition, venue, and phase of game, besides batting records by bowler type and individual head-to-head matchups from T20 leagues around the world!
Renegades v Stars
Sat 13/1, 7.30pm
Marvel Stadium
The Stars’ favourable last third of the season continues with a visit to rock-bottom Renegades. Despite his high ownership, there’s actually a good chance to make some unique points off Marcus Stoinis ($105k) this round.
In both the top 5% and 10% of Supercoaches, his ownership is just shy of 50% but around 65% in both tiers have stuck him on the bench. Away at struggling Gades is one of the better fixtures in Round 8. With a breakeven of -9, you can sell in Round 9, after the incoming price rise, if you still want rid of Stoin.
If you don’t much care about form, there’s an opportunity here.
Glenn Maxwell ($261k) should be part of your XI as always and even a cheeky captaincy isn’t the worst play given the fixture. Unlike Stoinis, merely owning Beau Webster ($194k) is something of a POD. He’s not essential to start – if history is any guide, Tom Rogers will get him – and freeing up that cash is tempting, but if you like to pick on role and ownership, Webster has two big ticks for those.
If you want a two-round POD pick to finish the season, consider Dan Lawrence ($155k). He’s got scores of 50 and 36 to his name already, besides a couple of wickets. Lawrence’s role is the main argument in his favour – opening the batting and bowling a few overs is priceless at this point in the season, when no clubs except Thunder have doubles remaining.
He’s at 8% ownership in the top 5% and top 10% and just 2% overall. A breakeven of 8 further strengthens his case, especially for a one-round punt.
For the Renegades, there’s safety in Jake Fraser-McGurk ($123k) – the most owned Gades pick at all major rank tiers except the top 1% – but a shot at unique points too. His highest ownership across all those tiers is 33%. If you still have him this side of the Gades’ Round 7 bye, you’re at least a trade ahead of 2/3rds of the game when it comes to JFM.
There’s more – JFM has owned Marvel Stadium this season. In three games there, he’s made scores of 55 (23), 70 (37) and 26 (24). He’s worth holding for one more round at least.
But around him, the Renegades have seen a lot of churn in the last week. Quinton de Kock ($120k) and Mujeeb Ur Rahman ($129k) are both out of the picture. Spinner Akeal Hosein ($208k) is back – he took 13 wickets and registered an economy of 6.45 in 9 games for the Gades last season.
Hosein’s pricey but he’s a great player and a huge POD – his highest ownership in any of the major rank tiers is 6% in the top 1%.
Besides JFM and QdK, Will Sutherland ($147k) and Adam Zampa ($81k) have the most residual ownership at the Gades across most rank tiers. That’s the only real argument for them at this point, however – Sutherland has gone off the boil while Zampa, as we’ve noted before, is tidy rather than prolific at Marvel Stadium.
But if you want a one-round punt, the pick we really like is Tom Rogers ($160k). From 2020-23, he posted frankly absurd numbers against the Stars. Earlier this season, he returned 1-21 in a rain-shortened game.
A last note about Marvel Stadium. It’s chasing ground this season – all three wins here have come batting second. Unlike Blundstone, though, bowlers haven’t been as prolific in the first innings.
If you’re using this year’s trends to decide trades/who to bring off the bench, you’re better off basing decisions on the outcome of the toss and what the teams are doing, rather than individual batting/bowling picks.
Our Women’s T20 Portal breaks down batting and bowling stats by opposition, venue, and phase of game, besides batting records by bowler type and individual head-t0-head matchups from the WBBL, Super Smash, WPL, and now the Charlotte Edwards Cup!
If you want to follow more of our BBL analysis or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.