Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 3 of the 2024 NRL season.
Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.
Eels v Sea Eagles
Sun 24/3, 4.05pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Josh Aloiai FTS @ $61 on Bet Right + on Topsport & LTS @ $51 widely available
Anytime Try Scorer – Reuben Garrick ATS @ $3.90 on Bet365
Game Day Pick – Daly Cherry-Evans ATS @ $5.50 on Pointsbet
Wicky Preview Sun 24/3 – Josh Aloiai is $58 for FTS on Topsport and widely available at $51 for LTS which we still like. He’s a strong ball runner and scores a try around every 9 games. For context – the elite middle forwards are around every 5 games so he’s mid tier. We generally love the Manly right edge running at the Eels left which has been destroyed in the first 2 rounds. A rookie at centre and Harper playing out of position on the wing this time on the Eels’ left. Garrick is now $3.25 on Dabble and TAB – shows how good the $3.90 was on Bet365 earlier in the week!
We’ve added Cherry-Evans as our game day pick. He’ll also will be running at the Eels’ left and is $5.50 on Pointsbet. He scores a try ever 4.15 games and isn’t over $5 on any other bookie on our Premium OCT.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day. We LOVE a match up for this game so make sure you get on there to see our picks for this one. We had a system multi with Tino, Finefuiaki and Hazelton which paid almost $6 with the last two getting up. Unfortunately Tino did his ACL but it’s been good fun mixing it up with these picks!
Knights v Storm
Sun 24/3, 6.15 pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Eli Katoa FTS & LTS @ $29 on Bet365
Leo Thompson FTS & LTS @ $67 on Pointsbet
Game Day Pick – Dane Gagai ATS @ $4.10 on Sportsbet
Wicky Preview Sun 24/3 – We’ve added Gagai at $4.10 as our game day pick on Sportsbet. He’s $3.90 on Neds and 365 also. Our model has him at $3.40. This Storm side is missing Munster, Hughes, NAS & Welch. We think this is a great price for Gagai who’s been strong so far in 2024. Leo Thompson is $67 for FTS & LTS on Bet365 which we still love. The Storm pack looks really weak today with no Welch and NAS. Eli Katoa is still $29 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. He’ll miss Hughes’ service on the right edge but he’ll be running at Lucas or KPP on the Knights’ left with Cogger likely defending next to them so that’s in his favour as a matchup!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Panthers v Broncos
Thu 21/3, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Billy Walters FTS @ $54 on Topsport
Corey Jensen FTS & LTS @ $101 on Bet365 & TAB
Kobe Hetherington FTS2H @ $67 on Bet Right, Pointsbet & TAB
Anytime Try Scorer – Nathan Cleary ATS @ $4.50 on Neds
Game Day Pick – Billy Walters LTS @ $51 on Sportsbet + Dabble
Wicky Preview Thu 21/3 – We’ve added Billy Walters LTS @ $51 on SB & Dabble as our game day pick. This price wasn’t available on Wednesday evening when we wrote the article but it is now. He loves a scoot from dummy half and with the Panthers conceding tries to Joey Lussick and Hopgood through the middle + this likely being a close game AND Fisher-Harris being out, we love Walters to crash over. He’s still widely available at $51 for FTS. Nathan Cleary went from 4.50 to $3.10 on Neds for ATS! Partly this was the Haas (being ruled out) news but it also shows how good the $4.50 was early in the week. He’s now $4 at best on 365 which we still like.
Jensen is still $101 for FTS & LTS on 365. Honestly – this pick is all about the price. And the points we made above re the Panthers middle. With Haas and Reynolds missing and the Panthers playing at home – of course the Panthers are expected to win. But the Broncos will be fired up to get revenge for their GF loss. It’s also why we love Kobe Hetherington FTS2H @ $67 (only available on Betr now). He’ll get more minutes now with Haas being ruled out and even though he’s only scored 3 tries in 57 games, we love his running style and think he can crash over against a weakened Panthers pack.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.
Warriors v Raiders
Fri 22/3, 6pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Josh Papalii FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet Right + other bookies
Joseph Tapine FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet365
Anytime Try Scorer – Jordan Rapana ATS @ $3.75 on Bet365
Game Day Pick – Jamal Fogarty 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @ $12.50 on Neds
Wicky Preview Fri 22/3 – Josh Papalii is available at $61 FTS on Sportsbet atm! He’s widely available at $51 for LTS. Elite try scoring middle looking fit early in 2024 – love this matchup. Tapine is now $51 for FTS & LTS on most bookies. This is still OK but it shows the importance of getting on Wednesday evenings when we drop this article. Rapana is still $3.75 on Bet365. He was filling in on the wing early in Round 1 and scored there. Round 2 – he was backing up in the middle of the field and scored off an offload. The Raiders are 2-0 and full of confidence, we’re excited to see how Rapana goes today! 10% higher on 365 than the next best bookie too.
Our game day pick is Jamal Fogarty @ $12.50 to score 1st, 2nd or 3rd on Neds. He can dummy and go and also backup for tries. The Warriors will be desperate but they’re missing Wayde Egan again – we think this is a good price for Fogarty.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!
