Originally written by Jacob Winn in the TryPod NRL Tips Forum on 10/03/2017
📰 Is it easy to make money betting? 🤬 NO. Why do they keep building casinos in Vegas? Coz the house always wins. Well, not always, but about 98% of punters lose more than they win! 98%!
How can we be in that 2%? Well, there are A LOT of things we need to know and do. Making POSITIVE EXPECTED VALUE (+ EV) picks is a huge part, and this forum is here to help us find them.
+EV ain’t a sure winner! There is no such thing, not even TryPod 2017 NRL Tips! +EV is a pick that in the long run wins at a higher % than the odds reflect to get you over the bookie margins and into POSITIVE territory.
If you bet lines (avg price $1.92) you need to hit 52.1% to BREAK EVEN. Over 52.1% = +EV!
Pod picks all time= 558-373 = 60% = +EV!
Pod 2017 NRL picks = 10-0 = 100% = +EV!
I repeat, NOT ALL +EV PICKS WIN! That’s why we need 💸MONEY MANAGEMENT 💸
I can give you $3 odds a coin will land heads (clearly +EV for you) but if we keep playing double or nothing until I say stop, I will win. Manage that money!
PLEASE DON’T PUT THE FARM ON EVERY POD PICK THIS WEEKEND! The odds might be in your favour but anything can happen, it’s 🤬ing sport lads.
When we talk about BANKROLL, that is not all the money you have! Bankroll is all the money you can afford/are willing to LOSE on betting this Season. The pod suggests taking our BEST BETS with 2-3% of your Bankroll. Can afford to lose $1000 in 6 months? Place $20-$30 per game.
HOW ELSE TO BOOST YOUR BANKROLL?
PROMOS – play every +EV promo you can! (Cash or bonus back, bonus winnings, multi bonus)
SHOP AROUND – play the BEST line or price available every time!
DISCIPLINE – On Bet SIZE & BET SELECTION. You will lose 3 in a row – don’t increase your bet size coz you’re due! You may lose 7! Also don’t bet some 💩 like Darts or the last race at Thargomindah coz you had a bad day and it’s the last thing on! Need that bank available for the next +EV opportunity!
Punting should be FUN. If it’s not, take a break and always know support is available.
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