After an exciting start to the NRL season in 2022, it’s time for State of Origin. This should be one of the closest series’ in recent years, with NSW missing a couple of stars and most of Queensland’s stars being in great form leading into this year’s Origin series. If you’ve played NRL Fantasy or NRL Supercoach, you’ll be across the concept of Fantasy Sports. Draftstars, Australia’s largest daily fantasy sports (DFS) company, have a $40,000 prize pool in their contest for Game 1 of this year’s State of Origin series.

The entry fee for the main contest is $15 per team and 1st prize will be at least $3,915 (this increases if there are more entries than expected). The data used for NRL Draftstars & their scoring system is similar to NRL Fantasy. The general concept of looking for value picks so you can choose the highest possible scoring team is also the same. We’ll be aiming to cover some of the basic DFS strategy, value players & fade options (who you should leave out) in our NRL Draftstars State of Origin Preview article. You can also use our projected scores and advanced stats in our free NRL Draftstars Stats Bible.

Strategy

The most important thing to note in this contest is that with ~3000 entries expected for this $40,000 contest, having a couple of unique picks will be crucial. Especially if you’re new to DFS, make sure you include a couple of ‘gut feel’ picks. It can be hard to predict how popular players can be before the game starts, but one way to do this could be to pick a bench player you think will get more minutes than most expect and is priced well. Lindsay Collins at $9,950 stands out as a potential example in this contest.

Most pundits expect this to be a close, hard-fought battle through the middle. Most games at Accor (previously ANZ Stadium) tend to be lower scoring than games at Suncorp & especially given that it’s the first game in the series, we agree with most people and think there may only be 5 or 6 tries scored. This means that picking the right forwards will be crucial. We’ve included some of our favourite value players & players to leave out (fade options) below.

After you’ve picked your ‘value’ options, it’s also important to think about who can deliver the most up-side. ‘Ceiling range’ is the average of each player’s 3 highest DFS scores in NRL games in 2022. Just be wary of players who will be playing in different roles to their club sides and will get significantly less minutes. This includes Harry Grant, Ryan Matterson & Reuben Cotter from the screenshot below.

Correlation is an important aspect of picking your ideal DFS team. A simple way of applying this can be to pick backs from the same team. Eg if you think NSW will win and their backs seem good value, then picking their halves & outside backs in the same team makes sense as the halves/fullback are likely to supply try assists to their centres or wingers.

Value Players

Isaah Yeo is currently 2nd on the Dally M leaderboard, has overtaken Cam Murray & Jake Trbojevic as the best lock in the game & is arguably Penrith’s most valuable player after Nathan Cleary. Priced at less than $15k, we think he’s the big minute forward in the NSW pack and is justifiably rated 10/10 in our value ratings. Almost a must-have.

Payne Haas has been in the media for all the wrong reasons recently but for similar reasons to Yeo, Haas is a standout pick at $15,430. Arguably the best young prop in the game, Haas will want to shut the critics up and we know he can get through a mountain of work. He won’t get his 65+ minutes as he does in NRL games, but Haas likely only needs around 50 minutes to be a great value DFS pick.

Brian To’o at $11, 310 is an absolute steal. If the game script goes according to what most experts think and it’s a low scoring grind, To’o should wrack up 200+ run metres & outside a red-hot Kotoni Staggs, it wouldn’t be a big surprise for him to score a try. He’s the safest pick in the outside backs with his run metres & tackle break counts being ultra impressive and at that price we think he’s a great pick to build your team around.

Fade Options

Ben Hunt is leading the Dally Ms in 2022 and has been in impressive form in 2022. But this is where thinking about the roles of players in Origin is crucial. With Harry Grant on the bench, it’s unlikely Hunt gets more than 50 minutes. We have him projected for 46 points but realistically, if he gets 45-50 minutes, he may struggle to even crack 40 points unless he’s involved in an attacking play. At $18k, we think he’s the perfect option to leave out of your team (fade).

Jack Wighton has been in good form for the Raiders but most pundits had Staggs & Crichton starting in the centres & Hynes in the utility position for the Blues. So Wighton starting in Latrell Mitchell’s left centre spot was a surprise to say the least. At $13,620 we think staying away from Wighton could be a great move, especially with the potential for him to be benched after 50-60 minutes for Crichton if NSW do fall behind and coach Fittler wants to bring a fresh man off the bench.

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