Roosters v Rabbitohs
Fri 22/3, 8pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Davvy Moale FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet Right & on Dabble
Victor Radley FTS @ $51 on Bet Right & LTS @ $46 on Sportsbet
Jacob Host FTS @ $41 on Topsport
Anytime Try Scorer – Jack Wighton ATS @ $3.75 on Bet Right
Game Day Pick – Siliva Havili FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet Right
Wicky Preview Fri 22/3 – We’ve added Havili at $51 for FTS & LTS on Bet Right. He was tipped to our Premium members as soon as the news broke he’s set to start for Cook. We’re hoping he starts at hooker and gets a 2nd stint in the middle of the field. He scored the first try in the 2nd half last weekend. Wighton is $3.65 still on Bet Right and $3.75 on Neds now. We think with Ilias dropped and Wighton in on the left edge for the Rabbitohs – that’s where the Rabbits will go in attack. Wighton’s a known runner and not the best passer. So when Walker or Trell don’t cut him out (to go to AJ), we think he’ll have a crack and hopefully he gets over!
Jacob Host should be the right edge 2nd rower – they don’t get as much ball on that side but they’re usually more likely to score for the Rabbitohs than the left edge 2nd rower. He’s now $34 FTS widely – which is OK but the $41s was a clear value pick. Moale is still $67 for FTS & LTS on Dabble – he scored a try last week as well, we love this price for him. Radley is $51 for FTS on Betr and $51 for LTS on Sportsbet. We hit him at $71s for LTS in Round 1 when he finished the game on the right edge! He spent time on the edge last week as well – we love the price for Radley here.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Join Wicky’s NRL Fantasy League!
Bulldogs v Titans
Sat 23/3, 3pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Tanah Boyd FTS @ $41 on Bet Right & Neds
Anytime Try Scorer – Tino Faasuamaleaui ATS @ $7 on Sportsbet
Game Day Pick – Keano Kini FTS @ $19 on Bet Right & LTS @ $17 on Bet365
Wicky Preview Sat 23/3 – Tino has made it to game day still at $7 to score anytime on Sportsbet. He scores a try every 4.8 games. He’s $6 or less on every other bookie. He’s playing the Bulldogs who scored the MOST tries to middle forwards in 2023 and conceded two to Cartwright when he was playing in the middle in Round 1 this season. LOVE this play.
Honestly there isn’t much value elsewhere in this game. Boyd is still $41 on Neds for FTS which we love. We added Kini at $19 FTS and $17 LTS – he’s got a good running game and with two weaker teams playing in this one it’ll be a bit of a lottery and he seems slightly higher priced than he should be.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Join Wicky’s NRL Supercoach League!
Dragons v Cowboys
Sat 23/3, 5:30 pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Jack de Belin FTS @ $61 on Bet Right
Griffin Neame FTS2H @ $41 on Bet Right, TAB & Pointsbet (He scored BEFORE half time ffs!)
Anytime Try Scorer – Valentine Holmes ATS @ $3.20 on Neds (This won)
Game Day Pick – Raymond Faitala-Mariner FTS @ $51 & $9 on Neds
Wicky Preview Sat 23/3 – Raymond Faitala-Mariner has been named to start with Jaydn Su’A ruled out. He’s playing on the edge and is roughly 1.5x higher than what he should be. A ridiculous price which we got on yesterday with our Premium members but it’s somehow survived till game day! Val Holmes is $3.25 on Neds to score anytime. Our model and his career strike rate both sit around $2.50 and most sites have him around $2.80. He had a shocker last week – we’re backing him in to rebound and score at a juicy price today.
Jack de Belin is $54 at Topsport for FTS. This price is marginal at best, but the Cowboys did concede two tries to Adam Elliott early in the game last week! So we still think it’s worth taking. The Elliott tries won our Premium members 3 tips – at $34, $36 and $81! Hopefully JDB can get up for us today. We think the Cows middle could be weaker than usual with Taumalolo not having great lateral movement and Hess missing from the middle and their pack overall weaker as well missing Leilua (moved to the Dragons) and Luki (injured).
Griffin Neame FTS2H @ $41 has survived till game day! He’s done this one in every 15 games in his NRL career and even did it in the post season Internationals late last year! Love this play against the Dragons which we think are clearly a weaker team.
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!
West Tigers v Sharks
Sat 16/3, 7.35 pm
Try Scorer Value Tips
Blayke Brailey FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet Right + on Dabble
Oregon Kaufusi FTS & $56 & LTS @ $61 on Sportsbet
Anytime Try Scorer – Sione Katoa ATS @ $2.05 on Bet365
Game Day Pick – Stefano Utoikamanu FTS & LTS @ $51 on Pointsbet & Dabble
Wicky Preview Sat 23/3 – Katoa is $1.90 on Neds to score anytime now but we still love it compared to our model’s $1.64 price for him and up against the Tigers – it just needs one Hynes cut out pass or Ramien flick pass against a weak outfit to get a win for us here!
We’ve added Utoikamanu FTS & LTS @ $51 as our game day pick. He scores FTS one in every 27 games and LTS one in every 18 games. And remember, he hasn’t even started in every game! The Sharks are definitely the better outfit, but we love these Utoikamanu prices.
Blayke Brailey is widely available for $41 for FTS and is now $46 on Sportsbet for LTS. Oregon Kaufusi is widely available at $51 for FTS & LTS. We still love both picks – if the game goes as most of us expect, we’re backing these guys in to hopefully score first or last at juicy prices!
Same Game Multi
We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.
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