Welcome to Wicky’s Punter’s Preview for Round 2 of the 2024 NRL season.

Our Discord, Punter’s Preview Article & Podcast & Odds Comparison Tool (OCT) are all free to check out through our Linktree.

Sea Eagles v Roosters

Sun 17/3, 4.05pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Taniela Paseka FTS & LTS @ $67 on Bet Right

Karl Lawton LTS @ $67 on Bet365

Anytime Tryscorer Pick – Haumole Olakau’atu ATS @ $4.20 on Sportsbet

Game Day Pick – Victor Radley FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365

Wicky Preview Sun 17/3 – We’ve added Olakau’atu at $4.20 ATS – our model’s got him at $3.36 and he’s coming off scoring in Round 1 as well. On Cherry-Evans’ right edge, we love the pick and the price here. Our game day pick is Victor Radley FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365. He scored last in Round 1 at $71 for our Premium members. His strike rate is 1 in 40 roughly for FTS and LTS throughout his career. We think the Roosters have an edge in the forwards and with rain expected today – we think the game will be played through the middle too.

Paseka is now $61 for FTS & LTS on Pointsbet. We still like this price. He’s a beast of a ball runner and because of the rain, we think there’ll definitely be opportunities for him to crash over today. Lawton is $41 or less on most bookies, we love the $67 for LTS on Bet365. If Croker plays most of the game as he did in Round 1, Lawton should get 10-20 minutes towards the end and could go from dummy half or follow through off a break late in the game.

Same Game Multi

We nailed BOTH our same game multis paying $10 and $11 for the Vegas Games in Round 1. We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel!

Dolphins v Dragons

Sun 17/3, 6.15 pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Isaiya Katoa 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $16 on Neds

Jesse Bromwich LTS @ $91 on Sportsbet

Anytime Tryscorer Pick – Euan Aitken @ $5 on Bet Right

Game Day Pick – Kodi Nikorima FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365

Wicky Preview Sun 17/3 – We’ve added Kodi Nikorima FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365 as our game day pick. He should be in the late 20s at most. The other thing that helps – the Dolphins side has a few changes so we think he’ll be more likely to run the ball rather than having fluent attacking plays. And the Dragons beat up on a Titans side missing a few stars. But this game will be highly unpredictable – we love Nikorima at $34 to strike first or last!

Isaiya Katoa is still $15 for 1st, 2nd or 3rd try. We love this price. He regains his spot in the halves and we like his running game. Clearly higher priced on Neds than other bookies. Jesse Bromwich is still $91 for LTS on Sportsbet. Marshall-King is great at putting middle forwards over and in such an unpredictable game, we love the price here for Jesse to go over late. Aitken is still $4.80 on Sportsbet to score anytime – he’s $4.50 or less everywhere else. Against his old side, we’re backing him to crash over. We all know he prefers running over passing!

Same Game Multi

We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.

Broncos v Rabbitohs

Thu 14/3, 8pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Tevita Tatola FTS @ $91 on Sportsbet, LTS @ $91 on Bet Right

Jordan Riki FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365

Davvy Moale FTS2H @ $81 on Sportsbet

Anytime Tryscorer Pick – Cameron Murray ATS @ $8.75 on Sportsbet

Game Day Pick – Lachlan Ilias FTS & LTS @ $51 on Bet365

Wicky Update Thu 14/3, 4pm – We’ve added Ilias at $51 for FTS & LTS. Yes the Broncos are deserved favourites and Souths have a few injuries. And he may not be the best performing half in the NRL. But he does have a decent running game and most bookies have him around $34-41. We love the value at $51.

Cam Murray scores a try one in every 4.93 NRL games. Elite try scoring rate for a middle forward. What makes our ATS pick even better? He’s now $9.75 on Sportsbet! And there is mail he could be spending time on the edge (Duncan moving to lock, Chee-Kam in the 19 but currently not in the 17). The $9.75 then becomes an incredible price.

Riki is still available at $34 for FTS & LTS on 365. He’s next to Adam Reynolds on the Broncos’ right edge – he’s either side of $20 on most sites, $34 is great value. Tatola is $67-71 for FTS & LTS on Sportsbet and a few other bookies, we wouldn’t take him at $61 or lower. Moale is a beast of a ball runner – he’s still $81 on Sportsbet for FTS2H.

Same Game Multi

We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.

Sharks v Bulldogs

Fri 15/3, 6pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Toby Rudolf FTS @ $61 on Bet Right & on Topsport + LTS @ $61 on Sportsbet

Oregon Kaufusi FTS @ $61 on Bet Right & LTS @ $71 on Sportsbet

Anytime Tryscorer Pick – Jacob Kiraz ATS @ $4.75 on Neds

Game Day Pick – Jacob Preston FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365

Wicky Preview Fri 15/3 – Our game day pick is Jacob Preston FTS & LTS @ $34 on Bet365. He’s an excellent hole runner and scored FTS twice in his rookie season in 2023. We think the Sharks are the better side for sure but with rain expected in Sydney – we think this game will be closer than most people think and the ball may not get out to the edges for tries as often. Jacob Kiraz is now $5 to score anytime on Neds. There’s a chance he plays all or part of the game on the wing, even though he’s named in the centres. Tracey’s named on the wing – he could play centre or Xerri who had a great preseason could come in and play centre with Kiraz to play wing.

For our higher odds plays – pretty clear why we love them. The Bulldogs conceded two tries to Bryce Cartwright last weekend either side of half-time. The Dogs pack is small and honestly, not that impressive. They conceded the most tries through the middle of any team in 2023. We love Rudolf and Kaufusi to storm through the middle. Rudolf is $54 for FTS on Topsport & $51 on Bet Right for LTS. Oregon Kaufusi is $61 and $71 on Sportsbet for FTS and LTS respectively.

