Welcome to Wicky’s BBL Supercoach Watch, our round-by-round preview article of the 2023/24 season of BBL Supercoach!

In this article, we’ll run through each game in Round 7 of BBL Supercoach, breaking down picks, talking strategy, and diving into venue, opposition, matchup, and other stats to help build your team for the round.

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Doubles: Heat, Hurricanes, Scorchers

Byes: Renegades

Heat v Scorchers

Wed 10/1, 6.40pm

The Gabba

Game Day Update Wed 10/12 – Test players Usman Khawaja and Marnus Labuschagne are in the squad for this game. Unfortunately, with the round nearly done, and Australia back in Test action soon, this isn’t much relevant for Supercoach.

Their inclusion has come at the expense of opener Josh Brown. This is bad news for the 8% of the game who have him. His ownerships in the top 10% and top 5% of Supercoaches are 7% and 5% respectively, so although the ripple effect of him missing out even at the top end of BBL Supercoach isn’t huge, it still wrecks a cheap POD play.

Also included is Jack Wildermuth. We’re yet to see if this affects the playing XI. But if the Heat lock up top spot on the ladder (which could happen tonight), we might see rotation for their remaining two games, leading to opportunities for Wildermuth and others. It could be abort mission on Heat very soon – keep a close eye on today’s game.

Scorchers, meanwhile are unchanged. It’s finally time for Jason Behrendorff to repay your faith – expect a haul from him today, as there’s a good chance he returns to the XI. We explain why below.

Perth’s next two rounds are single home games at Optus Stadium, where they are unbeaten this season. They are also in a fight to hold on to second place, so you might not see a ton of rotation. They are worth holding until the end.

***

Scorchers

Even with the risk of rotation, if you don’t have Jason Behrendorff ($179k), we reckon he’s 100% worth trading in.

A recent price fall has made him much more affordable. Scorchers play Heat back to back in Rounds 7 and 8, and they’re his favourite BBL opponent in recent years.

Laurie Evans ($111k) played a ridiculous innings at Optus Stadium against the Strikers, which might’ve convinced you to move for him for this round. Certainly, his price is great. The role’s not terrible either.

We think there’s one relevant calculation to make, though. In his short BBL career, Evans has been dismissed by Fawad Ahmed, Shadab Khan, and most recently Cameron Boyce.

If you’re confident he can negotiate Mitch Swepson, you can not only trade him in but also hold until the end of Round 8.

Heat

There’s safety in Sam Billings ($121k) because of the ownership but both Dorff and Andrew Tye match up really well to him – and he plays them back to back.

If you’re picking him, expect the majority of your returns from Bilbo game 1 of the double. Trade out after Round 7.

Any love for Spencer Johnson ($113k)? That price looks extremely tempting. It’s certainly the cheapest way into the Heat’s bowling ahead of a double.

But as with Josh Brown, be clear about your expectations with him. Johnson has only gone wicketless once this season, but he’s only taken more than a single wicket once as well.

He’s averaging 32 points this year and a 1/34 kind of performance is typical. Johnson’s floor is decent but his ceiling’s not very high.

Strikers v Hurricanes

Tue 9/1, 7.10pm

Adelaide Oval

Game Day Update Tue 9/12 – Matthew Wade isn’t named in the Hurricanes squad for game 2 of their double. That sounds fairly significant given his 17% ownership. But if you’re at a higher rank tier, it’s not much of an advantage – Wade’s ownership is only 5% in the top 5% and top 10% of Supercoaches.

Sam Hain was battling injury problems of his own but played the Heat in game 1 and is named in the squad here. The Hurricanes now play the Strikers back to back so this game is a useful source of information on which of your Hobart picks to keep for Round 8. That Round 8 game against Adelaide is at Blundstone Arena, however, where the Hurricanes are a markedly better team.

Given the Strikers’ own struggles away from home, you should weigh up both what happens in today’s game and the home ground factor next round when deciding what to do with your Canes picks moving forward.

As mentioned below, this is a fixture that both Matt Short and Chris Lynn have historically enjoyed. If you’re in the top 10%, top 5%, or top 1% of Supercoaches, you won’t get much by way of unique gains from Short. His ownership is in the high 90s in all three tiers.

