The Blues have lost Latrell Mitchell & Tom Trbojevic and the Maroons come in to the 2022 State of Origin series with two of the three Queensland teams around the top 4. It’s fair to say the teams are much closer going into this year’s series than previous years. We break down how both teams will look to score and their defensive frailties in our State of Origin Game 1 Preview.
For most rugby league fans though, it’s the time to forget about your NRL Supercoach or NRL Fantasy teams, your tipping competitions and enjoy the biggest spectacle in Australian sport. We’ve broken down some of the best value plays across try scorer & player performance markets as well as the $40,000 NRL Draftstars contest for the big game. As always, our content & data tools are free so if you enjoy what you see here, join our Discord and follow us on whichever social media platform you use!
— Wicky (@wickyai) June 5, 2022
Try Scorer Markets
Cam Murray First Try Scorer (FTS) @ $34 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Josh Papalii FTS@ $67 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Ben Hunt FTS @ $51 on Neds/Ladbrokes
Cam Munster Anytime Try Scorer (ATS) @ $6.50 on Sportsbet
James Tedesco ATS @ $2.80 on Sportsbet
Daly Cherry-Evans ATS @ $7.25 on Sportsbet
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui ATS @ $11 on Neds/Ladbrokes
State of Origin games generally tend to be lower scoring games. Especially games at Accor (previously ANZ Stadium) and the first game of the series. So even though we’ve tipped four ATS plays, it’s the FTS plays we’re really excited about in our State of Origin Preview below.
Cam Murray is starting on an edge for the Blues and the $34 on Neds is a standout value play. If you converted his historical strike rate at scoring the first try in NRL games to betting odds, it would be $16. Our model says his odds should be closer to $27. No other site has him at higher than $26.
Josh Papalii is the best try scoring middle forward in the game. We recently successfully tipped him to score a try in his 250th game at $8 odds and we’re going back to ‘Big Papa’ and tipping him at $67 odds to get over for the first try. If you converted his strike rate of scoring the first try to betting odds, it’d be $42. He’s $51 or less on every site. Needless to say, we love the $67 for him to score the first try. The $11 for him to score a try at any point in the match on Neds is also a great play.
Ben Hunt grows another leg when he plays Hooker for Queensland. He’s also currently the leader on the Dally M ladder for 2022. Queensland will look for him to provide impact early with Grant to come off the bench. Every other site has him priced at $41 or less, so we love the $51 on offer him to score the first try of this year’s State of Origin series.
James Tedesco has hit a purple patch of form for the Roosters in the last few weeks leading into the Origin series. Which is saying something given he’s arguably the best player in the game. Our model & his career stats suggest his odds should be closer to $2.30. Yes Origin games are traditionally lower scoring, but our model does take that into consideration. Most of our value plays are leaning towards Queensland, so if you’re a NSW fan the $2.80 on Sportsbet could be the way to go from our value plays!
Daly Cherry-Evans & Munster will both need to play to their full potential if Queensland are going to get a win in Game 1 in NSW. They are both priced significantly higher than what our model thinks their price should be, as well as their career strike rate at scoring a try in NRL games.
Tino Fa’asuamaleuai has been on fire in 2022. The Titans have been horrible, but you can’t blame big Tino for that. His historical try scoring strike rate converted to betting odds is only marginally worse than Papalii’s ($5). He won’t get as many minutes as he does for the Titans, but the $11 on offer on Neds is a great price for one of the best up and coming forwards in the NRL. The $67 for him to score the first try is also a great value play, however, there’s a chance he’s benched so we’ll hold off for now.
Player Of The Match Tips
Josh Papalii @ $51 on Sportsbet
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui @ $81 on Sportsbet
Brian To’o @ $67 on Sportsbet
Isaah Yeo @ $12 on Sportsbet
This is a highly subjective market and we thought it would be interesting to find the value after looking across all the bookies rather than just who is the most likely to win the medal. Historically, Australian representative players & halves or fullbacks were most likely to win the medal. Although it can be a tricky one to predict, it’s always an entertaining one to follow after full-time so we’ve included some analysis below in our State of Origin Preview.
Our best value play is Isaah Yeo @ $12 on Sportsbet. He’s currently 2nd on the Dally M Medal table for 2022, has taken over from Cam Murray and Jake Trbojevic as the best lock in the NRL & is playing for the all-conquering Panthers. If NSW win, we think Cleary, Tedesco or Yeo are the most likely to get the Player of the Match award. With Game 1 being played in NSW at Accor which is historically a lower scoring game, we think Yeo @ $12 is where the value lies.
Papalii & Tino are our favourite plays for this market. At $51 & $81 respectively, we think the odds are almost 2x what they should be. Both players are in great form, have the best chances of scoring a try from any of the middle forwards & will be the leaders for the Maroons forward pack. Aside from Munster, we genuinely think these two could be the next in line to get the award if Queensland can get up in a close game.
If you disagree with our thoughts above and think NSW can start the series strong in Game 1 then Brian To’o is a great shout @ $67. Playing on the right wing outside of Kotoni Staggs can do wonders for a winger, as you can see by Selwyn Cobbo’s rise for the Broncos in 2022. A try would help his chances but we think the high likelihood of him wracking up 200+ metres means he could be a chance if NSW win in a close game.
Player Performance Markets
Felise Kaufusi under 40.5 Player Performance Points on TAB
We’ve created a free resource for you to check out historical stats and player performance scores. You can check it out here.
While Kaufusi has been a defensive beast in previous Origin games, Jeremiah Nanai is on the bench for Queensland we think Kaufusi is likely to play around 60-70 minutes rather than the full 80. He’s also only hit over 40 points this season when there has been extra time or he’s scored a try. We think he’s likely to only get base stats (tackles & run metres) and if you agree he won’t play the full 80 minutes, the under 40.5 PP points play on TAB is the way to go.
We’ve done an in-depth NRL Draftstars preview for beginners with value players, fade options & strategic advice for Game 1 of State of Origin. There’s a $40,000 prize pool in the main contest so if you’re an avid NRL Supercoach or NRL Fantasy, this is the time to give it a crack!
18+ Gamble Responsibly