Same Game Multi

We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.

Panthers v Eels

Fri 15/3, 8pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Shaun Lane 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer @ $15 on Neds

J’maine Hopgood FTS + LTS @ $67 on Bet365

Anytime Tryscorer Pick – Nathan Cleary ATS @ $5 on Neds

Game Day Pick – James Fisher-Harris 1st or 2nd try @ $34 on Sportsbet

Wicky Preview Fri 15/3 – Nathan Cleary was on a try scoring streak including the NRL Finals & World Club Challenge and he was close to scoring again last week! We love the $5 on offer today – for context, he scores every 3.48 games, our model odds for him today are $4.23 and most bookies have him at $3.70 or less! Clear value. Our game day pick, Fisher-Harris at $34 to score the first or second try is purely based on the price. The Panthers scored 0 points last weekend and we think they’ll try to go through the middle with Mitch Kenny back at hooker.

Shaun Lane is still $15 to score the 1st, 2nd or 3rd try on Neds. This pick was due to the price but with Mitch Moses potentially still playing injured, we think Dylan Brown may get more ball and Lane is a good hole runner as well. Hopgood comes up against his old side and is still $61 for LTS on Bet Right which we still like. He’s $51 at best on multiple bookies, honestly we don’t love the price but it’s worth a dabble to back him with us if you’ve missed the $67 earlier in the week!

Same Game Multi

We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.

Raiders v West Tigers

Sat 16/3, 3pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Stefano Utoikamanu FTS @ $51 on Betr & LTS @ $46 on Sportsbet

Anytime Tryscorer Pick – Sebastian Kris @ $3.3 on Bet365

Game Day Pick – Jordan Rapana ATS @ $2.70 on Bet365

Wicky Preview Sat 16/3 – We used Rapana as one of the players in our 2/3 ain’t bad custom market this week. The reasoning was – he spent the end of the game on the wing last week. He’s already good odds compared to our model, so we like the play for 2 reasons! Seb Kris should be $2.44-2.67 according to his career strike rate and our model. He’s still $3.25 on Bet365 which we love.

Stefano Utoikamanu has scored the first try one in every 27 NRL games he’s played. The last try one in every 18 NRL games. Still early in his career – he’s an elite middle forward try scorer. He’s now $44 at best for FTS on Topsport and $51 at best for LTS on Sportsbet.

Same Game Multi

We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.

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Cowboys v Knights

Sat 16/3, 5:30 pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Kai Pearce-Paul FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365

Jacob Saifiti FTS @ $71 on Topsport + LTS @ $71 on Bet Right

Jackson Hastings FTS @ $48 on Topsport

Anytime Tryscorer Pick – Kai Pearce-Paul ATS @ $6 on Bet365

Game Day Pick – Leo Thompson FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365

Wicky Preview Sat 16/3 – We’ve added Leo Thompson FTS & LTS @ $81 on Bet365 as our game day pick. Mainly because of the price but he was also excellent in the post season games late last year – we think he’ll have a standout season and can’t say no to the value here! Pearce-Paul is still $6 for ATS and $41 for FTS & LTS. He’s on Lachy Fitzgibbon’s left edge, which Ponga favours as well. And he’s a dynamic ball runner. This play is going to be good fun to follow!

Jacob Saifiti is still $67 FTS on Dabble & Betr, $67 for LTS on Dabble. He’s scored the first try one in every 35 NRL games he’s played in and that doesn’t even take into consideration he’s spent a big % of his career starting from the bench! Love the price here.

Hastings is still widely $41 across most bookies – he scored a try last week, we still like this price for him.

Same Game Multi

We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.

Want to know how to get the most out of our punter’s preview & odds comparison tool? Check out this article that breaks down some of the key words we use and how to make it work for you!

Storm v Warriors

Sat 16/3, 7.35 pm

Try Scorer Value Tips

Shaun Johnson FTS @ $34 on Bet Right + LTS @ $31 on Dabble

Mitchell Barnett LTS @ $67 on Pointsbet

Kurt Capewell FTS & LTS @ $41 on Bet365

Anytime Tryscorer Pick – Shaun Johnson ATS @ $5.50 on Topsport + Dabble

Game Day Pick – Mitchell Barnett FTS @ $67 on Betr

Wicky Preview Sat 16/3 – We’ve added Barnett at $67 on Barnett for FTS, he’s also $61 for Bet Right incase the $67s is gone by the time you read this! He scored a try in the preseason and has generally looked good in the last 12 months for the Warriors – he’s widely available for $51 for LTS which we think is OK still.

Shaun Johnson is our ATS pick for the game. He’ll be opposite Jonah Pezet and Joe Chan. He’s scored a try one in every 3.61 games, even though he’s up against the Storm – the fact that he’s running at the Storm’s weaker edge and we think the Wahs will bounce back in Round 2 – we love the $5.50!

Kurt Capewell is $41 for FTS & LTS on Bet365. Shaun Johnson is $34 for FTS on Bet Right and Topsport, LTS @ $31 on Dabble. We love these prices but also, as we mentioned above, these guys are both running at the Pezet + Chan edge.

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Same Game Multi

We’ll release the SGM for this game our free Discord channel on game day.

Want to know more about how we built our NRL try scorer models? Check out our explainer article here. Remember the model odds are only a guide to finding the best value first try scorer and anytime try scorer value plays!

If you want to follow more of our NRL analysis throughout the season or any of our other work at Wicky, please reach out via email or on social media.

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