But if you still have Lynn, you’ve got a decent shot at those. His ownership is 15-16% in all three above-mentioned tiers. If he plays to the level he often does against Hobart, you’ll get some unique points this round and can keep him for the next. Alternatively, he’ll clear his BE of 53 and you can trade out after a value increase.

With Test duties done for now, Alex Carey will play for the Strikers today. He’s a high ceiling player – 7 scores of 50+ including a century in the BBL since 2020. He’ll most likely bat in the middle, where he’s batted in most of his BBL appearances in that time.

Availability permitting, and with no doubles next round, you could use today’s game as a chance to scout Carey for a trade in Round 8, if you’re looking for upside and want to branch out.

***

Hurricanes

There is a third approach with your Hurricanes picks. The Gabba has seen first innings scores of 214 and 172 in its two games so far. There are runs to be had here, and Adelaide Oval is a dream batting surface.

That’s a great double for Canes batters – two high scoring grounds. Given the conditions, you could bet on Matthew Wade ($159k) and/or Mac Wright ($164k) – or Caleb Jewell ($118k)/Sam Hain ($75k) if you want a cheaper stick – catching fire with the bat.

Recent history does actually make a decent case for Jewell – Strikers are his favourite BBL opponent since 2020 and he made 54 at Adelaide Oval last season.

Your Canes picks might just come down to which/how many slots you have available. It might also decide which of these three levers you elect to pull.

Strikers

Coming out of a double, what to do with the Shorts ($318k and $124k), Jamie Overton ($190k), and Chris Lynn ($211k), the four most popular Strikers? The fixtures no longer with them and their prices hefty, the temptation is to cash out now.

That’s fair enough, and we reckon with the exception of Matt Short, none of the others are essential if you’re trading in doublers instead. But Strikers now play Hurricanes back to back in Rounds 7 and 8. If you can manage it, hold your Strikers until the end of Round 8.

Hobart are a great opponent for both Matt Short (average 75 v Canes since 2020) and Lynn (average 54). Throw in home conditions and holding looks even better.

Keeping D’Arcy Short and Overton is less essential, although on current form, the fixtures are the only real argument against them.

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Thunder v Scorchers

Mon 8/1, 7.15pm

Sydney Showground Stadium

Game Day Update Mon 8/1 – The Thunder have named a large squad for this one while the Scorchers are unchanged coming off their loss at the Adelaide Oval, which was their first defeat of the season.

The big consideration today is the threat of rain in Sydney. Several players hauled in the Heat v Hurricanes game on Sunday night – among them, Munro, Bartlett, Jordan, Walter, and Chaudhary. If you VCed anyone in that game who returned even decently, it’s time to have a serious think about whether to keep their points.

If you planned to captain a Scorchers pick, keep in mind that the rain could affect this one, game 1 of their double, in all sorts of ways. Targets could be cut down, bowling spells could be shortened, the wet conditions could neutralise spinners.

Keep an eye out for news about the weather closer to lockout. No rush to make the decision either way, but any sort of rain around makes a Perth captaincy a big gamble.

The last game of the round is Heat v Scorchers at The Gabba – another home game for Brisbane. Compare one rain-affected game, whose points have crucially already been banked, with a possibly rain-affected game yet to happen and your Hurricanes or Heat C/VC have safety on their side.

***

Scorchers

Rotation is the main concern re Scorchers bowlers during this busy period. Be prepared to not get a full double out of one or more of your Perth bowling picks.

Maybe you’re tempted by Ashton Agar ($94k) because his spot is safer. But we reckon he’s a fade. Since 2020, he’s only taken 3 wickets against Thunder & Heat at a combined strike rate of 46. As one chart in our Round 2 preview article reveals, spin is a very poor wicket taking option at Sydney Showground.

With that in mind, you’re looking for someone who will gun it in the games they do play. Last year, Lance Morris ($179k) took a couple of wickets each against Thunder (also at Sydney Showground) and Heat. He’s fresh off a 5-fer against the Strikers at Optus Stadium and fits the high ceiling profile.

Any Scorchers you already have are obviously a hold. Newly installed at the top of the order, Sam Whiteman ($65k) is worth a look at for this double given his role and value. If you don’t much care about form, Zak Crawley’s ($114k) massive underperformance of his breakeven in Round 6 makes a trade in ahead of Round 7 very appealing.

The fixtures have also landed splendidly for a captaincy play involving Aaron Hardie ($205k). You can VC a Hurricanes or Heat player and watch the action on Sunday. If they flop, an absolute gun in Hardie plays his first game on Monday. If you still have Renegades, they’re useful for looping this round.

Thunder

Thunder aren’t really essential until their Round 9 double – if you want to smash that Daniel Sams ($224k) piggybank to fund some doublers, that’s a good play.

If recent history is anything to go by, it’s even encouraged to trade out popular Thunder picks like Sams and Alex Hales ($119k). Both have appalling records against the Scorchers.

Up against his old team, there’s a case to keep Cam Bancroft ($153k) at least. He had a poor day out at Sydney Showground last game but across the three seasons before this one, he’s made 100 runs striking at 129 without being dismissed.

One Thunder pick who does quite well against Perth is captain Chris Green ($160k). His 5 wickets against them since 2020 have come at 22 and an economy of 6.94.

Despite the challenges for spin at Showground, Green has risen above. From 2020-23, he averaged 21 at this ground at a strike rate of 19.

We reckon he’s worth holding for this one.

Stars v Sixers

Sat 6/1, 7.15pm

MCG

Stars

Even with their doubles done for the season, the fixtures are a reason to hold your Stars this side of their Round 6 bye, assuming you haven’t traded them out already. Two of the Stars’ last three are home games at MCG, beginning on Saturday against the Sixers.

Add their form and the conditions to their (still hefty) residual ownership, and it makes sense to hold at least one of Glenn Maxwell ($230k), Beau Webster ($189k), or Marcus Stoinis ($92k). Maxwell is the standout choice.

But we reckon your other Stars are also okay to have for this run. MCG games this season have been low-scoring but Thomas Rogers ($120k) has emerged from them with scores of 22 and 42*. Hilton Cartwright ($105k) was bright in his 24 against the Scorchers here last month.

Joel Paris and Mark Steketee (both $92k), meanwhile, got a wicket each in the Stars’ last game. The former has 2 wickets in 2 games at the MCG this season.

There being no more doubles for the Stars this year, their picks certainly won’t gain massive ownership from here. Most will lose it.

As you can tell from the recap above, holding your non-Maxwell Stars is a fairly low ceiling play. You might also need the slots to trade in doublers.

No question, sell your Stars if needed. But if you can’t shift them easily, it’s not the worst run of games to have them for.

And you will have trouble shifting some of them if you targeted their Round 5 double at all. Paris, Steketee, and Stoinis are all five-figure prices now, while Rogers and Cartwright are in the low six figures.

Trading them out mostly won’t generate enough cash for a better replacement, unless you have a ton in the bank already. We just reckon it’s not the end of the world if you have to start them from here.

The only one who’s not worth holding on to at all is Sam Harper ($65k). He’s recently lost his opening spot and without the role or the fixtures, there’s no reason to keep him.

Unfortunately, he’s another Star on a five-figure price now, making him harder to shift. Benching is the only way out of this pickle.

Interestingly, quicks Scott Boland ($125k) and Nathan Coulter-Nile ($166k) have been named in the squad for this game. With Stars’ doubles done, they’re not a priority at the moment. But if you’re planning to trade in picks on singles in the future, this game is a good chance to scout this pair.

Check out our Draftstars BBL Stats Bible with projections for every BBL game!

Sixers

The Sixers’ only double long in the rear view mirror, most of their picks have by now very sparse ownership among the top Supercoaches. In the top 5%, Josh Philippe ($124k; 28%) and Jack Edwards ($173k; 14%) are the most owned.

Edwards has a decent role but doesn’t have the fixtures and his price is a pretty substantial commitment considering.

The Sixers’ last three games are Stars, Thunder, and Scorchers. Philippe didn’t do much against the first two earlier this season – scores of 19 and 11 – but his record against all three in the three seasons before this one is encouraging.

There’s a case to keep Philippe all the way until the end. But if you’re looking to shift him, there’s no time like the present. There are three good keepers on the double this round – Sam Billings, Josh Inglis, and Matthew Wade (fitness permitting). With their recent returns to the playing XI, Ben McDermott and Sam Whiteman are options too.

If you’re open to pre-gaming for the Thunder’s double in Round 9, Cam Bancroft is also on the table as a keeper, given his newly acquired DPP status.

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Heat v Hurricanes

Sun 7/1, 6.15pm

The Gabba

Heat

Two of the Round 7 doublers are in action on Sunday – against each other at Brisbane. At the Heat, there’s value in the batting.

Josh Brown ($108k) looks very attractive – an opener with two home games at a great price. Even at his explosive best last season, he didn’t have as high a ceiling as you might think; Brown has just one T20 fifty in 18 innings.

He has stirred into life just in time for this double, though, with scores of 39 and 43 in his last two BBL games. Be clear with your expectations from him – he’s here for a good time, not a long time. Anything on top of a rapid 30-40 runs is a bonus.

He’s not bowling but Nathan McSweeney ($139k) still has a great role as the #3. Made 73 against Thunder at The Gabba the other night and those things together look really appealing with a double of two home games.

There’s safety in Sam Billings ($121k) and captain Colin Munro ($150k), both of whom still have quite a bit of residual ownership. If you want to branch out, Matt Renshaw ($127k) is a POD play (3.8% at time of writing) and decent value.

It’s a different story with the bowlers though – they’re great, but are all quite pricey. Two home games is an excellent double so we don’t recommend going into it without any Heat bowling cover. If you can get to them, we like Paul Walter ($195k) and/or Xavier Bartlett ($201k).

‘Tall Paul’ is coming off a player of the match award at Coffs Harbour the other night. His all-round role makes him a great pick – bowling mostly through the BBL’s long middle overs, Walter often gets one over at the death as well. He’s also made unbeaten scores of 30 and 23 this season.

Bartlett, meanwhile, has taken at least one wicket in every game this season. He’s also got a high ceiling – two 3-fers already this year makes him a good shout for that 10-point bonus.

In the past three seasons, the Hurricanes are his second-favourite BBL opponent. You could see returns very quickly.

If you’re looking for reliability, you can’t go much wrong with the spinners Mitch Swepson ($146k) and Matthew Kuhnemann ($155k). Respectively, they have 8 and 7 wickets this season, at economies of 6.83 and 5.76.

They are excellent picks on form and, importantly, security of role. Swepson has bowled his full quota in every game except one and Kuhnemann’s averaging just over three overs a game.

They bowl often, they’re good shouts for economy rate bonus, and if you want more than one Heat bowler, we reckon the margins are in getting both, especially if you’re boosting.

Although he’s cheaper than Walter and Bartlett, Michael Neser ($148k) just hasn’t had the role. The most overs he’s bowled in a game this year is three, and he’s only done that once.

Hurricanes

Meanwhile, player values have seen a lot of churn at the Hurricanes. Mac Wright ($164k) has shown some good form at #3 and as a result, his price has soared. He’s still a decent pick in a double – and still quite the POD (3.5% at time of writing) – but not as great value now.

By contrast, most of the Hurricanes bowlers have bled a lot of value. This is handy ahead of a double if you plan to trade them in.

But maybe you’re not keen on Hurricanes at all. After all, the other two clubs on the double this round are first and second on the ladder.

Although it’s tough to make as strong a case for the Canes in a double of two away games – their win at a floundering Gades on 4 January was their first away win in the BBL in 10 games – it’s worth laying out three major ways to play Hobart’s double. Let’s start with a couple of approaches for this game specifically.

One, bank on the Hurricanes doing poorly and instead target Perth and Brisbane for trades. Start any Canes on your bench – there’s a good chance these are Ben McDermott ($102k) and/or Nikhil Chaudhary ($113k) – but don’t trade in any.

Don’t turn your team upside down for Hobart. Play the fixtures with what your have (helps that McDermott and Chaudhary are both in the XI and have had their moments) and spend your trades (and boosts) on picks from better clubs also on the double.

Two, pick one of the Canes bowlers and hope they return at The Gabba. Adelaide Oval has been a batting paradise so far in this year’s BBL and you may as well give up hope that your bowling picks will get anything out of that strip.

Granted, there have been a couple of high scores at Brisbane this season as well. But in four innings each, contrast the 32 wickets to fall at The Gabba with the 18 to tumble at Adelaide.

If you’re going down this road, the pick we like is Riley Meredith ($121k). We broke down his excellent record at Blundstone before; Brisbane is his second-favourite BBL venue since 2020.

Our BBL Supercoach Player Comparison dashboards help you set your choice of filters to find the best picks in BBL Supercoach – and now they’re available on a single page!

 

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